GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

Hi Tau,

Thanks for the gratitude...I appreciate the comments very much.

The quality is down to the select members that choose to post along with myself....You are always welcome to post here as I have said before. If the individual you mentioned is not able to post here due to the minimum vouch criteria then tell them to PM me and I will add them anyway.

How is the trading going anyway???Last time I seen a snapshot of your trading results on Cable thread they were looking impressive. Hope it is continuing to go that way.

Stocky

As per yesterdays flag pattern we broke out into NY close last night hence why there wasnt much momentum. London pushed us lower for a retest of 5615 support and also flag TL.... I have a high volume churn candle on 1pm GMT hourly candle indicating demand entering around the daily pivot.... Is it enough to break us through 5704?? 1st rejection at resistance just took place with the US existing home sales figure being better than expected..

If we break I have R2 5765, R3 5815 and daily sup/res level at 5816 as next targets.

Stocky

Hi Samir,

Thanks for posting the sterling index chart....sure looks like a inverse HnS pattern..

Stocky

yesterday was a perfect single bell distribution day....these are usually followed by trending day whioch have more stretched profiles....Im aticipating us breaking from here and forming a second distribution higher up... Should we be rejected again we may always break out the bottome of the range and target them single prints left on Tuesdays profile....all SP's have been highlghted in yellow.

Stocky

Good day everyone
update

old chart
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=8452

current chart

long term target 15900 to 15930

Guys,
my first post here. Thank you TT and Stocky, you guys have improved my trading and i can see the big picture now. I am getting better by the day and i owe it to some wonderful people here at FF.

Stocky... I have learnt from your explanations how to incoporate market profile into my trading. I have also benefitted from discussions in this trade especially the discussions at the beginning of this month.

TT... i can use your breath of currency to see levels i couldnt see before.
my first chart here... its a GU weekly.will be intresting to see what happens in the triangle shown with the arrow next week. A retrace MAY happen and 5750ish may act as support. In my little experience and understanding, this week is closing as what i regards as a bullish force candle and a break from the descending trendline will mean an attack on 1.6 and above. For sure, the bulls are in control for now.

stocky... looking forward to your weekend analysis.

( hope its not too early to post a weekly chart in here.)

getting very close to the first target area.
i would be cautious for double top scenario at that level,
but so far, potential further upside looks promising.

Well, looks like price is on its way to the 1.6 region, and as Pkimnyc notes (great first buy, by the way), may exceed this and head for 1.64 - corresponding to the next fib confluence on my charts.

I've submitted my normal chart build - not too much different for several weeks now - in order to show the Guppy profile build.

Currently running two positions, with a target of the 50 FE level shown on the charts at 1.6.

I will keep buying the dips up to this level, following the buying manner as outlined in this post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=323

50d - nice to see you aboard.

Well, stops are now positive, and first TPs set around the 1.5950 level. Would like to see price reach this soon, and then will wait for any pull back onto the rising red MAs on a 4hr Guppy profile, and may take another bite long for a run into the 1.64 levels over the next few days/weeks.

Hope all are having a reasonable day... glad I wasn't fixed to the screen - PA looks to have been a little boring today for anyone other than scalpers.

Hi guys,

I really appreciate the well wishes and messages sent to me over the last little while.

September has been a rough month. I am not ready to get back in the saddle and run big dollars just yet, and especially not the big dollars of other people. But there have been some bright sparks of potential which have appeared as I grieved.

For one thing, my first delta-neutral options trade (a QQQQ November straddle @ 44 for $4.40) yielded 14% in a little over 2 weeks. Considering the performance of VIX and VXN over this period I am elated at this sort of result.

To me, this is a huge jump forward in my skills as a trader. No longer am I bound to try and capture directionality, as long as the price of my chosen instrument doesn't sit still I can make money. Big money. This has also allowed me to spread my money out over markets, and I am looking into Hong Kong and Korea in a big way, as the next major global money centers (with already extremely liquid options markets), opportunities in this arena should be endless. Perhaps I will even speak to some big-dog brokers about trading OTC FX options (which are supposedly the most liquid options markets in the world).

There is a difference between running a small fund, and running a hedge fund, and being able to take the above to people with large sacks of cash is the difference to me.

As for the forex, I hope everyone caught the USDX range breakout which I posted a short while ago, if so you would have been selling dollars just below 82, well well above the break below 80! My guess is the Germans are pretty shitty about this, weak Euro was keeping their economy on life support. I was surprised to see Mish commentating, but it's a good one:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...ntraction.html

Personally I didn't catch it, as I was too busy sorting my life out. But being an Australian you can imagine I was watching the daily AUDUSD chart as it happened and thinking of you guys.

I am thinking, it is time to move away from cable permanently. Liquidity is getting worse and worse, the pound stinks more and more to me every day. To this end I am examining spot EURUSD or even *gasp dare I say it* Eurodollar (not the same as EuroFX) futures as an intraday alternative. I never liked the euro so much, but these days it doesn't seem to matter, everything is a USD play anyway, so the most liquid instrument with tightest spread wins out for me and it's still EURUSD or ED on that call. Just so nobody is too confused about the difference between spot EURUSD or EuroFX futures vs Eurodollar futures, I've included a chart and link below:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurodollar

(green line is EDZ10 aka GEZ10 contract, black is EURUSD spot)

Have been working on a fresh, as far as I know never-been-seen/done-before, mechanical approach to trading the hourly, using the 10% and 100% moving average (19 and 199 ema) so I am probably going to be giving up a lot of my analysis time to simply just clicking buy and sell when my phone goes off. I am sure a million traders use those two lines, but not like me That free'd up time will be spent maintaining physical and mental health, so I can contribute to the wellbeing of those around me. However I would still like to come here and contribute regarding the USDX on interesting developments, so we will hopefully speak again soon.

GMAE.

I'm liking your comments at present, and do look forward to your submissions regarding the markets.


As per previous comments, hope things are gradually getting better for you.

Good day everyone..

closed longs at 15885
expecting retracements.. because broadning top formation ..

Good luck

So Mr. Bean – Charles Bean down at the BoE – tells all those that have lived within their means, and shown fiscal responsibility, to stop moaning and start spending. This, it is argued, will help the country climb out of recession – recession in the real world, that is. What an absolute prig.

Given the surfeit of lies presented everyday by the money men and their lackeys – the politicians that are in bed with them – does Mr. Bean really expect any sane person to follow the advice of one who receives a salary replete to the tune of £250 000, and which, I venture to suggest, is protected from market sentiment, and comes with a golden handshake guarantee that affords a secure retirement.

I would like to dismiss Mr. Bean as another example of those that do not, for a minute, consider that people live with different means to him, and so made an innocent comment in the belief that we could all afford to follow his advice, and show some of the ‘blitz spirit’, for whatever that means as those in charge back then were certainly not in the firing line, but just visited the carnage after the event and tried to engender public ‘togetherness’.

I think Mr. Bean is far more insidious. He knows the state of the finances of the population, knows even better the state of the state finances, and is cohort to the bankers and politicians that one would like to think the BoE and various UK fiscal authorities are supposedly independent of, and not influenced by. Ha, I’m laughing at the ludicrous sentence that I have just written… still, I hope it gave some readers a laugh.

It is more likely that big money and politicians, having fleeced us once in order to cover the losses incurred recently, and seeing that there is only so much free money that can be stolen from the tax payer, have now had to devise new ways to guarantee that growth forecasts are met, and thus dividends and bonuses are paid. And so off to the BoE they have gone; to ask those paragons of fiscal prudence – another laugh for the reader - to encourage those that rely on the earnings from their savings to survive, and who now see interest paid below inflation, to blow the lot, help big money, and then hope that some miracle will occur that will see them living comfortably in retirement, as opposed to standing in line at the soup kitchen.

Mr. Bean: You are the epitome of what is wrong with fiscal governance. Your statement is both insulting, and damaging. It relies upon a stupidity of a public that you hope do not understand what fiscal responsibility is; hmm, the fact that people are not spending may give you some indication as to how they have rustled the ruse of ‘all will be good again’. It seems clear to me that you are attempting to dupe the public for your own short-term solution, whilst condemning the majority to a life of debt and interest repayment. Tell me, how insolvent do you want to make the public? We cannot print money like you and the banks.

I think recent events have shown that no longer will the public take at face value anything that financial institutions, banks or politicians tell us.

What I noticed over the last few nights is that the TED spread is no longer paying attention to the declines in USD. Money markets are a big % funding basis of currency movements so I pay attention when these two diverge.

So you can see the comparison, a couple of 1 year charts attached.




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TED_spread

While the taxpayer struggles to keep the home and feed the kids, the bankers look to that next luxury purchase from the guaranteed bonuses.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/onl...-rallied-month

Hi 45Condor,

Mr Bean's words were clumsy, definitely, and will undoubtedly offend many. However, I believe there was a definite element of truth, inconvenient perhaps, contained within the thoughts he expressed.

I, like many others, have been lucky to enjoy the benefits of the unhealthy and unsustainable housing boom in the UK over the last 15 years, where prices have more than trebled in most parts of the country, certainly so here in London. This has led to a skewed bonanza benefit for many of those who were post-war babies and are now ready for, or are already in, retirement. These individuals have been able to trade down their property and realise great chunks of fortuitous profit.

Therefore, as Mr Bean rightly said, many from the above group have benefited greatly from the credit boom, which saw a massive transfer of wealth from the young (first-time buyers) to the old (long-standing homeowners).

It wasn't just the bankers that gained wealth from the credit bubble.

Good day everyone,

Broadening top is now in the shape of diamond.. can go either way..

Good luck

Hi Gammase1

Mr. Bean's dishevelled appearance could be considered that of a man that, try as he might to avoid it, is fast running out of options to keep his ship afloat. If he was your financial advisor, would you act on his advice and board his ship?

I agree, and would argue that many people made great gains. However, it cannot be denied that many others - perhaps the majority of those that realized gains – are now in a position whereby they have a ‘lifestyle fund’ that, at best, will cover the basics of an acceptable living. For the past twenty years or so the public has been told to place excess capital into property, pensions and ponzi schemes – erm, I mean shares – as a way of saving for a retirement that does not see one living in penury, nor relying entirely on the state. Many duly did, and having trusted the advice of those that they regard as guardians of fiscal sobriety, are now told to stop moaning about the reduction in returns upon their savings, the increased charges from banks that will eat into the smaller returns, and the increasing costs of living, inflation etcetera. Mr. Bean now tells us all to now spend what many have spent a working lifetime accumulating, and try to ignore that previous governments have raided pensions to cover short falls. Add to this the eye-watering amounts of free money given to banks – taken from Joe on the street, I may add - the continuing revelations of bank behaviour and lies – stress tests and post-test admittances of incorrect debt liability filings the first time around immediately spring to mind here - risk-taking with almost total impunity as we see banks now back in profit and bonuses back up there, and one can appreciate why respect for what was once regarded as a respectable trade has all but faded.

Of course, there are many citizens that thought that easy credit and ever-increasing property values were here to stay; this was a presumption supported by politics and big money – a reprehensible act on the part of those that know/knew better, and should have better informed the public. I mean, mortgages over 100%, or at sometimes 9 times salary, fiddled income slips and so on in order to satisfy loan criteria and goad Joe to sign on the dotted line. You have to ask at this stage if government knew that with a lack of social housing, and want to feed the property boom, it deliberately held back from supplying an increasing public with the housing it needed, and thus was complicit. Regarding the banks, your man in the bank branch offering you mortgages and investment portfolios, I doubt understands what is happening in head office. Equally, many members of the public do not grasp financial instruments, and thus heed the direction of the man in the bank branch.

So now we are told to spend. On what? UK Plc doesn’t produce much these days – submitted thoughts upon this many times - so the public will be forced to buy imports, and thus feed manufacturing outside of the UK. Sure, some of these manufacturers will be owned by the large corporations that could be found in the FTSE, but as we see all too often as of late, these corporations are very good at reducing/avoiding tax, and thus avert pumping money back into the UK’s economy… and I don’t want another television, or crappy shirt produced by a machinist that has to meet a daily quota in order to take home that dollar for the day, whilst the attention to the detail to that bloody button was missed, and forces me to sew the thing back on after the first wash.

I also worry about how small businesses are increasingly unable to get credit - it could be argued after banks realized that there may not be a second round of free money. So now they start to behave as they should have previously, and only grant loans to those with solid foundations – or is it, stuff Joe, I’m guaranteed a return if I stick my capital into the government’s coffer each night and collect on their promised interest… something Joe cannot.

We could also discuss lobbyists having only money as their interest when trying to direct legislation. Or, employees of regulatory bodies not wanting to jeopardize their turn at being employed by the banks, and thus not curtailing the banking practises that have occurred.

A comment to make in relation to Mr. Bean's remark about until better times, is that this may be a veiled reference to an increase in interests rates.

Bernanke and his band of buccaneers are destroying the passage of my latest trade.

Was outside all day - yep, rendering that wall - and returned to see a week of gains sunk.

Can someone fire a broadside into that man's gob, please?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=232373