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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #19,041
  • Sep 17, 2010 9:13am Sep 17, 2010 9:13am
Quoting Setebos
Hi guys,

in case any of you is wondering what's the hot deal for today that's causing the risk OFF situation: Traders say Ireland CDS now at all time wides 415/435bps. Rumor on the street is they will turn to the IMF for help.
Also: GREEK-GERMAN 10-YR BOND YIELD SPREAD WIDENS 4 BPS TO 911 BPS. You can always count on those two to throw the shit at the fan

Rgrds
S
Thanx for your insights.
Much appreaciated.
  • #19,042
  • Sep 17, 2010 10:47am Sep 17, 2010 10:47am
Hi again,

awhile back somebody asked for a definition of a trend or was it PA?
Not sure at the moment.

However especially for PA please read the following postings by PipsEasy ...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1383

Cu,
MAMood
  • #19,043
  • Sep 17, 2010 11:02am Sep 17, 2010 11:02am
And especially for Stan:


1558 GMT [Dow Jones] No shortage of items to drive gold higher these days. "Currency debasement, deleveraging, quantitative easing, deflationary risk, inflationary risk, consumer demand, financial crisis, sovereign debt risk, geopolitical risk, asset allocation needs, along with increased accessibility and ease of ownership via ETFs combined with the overall increase of uncertainty have all joined to aid and abet the precious metal's persistent run to the stars," Ticonderoga's John Stoltzfus writes. And Japan's move to weaken the yen likely added more fuel, as "intervention challenged the yen's tenure or status as an alternative currency or near safe-haven asset," he adds. ([email protected])

DIsclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)
  • #19,044
  • Sep 17, 2010 12:02pm Sep 17, 2010 12:02pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi again,

awhile back somebody asked for a definition of a trend or was it PA?
Not sure at the moment.

However especially for PA please read the following postings by PipsEasy ...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1383

Cu,
MAMood

MaMood,

IMHO.... for me i read it and its

Too much analysis = paralysis....

and too many confirmations needed......

again just giving my input.....and his post seems little fishy to me thats all...


V
  • #19,045
  • Sep 17, 2010 12:18pm Sep 17, 2010 12:18pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
MaMood,

IMHO.... for me i read it and its

Too much analysis = paralysis....

and too many confirmations needed......

again just giving my input.....and his post seems little fishy to me thats all...


V
Hi Vick,

thanx for your comment.

Yeah - would call it "chart reading extreme".
But I thought it would the beginners some idea, what could be read out of the candles ...

But again thanx for your comment/warning!

Wish you a relaxing weekend!

Cu,
Niels
  • #19,046
  • Sep 17, 2010 12:30pm Sep 17, 2010 12:30pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi Vick,

thanx for your comment.

Yeah - would call it "chart reading extreme".
But I thought it would the beginners some idea, what could be read out of the candles ...

But again thanx for your comment/warning!

Wish you a relaxing weekend!

Cu,
Niels
U too friend.....

have a great relaxing weekend....

V
  • #19,047
  • Sep 17, 2010 12:49pm Sep 17, 2010 12:49pm
Quoting MaMood
And especially for Stan:


[indent][i]1558 GMT [Dow Jones] No shortage of items to drive gold higher these days. "Currency debasement, deleveraging, quantitative easing, deflationary risk, inflationary risk, consumer demand, financial crisis, sovereign debt risk, geopolitical risk, asset allocation needs, along with increased accessibility and ease of ownership via ETFs combined with the overall increase of uncertainty have all joined to aid and abet the precious metal's persistent run to the stars," Ticonderoga's John Stoltzfus writes. And...
There's always a reason for something to be happening, isn't it, LOL, just ask the press I love the way they always find explainations for whatever is happening, but only after it's already a fact

For me personally unless you are looking to to invest (i.e. buy physical gold in bullions and hold it on the long run) there's no real need to look at anything else but the charts. As a matter of fact it would be better not to look into anything else, especially if one's relatively new to the markets. This may work as a disclaimer too

Have a gread weekend Niels, the week for us in Europe is over, it's time to leave the battlestations and go find ourselves another challenge in the real live

Best
Stan
  • #19,048
  • Sep 17, 2010 4:24pm Sep 17, 2010 4:24pm
Quoting Atomic_Sheep
I think the biggest problem I have lies in my arrogance... i keep thinking i can predict the markets. This is due to my retail based level of knowledge i.e. since I don't have access to big boys information such as phone calls from clients buying this or that, I don't really have a good picture about exactly how much a certain amount of volume can affect prices. I compensate this by just making a decision and sticking with it... and these decisions are very simple... if price is going up, I sell, if it's going down, I buy i.e. I'm contrarian but...
Hi Atomic_Sheep

Arrogance ... fear gives birth to arrogance, you want to know what nobody knows.Why worry?
Mind undulates like a snake, Market undulates like a snake (up and down) ... how to make this snake stick (("crutch"-support for you) makes sense?
Medicine against fear.Welles Wilder provides money management, management positions and your maximum "pain threshold" - you must have ("panic threshold" is also important).
Then use "big guys are wrong turn and little boys are afraid of turbulence".You have to know how great the turbulence you'll survive (WW).
How long time to be the trend?Your or my? (your MM-turbulence)."Daily" chart for trend and "five minutes" for management positions.
Use a very quickly reaction ("atomic" ) modus operandi. which gives you the opportunity to quickly turn = large positions are short-lived and small positions are longer-lived.You can burn all candle at both ends or every third and maximum of seven = your "reading chart" ...

Maybe now you have less fear ... but there are a lot more ...

Rgs
  • #19,049
  • Sep 17, 2010 7:08pm Sep 17, 2010 7:08pm
Hi,

first i should introduce myself, my name is Mike I'm 20 years old I'm student and consistently profitable trader wanabe ) I was wondering if i should post here because i consider myself as a total newbie in this method, but i've seen that you all are very kind here and helpful....


I want to thank fti for awesome work here and really valuable informations which he shares here, it's really fantastic fti what you done and i'm sure it already helped a lot of traders and i hope that the Lord will give it all back to you and i would at least buy you a best wine in te shop for your generous efforts

So here is a little of my story about fx trading....i saw thing about investing, shares, futures in my early 16 and it really amazed me so much that I began to study it very deeply, I was studying and studying, always learning something new and I was amazed about articles which were saying that you can be milionaire very quickly and how it's exciting to do almost nothing and to earn so much money...it seemed to be soo easy and i was so dumb that i really believed to all this stuff (heh Gro you surely knows what czech website i'm talking about ), i was sure that i will make it in two years. Then i found some charting software for commodities and i began to "backtest" coffe with my strategy it was sth like Triple screen from Elder's Trading for a living...of course it was perfect in that backtests because i saw what i wanted to see and i was excited much more and i was feeling like : Yes I've got it....

then one year later i've heard about forex and i liked the big leverage free charting and so on, i've found MT4 and again i was testing,backtesting trying new indicators (lol i still have around 200 in MT4 )....and this took two another years again again and again....after 3 years of hard work and sadness i've realised that it won't be so easy....then i found out that i should put all indicators away and trade more discretionary with SR,TL's,chanells, fibo's and so on, i've found J16 but with all of this i was always on BE - i have live account for few months but i'm not porfitable yet, i sometimes make some money then i lose it and so on....

then i've got the job on institutional level, in one bank in its dealing room, i'm on metrodesk so i deal most of time for customers and options most of time, but i'm sitting right next to FX dealers and i've seen a lot and they told me a lot...just today i was talking with one of the best dealers there and he told me too that TA is really fallancy, that it works sometimes but sometimes not and a lot of participation the robots and machines have now and it's really unpredictable that movements...he also told me that if somebody ask him about "what do you think about eurusd" he answers that he don't have a clue ...he is trading most of time cable and he told me how he's doing that...it's VERY SIMILAR style like you fti....well not in concrete ways but he often snowballs his positions and averanging a lot....he knows his market and do well....

I've been here in TAF thread maybe a one year ago and i've read around 200 pages but i don't know why but i've left it here becasue i still believed that there is a simple way of doing it with TA and so on...i regret it very much and ask myself where i could be with my dancing if i stayed here...

now i'm back and taking it much more seriously, reading very carefully, making my own word document : lol it is more than 50 pages now and i'not very far and i'm translating AOW to my language to better understand it all ( and btw Gro i don't like that czech translation i was comparising it with english version and i saw there much differencies, that czech version is translated like some sort of poem )....now i feel that i'm improving every day and sometimes i hope i will make it(at least i will never give up) and i will learn how to dance...

once again thanks to you all, because you all are doing great work....

PS: it's my longest post on FF, but I know that i've picked the best thread for this ocassion, and sorry if it was boring for you

With regards Mike.
  • #19,050
  • Sep 17, 2010 11:44pm Sep 17, 2010 11:44pm
Quoting katrooo
Hi,

first i should introduce myself, my name is Mike I'm 20 years old I'm student and consistently profitable trader wanabe ) I was wondering if i should post here because i consider myself as a total newbie in this method, but i've seen that you all are very kind here and helpful.......

Let me welcome u to TAF family.....

V
  • #19,051
  • Sep 18, 2010 2:50am Sep 18, 2010 2:50am
Quoting MaMood
Hmmh - there are some topics that come spontanously to my mind
(may not in sync with fti's opinion. But he can comment your approach by himself):

1. from my point of Trading contrarian or on dealer mode is not per se against the principles of fti'S mode of trading. You can still stick to the flow and respec all his elaborations about Risk and MM. But you will need really deep pockets not to get wiped out, when the move will go much further as you may have expected.

2. Not feeling the flow/music is not a problem. It will most probably come...
Hi MaMood, I see what you're saying, mostly agree with it also. I'm trying to work on those areas, got some ideas on how to reverse my habits on some of them. I think overall, I've got quite a bit of screen time, I've just got a few of the other factors inhibiting my experience at the moment.
  • #19,052
  • Sep 18, 2010 3:46am Sep 18, 2010 3:46am
Quoting katrooo
Hi,

first i should introduce myself, my name is Mike I'm 20 years old I'm student and consistently profitable trader wanabe ) I was wondering if i should post here because i consider myself as a total newbie in this method, but i've seen that you all are very kind here and helpful.......
Welcome in the thread katrooo

"AOW ... like some sort of poem" trade is not an exact science but the "poem"

PS FTI has provided "enlightenment" AOW, lesson 1, 2 ... + other romances form a whole

Rgs
  • #19,053
  • Sep 18, 2010 4:35am Sep 18, 2010 4:35am
Hello fti and all here.
I Have been reading a similar thread.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=245149

Both seem to be on the same lines. but the other thread is based on longer term.

Thankyou fti and pipeasy I beleive these methods are the only real way to success. have opened a live account and am slowly attempting this now.

The one major thing that seems to trip me up is the question in my head.
Is this retrace or reversal,stay in get out.?
Typically I think its just retrace stay in an it reverses taking me out. Or I feel its reversed cause it comes right down the intial leg.I get out an it turns an goes back up lol it is so frustrating.
making green pips large and red pips small this is my goal.
  • #19,054
  • Edited 10:53am Sep 18, 2010 9:34am | Edited 10:53am
Quoting paul1
Is this retrace or reversal,stay in get out.?

This new thread looks interesting and should be helpful:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=256484
"Put all your efforts in becoming effortless"
  • #19,055
  • Sep 18, 2010 1:21pm Sep 18, 2010 1:21pm
http://www.economicvoice.com/carswel...#axzz0zuFLtUQ0

It is a surprise for me how little impact has had
this news in the media.

... perhaps why most people have no clear picture
of how the banking world / our economy work?

Regards,

Textor
  • #19,056
  • Sep 18, 2010 1:58pm Sep 18, 2010 1:58pm
Quoting textor
http://www.economicvoice.com/carswel...#axzz0zuFLtUQ0

It is a surprise for me how little impact has had
this news in the media.

... perhaps why most people have no clear picture
of how the banking world / our economy work?

Regards,

Textor
Human nature needs and subconsciously looking for a leader ... in politics, money, etc. ,human not wanting to make decisions and bear the consequences.I think that this is not changed :nerd:

I think this is just a promotional ploy to keep the crisis alive.
  • #19,057
  • Sep 18, 2010 2:20pm Sep 18, 2010 2:20pm
Quoting Gro
Human nature needs and subconsciously looking for a leader ...

The trouble with leaders is...they always need followers.
  • #19,058
  • Sep 18, 2010 2:20pm Sep 18, 2010 2:20pm
Quoting katrooo
Hi,

[...]
then i've got the job on institutional level, in one bank in its dealing room, i'm on metrodesk so i deal most of time for customers and options most of time, but i'm sitting right next to FX dealers and i've seen a lot and they told me a lot...just today i was talking with one of the best dealers there and he told me too that TA is really fallancy, that it works sometimes but sometimes not and a lot of participation the robots and machines have now and it's really unpredictable that movements...he also told me that if somebody...
Hi Mike,

welcome to the TAF Family!
You are very very young and have already a lot of experience with that trading thingy - cool.

Want to comment on the two bold marked passages of your posting.

The first: The Technical Analysis Fallacy.
I guess it is common sense here in the thread, that not TA itself is a fallacy, but what the traders, analysts and TA-Gurus have made out of it. Most of TA is just some kind of maths or statistics. There is nothing wrong with it. TA is just a toolbox of useful tools, if you have an understanding what these tools are doing in detail. But the conclusion that the combination of different tools will give some everlasting and always working Trading Signals is the fallacy. For example I'm still using an EMA, because it reduces the details of the moves on a M1 chart so that the human eye/brain can recognice the major moves more easy ...

The second: ... simplier way of doing it with TA ....
I can assure you: There is nothing simplier out there, than trading the flow (dancing to the music). If you have a got a feeling for the market you do not need to decipher any single chart-pattern. You do not have to ponder about, what this candle is going to tell you. Try to imagine how complicate it would be, if someone had tried to teach you how to ride a bike with some complicated physical formulas about balance, actio and reactio, mass inertia, acceleration and so on. Do you believe you every learnt to ride a bike?
But if you have just tried it again and again you have developed a feeling for all this complicated interrelations. And after you have learnt it, you neither have to do any conscious calculations, nor thinking about what to do, to drive a curve or go through some mud.
Following fti's teachings will lead you most probably to the ability to trade a naked chart, just based on the market flow/dance.
Could it be easier?

Wish you all the best!
And please do not hesitate to ask your inevitable questions during your journey ...

CU,
MaMood.
  • #19,059
  • Sep 18, 2010 2:39pm Sep 18, 2010 2:39pm
Quoting Low
The trouble with leaders is...they always need followers.
... followers are still available, until Sun will have their Planet.

PS "THE MARKETS ARE THE EFFECT, SO WHAT IS THE CAUSE ?"
  • #19,060
  • Sep 18, 2010 2:47pm Sep 18, 2010 2:47pm
Quoting Gro
... until Sun will have their Planet.
Isn't that 5 billion years from now?

I'm pretty sure we'll have all found a way to kill ourselves long before that happens.
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