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  • #2,341
  • Sep 20, 2010 3:21pm Sep 20, 2010 3:21pm
I added a green arrow where I would prefer to enter. It wouldn't have been a great trade but it is an entry I look for

Attached Image


Quoting Mindsphere
Thanks for weighing in on this one stratman. Helps to clarify a few things for me. I'm wondering if you can explain the second of those entries though as per the folllowing image. Is it because the break of the TL (as I've drawn it below) would be at a similar entry price to the previous TL break or is there some other reason?

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  • #2,342
  • Sep 20, 2010 3:29pm Sep 20, 2010 3:29pm
The main thing for me is to not enter on the break ie wait for a pull-back again and enter on the break of the break

Quoting stratman
I added a green arrow where I would prefer to enter. It wouldn't have been a great trade but it is an entry I look for

Attachment
  • #2,343
  • Sep 20, 2010 4:31pm Sep 20, 2010 4:31pm
Quoting stratman
The main thing for me is to not enter on the break ie wait for a pull-back again and enter on the break of the break
That makes sense. So you wait for a mini-TL to be broken, but then expect a retest (as they often come). What you want to see is a rejection of the mini-TL to ensure that the break was not a fakeout. Is that a good summary?

On a more general note, upon reviewing my trading stuff-ups yesterday I think I would be better off concentrating on getting one or two really good trades on GBPJPY rather than a whole bunch of small scalps. I believe this is an approach you are mostly using as well stratman. In my limited experience with GBPJPY it seems that if you can get a good entry at the beginning of the London session, you should be able to ride it for at least 20-30 pips. Risking ~1% per 10 pips that should deliver you around 2-3% account growth daily if you can achieve these good entries with consistency.

I think, for the next week or so, I will concentrate on taking only the very best setups at the start of the London session. If I get stopped out on the first two, I'll cease trading for the day. If M1 is not looking promising at all I'll close out the trades, but otherwise I'm looking for 20-30 pip runs.
  • #2,344
  • Sep 20, 2010 6:45pm Sep 20, 2010 6:45pm
Yes the 20-30 pip runs are the ones I am after. I often fill my pip basket with one good trade.

Trading on pull-back after a break certainly reduces the number of fake-out entries. It may mean you miss a few good trades but at least you don't get too many losers.

Never get upset over missing a good move ... be happy because you have very few losing trades. Consistently growing our accounts is the key.

I find my entries are good ie every entry I take goes into profit at least 5 pips ... my only problem is my exit. I find it really difficult to exit as I want more out of every trade. I like to get 15+ pips in a trade. So I have a lot of trades with a small number of pips on the table that I end up leaving behind.

This tendency of mine gets worse when I am below the highest equity level of my account, I have a tendency to hold onto my trades even longer as I want to get back what has been lost. Yesterday, I had a trade at +20 pips but didn't exit because I had already had a 10 pip loser and 2 other 8 pip losers ie I was holding out to get +26 pips.

I ended closing that trade for +3 pips. How stupid am I? This is certainly something I personally need to work on.

Quoting Mindsphere
That makes sense. So you wait for a mini-TL to be broken, but then expect a retest (as they often come). What you want to see is a rejection of the mini-TL to ensure that the break was not a fakeout. Is that a good summary?

On a more general note, upon reviewing my trading stuff-ups yesterday I think I would be better off concentrating on getting one or two really good trades on GBPJPY rather than a whole bunch of small scalps. I believe this is an approach you are mostly using as well stratman. In my limited experience with GBPJPY it seems that...
  • #2,345
  • Sep 20, 2010 7:05pm Sep 20, 2010 7:05pm
would it help if there was a way to figure out, for the exits, historically (say for the last 3 months) what price has done at a certain point. so for example, say stratman you are 20 pips up on g/j and based on, say, the 1hr time frame, it slows significantly (on the 25th pip mark). we then could know, based on the last 3 months (statistical average) it's probably a very good idea to exit.

would this be useful? if so, i have a colleague that is a math wiz that could probably figure this out rather quickly.

Quoting stratman
Yes the 20-30 pip runs are the ones I am after....
  • #2,346
  • Sep 20, 2010 7:07pm Sep 20, 2010 7:07pm
This is what I mean about holding on. I am about to move my stop. My dilema is whether to exit at the point I show or do I hold on.

On way to approach this is to exit where I say, then if we get a break and pull-back of the trend line, we can enter again short.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-09-21_1158-EJ.png Size: 93 KB


Quoting stratman
Yes the 20-30 pip runs are the ones I am after....
  • #2,347
  • Sep 20, 2010 7:10pm Sep 20, 2010 7:10pm
I know this for GU ... typical swings are 30-60 pips (M15) ... it can be much bigger on GJ but I need to do maths ... if someone else can do it as well .. .would be helpful

Quoting samk090905
would it help if there was a way to figure out, for the exits, historically (say for the last 3 months) what price has done at a certain point. so for example, say stratman you are 20 pips up on g/j and based on, say, the 1hr time frame, it slows significantly (on the 25th pip mark). we then could know, based on the last 3 months (statistical average) it's probably a very good idea to exit.

would this be useful? if so, i have a colleague that is a math wiz that could probably figure this out rather quickly.
  • #2,348
  • Sep 20, 2010 7:18pm Sep 20, 2010 7:18pm
great. but if we just have a "range" for say m15 wouldn't we be limiting ourselves?

wouldn't we want calculation, a statistical average, for at least an hour from the point we take the trade just be on the safe side? to know how much it can go up and down from the point we take the trade? for example, say we enter short on g/j at 11:00 am. wouldn't it be helpful to have a statistical average from 11 to 12? kind of like a road map?



Quoting stratman
I know this for GU ... typical swings are 30-60 pips (M15) ... it can be much bigger on GJ but I need to do maths ... if someone else can do it as well .. .would be helpful
  • #2,349
  • Sep 20, 2010 7:25pm Sep 20, 2010 7:25pm
The green arrows on end is what I look for to enter.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-09-21_1222-EJ.png Size: 60 KB
  • #2,350
  • Sep 20, 2010 7:32pm Sep 20, 2010 7:32pm
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  • #2,351
  • Sep 20, 2010 7:33pm Sep 20, 2010 7:33pm
not sure how good this is but my colleague calculated that e/j will not go lower then 111.6610 (good until 0400). not sure how good this is but i think this would be a good gauge, if we can refine this.



Quoting stratman
The green arrows on end is what I look for to enter.

Attachment
  • #2,352
  • Sep 20, 2010 7:33pm Sep 20, 2010 7:33pm
Quoting stratman
This is what I mean about holding on. I am about to move my stop. My dilema is whether to exit at the point I show or do I hold on.

On way to approach this is to exit where I say, then if we get a break and pull-back of the trend line, we can enter again short.

Attachment

ADX Indicator

I usually monitor the ADX on the M1 and the M15 Chart(Current Chrt) after the order is placed... I watch the DI for the Direction and the ADX for the Strength. DI starting to cross will give the heads up, confirmed by the weekend ADX strength.


It works great for me
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-09-20_2027.png Size: 75 KB
  • #2,353
  • Sep 20, 2010 7:40pm Sep 20, 2010 7:40pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-09-21_1236-EJ.png Size: 62 KB
  • #2,354
  • Sep 20, 2010 7:46pm Sep 20, 2010 7:46pm
welcome back tread...long time no hear.

Quoting Tread
ADX Indicator

I usually monitor the ADX on the M1 and the M15 Chart(Current Chrt) after the order is placed... I watch the DI for the Direction and the ADX for the Strength. DI starting to cross will give the heads up, confirmed by the weekend ADX strength.


It works great for me
  • #2,355
  • Sep 20, 2010 7:48pm Sep 20, 2010 7:48pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-09-21_1245-EJ.png Size: 70 KB
  • #2,356
  • Sep 20, 2010 7:55pm Sep 20, 2010 7:55pm
Now we are watching for a lower high to be formed below our stop (112 round number.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-09-21_1250-EJ.png Size: 76 KB
  • #2,357
  • Sep 20, 2010 8:03pm Sep 20, 2010 8:03pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-09-21_1300-EJ.png Size: 66 KB
  • #2,358
  • Sep 20, 2010 8:13pm Sep 20, 2010 8:13pm
As you can see from this chart, that previous trade was counter-trend so not recommended ... I was wanting to show you how I enter a trade ... cost me a few pips but hope you got benefit from it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-09-21_1311-EJ.png Size: 47 KB
  • #2,359
  • Sep 20, 2010 8:32pm Sep 20, 2010 8:32pm
isn't counter-trend relative? was your trade ct to daily, 4h, 1h, m30, or m15?

thank you,


Quoting stratman
As you can see from this chart, that previous trade was counter-trend so not recommended ... I was wanting to show you how I enter a trade ... cost me a few pips but hope you got benefit from it.

Attachment
  • #2,360
  • Sep 20, 2010 8:34pm Sep 20, 2010 8:34pm
An overview of the market is important before you enter trades. Here's what I consider about GJ right now ... I would stand aside based on what I can determine here.

These days, I don't trade the Asian session but I will make an analysis of GJ, EJ and GU like this. NOTE: I would not normally have entered the previous EJ trade ... it was done as an example. Reason to not enter would be that we are in Asian session and volatility. This usually means low volume and so technical analysis on lower time frames is not very accurate. It doesn't take much for an institutional trader to move the market during low volume.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-09-21_1318-GJ.png Size: 119 KB
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