One hour bb is telling me what I need to know. o/s with price over upper band. horizontal bands tell me price will retreat to opisite band. Just my own observation.
Though I'm in the office I wanted to enter this thought into my Journal. The 4 hr chart shows continuation to the upside though I am in a short scalp trade down to 12960 based on the 1 hour chart.
I have two positions open at this time. With Alpari US I have a long position trade off of 4 hr data to the upside with the hope of at least one more swing higher out of the flag now being printed. The daily and weekly charts are open to this theory.
However to take advantage of intraday trades that may occur I have an open short trade at 130181 with a target of 12960 with FXCM. This is nothing more that a short scalp trade within the bullish flag I mentioned. My stop on the short is 13037 which would break todays high. The 1 hour chart is printing a ledge at the moment for price to jump off of. Testing the support of 12960 prior to any move up would hit my profit target.
If I'm wrong, It won't be the first time. That's why trading is so rewardiing. Only you get the blame and/or the credit for how your trades play out.
BB is one of my favorite TA tools for several reasons but one I like most is the over bought price action when a tweezer top is formed over a horizontial band and the next swing high fails to touch the upper band. My experience trading this set-up is that price 90% or more times always retreats to the mid line of the bb and it is at least 50% chance that price retreats to the opposite band.
The bb must be horizontal and at least one other indicator should be printing a over bought signal as well. This is the set up I noticed this afternoon on the 1 hour eur/usd chart and it still may make it.
trade opened at 129614 and closed at 130690 - +107 pips. I think that 131 will be a strong ceiling to break today and I really do not want to be long in this trade at that price.
As I said I did not think price would remain above 131 at least at the time of my post between 6 and 7 est. I thought that a short trade could be available before NY opened and I saw one at 130972 and closed the trade at 130645 with 32 pip profit. Price currenlty trading below the weekly M5.
I'm still bullish this pair but looking for any short at key res areas mainly because this pair is trading at prominent weekly and Monthly R pivots.
Price about to test M5 from below at 13070. Let's see what happens
On the daily chart the 200 ema and the mental barrier of 13150 are teamed up to cause me to think about exiting my eur/$ long trade sooner than later. The hope is that consolidation is now playing out at around 13132 and this could be a spring board for a push through 13150 area later But it will need to break out of a upward channel as well.
It's only 3:30 est but price is just sitting and I need more volitility in order to remain in this trade.
Price has reached 13147 already. I will close my trade now just to be cautious prior to the weekend.
opened at 130814 closed at 131320 for a gain of 50pips/
Sometimes we have to listen to our gut. It tends to have our best interests in mind in my opinion at least. The price broke out of the upper channel line but it had too much to contend with at the time
200 ema on daily
168 extension
channel resistance line
upper bb
So to exit my long trade was a no brainer. Instead I faded the b/o and went short at 131393. I do not expect much from this short at all. That's not really the point. We have to listen to our instincts and let the experienace we have guide us. No one likes sheep. People eat sheep.
It's the the sheep herder that gets paid.
An evening star sems to be painting on the 240 min chart. I may give my short a chance to be something. I'm going to give it a short leash though because it still has to close below the 6 sma first.
The short trade entered at around 13140 has been closed at 13055 for gain of 85 pips.. Price has hit the 200 EMA on the 15 minute chart and that is as good a place as any to close for the week. Though the 1 hour support trend broke it is also the weekly M5 (13070) Strong resistance area and now being retested again from below. the doji on the 1 hour chart formed around that pivot point area and bearish momo began shrinking and nobody likes shrinking momo.
13048 support stops me from further bearish trades today and buying the Euro above 13150 is too high a price for me.
This trade was opened mid way through the NY session but has hit the wall right now. Trendlines and support indicate to me a snails pace up to midnight at least so I decided to take profit and see how things play out later. I do not expect any surprises coming out of the FOMC and I realize that the lack of momo could be partly because of tomorrows meeting.
Price is right at the 200 ma on the daily and though I think the price will go through because of the flat direction it is forming I do not think that my position will survive a pull back so I will take profit now and hope for a little pull back to the 200 later at some poiint.
My initial target is for price to test the 200 EMA as support that was broken at 13158 on Tuesday or the return of price pulling back enough to meet the 3 ma once again. I think a push higher is iminent but a bounce off the daily 200 would be a good sign.
Trade entered based on lower time frame reversal. entered at 133013 stop at 133378.
I meant to say pull back to the 200 ema not the 50. It is 4:22 am. Goin back to sleep.
Greed is a bad thing. Price pulled back to the 1 hour bb mid line and I could have taken my 20-25 pips but noooo. Baaaam took off like it stole something. Price was Goooone.
The 200 on the weekly is were i'll be hangin for a little while. Eur too expensive for me right now.
Entered at 133917 closed at 133066 - 85 pip gain. I was originally on the wrong side of the price action with a short on my 1st trade and lost 78 pips. I then found an oppurtunity for a 2nd short trade with a little more promise and placed just a little more risk in the hopes of gaining back some of the loss I had just taken. It took a while to develop but the M4 monthly pivot at 13376 really gave good resistance in the end.
Entered at 112.67 and closed at 113.107 - 51 pip gain.
I'm looking at longer time frame charts. 4 hr + and with my 3 ma I'm looking for price that has ran away from it. MA is a lagging indicator and price is a leading one so I must have a valid confirmation of a reversal to take the trade that in most cases will be against the provailing trend. Seeing this though gives me a pause because price is running away from a very short term indicator and we can either wait to join the trend or counter trade it. If I get a valid signal I will counter trade the move.
This move is on a weekly chart so I'd like to see a reversal on the 4hr and/or daily.
