Apologies for the intrusion but I have to comment regarding the Mike Maloney $10 oil video and post a counterpoint video. If you follow Maloney through to part 2 and watch the whole thing you see several assertions of commodity price declines (including oil). Unfortunately for Mr. Maloney, most of the commodity charts have since pointed upward since he gave the speech. It sounds like two simple logic errors on his part. First, he states that the US monetary base is declining (which M3 has since 2009). http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate...-supply-charts
But he makes the incorrect assumption that the decline in monetary base will turn into an ever downward spiral which is doubtful given Bernanke's penchant (and promise) to solve every problem with printing money, and the spending habits of most Americans which tend towards low savings rates long term.
Second, Maloney shows the head and shoulders pattern and states it is one of the most reliable patterns of TA. Then he shows several examples where the pattern has worked and then jumps to the assumption that it is present in, and will also work in the case of oil, wheat, corn and several other instruments. Unfortunately for Mr. Maloney, the H&S pattern (and the entire realm of TA) is non-causative. The current trajectory of commodity prices indicate that inflation, not deflation is the main concern, and the following inflation chart confirms this view.