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Should I throw in the towel after being in the negative for 10 years?

  • #41
  • Sep 25, 2010 5:15am Sep 25, 2010 5:15am
I am sure that you do not really want to throw the towel After 10 years of trading and really being deeply into the matter, you cannot really say .. hey guys from now on I will beginning with collectin stamps. We are all a little bit addicted to trading, aren't we ?

BTW I am not really profitabel for myself .... I am really sad at that, but I decide for the moment to go on struggeling for profitability
  • #42
  • Sep 25, 2010 5:16am Sep 25, 2010 5:16am
Quoting sergiu
You keep repeating that "the market retraces most of the time", like somehow there is an edge in that. I will actually say that the market retraces all the time.
With all due respect, Sir, that knowledge is the edge! http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/dollar.gif http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/pound.gif http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/euro.gif http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/yen.gif
  • #43
  • Sep 25, 2010 4:10pm Sep 25, 2010 4:10pm
If a first year medical student attempts to do a liver surgery, he will fail miserably.

After studying for 10 hours a day for next 5 years and then working as resident/senior resident doctor (part of training) for next 5 years, he becomes a fully trained doctor in 10 years.

If he do same surgery after 10 years, he will get success.

What has changed? Person has remain same, his brain has adapted to the learning.

Are you putting immense hard work in making journals, revising trades, forming out patterns?

Are you correctly 'reading' the market?

If you are a discretionary trader, the only way to become successful is to do adopt similar approach what doctor, engineer or any other professional do- Learn, memorize, revise, make notes, form out patterns, feel the markets.
  • #44
  • Sep 25, 2010 6:49pm Sep 25, 2010 6:49pm
Quoting kingfisher
If you are a discretionary trader, the only way to become successful is to do adopt similar approach what doctor, engineer or any other professional do- Learn, memorize, revise, make notes, form out patterns, feel the markets.
i've said it before, but the 'doctor' analogy that gets tossed around is terrible. doctors / 'professionals' don't sit in a room for 10 years trying to re-invent the wheel. they spend 10 years of dedicated productive study lead by people who know what they are doing. however, without any other option then yes your suggestion is about the best one can do.

i hate the doctor analogy.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #45
  • Sep 26, 2010 5:09am Sep 26, 2010 5:09am
Quote
i've said it before, but the 'doctor' analogy that gets tossed around is terrible. doctors / 'professionals' don't sit in a room for 10 years trying to re-invent the wheel. they spend 10 years of dedicated productive study lead by people who know what they are doing. however, without any other option then yes your suggestion is about the best one can do.

i hate the doctor analogy.

I agree. Doctors get guidance. This is how society structure is created- Doctors, engineers, accountants or any other profession gets a structured guidance and syllabus is defined well in advance.

Society will never ever put trading as a legitimate profession and hence never ever there will be a structured guidance available to new traders.

Learning to trade is not different from learning any other profession. Neurons and synapses inside the brain undergo a change so that brain adapts to new learning.

This is a fundamental reason why so few traders make the cut- A trader without any guidance is on its own and eventually, all the failed traders move on to other professions where guidance and structured training is available so as to earn their bread and butter.
  • #46
  • Sep 26, 2010 5:39am Sep 26, 2010 5:39am
yup. that was probably the best way to phrase what i was trying to say. spot on.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #47
  • Edited 7:53am Sep 26, 2010 7:40am | Edited 7:53am
If you have not made profit in 10 years try this :-
Trade based on candle colours.
First prove to yourself how often candles close green or red.
open up a chart of your chosen pair and timeframe.
go back in time as far as you want and count the number of red then green candles.
work out the ratio of red to green.
my calculations on eur/usd 5 minute 50/50 and weekly 56/44.
As you notice this is regardless of trend,going with the trend makes your candles larger.

Now limit your losses with stops.

average true range of 1 hour candle on eur/usd around 27pips so say 10 pip stop.
risk /reward using this formulae is 2.7/1 based on hourly candles and exiting on close.

As long as you stick with same colour candle your win /loss should be around 50/50.
But your losers can't be more than 10 pips.
over long run exiting on close of hourly candle you should average 27 pips on your winners.

If you want to make your profits larger still go with the trend.

Can i add the short trade you posted may have been successful but it was against a strong uptrend.That was a down day but look if you stuck with green candles you could still have some profitable trades even on strong down day.
longer term over past weeks going with green candles would have been more profitable.
And will be until you see more than a 50% retrace of the most recent leg up.

If you lost money for 10 years I would like to see you posting profitable trades.
The least this method will do is garantee some winning trades up to you to make winners bigger than losers.

Golden rule whatever you do dont change your mind (stick with green or red)

Above any daily candle open go for green.
Below go for red.

If you dont stick to one colour for the day slap yourself.
if you dont stick to one colour again get a friend to slap you
do it again insult a very large bloke in the pub ( big slap)
If you do it again admit defeat throw in the towel admit you have no discipline.

Sincerely wish you the best of luck
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #48
  • Sep 26, 2010 8:22am Sep 26, 2010 8:22am
No point quiting, unless you can find something else to fill in your spare time which is more fun / profitable ??

BUT you should realize, everything you've tried does not work you should stop repeating those mistakes, start from fresh knowing this and just keep trying new things to something does work.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #49
  • Sep 26, 2010 1:09pm Sep 26, 2010 1:09pm
Quoting paul1
If you have not made profit in 10 years try this :-
Trade based on candle colours.
First prove to yourself how often candles close green or red.
open up a chart of your chosen pair and timeframe.
go back in time as far as you want and count the number of red then green candles.
work out the ratio of red to green.
my calculations on eur/usd 5 minute 50/50 and weekly 56/44.
As you notice this is regardless of trend,going with the trend makes your candles larger.

Now limit your losses with stops.

average true range of 1 hour candle on eur/usd around...
I'd certainly demo trade your super simple system. Sounds very interesting.

I am also working on a new system...let's see how things come out...Cheers.
  • #50
  • Sep 27, 2010 1:59am Sep 27, 2010 1:59am
I am new to Forex, you may or may not take my suggestion seriously.

I would suggest to go with a manager, track his transactions for about a year or two and analyse which strategies actually worked. He makes money no problem at least your profit is not negative anymore.

This is how I am thinking to start.
  • #51
  • Sep 28, 2010 10:01am Sep 28, 2010 10:01am
I am going to tell you the most simplest and most effective solution:

You speak your mother language with subconscious competence. In a fraction of second, you can speak sentences. When you were born, you had no idea about what alphabets were.

Use Google and search for this answer:

How did you became an expert in language which you can speak with subconscious competence?

Subconscious competence is a highest form of competency where your brain gives you an answer in a fraction of second due to the intense training it has gone through.

Take a step back and find out the greatest secret in life- How brain adapts and learn a skill?
  • #52
  • Sep 28, 2010 11:37am Sep 28, 2010 11:37am
Quoting kingfisher
I am going to tell you the most simplest and most effective solution:

You speak your mother language with subconscious competence. In a fraction of second, you can speak sentences. When you were born, you had no idea about what alphabets were.

Use Google and search for this answer:

How did you became an expert in language which you can speak with subconscious competence?

Subconscious competence is a highest form of competency where your brain gives you an answer in a fraction of second due to the intense training it has gone through.

Take a...
I understand your point. However, using language as a simile doesn't work. The greatest linguist ever, along with other great ones, believe our brains are hard-wired for language. You can't say the same thing about trading, or just about any other skill. One of the crucial features of language is that it is boundless and we are able to utilize that in our development. Again, not much else in the world matches that.

But I do agree with your underlying point of reaching unconscious competence, an NLP term, btw. Speaking of which, in the spring I started doing NLP with a man who was trained by Richard Bandler. I'd strongly recommend NLP for all aspiring traders. It'll help you cut through the bullshit a lot faster and effectively than anything else out there.
  • #53
  • Sep 29, 2010 2:38am Sep 29, 2010 2:38am
Quoting candletrader
Thanks for all the insights...I've been out of that transe couple years ago, but things look much better...at least trying not to be a bad loser!

I am a very successful telecom engineer...lucky for me money is no issue.

But my attitude toward trading has been only as playing a very complex mathematical game...a very technical one indeed. I had no respect for money management, only focusing on target profit...hate to loose!

Created my own indicator, followed others, with fantastic results only if I followed the basic rules of money management,...
Bold emphasis is mine.

I am new to this forum, and Forex in general. I am in the infancy of learning before starting to trade. Been studying candlesticks, charts, indicators etc. for about a month now. I am a professional poker player (per definition of being my only income). The two seem to have some common ground - one being the psychology that can make or break someone.

You say your "attitude has been", if it is still the same or you still have any of that type of attitude, take a break and get these mental aspects under control. It is costing you money.

You must respect money management. The less you respect money management, the higher your ROR is going to be. When one of the most important things should be to keep ROR as low as possible, you are already making it harder on yourself to succeed. Money management is a key fundamental aspect. Good money management does not mean success, only that success is more likely as long as your trading a profitable strategy. Bad money management ensures failure - no matter your trading strategy.

That does not mean you must respect money itself, I would go as far to say you must disrespect it somewhat as you risk losing some every time you enter a trade. While you prefer to not lose it, when you do lose it you cant care about the loss. If the loss of a single trade is enough for you to care about and affect you negatively, then the risk is too great to try to make the trade irregardless of the risk vs reward ratio, the data you have that supports the trade etc. You should be immune to any loses, and any gains both mentally and emotionally.

You say you hate to lose. I do not know if you mean per trade, or a whole account balance. If per trade or a very small trade sample, you are never going to get it right every time. It is a unattainable goal, unless you want to fail, forget about getting it right all the time. A good trade is a good trade, even if you hit your stop loss and lose on the trade. A bad trade is a bad trade, even if you hit your take profit and profit off the trade. Individually you can only take the data you had at the time, and determine if you made a good or bad trade based off what you had at that time, the result is irrelevant. Keep making and increasing what should be good trades, and minimize making what should be bad trades, good results will follow.

These go hand in hand. The worse the money management is, the better short term ROI has to be. This leads to more stress and pressure on you, it will affect your decisions. At the same time, stress and pressure on you to do well, has no effect on the market. Combined if they are not managed effectively and in a positive way, they create a catch 22 losing proposition.
  • #54
  • Sep 29, 2010 4:49am Sep 29, 2010 4:49am
You really should read the book Trading in the Zone.
  • #55
  • Sep 29, 2010 5:52am Sep 29, 2010 5:52am
Quoting FXEntry
Bold emphasis is mine.

I am new to this forum, and Forex in general. I am in the infancy of learning before starting to trade. Been studying candlesticks, charts, indicators etc. for about a month now. I am a professional poker player (per definition of being my only income). The two seem to have some common ground - one being the psychology that can make or break someone.

You say your "attitude has been", if it is still the same or you still have any of that type of attitude, take a break and get these mental aspects under control. It is...
Hello you have got the ingredients neccasary to be good at this from what i read.
I beleive this thread could be of great use to your learning http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=245149
The author is a statition and has had interests in casinos and how they functions.
Hope this helps.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #56
  • Sep 30, 2010 3:33am Sep 30, 2010 3:33am
Quote
I understand your point. However, using language as a simile doesn't work. The greatest linguist ever, along with other great ones, believe our brains are hard-wired for language. You can't say the same thing about trading, or just about any other skill. One of the crucial features of language is that it is boundless and we are able to utilize that in our development. Again, not much else in the world matches that.

But I do agree with your underlying point of reaching unconscious competence, an NLP term, btw. Speaking of which, in the spring...


What my research says is every new born baby is born with 100 billion neurons and 1000 trillion synapses. The neural network is not yet established in new born baby.

Between 0-5 years, he will learn the basic skills from his parents which develop neural network inside the brain. You will never see a new born baby speaking english words.

A baby picks up the words which parents speak at home. While picking up the words, the neurons and synapses inside his brain are getting strengthen and after practice, he is able to recall those words.

Any skill has to be acquired. The first skill which we acquire is language.

I gave this example on other thread- If i ask myself what is 6+ 10, i will answer it in a fraction of second. I do not have think about it. While in kindergarten, if you would have asked me the same question, i would have to think about it or answer it incorrectly.

Over a period of time, we do these additions, subtraction, multiplication etc thousand of times in our daily life that neural network inside in our brain gets so strong that these things are rooted in our subconscious mind.

I agree we are hardwired to learn language but we have to put the effort in grasping it by listening to our parents during early years.

I will copy it what i wrote on other thread regarding one of the top discretionary day traders in S&P 500 futures:


I had met one of the top day trader in S&P 500 futures. He is trading for last 5 years. If you ask him, what happened in S&P 500 futures on lets say Oct 18, 2006 or dec 2, 2007 or feb 3, 2009, he will answer you in a second- Where market opened, did it made high or low first, what were high/low values, where market closed, how market reacted. He knows last 5 year patterns like a memory chip in a computer.

This is fluency at its best. This is use of subconscious mind to memorize past patterns and use that knowledge to make a day trading plan each day. This is discretionary trading.

He puts in deliberative practice to record each day in S&P 500 futures, learn, revise and memorize hundred times so that patterns, volatility, behavior is embedded in his subconscious mind. Every day/weekend he revise past patterns.

Thanks for sharing NLP knowledge. I have checked it and it looks good. I will read more about it.
  • #57
  • Sep 30, 2010 4:41am Sep 30, 2010 4:41am
Quoting kingfisher
Thanks for sharing NLP knowledge. I have checked it and it looks good. I will read more about it.
Hey, I just looked at your profile and saw you're in Dubai. I'm in Al Ain and the guy I mentioned lives here, but spends a lot of time in Dubai doing training. I contacted a couple of outfits in Dubai last year about NLP training and they were ridiculously expensive. The guy I work with only charges 350 Dh per session which is very reasonable considering the other ones were charging 900 Dh per hour. He's a Brit, ex-SAS, his wife was both of my sons' creche teacher and he's just a great guy. Send me a pm and I'll send you his mobile number.
  • #58
  • Sep 30, 2010 7:22am Sep 30, 2010 7:22am
Quote
Hey, I just looked at your profile and saw you're in Dubai. I'm in Al Ain and the guy I mentioned lives here, but spends a lot of time in Dubai doing training. I contacted a couple of outfits in Dubai last year about NLP training and they were ridiculously expensive. The guy I work with only charges 350 Dh per session which is very reasonable considering the other ones were charging 900 Dh per hour. He's a Brit, ex-SAS, his wife was both of my sons' creche teacher and he's just a great guy. Send me a pm and I'll send you his mobile number.

This is quite good. Unfortunately, i am currently working in Edinburgh, UK for an official visit. I have not updated the location in the profile.

As soon as i come back to Dubai, i will send you PM requesting for his mobile number.

Thanks.
  • #59
  • Sep 30, 2010 9:50am Sep 30, 2010 9:50am
Hi everyone. I am a new member and this is my first posting. After playing around in the markets and losing more than winning for 18 months, I have decided to take it more seriously and start researching FX properly. Ihave read and learned a great deal from these forums and would like to thank all the experienced people who contribute their thoughts and suggestions.

There is no way I will be trading in ten years time if I am not making money (even a little). There are many crucial elements necessary to become a successful trader and MM is one of the more obvious. If you read these forums, there are plenty of warnings for those who think trading is easy/instinctive. In fact, a sensible person, weighing up the risks involved, the journey necessary for success and the time involved, would most likey stop here and go no further!

I however, find it all facinating and am prepared to give up some of my free time to see where the journey will take me. I do feel that I have all the attributes to be sucessful but know that even that will not make it so.
  • #60
  • Oct 4, 2010 6:31am Oct 4, 2010 6:31am
Quoting candletrader
I know, I should know better, but if you have been trading in forex/financial markets for about 10 yrs., and still way negative, then you better throw the towel, and say I am out...hasta la vista baby
It depends on how you want to look at those 10 years. 10 years of trading experience could be looked upon as 10 years of trading wisdom or you could look at it as 10 years of simply blowing your money.

Did you eve consider trading Binary Forex Options? I have a trade on the EUR/USD right now that is doing 50% profit with only a 30 pip move in my direction, and that is 30 pips FROM the opening of my trade....without worrying about a stop loss.

At one point I was ready to quit like you, but then I gave up Spot Forex and started trading Binary Forex Options instead. I'm not saying that everyone can make it in Binary Forex Options, but for me, they are 100% easier to trade than Spot Forex.
Binary Options Trader
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