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  • #481
  • Sep 22, 2010 4:34pm Sep 22, 2010 4:34pm
Quoting Taiyakixz
Thank you for your message.

7000pips!!! You are strong....is it your biggest drawdown?
ummmm....of course I know I must be patient with a certain drawdown, but 7000pips...? ummmm......
Worst drawdown, 100% ........

Not on this system, but possible.

Remember, this is my test account, that is why it is a smaller amount using 10 cents with a deposit of 1300.00 US

I maxed it out to do 28 pairs on 1300.00 with 10 cents to see how bad it would get.

This isn't bad in my opinion because I will start closing out the L1's very soon, so those won't grow much. Etc...

If this were a hundred K account, I would be frazzled... haha..

I know I can make it back, and I also know that it will most likely retrace, so I will be patient. If not, then I will take my losses as they come. Life goes on and I will rebuild it quickly.

When I put NB 5.0 back on this account, I was down close to 200.00 from another method. I climbed back 220.00 in a little over a week. So, if I end up losing 500.00, I am ok. I will make it back within 6-8 weeks and will do fine. This move is unusual and I expect 2 of these a year, maybe 3 so even if I trade these and lose I will still be profitable. The key is to keep you head square.

Also, I don't do this amount of leverage in a large account. I am using Bob's, 1 cent per 100.00 and on my larger account, I am doing about .006 per 100.00 instead of .01 per 100.00



EDIT: Plus I made about 200.00 in mistakes (of the drawdown) playing with it and experimenting, so...
We are our own best indicator.
  • #482
  • Sep 22, 2010 4:38pm Sep 22, 2010 4:38pm
Quoting chiba_san
i only put up the atr on all my charts for the first time thanks to astral a couple of hours ago.

you know what it reminded me off? it reminded me of the coral in the thv system.
People want an insurance policy and somehow indicators become that policy/bond?

The special sauce in this technique is selling high OR buying low and the 2.4.2... And of course proper money management in not over-extending yourself.

Of course, this is only my opinion, so take it for what its worth....
We are our own best indicator.
  • #483
  • Sep 22, 2010 4:56pm Sep 22, 2010 4:56pm
Quoting bluemele
Getting ready to close out a couple L1's for losses if the market moves further. Larger account (25K, $1.1 per pip is 6% DD).
BM I asked this before on Bob's thread but guess it was overlooked.

I just wanted to know when you say "you're getting ready to close out some L1 losses" does that mean you close L1 coz you need to open L4 as per the system rules?

Or do you just close L1 simply to cut losing positions without adding as per the recovery instructions?
  • #484
  • Sep 22, 2010 5:33pm Sep 22, 2010 5:33pm
Quoting bluemele
Worst drawdown, 100% ........


I maxed it out to do 28 pairs on 1300.00 with 10 cents to see how bad it would get.
Hi bluemele, It seems you have a good grasp of this system already. I am with my experience where you were with your knowledge in first 3 month, never paid very close attention to this system even if I am playing with it for about couple month but the more I read your post you give me hope that actually we have something here. First question... You have fix take profit? Why? How much? I am asking because I have the nh panel and take profit is atr, that is around 50 pips. Looks like you play better since you can recover your losses- drawdown better....
  • #485
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:14pm Sep 22, 2010 7:14pm
Quoting fugly
BM I asked this before on Bob's thread but guess it was overlooked.

I just wanted to know when you say "you're getting ready to close out some L1 losses" does that mean you close L1 coz you need to open L4 as per the system rules?

Or do you just close L1 simply to cut losing positions without adding as per the recovery instructions?
it depends where things line up....

Sometimes both, sometimes not. That is the discretion in the system.

Usually my L4 will only be opened if the entry looks good, RWB, which is your basic MACD and stoch saying, "Ok, looks good for at least some pips"...

That may or may not line up with needing to get out of a 400 - 600 pips loss on your L1...

If you would have asked this on the other thread, you may have had your head ripped off! haha...
We are our own best indicator.
  • #486
  • Sep 22, 2010 7:19pm Sep 22, 2010 7:19pm
Quoting iulli
Hi bluemele, It seems you have a good grasp of this system already. I am with my experience where you were with your knowledge in first 3 month, never paid very close attention to this system even if I am playing with it for about couple month but the more I read your post you give me hope that actually we have something here. First question... You have fix take profit? Why? How much? I am asking...
I am playing around with this as well. Trying to find the magic combo.

I do it differently dependent upon pairs.

USDJPY, EURGBP and other slow movers, I tend to have smaller increments of what I will type next. GBPJPY, GBPCHF, etc.. will all be a modifier of it.

I use fixed 500 pips profit, with a TP 1 @ 40 pips to BE @ 30 pips and then a 25 pip trailing stop after that for pairs that are in the middle, i.e. EURUSD, AUDUSD, etc..

If you close your L2's out @ BE, that is good, but imagine if you close them out at +150 pips. I do that quite a bit and it sure does pay for some losers.

I follow fib's a lot too. So, I expect it to hit at least the 38% retracement! if I am wrong, boy to I kick myself, but usually I am wrong in the opposite direction. Meaning that it always goes deeper into the retrace and I exited too early.

All of these decisions depend upon how all pairs are moving and current market conditions. I get better and worse daily. haha...

I am glad I can help you guys. I struggle alongside you and wonder if I am doing it right daily as well. haha...
We are our own best indicator.
  • #487
  • Sep 22, 2010 11:32pm Sep 22, 2010 11:32pm
Quoting bluemele
I am playing around with this as well....
I've got a question about the recovery trades. Has anyone ever tested whether an L2 trade is more likely to retrace than an L1 trade? Is there any data that says there is a better edge on the L2 or L3 trades?

Please accept this as an innocent question. I'm simply trying to figure out whether the recovery system works because there is an increase in the trading edge, or whether it depends more on the idea of increasing lot size. As far as I know, Bob never says one way or the other, at least not in his basic documentation.
  • #488
  • Sep 22, 2010 11:46pm Sep 22, 2010 11:46pm
Quoting duffypratt
I've got a question about the recovery trades. Has anyone ever tested whether an L2 trade is more likely to retrace than an L1 trade? Is there any data that says there is a better edge on the L2 or L3 trades?

Please accept this as an innocent question. I'm simply trying to figure out whether the recovery system works because there is an increase in the trading edge, or whether it depends more on the idea of increasing lot size. As far as I know, Bob never says one way or the other, at least not in his basic documentation.
This is strictly my opinion. The direction of a forex currency is a coin-toss. Now it has an edge at certain times while not others right...

As far as a statistical understanding of the chances that it retraces via an L2+ trade over an L1, I think it is simple odds.

I don't believe anyone has done that. You strike me as a guy who needs lots of information to do something. That is fine, we are all wired differently and for you to get really going, you have to understand everything there is about something before you move forward. Great to be like that in forex.

I believe that the chances that a currency runs for 600+ pips is smaller than 200+ pips etc.. You will see that in Bob's spreadsheet for currencies in his zip files on the first post. He goes through all the currencies, how often they go to 'X' pips and so on. You will see as obvious that the % diminishes as the run gets further along etc...

That is how he came up with 2.4.2 I believe and just a good system to recover as the chances of a trade exceeding 600 pips ONCE you already a few hundred pips in the trend is unlikely or I should say, MORE UNLIKELY.

I believe you just have to accept this as a longer term trading method that WILL LOSE! It will not win all the time, you will not get a perfect entry, nor will you always execute the same way when their is discretion at play.

I did a test with an EA I created using 120 bars back and 260 bars back about 2 months ago. I found after many optimizations on 20+ pairs that 260 bars (for the sixths indicator) only improved DD by maybe 15%, but the profits dropped in half!

I think if you move it to 60 bars and to a lower time frame you will find profit much higher, but DD also exponentially higher.

The key I think I would ask myself, why are you so concerned with eliminating drawdown.

Here is a person (BOB) who has been patient and gone through thousands of people evaluating his method that he has worked on many hard nights who trades this not for the money, but for the enjoyment or satisfaction of contributing to others. I saw your comment that you wouldn't share if you did do the work. I have to say, I will not do unto you as you will have done unto me. I will not judge you for your lack of being able to share with others, but those actions infuriate me to the nth degree! I have one word for those actions... SUCKER. I hope you choose not to exhibit those actions in the future...

Do yourself a favor. Stop the noise in your head, trade the system for a month or two, come back and reevaluate. The system works!

Imagine for just an example:

Month 1: -5,000.00 (Oh no!!)
Month 2-7: + 2,000.00
Month 8: -3500.00
Month 9-12: + 3000

Who wouldn't do this system? People who live from fear....
We are our own best indicator.
  • #489
  • Edited 1:49am Sep 23, 2010 1:28am | Edited 1:49am
Quoting bluemele
This is strictly my opinion. The direction of a forex currency is a coin-toss. Now it has an edge at certain times while not others right...
If I agreed with you I wouldn't trade at all. But that's just me. I've struggled with the random walk idea for a long time. If it were true, then over time trading would have to be a losing game, because you would always be playing a game with an expected return of zero while playing the spread. But on this we can easily agree to disagree, I don't think it matters much for the discussion.

Quote
I believe that the chances that a currency runs for 600+ pips is smaller than 200+ pips etc.. You will see that in Bob's spreadsheet for currencies in his zip files on the first post. He goes through all the currencies, how often they go to 'X' pips and so on. You will see as obvious that the % diminishes as the run gets further along etc...

I haven't looked closely yet at the spreadsheets, but I will. Thanks. (Edit: I looked a bit more closely at the spreadsheets. They are very interesting, but don't contain the information I would need to answer my question. It only looks at the number of weeks that the price of a currency moved certain thresholds. That doesn't say anything about whether there was a retracement during those weeks. Believe it or not, I'm not going to worry about this one. It really isn't that important.)

Quote
The key I think I would ask myself, why are you so concerned with eliminating drawdown.

I'm not really that concerned about eliminating drawdown. At least I won't be if I don't have to limit myself to 50:1 leverage with no hedging. The jury is still out on whether we'll really be forced into that. Instead, I was thinking that if there was no additional intrinsic edge to an L2 or L3 trade, then you might accomplish the same sort of recovery simply by increasing lot sizes on new L1 trades.

Quote
I saw your comment that you wouldn't share if you did do the work. I have to say, I will not do unto you as you will have done unto me. I will not judge you for your lack of being able to share with others, but those actions infuriate me to the nth degree!

Perhaps I was being a bit petulant. That happens sometimes. As I said, I'm not as nice a guy as Bob, and that was my main point. Thanks for not judging me, and I hope I don't infuriate you too much.

Quote
Do yourself a favor. Stop the noise in your head, trade the system for a month or two, come back and reevaluate. The system works!

As I wrote to you, I intend to go live with this system in about a month or maybe less. But the noise in my head is not going to stop (except when I'm doing yoga). I'm simply not built that way: perhaps the best I can hope for is that the noise doesn't cause paralysis.
  • #490
  • Sep 23, 2010 4:32am Sep 23, 2010 4:32am
posting here since i can't post on steve's thread.

i know as per bob's instruction that out goal is not to make profit on recovery trades. not sure if this has already been discussed, to put an option to use a trail stop at breakeven (breakeven + X).

the original position can be closed and allow the L2 trade to breathe a little profit. the worst that can happen is it still closes at breakeven.
  • #491
  • Sep 23, 2010 6:04am Sep 23, 2010 6:04am
Quoting bauerjj10
We will see if it breaks the top of that pinbar, it seemed like a picture perfect one, long nose and just about touching a key point of resistance!
Just woke up and checked, basket trade took +10 pips on that pinbar reversal
  • #492
  • Sep 23, 2010 6:35am Sep 23, 2010 6:35am
Guys

I have tried to create a very condensed cheat sheet to fit on one, two-sided A4 sheet.

This is mainly from Marshy's excellent sheets supplemented by other important bits of information and condensed to include the bare essentials. Non of the information on the sheet is mine so I have not improvised in any way.

This is really for people who are or semi-experienced in the system as a quick reference as I am always refering to it as a memory jogger. I keep a hard copy near me at all times.

For newbies, this is in no way a substitute for reading the original documents and the thread thoroughly.

Please have a look and let me know if you think it is useful. I'll be happy to post the original ppt or make modification if you have any ideas. If people find it useful here then I'll post it on the main thread.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf My Cheat Sheet V0.3.pdf   61 KB | 378 downloads
  • #493
  • Sep 23, 2010 6:47am Sep 23, 2010 6:47am
Quoting Zr-fx
Guys

I have tried to create a very condensed cheat sheet to fit on one, two-sided A4 sheet.

This is mainly from Marshy's excellent sheets supplemented by other important bits of information and condensed to include the bare essentials. Non of the information on the sheet is mine so I have not improvised in any way.

This is really for people who are or semi-experienced in the system as a quick reference as I am always refering to it as a memory jogger. I keep a hard copy near me at all times.

For newbies, this is in no way a substitute for...
Thanks for sharing, I will definately use this.
One question.. I can see that the low, med, and high trades are color coded, but are the pairs boxed in with eachother the ones that correlate?
  • #494
  • Sep 23, 2010 6:47am Sep 23, 2010 6:47am
Quoting Zr-fx
Guys

I have tried to create a very condensed cheat sheet to fit on one, two-sided A4 sheet.

This is mainly from Marshy's excellent sheets supplemented by other important bits of information and condensed to include the bare essentials. Non of the information on the sheet is mine so I have not improvised in any way.

This is really for people who are or semi-experienced in the system as a quick reference as I am always refering to it as a memory jogger. I keep a hard copy near me at all times.

For newbies, this is in no way a substitute for...
great! thank you!
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #495
  • Sep 23, 2010 7:09am Sep 23, 2010 7:09am
Quoting bauerjj10
Thanks for sharing, I will definately use this.
One question.. I can see that the low, med, and high trades are color coded, but are the pairs boxed in with eachother the ones that correlate?
No, pairs are listed alphabetically and the boxes simply group the same first currency so I can find them easily on the list and on the dashboard which I also keep in alphabetical order
  • #496
  • Sep 23, 2010 7:20am Sep 23, 2010 7:20am
Ive got a question on the recovery systems. From reading the explanations in the various .PDF documents I found it doesnt make much sense to me the way they are explained.

2.4.2 recovery method:
This is what I would think 242 method means:
With this method one would think if trading .01 lots the levels would equal:
L1 = .01 = 2
L2 = .02 = 4
L3 = .01 = 2
When L4 is reached it would be L4 = .02, and if L5 then L5 = .01

This is how I interpreted the readings of what 242 actually is:
From the readings I read I am supposed to multiply the lot by 1.6
so it would equal:
L1 = .01 = 2
L2 = .02 rounding up = 4
L3 = .03 rounding down = 6

with this method when I reach L4 if I close out my first trade of .01 and place a new trade at L4 it would be L4 = .05??? or would i go back down to L4 = .01
I cant imagine this would be true because it would be Martingale


1.1.3.3 Recovery Method:
With this method I am unsure what to do at level 4.

The reading says that at level 4 you close level one and start over with level 2 being your level 1.

Well if I am to start over level 2 cant possibly be my level one because then level 2 would = 3 and not 1. So is 1.1.3.3 now supposed to be 1.3.3.1? and then at level 5 be 3.3.1.1?

I know it is probably extreme that these recovery systems will ever reach these levels but I need to play the devils advocate and ask what if...

Thanks,
One more question, which method is working best for everyone?
  • #497
  • Sep 23, 2010 8:07am Sep 23, 2010 8:07am
Quoting Zr-fx
Guys

I have tried to create a very condensed cheat sheet to fit on one, two-sided A4 sheet.

This is mainly from Marshy's excellent sheets supplemented by other important bits of information and condensed to include the bare essentials. Non of the information on the sheet is mine so I have not improvised in any way.

This is really for people who are or semi-experienced in the system as a quick reference as I am always refering to it as a memory jogger. I keep a hard copy near me at all times.

For newbies, this is in no way a substitute...
Hey, this is really good. Honestly, I didn't know what 1.1.3.3 was... hahahah.... I guess I am TOOOOO focused..
We are our own best indicator.
  • #498
  • Sep 23, 2010 8:08am Sep 23, 2010 8:08am
[quote=bauerjj10;4043521]Ive got a question on the recovery systems. From reading the explanations in the various .PDF documents I found it doesnt make much sense to me the way they are explained.
....[quote]

I think this is a good question and I admit I got confused and decided to stick with 2.4.2 (as you have described it) with three levels and then tackle L4 if I get there.

Perhaps it is better to post this in the main thread and hopefully Bob would explain it.

I am using 0.01 lots on my live micro account. So far what has worked for me is the 1.6 multiplier, rounded. So L1=0.01, L2=-0.02, L3=0.04.

I have not yet experienced L4 so I am not qualified to give a proffessional opinion but my understanding is if my L3 hits the re-entry line then I have to close L1 and open L4 = 0.06, again using the 1.6 multiplier on the previous L2 which is now L1. So not we have L1=0.02, L2=0.04, L3=0.06

I thought I was getting close to L4 with EurAud but it seems to be reversing now.
  • #499
  • Sep 23, 2010 8:11am Sep 23, 2010 8:11am
[quote=Zr-fx;4043671][quote=bauerjj10;4043521]Ive got a question on the recovery systems. From reading the explanations in the various .PDF documents I found it doesnt make much sense to me the way they are explained.
....
Quote

I think this is a good question and I admit I got confused and decided to stick with 2.4.2 (as you have described it) with three levels and then tackle L4 if I get there.

Perhaps it is better to post this in the main thread and hopefully Bob would explain it.

I am using 0.01 lots on my live micro account. So far what has worked...

L1 = .01
L2 = .02
L3 = .03
L4 = .02
L5 = .03
L6 = .02
L7 = .03

See the pattern... haha...

1.1.3.3

L1 = .01
L2 = .01
L3 = .03
L4 = .03
L5 = ???? NO IDEA... hha...a
We are our own best indicator.
  • #500
  • Sep 23, 2010 8:13am Sep 23, 2010 8:13am
Quoting Zr-fx
I thought I was getting close to L4 with EurAud but it seems to be reversing now.
Man, I really wouldn't trade that pair.. Nor EURNZD.

Go back through history and take a look. Use the stoch sixth that moves and you will find that it just isn't worth it.

You will definitely learn L4.... L5.... L6.... haha...

Your choice, just trying to persuade you from doing the same things that I have already done.
We are our own best indicator.
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