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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #232,181
  • Sep 24, 2010 12:38am Sep 24, 2010 12:38am
Quoting Fudomyo
makes sense. I was thinking either they're meeting tough resistance or it's a small injection. this is better actually, because the potential of getting spiked trading this back down is much lower.

$ coming and going.
I wonder if we'll see a retrace back up to 133.5. Could it be BoJ really had nothing to do with it? This would now encourage shorters, and that's supposed to be what the BoJ is supposed to discourage.
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  • #232,182
  • Sep 24, 2010 1:21am Sep 24, 2010 1:21am
Quoting Beljevina
That was too weird; hopefully everyone is OK.

sure that spike trapped 1000s of retail traders the world over expecting the sure bet continuation
  • #232,183
  • Sep 24, 2010 1:23am Sep 24, 2010 1:23am
Not me.... I took it both ways UP and Down...

ENJOY THE INTERVENTION!!!!!!!
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #232,184
  • Sep 24, 2010 2:06am Sep 24, 2010 2:06am
Tough call.....I feel maybe I shouldn't trade this pair, but the spike up, is either a great bull trap....or it's Boj and the banks hinting at their cards.

on the 1H-Daily TF:

My [email protected] Long Reasons:
- There's clearly a bull flag forming for geppy
(we just had a daily doji yesterday....)
- It's at point of support on the 200 ema
-threat of instant 200-400 pip moves with Boj intervention!!
[email protected]

Short reasons?
-Negative economic sentiment in the US yes...
-Japan made their move, China's turn to mess up the markets
-rumors of BOE QE coming soon in Tandem with US policy

But yeah I don't see this stuff happening yet, maybe from a higher point and using the next resistance level as a turning point, until then all of that is just background noise. Either way it's all good.

The technicals dictate the fundamental story. As somebody mentioned, the market is so algo driven now, you can basically pick from a rolodex what the reason is behind the move http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/images/smilies/smile.gif If the story doesn't fit reality, change it! http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/image...c/progress.gif
  • #232,185
  • Sep 24, 2010 2:17am Sep 24, 2010 2:17am
What a London morning so far - continuing the up and down toilet seat process. Definite buyers have shown up on sterling; 1.564 has been good support and shows strength on VSA & futures. GBPJPY surprising bounceback - so far - from 132.5; that's 120 pips down from the high - I would have expected them to try to take it down and make sure any trapped longs up above are wiped out with a good 250+ move down, but buyers look persistent. Tough call and stakes are high for entry; me thinks things will move lower.
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  • #232,186
  • Sep 24, 2010 3:30am Sep 24, 2010 3:30am
Went long GY @ 132.5, and am now watching paint dry, while GU rips 60 pips.

Waiting for UJ to bottom - hopefully 84.5ish, and maybe GY can make some pips up - bet you GU will start to decline, so we can watch some more GY paint dry ... geez!
  • #232,187
  • Sep 24, 2010 5:06am Sep 24, 2010 5:06am
i hope BoJ gets punished for there stupid no comment stupid plays like today and last week lets break all lows!!!!!!!
  • #232,188
  • Sep 24, 2010 6:45am Sep 24, 2010 6:45am
nothing new
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"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #232,189
  • Sep 24, 2010 7:58am Sep 24, 2010 7:58am
Quoting Beljevina
Went long GY @ 132.5, and am now watching paint dry, while GU rips 60 pips.

Waiting for UJ to bottom - hopefully 84.5ish, and maybe GY can make some pips up - bet you GU will start to decline, so we can watch some more GY paint dry ... geez!
Hopefully a good day to dry paint.
  • #232,190
  • Sep 24, 2010 11:51am Sep 24, 2010 11:51am
You gents are pretty quiet today. Nice grind higher and looks like we'll close near the overnight highs put in on all the rumor BS. I like it and I'll be holding longs over the weekend still. 139.00 is a possibility and I'll hold until that or until the charts tell me it's a pipe dream.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #232,191
  • Sep 24, 2010 12:14pm Sep 24, 2010 12:14pm
Quoting Beljevina
Went long GY @ 132.5, and am now watching paint dry, while GU rips 60 pips.

Waiting for UJ to bottom - hopefully 84.5ish, and maybe GY can make some pips up - bet you GU will start to decline, so we can watch some more GY paint dry ... geez!
So thankfully GJ made a move, and is up about 100 pips from my entry - I am looking to close most of the position, as I'm tired of the back & forth. If/when intervention occurs, my strategy is to put buy stops about 40-50 pips north of current price. Worked last night on the fake intervention, and I obviously got out with less pips, but since it wasn't the real thing, they're a bonus anyway. And once you can confirm it is intervention, adding by backing up the truck on a pull back is the way to go.

Obviously the sterling move was in GU, which did about 180 pips vs. GJ's 110 or so. Really strange watching the PA between those two and UJ. I really thought the big boys would try to trap the longs from the fake intervention of last night, but it looks like they got off, assuming, one had a 120 or so SL. (If you know your GY, this is not an unreasonable SL with the right money management). Imagine the sinking stomach feeling of those who got out on a 50 or 80 pip SL, only to see their entry price again in <12 hrs! That's forex for ya - one big broom!

I'd say Japan's intervention is quickly falling apart, flapping out in the wind like a wet stinky diaper, with insufficient resolve and planning; perhaps they were banking on a natural upwards retracement of UJ based on good news, but there's only one mode of operation for the USD, so far. They've given back 180 pips of the 300 pip move up. 82.8 was the launch initiation point last time, which IMO if they want to retain any efficiency from the last intervention, they should relaunch from about 84, or about 30 pips away. Can they do it? A Monday morning intervention? Hard to expect. Enjoy the weekend all!
  • #232,192
  • Sep 24, 2010 1:46pm Sep 24, 2010 1:46pm
Quoting Geppy
You gents are pretty quiet today. Nice grind higher and looks like we'll close near the overnight highs put in on all the rumor BS. I like it and I'll be holding longs over the weekend still. 139.00 is a possibility and I'll hold until that or until the charts tell me it's a pipe dream.
Hi Geppy, Beljevina. Can I ask what you're doing with stops holding over the weekeend? I know that stops aren't guaranteed especially in case of a sudden spike. My position is quite small so I am considering locking in to BE or BE + a few.

I took profit for +99 on 2/3 of my position from 132.37 as I'm a bit concerned that there could be some rapid movement after the weekend with these rumours about BoJ resignation.

I know everyone has different risk management levels, just after your experienced opinions in a potentially volatile few days of trading ahead.
  • #232,193
  • Sep 24, 2010 1:58pm Sep 24, 2010 1:58pm
Quoting uksnowman
Hi Geppy, Beljevina. Can I ask what you're doing with stops holding over the weekeend? I know that stops aren't guaranteed especially in case of a sudden spike. My position is quite small so I am considering locking in to BE or BE + a few.
If I hold through the weekend, I usually remove stops and TPs prior to my platform shutting down, and then I make certain I am online and checking my positions when my broker opens at 5pm EST Sunday.

I believe PA starts 1pm EST on Sunday, but any stops or TPs won't work with most brokers, but they tell you you can have a margin call; mind you, one should never be anywhere close to having a position that could induce a margin call through a weekend.

Lately the 5pm EST Sunday open has been very close to Friday's 5pm close for me, or maybe 30-40 pips away; I choose to eliminate my SLs and TPs in case I want to partial close at Sunday's open if say something is very advantageous for me. But I'd rarely leave anything through the weekend that isn't 100+ pips in profit, so SL shouldn't be a factor; I can only recall once in the last 1.5yrs a 'gap' open of 100 pips away. UKDaytrader will tell you that it always comes back to the Friday close, but I suppose that depends if one's Friday close is 4pm/5pm and if Sunday's open is 5pm/6pm. Hope that's of some help; little risk of a 132.3 long getting in trouble - I'd be more concerned about a Monday directional fakeout.
  • #232,194
  • Sep 24, 2010 3:13pm Sep 24, 2010 3:13pm
Quoting uksnowman
Hi Geppy, Beljevina. Can I ask what you're doing with stops holding over the weekeend?
I tend to keep my stops at wherever I had them before. Honestly, I don't worry about weekends too much unless there's some serious economic issues going on during the week that could get worse over the weekend. Also, the G7 meeting can be a market moving event so I get out of positions on those weekends too.

Other than that, I'm like Bel. I get in front of the charts on Sunday and make sure everything is in order. My positions I'm holding this weekend are all well in profit too so I don't have much to worry about.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #232,195
  • Sep 24, 2010 6:27pm Sep 24, 2010 6:27pm
Excellent, thank you very much both of you. Beljevina, I will certainly be adding that to my notes, very useful! Geppy, I hope that at some point I can learn to stay in a position for several days or more in the right conditions like I see you and others on this thread do. I know it is partly confidence in your own setups/trading, something I am building.

Also need to keep working on the pyschology aspect, the part I am finding the hardest to crack!
  • #232,196
  • Sep 24, 2010 6:27pm Sep 24, 2010 6:27pm
I see that XE.com 2 hours after close has GY down to 131.03. Any ideas? Is that Bernanke's speech, something else ot is XE just messed up?
  • #232,197
  • Sep 24, 2010 7:35pm Sep 24, 2010 7:35pm
Mike,

I saw that as well. It's most likely due to the Govt's take over of 3 failing credit unions announced right after 5:00. U/J dropped like a rock to about 82.8. Talk about a gap on Sun.
Possibly former fed chairman Volcker's statement played a role as well, saying "our banking system is broken".


Quoting ccmike
I see that XE.com 2 hours after close has GY down to 131.03. Any ideas? Is that Bernanke's speech, something else ot is XE just messed up?
  • #232,198
  • Sep 24, 2010 11:30pm Sep 24, 2010 11:30pm
Quoting melvyn
Mike,

I saw that as well. It's most likely due to the Govt's take over of 3 failing credit unions announced right after 5:00. U/J dropped like a rock to about 82.8. Talk about a gap on Sun.
Possibly former fed chairman Volcker's statement played a role as well, saying "our banking system is broken".
http://forex.tradingcharts.com/quotes/GBP_majors.html

fyi n better than xe.com/saxo/oanda
  • #232,199
  • Sep 25, 2010 4:32am Sep 25, 2010 4:32am
Who'd like a wager we'll see 131.05 this coming trading week?

The only caveat is that INO didn't show this price change. If they had, I would be 100% confident.

I'll be short bias the JPY pairs this week. (BoJ permitting).
  • #232,200
  • Edited 7:35am Sep 25, 2010 5:57am | Edited 7:35am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Who'd like a wager we'll see 131.05 this coming trading week?

The only caveat is that INO didn't show this price change. If they had, I would be 100% confident.

I'll be short bias the JPY pairs this week. (BoJ permitting).
hi ukay,

i dont think gbpjpy will go lower 132.i will wait until daily close on sunday.if daily candle (green candle) close above bearish candle open(red candle) my bias is still bullish with 136 target.i will add long long at monday daily 5sma if daily candlestick close above 132.8.no fundamental view.my 2 cent n good luck all....
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