Should I throw in the towel after being in the negative for 10 years? | Page 2 | Forex Factory

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Should I throw in the towel after being in the negative for 10 years?

  • #21
  • Sep 17, 2010 3:38pm Sep 17, 2010 3:38pm
Quoting kingsurfer
Price acqually goes UP AND DOWN. May take 10 years to appreciate this.

King.

Got it now. I needed someone to tell me this .... thats why I've been losing for so long.
  • #22
  • Sep 20, 2010 11:37am Sep 20, 2010 11:37am
Quoting candletrader
I know, I should know better, but if you have been trading in forex/financial markets for about 10 yrs., and still way negative, then you better throw the towel, and say I am out...hasta la vista baby
10 years? Jeez....how much money have you lost my man?
  • #23
  • Sep 20, 2010 12:20pm Sep 20, 2010 12:20pm
Quoting candletrader
I know, I should know better, but if you have been trading in forex/financial markets for about 10 yrs., and still way negative, then you better throw the towel, and say I am out...hasta la vista baby
To answer the question, it seems to me it all depends on where you are. Over the years I’ve seen lots of people on these forums attempting to learn how to trade, yet they already have careers. Doctors, lawyers, engineers, etc who are learning something new out of interest, boredom, or greed. Maybe they want to change careers, or maybe they just want to make more money, but they have careers.

Then there are lots of younger folks who don’t have careers. They think that maybe trading could be their career. For them, the pressure is greater to succeed. If someone from the first group doesn’t succeed, they lose some money and some free time. However they still have their jobs and careers. Maybe some of them will give up their careers if they ever reach a certain level of consistency in trading, or a specific wealth level. Maybe not. Not everyone hates their job, I know I don’t. After 24 years I still look forward to every new semester with excitement.

But for those who are young and haven’t found their way in life, if after 5 or 10 years you haven’t found success in trading, it’s time to move on, as you’re wasting valuable time. Would you spend 10 years in law school when you should finish in 3? Of course not. And as anyone who is 50 + will tell you, time goes by so fast.

There is nothing wrong with quitting, contrary to what conventional wisdom says. And as most people who live long enough finally realize, conventional wisdom isn’t all that wise.

I read a book a few years ago, the title escapes me, about knowing when to quit. If someone works a really shitty job, everyone will tell them to quit and move on. If after 10 years you haven’t succeeded at trading, then why would you want to hang on any longer?

Knowing when to quit a hand in poker is absolutely essential (people do like to compare poker with trading, don’t they), so why isn’t it the same in trading. Hell, knowing when to quit a trade is the key to surviving in this game, so why do so many insist on taking a beating over and over again, year after year? Because like so much else on these boards, and in life, the advice to not quit is just another empty platitude. The trading business is full of them.

In the end, only you truly know the answer to the question.
  • #24
  • Sep 20, 2010 12:36pm Sep 20, 2010 12:36pm
After 10 years of trying, what is it about trading that keeps you interested, it obviously isn't the money ?
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #25
  • Sep 20, 2010 1:07pm Sep 20, 2010 1:07pm
Quoting Dopey
I read a book a few years ago, the title escapes me, about knowing when to quit. If someone works a really shitty job, everyone will tell them to quit and move on. If after 10 years you haven’t succeeded at trading, then why would you want to hang on any longer?
Put it ino perspective, how long do people spend in full time education and training for most professions, medicine, the law etc. If you have a plan, and your making quantifiable progress why would you stop ?.
  • #26
  • Sep 20, 2010 2:35pm Sep 20, 2010 2:35pm
http://www.gamblersanonymous.org/

Once when I was a young engineer fresh out of school and I was at a new job, they put me out on a utility construction job as an inspector. It was in Stateline, Nevada and we were working in front of a casino that was right next to the road. Normal day, boring, until some drunk driver ran right through our construction zone and crashed through the plate glass front windows of the casino. Mayhem. None of our people outside were hurt, but when we went to look inside the casino, we saw that the car had crashed into a row of slot machines and several people were messed up. Slot machines knocked over, broken glass, quite a mess.

Then I noticed, further inside, at the other rows of slot machines, people were still sitting at their places, feeding the machines, pulling the bandit arms, as if in a trance, oblivious to the pandemonium just a few feet away. I remember thinking at the time, "Wow...that's just sick."

But, now, I recognize the delusion....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #27
  • Sep 20, 2010 4:12pm Sep 20, 2010 4:12pm
Quoting The Fool
http://www.gamblersanonymous.org/

Once when I was a young engineer fresh out of school and I was at a new job, they put me out on a utility construction job as an inspector. It was in Stateline, Nevada and we were working in front of a casino that was right next to the road. Normal day, boring, until some drunk driver ran right through our construction zone and crashed through the plate glass front windows of the casino. Mayhem. None of our people outside were hurt, but when we went to look inside the casino, we saw that the car had...
wow..deep story. yea that is sick.

i think that whenever you make money trading, it fuels up that motivation again. You're thinking, ok i've been consistently making money for the last couple of weeks or months, so i must be getting close!. Then string of losers or a big loss and then you're demotivated. . I think the equity swings keep people in this game. If all they ever experienced are losses..they wouldn't trade for much longer. But then again, there are those who have addicting personality...(i am one of those people).
  • #28
  • Sep 20, 2010 4:22pm Sep 20, 2010 4:22pm
Well, at least in the Nevada casinos they give ya free drinks.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #29
  • Edited 7:48am Sep 21, 2010 7:39am | Edited 7:48am
Thanks for all the insights...I've been out of that transe couple years ago, but things look much better...at least trying not to be a bad loser!

I am a very successful telecom engineer...lucky for me money is no issue.

But my attitude toward trading has been only as playing a very complex mathematical game...a very technical one indeed. I had no respect for money management, only focusing on target profit...hate to loose!

Created my own indicator, followed others, with fantastic results only if I followed the basic rules of money management, wouldn't blow accounts lots of times!

At this stage, I'd like to take trading as a very serious work, so I could leave my day job.

System I am trying to put the final touch: Candlestick reversal patterns on bollinger bands with stochastics confirmation.

Cheers.

ps. the reason I am so interested in candletstick reversal patterns is that they can identify the SL levels...the only unkown part is TP. But that could be solved only by drawing sup/res levels on the chart, and set them as the designated TP levels.
  • #30
  • Sep 21, 2010 7:56am Sep 21, 2010 7:56am
throw in the towel after ten years?

kinda sweaty...
Enter Signature
  • #31
  • Sep 21, 2010 11:56am Sep 21, 2010 11:56am
  •  Czech
  • | Joined Feb 2010 | Status: You Don't Know What You Don't Know | 111 Posts
Quoting candletrader
the only unkown part is TP. But that could be solved only by drawing sup/res levels on the chart, and set them as the designated TP levels.
Statistically, the most TPs (by volume) are found within 10 pips of round numbers (00). Or at least that was the case with the sampled data in some Ossler study, the sample was taken from a major European bank and i believe was from 6-10 years ago.
  • #32
  • Edited 9:32pm Sep 22, 2010 9:22pm | Edited 9:32pm
Quoting Czech
Statistically, the most TPs (by volume) are found within 10 pips of round numbers (00). Or at least that was the case with the sampled data in some Ossler study, the sample was taken from a major European bank and i believe was from 6-10 years ago.
What a great tip Czech...thanks buddy.

I just took this trade:

Short eurusd @ 1.3400

SL 1.3444
TP 1.3100
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_4hr.gif Size: 60 KB
  • #33
  • Sep 22, 2010 9:38pm Sep 22, 2010 9:38pm
Quoting kingsurfer
How golden is this rule?
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...2&postcount=26

King.
The problem with your golden rule is that it takes only one mistake when you risk 100% of your account and you are out. Also if you are only making 2% it would take 50 trades (without compounding) to double it, where if you risk 2% and make 4%, it would only take 25. Since you can expose yourself less often the second scenario may have a better chance. But the bottom line is you need to have an edge. Without it, the only thing that the amount risked changes, is the time it would take to have no money left...
Stubbornly persistent
  • #34
  • Sep 23, 2010 12:30pm Sep 23, 2010 12:30pm
Quoting sergiu
The problem with your golden rule is that it takes only one mistake when you risk 100% of your account and you are out. Also if you are only making 2% it would take 50 trades (without compounding) to double it, where if you risk 2% and make 4%, it would only take 25. Since you can expose yourself less often the second scenario may have a better chance. But the bottom line is you need to have an edge. Without it, the only thing that the amount risked changes, is the time it would take to have no money left...
You are right. It takes only one loss ( or sequence of uninterrupted losses) to wipe out an account with a 100% risk whereas the Golden 2% have a wider room for individual errors before a wipe out. However lets put it in perspective in terms of long term possibility of success.

PRICE IS ALWAYS RETRACING.
A small SL is hit far more frequently than the RRR shows. So losses per trade occur much more frequently with a favorable reward risk ratio and over time wipes out an account with a 100% certainty. If the distance of the SL is much longer than the TP the win rate is so increased that it far outweighs the unfavourable RRR again, because, in forex price is always retracing.

The one time risk of a wipe out using very wide SL pales against the astronomical possibility of doubling the account(s) before this.

Remember we trade probabilities in forex; price is always retracing!

I remain suspicious that it is acqually less than 5% of traders that have deciced that conventional wisdom is not for them.

King.
  • #35
  • Sep 23, 2010 6:26pm Sep 23, 2010 6:26pm
  •  Czech
  • | Joined Feb 2010 | Status: You Don't Know What You Don't Know | 111 Posts
Quoting kingsurfer
PRICE IS ALWAYS RETRACING.
A small SL is hit far more frequently than the RRR shows.
Actually the Risk Return ratio doesn't imply how often your stop is hit
Quote
So losses per trade occur much more frequently with a favorable reward risk ratio and over time wipes out an account with a 100% certainty.
If you're entering the market at random.

Quote
If the distance of the SL is much longer than the TP the win rate is so increased that it far outweighs the unfavorable RRR again, because, in forex price is always retracing.
no.... just no.
Quote
The one time risk of a wipe out using very wide SL pales against the astronomical possibility of doubling the account(s) before this.
If by "one time risk" you mean "constant risk" and by "astronomical" you mean "moderate", then yes, you're almost spot on! I think its ironic you mentioned conditions that supposedly "wipe out an account with a 100% certainty" yet you put this on the table.
Quote
Remember we trade probabilities in forex; price is always retracing!
Not everyone trades probabilities. Trading probabilities is gambling. Not that there's anything wrong with that.
Quote
I remain suspicious that it is acqually less than 5% of traders that have deciced that conventional wisdom is not for them.

King.
i remain suspicious that you have ever been profitable.
  • #36
  • Sep 24, 2010 7:00pm Sep 24, 2010 7:00pm
Quoting Czech

Not everyone trades probabilities.
Whatever strategy used in trading forex, outcome depends on whether the take profit or stop loss is hit first. Some have better possibility than others but never without that inherent risk.

I maintain that all thing being equal a smaller stop loss to take profit will be hit far too frequently to offset the calculated reward risk ratio in a market that is retracing most of the time.

King.
  • #37
  • Sep 24, 2010 7:51pm Sep 24, 2010 7:51pm
  •  Czech
  • | Joined Feb 2010 | Status: You Don't Know What You Don't Know | 111 Posts
Quoting kingsurfer
Whatever strategy used in trading forex, outcome depends on whether the take profit or stop loss is hit first. Some have better possibility than others but never without that inherent risk.
I'm not suggesting you can trade without risk. To me, trading probabilities is taking a defined setup based on the assumption that it will win x% of the time. You accept a certain percentage of losers as a function of the system.
An example of trading without probabilities, in my opinion, is taking a trade based on an analysis of weighted factors. If the trade loses its because your analysis was incorrect. Reconsider the factors involved and make better decisions in the future. In this way you're also adapting to changes in the market environment but if the factors considered don't have a real effect on price you will fail.

Quote
I maintain that all thing being equal a smaller stop loss to take profit will be hit far too frequently to offset the calculated reward risk ratio in a market that is retracing most of the time.

I will agree that if you are taking trades at random, a RR of less than 1 will probably deplete your account more quickly. However, if you are taking trades at random I think you should reconsider the fact that money management is never an edge. I'm not sure what you mean by "all things being equal" though.
  • #38
  • Edited 8:21pm Sep 24, 2010 8:12pm | Edited 8:21pm
Quoting kingsurfer
Whatever strategy used in trading forex, outcome depends on whether the take profit or stop loss is hit first. Some have better possibility than others but never without that inherent risk.

I maintain that all thing being equal a smaller stop loss to take profit will be hit far too frequently to offset the calculated reward risk ratio in a market that is retracing most of the time.

King.
You keep repeating that "the market retraces most of the time", like somehow there is an edge in that. I will actually say that the market retraces all the time. The problem is that determining the timing and extent of a retracement can be just as difficult as the move itself. Also, just because the market is retracing, it does not mean that it should hit your SL. A retrecement can be used to add to positions in a strong trend. It's just a matter of trying to determine where the retracement might stall. It is all a matter of perspective and approach...
Stubbornly persistent
  • #39
  • Sep 25, 2010 12:36am Sep 25, 2010 12:36am
if u have a successful career and money is not a problem then i dont think u shud give up....coz its human nature to keep fighting.
  • #40
  • Sep 25, 2010 3:30am Sep 25, 2010 3:30am
I think you shud try some thing really simple some thing like this...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=163012
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