No more BS - What have you learned? | Page 25 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

What have you learned? 231 replies

What I have learned trading & How I developed my system 6 replies

It's been 3 years what have I learned? 82 replies

What Have I Learned Since 2006?? 1 reply

Attachments: No more BS - What have you learned?
Exit Attachments

No more BS - What have you learned?

  • #481
  • Sep 21, 2010 5:43pm Sep 21, 2010 5:43pm
  •  Czech
  • | Joined Feb 2010 | Status: You Don't Know What You Don't Know | 111 Posts
Quoting Turveyd
Candle stick patterns are classic BS, all named by the Chinese to make them sound good, what happens on 1 candle stick gives zero predictive ability to the next and if you slide the start and end time around you'll notice there RANDOMLY formed nothing more. But you still here ohhh my 4H chart had a Pinbar so the market will do X and guess what 50% of the time it will do, doesn't make them right.

Not like the Chinese elders even trade LOL


Since we're talking bout predictive ability,
Here's a 1 year analysis of the major pairs on small timeframes.
One important conclusion drawn from this study is that the spot FX market is weak-form efficient on minute data.

What that means is that "future prices cannot be predicted by analyzing prices from the past" on a small time-frame.

Why do you feel historical prices are informative on the minute charts? And can you substantiate your claims.


Quoting mikkom
How do you think quant funds earn their money?

And yes, some of these funds manage billions.
Trust him, if he can't do it NO one can.
  • #482
  • Sep 21, 2010 5:48pm Sep 21, 2010 5:48pm
Quoting mikkom
How do you think quant funds earn their money?

And yes, some of these funds manage billions.

They use programs to buy and sell, loosely based on my AM's above posted in those chart, but there just telling a system to buy 10,000full lots passively or agressively it's those systems which make most of the market moves we see.

There is no other way they can trade on the kinda volumes they need, the trader doesn't sit there going, another Long another Long.

This is about the only exploit I can find worth a damn and yet you need really small TF's to see / exploit this, why I'm a S10 guy.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #483
  • Edited 6:12pm Sep 21, 2010 5:55pm | Edited 6:12pm
Quoting Turveyd
Well said.

I wasted 6months doing the EA route as I'm a programmer it made sense but there isn't a profitable long term system if there was someone would of found it and we'd all be billionaires and money would be worthless already.

You profitable yet Cindy ?? if not why not ? ( not as a insult, but it seems you might have above average intelligence )

As I say, Average intelligence is not enough to make it as a trader and most people are average.

I wasted about a year litsening to so called "great traders" on this forum and trying to copy what they do - so easy right - I just need to do what they do!

Yes, I'm profitable but not for a long enough period to go and retire off. I have been profitable every week since about Feb this year - something clicked one day and I ran with it with some tweaks here and there, always learning and finding ways to get "the best price". This is one of the keys IMO.

Dont buy on a high after a 30 pip run - its just too late. Scalpers start taking profits and you get whipped, If your buying as things have already moved chances are your just too late IMO. Sure this is a bit generalised casue its not always the case but the moral of the story holds true

The second key I think is to get the smallest SL possible without leaving yourself exposed. In other words - dont let it cost you profitable trades just because you wanted a bigger lot size. Get the wholesale price and know where that is. But at the same time dont try and catch that falling knife.

The thing is I dont have a "system", just an understanding that can be adjusted to different market conditions. The main thing is when I'm wrong its obvious why and same as when I'm right - and tis is where the "understanding" comes from. Theres no magic bullet but certainlly exploitable opportunities and yes I use charts to trade and a data feed and I dont care what you say if you know where the sheep will get slaughtered and whos holding the knife you can trade a chart profitably IMHO

Geez I could say so much but dont want to waffle,

All I know is this isnt a game, like most people weather conciously or not treat it this is real business with real money at stake. The big guys are gonna cut your fingers off when they find them in rummaging around in their pocket you have to think like the predator not the prey and understand ITS A MARKET like any other

If i want you to buy my stereo, what am I going to do? I'm going to tell you its a great buy at a great price, as the seller I NEED YOU TO BELEIEVE THIS and I will do my dambest to make you beleive this. On the flip side if there truly is a great bargain then chances are people have been lined up at the shop for hours to grab it and if your not in that line your just too late,

Ok now I'm waffling but yes I beleieve I have finally found what i was searching for and no its not a holy grail. It is what it is.

I think the best peice of advice I could offer anyone that wants it taht isnt an annoying metaphore is this:

Before you open that trade ask yourself one question:

Would I happily take this trade 100 times over? if the answer is no then you have no trade, just a gamble. (This is based on the fact that you actually have a defined edge and know why it works and why it doesnt)

The answer may be no because you simply dont know enough yet to be confident in any sort of trade . This is fine just dont go and throw your money away because of it. Winners never quit

THE END!
Time hides Nothing
  • #484
  • Sep 21, 2010 5:55pm Sep 21, 2010 5:55pm
Quoting Turveyd
This is about the only exploit I can find worth a damn and yet you need really small TF's to see / exploit this, why I'm a S10 guy.
what can you see on a 10s chart that you can't on a 1m?
  • #485
  • Sep 21, 2010 5:55pm Sep 21, 2010 5:55pm
Quoting Czech
Since we're talking bout predictive ability,
Here's a 1 year analysis of the major pairs on small timeframes.
One important conclusion drawn from this study is that the spot FX market is weak-form efficient on minute data.

What that means is that "future prices cannot be predicted by analyzing prices from the past" on a small time-frame.

Why do you feel historical prices are informative on the minute charts? And can you substantiate your...

Yet again with the predicting, I AM NOT PREDICTING YOU CAN'T PREDICT GET THIS INTO YOUR HEAD, the sooner you do the sooner you'll start to turn a profit.


The shorter the TF you go, the easier it is to spot momentum caused by buy / sell programs, so what I do is see the market is mainly buyers so the direction is UP, this is not a prediction, this is a absolute okay so far ??

If I said, I think the market will go 40pips then that would be a prediction, so I don't do that, I just go with the flow, until the buyers dry up or more sellers come in then I take my profit ( hopefully ) and leave, sometimes it's 2pips up, sometimes it's 40pips up, I have ZERO idea which it will be. Sometimes it reverses 2 seconds after I get in and hits my 10SL inside of seconds ( RARE thankfully )

I have a 80%+ win rate and 10% of those are just stupid trades so you could say 90%+.

And no it doesn't make me rich, it means my very small account is rapidly growing but with my time allowed its going to take months to get to anything even liveable off
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #486
  • Sep 21, 2010 6:00pm Sep 21, 2010 6:00pm
Quoting Turveyd
They use programs to buy and sell, loosely based on my AM's above posted in those chart, but there just telling a system to buy 10,000full lots passively or agressively it's those systems which make most of the market moves we see.

There is no other way they can trade on the kinda volumes they need, the trader doesn't sit there going, another Long another Long.

This is about the only exploit I can find worth a damn and yet you need really small TF's to see / exploit this, why I'm a S10 guy.
It's worth reading a bit about the subject if you really are interested in algo trading. What you are saying above is quite incorrect.
  • #487
  • Sep 21, 2010 6:00pm Sep 21, 2010 6:00pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
I wasted about a year litsening to so called "great traders" on this forum and trying to copy what they do - so easy right - I just need to do what they do!

Yes, I'm profitable but not for a long enough period to go and retire off. I have been profitable every week since about Feb this year - something clicked one day and I ran with it with some tweaks here and there, always learning and finding ways to get "the best price". This is one of the keys IMO.

Dont buy on a high after a 30 pip run - its just too late. Scalpers start taking profits...
Hey I believe you, your in a similar boat to me, so have a V I think you deserve it

I'm entirely chart based, I don't read candles and I'm amazed how well my latest WMA setting on the S10 chart, scarily accurate, big players are using it in some form or another thankfully for me, or I'd be trading randomness and getting random results still
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #488
  • Sep 21, 2010 6:04pm Sep 21, 2010 6:04pm
Quoting Monroe
what can you see on a 10s chart that you can't on a 1m?

Order flow at it's most basic level ( okay Tick is most basic ), which them forms M1 charts ( and there random candles ), which then forms H4 charts ( and there random candles ).

Study these charts and how the price interacts with the MA's I've used ( these aren't tweaked after the event )

Count how many times the price found Support or Resistance on the 66ema line ( Blue ) on both charts and show me anything else that offers that kinda success rate.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Pretty Picture.jpg Size: 171 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: pretty pic 2.jpg Size: 173 KB
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #489
  • Sep 21, 2010 6:07pm Sep 21, 2010 6:07pm
Quoting Turveyd
Hey I believe you, your in a similar boat to me, so have a V I think you deserve it

I'm entirely chart based, I don't read candles and I'm amazed how well my latest WMA setting on the S10 chart, scarily accurate, big players are using it in some form or another thankfully for me, or I'd be trading randomness and getting random results still
Speaking of randomness one more thing

If you want consistant results then do something but do it CONSISTANTLY

Doing random things - your exit strategy in particular will get you random results.

Something Ive learnt anyway - hey thanks for the vouch - oh no I'm slowly turning into one of "them"!
Time hides Nothing
  • #490
  • Sep 21, 2010 6:07pm Sep 21, 2010 6:07pm
Quoting mikkom
It's worth reading a bit about the subject if you really are interested in algo trading. What you are saying above is quite incorrect.

In your opinion, are you sure you've not read some BS about how they trade ??

I'm not on about the high speed trading places setup right next to exchanges to expliot faster execution than anyone else, thats smart though.

Saying that I was doing that a few years back, I found a Meta feed which FXCM followed 1 to 2 seconds later, it helped, but FXCM improved and removed the lag and dumped there guaranteed quote, it was awesome at news time, get best price after the move had started
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #491
  • Sep 21, 2010 6:08pm Sep 21, 2010 6:08pm
Quoting Czech
the spot FX market is weak-form efficient on minute data.

What that means is that "future prices cannot be predicted by analyzing prices from the past" on a small time-frame.

Why do you feel historical prices are informative on the minute charts? And can you substantiate your claims.
Trust him, if he can't do it NO one can.
That's a good one.
What you can't program, you can't believe.

It's only logical the 1'TF works better, since it has more data.
Perspective on a single, low TF is just, well, tougher. A weak spot, to be sure. Get up close when the chart is trapped between prices, though, and the 1' is invaluable and reasonably easy.

1-tick charts are the ultimate; it's just not widely available.
  • #492
  • Sep 21, 2010 6:09pm Sep 21, 2010 6:09pm
  •  Czech
  • | Joined Feb 2010 | Status: You Don't Know What You Don't Know | 111 Posts
Quoting Turveyd
Yet again with the predicting, I AM NOT PREDICTING YOU CAN'T PREDICT GET THIS INTO YOUR HEAD, the sooner you do the sooner you'll start to turn a profit.
Turveyd, if we're going to have an intelligent discussion, you can't just re-define English words. You are predicting in every sense of the word. The sooner you get that into your head the sooner we can move on. If you weren't predicting then the outcome of your trades would be absolute.

When you place a buy order, you are predicting that your 10 pip SL will not be hit or else you would not place the trade. As you pointed out, your predictions are sometimes, albeit rarely, wrong. If they were not predictions, you would never be wrong and you would always have 0 draw down. You would sell at tops and buy at bottoms.

And to reiterate one more time. Just because you don't have a pre-defined TP does not mean you aren't making predictions. You're just making soft predictions such as "price will continue in this direction, for how long i can't be sure"

Quote
so what I do is see the market is mainly buyers so the direction is UP, this is not a prediction, this is a absolute okay so far ??

Allow me to clarify this for you. In your example the market was moving up IN THE PAST. You can observe in your chart that price had been moving up. What you cannot determine from looking at your chart is when price is finished moving up. You're making predictions based on what happened in the past.
  • #493
  • Sep 21, 2010 6:12pm Sep 21, 2010 6:12pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Speaking of randomness one more thing

If you want consistant results then do something but do it CONSISTANTLY

Doing random things - your exit strategy in particular will get you random results.

Something Ive learnt anyway - hey thanks for the vouch

Anytime on the Vouch, hope you get to riches 1 day sadly it takes time, they don't just go hey 4 winners in a row have as much money as you want

Most people are confused by randomness, there system appears to works because it worked then, or you can see historically it's working great, they don't understand that live there are 100's of bottoms in every down trend where you could go long and it'll hurt you, so your odds are much better not looking for a bottom, but just going short.

Sadly everyone is looking for reversals and when it bites them, it's just bad luck so they keep repeating and blowing there accounts.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #494
  • Sep 21, 2010 6:15pm Sep 21, 2010 6:15pm
Quoting Turveyd
Anytime on the Vouch, hope you get to riches 1 day sadly it takes time, they don't just go hey 4 winners in a row have as much money as you want

Most people are confused by randomness, there system appears to works because it worked then, or you can see historically it's working great, they don't understand that live there are 100's of bottoms in every down trend where you could go long and it'll hurt you, so your odds are much better not looking for a bottom, but just going short.

Sadly everyone is looking for reversals and when it bites...
I think people just forget its a MARKET not a video game. Learn to spot a bargain, that simple. Its competitive and you just gotta be on your game
Time hides Nothing
  • #495
  • Sep 21, 2010 6:17pm Sep 21, 2010 6:17pm
Quoting Turveyd
Order flow at it's most basic level ( okay Tick is most basic ), which them forms M1 charts ( and there random candles ), which then forms H4 charts ( and there random candles ).

Study these charts and how the price interacts with the MA's I've used ( these aren't tweaked after the event )

Count how many times the price found Support or Resistance on the 66ema line ( Blue ) on both charts and show me anything else that offers that kinda success rate.
a 6/7 EMA on a 1M?

what you're doing is a way to trade the market, and i am not saying you can not be profitable that way, but, is it really the EMA/WMA's? you could put all kinds of MA's on a 10s and find it looks like it holds support. Me personally, I would never rely on it. That may be basic order flow, but that's just liquidity providers moving around prices in shades... it's bound to fuck you, and that move is what I look for.

What times are you usually getting the best results?

I see no difference in a 10s or 1m chart except that the zoom level is way too close, even when there's volume. That's just me though.
  • #496
  • Sep 21, 2010 6:18pm Sep 21, 2010 6:18pm
Quoting Czech
Turveyd, if we're going to have an intelligent discussion, you can't just re-define English words. You are predicting in every sense of the word. The sooner you get that into your head the sooner we can move on. If you weren't predicting then the outcome of your trades would be absolute.

When you place a buy order, you are predicting that your 10 pip SL will not be hit or else you would not place the trade. As you pointed out, your predictions are sometimes, albeit rarely, wrong. If they were not predictions, you would never be wrong and...

Seriously NO, every time I try to predict cause it's a tricky mindset to get out of I FAIL as easy as that.

Yes the market IS moving UP for instance, I purely understand a object in motion generally stays in motion thats the effect the buying / selling pressures which change hence can't predict have on the markets.

I HAVE Zero idea, if it'll continue up 1 more pip or stall and reverse on me, I purely react to what ever it does.

My momentum setup generally has enough strength behind it to get me to profitable with a few pips in the bag, not always and the effect of being in the game on those moves increases my odds on some of the moves going 40pips+, it's entirely a numbers game.

Sometimes I miss read the direction rarely but always due to impatient, if I removed that I'd be 95%+ winners seriously. As is 80% winners.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #497
  • Sep 21, 2010 6:22pm Sep 21, 2010 6:22pm
Quoting Monroe
a 6/7 EMA on a 1M?

what you're doing is a way to trade the market, and i am not saying you can not be profitable that way, but, is it really the EMA/WMA's? you could put all kinds of MA's on a 10s and find it looks like it holds support. Me personally, I would never rely on it. That may be basic order flow, but that's just liquidity providers moving around prices in shades... it's bound to fuck you, and that move is what I look for.

What times are you usually getting the best results?

I see no difference in a 10s or 1m chart except that the...
66ema on s10 is a 11ema on a M1 but with more accuracy in short.

Best times are the bigger the market swings, ie the better the odds on your getting a 30+ pip move, if your only getting 5pip swings don't bother, so 8am GMT then 2:30pm gmt just after the usa opens, I prefer to wait to a direction forms then I jump on that after pull backs which are easy to see.

for instance, price moves under my 66ema then moves back over thats a pretty good high odds setup.

My setup relies on 2 things which is KEY to trading of all sorts.

1. Let your profit run, without being greedy.
2. Kill your losers ASAP, yes they could turn back up, but the odds are they won't.

If you stop trading effectively because your worried about the spread, your in the wrong line of work, give up.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #498
  • Sep 21, 2010 6:27pm Sep 21, 2010 6:27pm
Quoting Turveyd
66ema on s10 is a 11ema on a M1 but with more accuracy in short.

Best times are the bigger the market swings, ie the better the odds on your getting a 30+ pip move, if your only getting 5pip swings don't bother, so 8am GMT then 2:30pm gmt just after the usa opens, I prefer to wait to a direction forms then I jump on that after pull backs which are easy to see.

for instance, price moves under my 66ema then moves back over thats a pretty good high odds setup.
yes 11ema, exactly is what i meant, sorry.

cool sounds good man, I used to do something similar, still do sometimes but no longer need to use such small timeframe charts... I thought that was an edge at one time, now I do not think so.

I go for 20-30ticks a trade now, and usually I'm fading.
  • #499
  • Sep 21, 2010 6:30pm Sep 21, 2010 6:30pm
Quoting Monroe
yes 11ema, exactly is what i meant, sorry.

cool sounds good man, I used to do something similar, still do sometimes but no longer need to use such small timeframe charts... I thought that was an edge at one time, now I do not think so.

Just might not work for you, discovering a S10 chart for free really turned my trading along, sadly work and other commitments means I wasted 8months without 1 trade shortly after going S10 but thats life.

I'm a detail / maths guy, I'll take as much detail as I can. ( Market isn't fluid enough for S5 and can't put on the WMA480 ie a 960 as 500 is the limit ). Not that my candles are visible as there randomly formed so not much point
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #500
  • Sep 21, 2010 6:33pm Sep 21, 2010 6:33pm
it worked, just don't need it , as I have found. keep it as simple as I can, why have a 10s chart up when I dont need it, you know?
0 traders viewing now