Vegas Wealth Builder - Part I

Hi Pipsta,

Thanks for sharing your way of trading - very informative! Could you comment on your entry/exit strategy/ies? Do you trade strictly off daily charts or do you make use of other timeframes?

Also, if you're seeing the EMA's tightening, what in your analysis indicates that this signals a move to the upside? Price Action (especially on a weekly chart) seems to show downward pressure & the stochs on your daily chart you posted are also poised to move downwards. I gather your take is that these are just short-term signals?

BlueMeasure

Hey accrete,

I guess I should have said 'rebellious' instead of 'revolutionary', but I'm being on my best behavior right now. I've been using software for my studies not calculating by hand. It's just when a new strategy develops, looking at it unfold is often very different than looking at it in the past tense. Watching a daily candle unfold can be misleading at times. It really makes a huge difference when you've actually watched something happen realtime compared to after the fact. As an example, let's say you got two legs down over two candles wide(is that sorta what people are talking about when they refer to a knife?). Both have healthy wicks/tails on them. At some point during the live candle for the second leg it might have looked like it was going to break short because it was establishing the low and it was looking like a gravestone candle and all the indicators are getting tweaked with short bias. It takes a certain amount of experience to be able to open the position right after the test and fail as you can recognize what's happening because you've seen it so many times. I've seen it also break enough times to know what it looks like when it set up to break. Being able to tell the difference comes from seeing it unfold. You can prepare by back testing and looking over the chart history but I found it hardly replaces the experience of seeing it unfold.

I was just coming back to comment that I've been looking at some of the charts with the indicators that Bemac prepared for VTrader that I assume are the ones Vegas gave. Other than the daily chart I really can't make heads or tails of them until I read the 1hr and 4hr book dloads. I'm not sure I like em....I like mine better! Heh...sorta like I can't stand other people's driving when I'm the passenger.

I prefer using a fib based on 20ma. I also use a faster 'tunnel/core' (14/20). I also use a faster 'hot' tunnel/core(5,7....yea, real hot) too. I liked the fibs/tunnel that VWB uses on the daily chart, I'm not sure about the rest. I guess it's just preference. That's why I usually tell people to try different combinations until they get ones that start to make sense to them. I guess if your using just one set of MAs for your tunnel with the fibs you can go with something more middle of the road. I use a combo of three EMAs that I refer to as a 'web'...heh...partly because sometimes they can get pretty tangled and the pingponging that goes on between them can be very spastic yet quite lucrative once you learn the mannerisms.

The strategies most people use usually are pretty much based on the same basic principals, often it's just a matter of finding the right combination of indicators that give you the info you need to be able to recognize what's going on.

One of these days I'll load a new chart with VWB indicators and read his material so I can understand it more. It really seems like he uses very similiar variables as I do when determining 'bias'. What I described in my previous post is how I determine daily 'bias'. With CMS you can hedge so much of my style uses layering of positions so it's difficult to describe. Much of it has become intuitive when I look at the 1hr and 4hr charts and see how all of the EMAs and SMAs are arranged. Then look at how the price action is ranging, find the candleform that gives me the right time. As long as I feel confident to open a position with a target in sight and my risk managed I'm good to go!

It's not easy to say, this is my system, and lay it out. I usually don't try to figure out which way the market is going to go. I let the market dictate to me which way it wants to go, I just know the way it's going to get there. I capitalize on price action mannerisms, not trend prognostication, although I regularly get caught up in the trend if I play my cards right.

Anyone else watching or even RIDING this EURJPY ?
Any comments or observations on that candle structure on the 1 day?
It pinged nicely off the 2nd fibo and appears to have gotten stuck on the first one.
Think I should just stick with it? It sure does look like it could go either way at this point.
Then again, with the USD/JPY gaining, doesn't that contribute to the EUR/JPY dropping?
Does anyone else watch other currencies to judge a trade on a separate currency or do you just keep them all seperate in your mind cuz they could technically do anything?

Hi Stop_Loss,

I do watch other pairs but not as the definitive 'Tell All'.
I watch them to help me decide if it is STRENGTH in one half of the Pair OR WEAKNESS in the other.
eg. I might refrainfrom going long the EUR/USD if...
The EUR/JPY is Falling
AND
The USD/JPY is Gaining

This is just one example of all the possable permutations.
It just means I have to be convinced by EUR/USD TA that it is time to Buy.

This EMA squeeze is something relatively new for me. I'm still learning about it. I have to agree that if you look at some of the indicators like slowstoch you might get the impression that if there was going to be a lengthy(weeks long) trend it would be heading south for the eur/usd. Although I'm just going by the way the EMAs are arranged and their 'bias' to give me clues as to what the move may be and which way in this instance. They are telling me something different than what the stoch is saying and I know that the stoch isn't always the most reliable for what I'm trying to use it for in this instance. It's not fully overbought yet as it's still below 80.00 on the daily stoch so the fact that it's rolled over with a sligh bear bias could only be as result of the recent move down that could possibly only be a retrace in preparation of another move long. Which would then turn the stoch back up and give it a nice roller coaster ride looking bias going long before it eventually exhausts itself somewhere up near 1.25.

It's something new for me so I'm not sure what to make of it yet. It's about as close as I come to trend guesstimation as I usually come. I'm not sure if I like it much. Sure it's all fancy shmancy could make me look smart stuff if I am right but I kinda prefer the blue collar swing trading. I can be wrong and still profit when I play my 'law of averages' game. It's more about leveraging multiple positions in an extreme range scenario. I have no sentimentality about being 'right' or having to be able to know which way it's going just positioned to take advantage of the waves in movement......if that makes any sense.....

It could be that the EMA squeeze results in a huge whipsaw for all I know. It's really still in theory stages. I have some theories about it the theory though. This chart attached(weekly) shows some long term trendlines I looking at and their possible influence. Plus it illustrates by the arrows showing overbought conditions and the corresponding price level that when the stoch goes overbought it doesn't mean it's always done going long with the weekly chart at least. It sure can push on quite a while while still being overbought on the weekly chart apparently. Plus if it makes any difference the pair is oversold on the monthly stoch. The slowstoch as most people know isn't an indicator you want to be totally relying on it solely. Used in connection with others it can be effective.

This new theory has alot I'm still puzzled by. I'm not even sure if it eventually will turn up anything useful.

edit: I put the wrong chart on...let me get the right one

edit again: ok...got the right one...heh

Now this sucker has a 10 pip spread, and at first that wigged me out until I saw how fast it moves around. So I traded it a few times and liked it.

Vegas, is there any chance we can get an MT4 plugin for this currency pair?

I appreciate and taken on board your advice. To this point I have not treated my demo account as real money, just tested stratergies.
I can see the benefit of setting up the demo acct' as per my real financial position and will trade accordingly.

One observation to date with EMA's, Ive noted the 65 EMA seems to be an excellent S/R in most currencies.

Thanks again

Was wondering if anybody is watching e/j? Looks like a shooting star formed on Friday. I know heavy J mentioned it.

Yes, I've been keeping an eye on EURJPY over the last few hours. I interpreted the daily PA and Vegas' system both indicating a potential downtrend when the Asia session opened, but because the weekly chart is bullish decided to wait it out for confirmation. Price has been moving up throughout the day pretty much nixing the bearish potential as it stands right now.

Hi, would it be a good idea to start a new thread so pple can post when trend reversal signals occur for the vegas daily system

My system is in a sell postition. We'll see how it goes. Life 30 minutes at time can take some time to develope.
I'll post screen shots if it happens.... I will change back to a long position if it breaks and holds above current resistance.

I'm Looking for a 4HR entry hook- with confirmation for short

Will sit out longs for the now because risk model is bouncing off extremes.

Good Luck Pip hunter!
HJ

Thanks Heavy. My detrend Osc will/should keep me out of any un-necessary whip-saw fake sells. only draw is it misses the ideal entry, but I'll take 75% of a good move any day. I'll post when it develops.....

After reading the material for the 1hr and 4 hr tunnel method I can see how they are really different from the daily strategy using the extreme fib. Those shorter timeframed strategies are unlike any that I use now. I would have to spend time watching the charts with those indicators in place before I could make a decision on whether I like them or not.

I first thought the reading material was more than it turned out to be. It didn't take very long to read it all. I like to complete reading material shortly after I start so I can absorb it all contextually. I set aside a few hours to read it and finished it in less than an hour. Very good. I like short, simple stuff. I'm use to seeing long drawn out superflous text to read when it comes to forex strategy or teaching material. Kudos to Vegas for keeping it brief and to the point for us attention challenged kids!

Hi Jonny,

It would be a great idea if we open a new thread to discuss only the trades of VWB/4H/1H systems. We could share our daily trade entries with charts which will make us to understand the systems more. This way, we might not clutter this thread which can be dedicated for discussions about the systems and enhancements.

Just my 2 cents..

Shan

Quoting vishalshan

Disliked

Hi Jonny,

It would be a great idea if we open a new thread to discuss only the trades of VWB/4H/1H systems. We could share our daily trade entries with charts which will make us to understand the systems more. This way, we might not clutter this thread which can be dedicated for discussions about the systems and enhancements.

Just my 2 cents..

Shan

Ignored

I agree with both of you. But it should also be kept separate from Vegas suggestions So...
I give you the new topic named...
Tunnel Vision. Independent Signals & Positioning Recommendations.

Very good Bemac.. Nice that we have 2 threads devoted for Vegas systems.

Shan

Hey everyone,

I'm pretty new to FX but really interested in learning more. I have metatrader from northfinance and can load the VWB daily but having trouble overlaying the additional risk models. It seems like I can only load one, when I goto load it for the second time to get the additional fib lines it doesn't appear to be working. Any ideas? Thanks for your help. Great thread!

Cheers

Howdy Jim.

Try this! If you are applying risk model 1 & 2. set your first indicator to 2 then MT4 should alow you to put on the second indicator which is risk model 1 by default. For some reason MT4 doesn't like to put on 2 indicators with the same risk model. This thing works like a clock tho...once your plugged in!

Hope that helps

HJ

Thanks for the help. I'm sorry this is a really dumb question most likely but how do I select the different risk models? I think this is the problem. Cheers