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I usually base my determination on H1 ... using HH, HL for up and LH, LL down

EDIT: GJ right now is difficult to determine as shown on H4 mini. We could be at a turning point Upward but H1 has been moving down. Daily and H4 give us more of a clue here. Also daily has a bearish signal in the form of a pin bar that we need to be aware of.

thank you. is that the "furthest" time frame you will go out to? what if h4 and d1 were showing an uptrend. would you still go long, even-though, h1 is on a downtrend?

that would be a difficult situation as ideally I want D1, H4, H1 to be indicating same direction. In the situation you say, I would likely follow what H1 is telling me but being very cautious as I know I'm against the larger time frames.

I haven't looked at ADX ... could be worth studying.

I usually use it as part of trading the THV method. Posted a lot of trades on that thread as examples, it has made me a some good pips.

A good book to look at is ADXcelence

Thanks for posting all these charts stratman.

Just a couple of comments - on GBPJPY, my analysis has found that the swings on H1 usually run out of puff after 100 pips or so. That's the most one should expect for any trade on this pair if you enter at the start of the London session. However, I think a good rule of thumb with GBPJPY is to exit at around the 50 pip and round number price levels. In all likelihood price will hesitate there. If you're brave perhaps be ready with your finger on the trigger should price bounce back further than 10 pips on whichever side you started on.

i.e. If you entered short at 134.40 and price has dropped to 134.00, be ready to exit should price rebound more than 134.10 as it will probably keep on going. It's probably better just to get out, in my opinion. You could always try and trade the retest.

As for your examples - I'm curious if you take entries purely off breaks in longer term trend-lines, or if you still mostly wait for SMA60 bounces? Also, do you ever use correlation with other pairs as a consideration in your trades, the way I've illustrated in a few charts?

Finally, on exits - it has been suggested that we might be better off scaling out of our position. Perhaps taking off half when we feel like the trade has run out of steam (say with a rough target of around 15 pips) and then moving the stop to breakeven to let the rest run. You probably have a decent number of trades on which you could do some proper statistical analysis. Perhaps it might be an idea to keep an excel journal of your trades, recording the highest pip gain possible per trade should you have not exited when you did.

Edit: I wanted to add - I had exactly the same problem as you yesterday. Once I had lost a few pips I felt like I needed to make more to cover the loss and hit my target for the day. Perhaps a good approach would be to sit the day out if your first trade is a loss. It can really hurt your decision-making.

Haven't seen volatility this low for a long time

EDIT: Wrong Picture

It seems to me that there are two opposing forces on the yen pairs at the moment. On the one side we have the BOJ, ready to intervene if the currency rises too far. On the other side, we have China threatening to buy Japanese bonds to drive the yen up. A tricky situation to be sure.

What I get from that is 50-100 for GJ and 30-60 for GU


Great if the two ideas are combined, but either will do ... as long as we have enough distance to a trend line or SMA60 to profit before hesitation occurs ... maybe at least the minimum of the ranges above? (30 for GU ... 50 for GJ as an idea)

EDIT: That should say 133 SR

EJ has just bolted short .. if we consider correlation ... GJ may follow

I've also noticed that the first 123 setup at around 6:30GMT on GY tends to be a good one. Especially if you enter aggressively at the 3 (at the 50% or 61.8% fib or M5/M15 SMA60 or 50/100 pip price point).

Edit: Yep just saw that! Waiting for a retrace...

Edit: Quick long scalp from SR zone on GBPJPY between 132.805-132.867 after momentum ran out. Similar SR line marked on EURJPY at 111.602 and 111.688. Got out at +9.

Very quick scalp on GU for +5 pips ... EJ, GJ and EU had all moved short and GU was still thinking about it. So entered based partly on this correlation.

Correlation is fun

Next step, waiting for a retrace on GY to around 133.06-133.10 before looking for a short setup.

Do you agree with this assessment stratman?

Hm price has kept on going too far for my liking. Continuation setup is probably a bit risky at this point.

The 123 setup at the start of the session was pure gold. (Vertical red line is marking my later long scalp for +9)

My take on EURJPY at the moment is that someone is loading up on short positions. I could be very wrong... but the 123 move up looks like a trap. Price is wavering just above the previous high.

Edit: Just wrote up this image



Edit: Lol. How wrong I was. Perhaps they were loading up on longs

Parabolic shapes suggest that momentum is running out. They seem to mark a good point at which to look for trend reversal signals, don't you think?

Also, a follow-up to my prior (wrong) prediction:

Another chart I watch occassionally ... I should watch more

You can see why EU has gained ... Typically GU would go opposite $index as well ... this indicates a lot of weakness in the pound right now?

There's enough of a messy picture across the charts for me to stand aside for now. I have made up a loss from yesterday and gained some for today .. even though my internet keeps dropping out and my PC has crashed twice during trading tonight ... thankfully I always enter with my 10 pip stop




EDIT: heres the link http://www.forexpros.com/quotes/us-d...advanced-chart