Technical Analysis Fallacy

A very early Good Morning from Europe.

Now I have the same problem as Gro: I could not sleep anylonger.

But how had Gordon Gecko said in Wall Street: "This is your wakeup call. Money never sleeps"

So let's see what the Asian session will bring ...

CU,
MaMood

JUst for info:

Bernanke Shadow of Easing Limits BOJ Success With Yen Weakness

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...-weakness.html

BoJ again?
Jumped in heavily

Let'S see ....

No - seems not to be BoJ.
But stay nimble

well jsut take care seems the long side is very strong today...


Thanks and downloaded
V

Just for info:

17 Sep 10: 03:09 GMT (SGA) - FX NOW! AUD/JPY, AUD/USD Flows - PM Kan to call for extra budget; Cabinet Reshuffle
- Kyodo More extra budget from PM Kan, to show decisive leadership to tackle JPY rise, slowing economy, after the emphatic win over DPJ strongman Ichiro Ozawa. PM Naoto Kan to tell new Cabinet to compile extra budget for current FY10/11.
- Kyodo. Just for info: Kyodo as well: The ruling DPJ is set to give the formal nod Friday to the party's new leadership lineup led by PM Naoto Kan, who is expected to reshuffle his Cabinet later in the day. Kan will submit his new roster for the party leadership, which includes Foreign Min Katsuya Okada in No. 2 post of SecGen, for official approval at a meeting of all DPJ parliamentarians. On FX, Cross/JPY edging up, seen helped by news of extra budget, and BoJ bid talks. AUD/USD broke 0.9400 to 0.9409 on large US inv banks buying, AUD/JPY up at 80.65, EUR above 1.3105.WL

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)

And one more:

0314 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY falls to 85.59 intraday low as Japan exporters accelerate USD sales before end of quarter as they consider current levels attractive, say senior dealers at major Japan banks. Pair may fall to 85.50, says Akira Hoshino, senior dealer at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ; adds, markets watching how much more USD exporters sell. Dealers say Japan authorities' potential moves to weaken JPY still biggest focus. Shuichi Kanehira, senior dealer at Mizuho Corporate Bank, says market mood significantly different from mood on ordinary trading days. "Economic indicators and such are non-issues right now," Hoshino says. USD/JPY last 85.76. EUR/JPY falls to 111.92 intra-day low, last at 112.37, as exporters buy JPY. ([i][email protected][/i])

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)

My last info may give you some reason for the current moves in JPY pairs.
It also could give some good opportunities with the knowledge of BoJ in the background ...

So stay nimble and just take, what the market is offering you!

edit:
Have you ever thought, how all the other market participants (like the "exporter") are timing their selling orders? Finally it is a game of seeing the Jpy decreasing and waiting and waiting and waiting for a better opportunity to buy JPY.
But not too long, because several others want to do the same.
So guess what could be good "indications" to jump in with the first ....

Careful again!
Battlestations ...

anyone dancing?

Dancing USDJPY mostly from the long side.
But there have been also 2 nice opprtunities from the short side, thx to the japanes exporters ;-)

Yer, I'm watching yen, although I'm realising I'm very far from being able to feel the flow as I pointed out previously... still have a lot to learn! I'm presently probably going against everything that fti has taught... I was long yen long before boj announcement... very lucky I think I am.

Hi all,

just watching on the sides still long with euro cross.

regards,

The most important thing: You know your deviations from fti'S teachings.
That is nearly half of the learning curve.
Slow learning step by step will lead you to success.
So be not too disappointed ...

I think the biggest problem I have lies in my arrogance... i keep thinking i can predict the markets. This is due to my retail based level of knowledge i.e. since I don't have access to big boys information such as phone calls from clients buying this or that, I don't really have a good picture about exactly how much a certain amount of volume can affect prices. I compensate this by just making a decision and sticking with it... and these decisions are very simple... if price is going up, I sell, if it's going down, I buy i.e. I'm contrarian but by the same token, I've got a very rigid mindset in terms of how much prices can move despite the thing that I said regarding my lack of feel for how much prices can move/should move depending on what the price action is doing/what is going on in the world. I trade pretty much naked, but I've got a rather decorated mindset which means I'm not trading naked after all. I'm starting to see the simple truths of trading, but by the same token, I keep complicating matters beyond reality and confuse myself in the process.

As they say... the human mind can not deal well with large numbers and when you hear figures such as forex trades 4 tril a day, well, it boggles my mind as I can't imagine that sort of money let alone how the flow of it some days does very little, other days does a lot.

So yer... basically I compensate my lack of knowledge about current buyers/sellers by trying to act preemptively and the result is incorrect entries. Should I focus less on capturing the whole move (because at the moment, I try to capture as much of the entire move as possible)?

Hi Tex,

just downloaded it, tnx


Rgrds
S

Hi again,

back from lunch.

Hmmh - there are some topics that come spontanously to my mind
(may not in sync with fti's opinion. But he can comment your approach by himself):

1. from my point of Trading contrarian or on dealer mode is not per se against the principles of fti'S mode of trading. You can still stick to the flow and respec all his elaborations about Risk and MM. But you will need really deep pockets not to get wiped out, when the move will go much further as you may have expected.

2. Not feeling the flow/music is not a problem. It will most probably come to you with more experience. You need several thousand hours of screentime to really get there. And there is no shortcut (as far as I know ;-))

3. Being preemptive is strictly against the rules. May be it is the reason why you can't develop a feeling for the flow. Trying to guess what the market will do, keeps your mind trapped by rigidity.

So finally trading contrarian could be the reason for all your problems, becuse I understand that you are always tempted to forecast the markets next move, when you have to spread your money over the possible move size ...

Hmh - not sure if I was able to make my points clear.
I would much appreciate, when fti or some other senior would comment on you too.

But thx for speeking frankly about your MO.

CU,
MaMood

Be careful now!

Major figs ahead in 12 minutes.
And if I remember right it is triple witching day today ...

for friends

If gold price continues up like that I might even profit from selling the jewelers gold which I bought some years ago, although being ripped off for craftsmanship

Hey textor, this mises site is very educational, I have downloaded and read some of their stuff related to economic cycles some time ago. It was enlightening, but I could'n relate it to trading. Have you been able to relate anything of their materials to trading?

Hope everyone is trading well. I was lucky to short eur/usd from 1.3153 for 50pips as a hedge to my 3 days pyramid of longs. I was even more luckier to get my buy limit filled at 1.3050 after crying 1 day, since it didn't get filled yesterday for 1 pip.

Soon it's gonna be end of the work day and I'm gonna get out of the office to enjoy the weekend

Regards, MyTbo

Hi guys,

in case any of you is wondering what's the hot deal for today that's causing the risk OFF situation: Traders say Ireland CDS now at all time wides 415/435bps. Rumor on the street is they will turn to the IMF for help.
Also: GREEK-GERMAN 10-YR BOND YIELD SPREAD WIDENS 4 BPS TO 911 BPS. You can always count on those two to throw the shit at the fan

Rgrds
S