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Amyc Trade Journal

  • #821
  • Sep 5, 2010 6:35pm Sep 5, 2010 6:35pm
EU should be up into 1.2942 this week. At this level i will be exiting all my longs and just waiting to see how price reacts. Part profits were taken at 1.2880 on Friday.

For September I am still looking for price to hit 1.2490, but there is an incomplete pattern to the upside which could see it back up into 1.3359 first. I'll just wait and let price show me which way it wants to go.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.GIF Size: 19 KB
  • #822
  • Sep 6, 2010 5:46pm Sep 6, 2010 5:46pm
EU is a long for me between 1.2863-70, I have added with stops at 1.2830. First target 1.2942.
  • #823
  • Sep 6, 2010 6:35pm Sep 6, 2010 6:35pm
Quoting amyc
EU is a long for me between 1.2863-70, I have added with stops at 1.2830. First target 1.2942.
Long again at 1.2830. If it goes below 1.2794 then I will start trading shorts with a target of 1.2490.
  • #824
  • Edited 10:52pm Sep 6, 2010 8:06pm | Edited 10:52pm
Long again on eu at 1.2794, I don't see anything particularly bearish about this down move yet. For me all timeframes except the very small show a move back to 1.2940. Before that though there could be a lower low made at 1.2774. Still holding the previous longs at 1.2830 also.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.GIF Size: 12 KB
  • #825
  • Sep 6, 2010 8:10pm Sep 6, 2010 8:10pm
For au 9133 should cap any downside move there, if below that then I will probably exit my longs but I am still bullish on au until next week.
  • #826
  • Sep 7, 2010 1:02am Sep 7, 2010 1:02am
Since 9133 didn't hold I closed all my au longs and placed new buy orders at 9086. I still think this pair goes up this week and closes on Friday on its highs somewhere probably close to 9300. But 9133 should have been solid support if that move was going to start today.
  • #827
  • Sep 13, 2010 6:40am Sep 13, 2010 6:40am
hi i think the trend may go down.because the makete is unpreditable
  • #828
  • Sep 13, 2010 5:44pm Sep 13, 2010 5:44pm
I agree with you. For au next week should go to the weekly lows. I have exited all my long positions and am looking to start taking shorts. If the next 4hr bar can close below 9354 then I think we may have a top in place. Initial target is next weeks lows which I will post next Monday, if it continues down from there then 8741 by the end of September.
  • #829
  • Sep 14, 2010 2:17pm Sep 14, 2010 2:17pm
Hi Amy. 9456 on A/U. Wow! Are your charts screaming to sell at this price?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #830
  • Sep 14, 2010 5:41pm Sep 14, 2010 5:41pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Hi Amy. 9456 on A/U. Wow! Are your charts screaming to sell at this price?
Next week yes, but for now I'd be cautious.
  • #831
  • Sep 14, 2010 9:01pm Sep 14, 2010 9:01pm
Maybe we have seen a top on the S&P, 1125 was my target, on Tuesday it hit 1125 then came back and closed under the daily pivot, that is bearish to me, but if it can't go down from here then 1140 is the next up target. I would still like to see 970 this year.

AU doesn't look like it has topped yet to me, I think this pair will see 95 this week before heading down next week. I have a target of 8741 by the end of September but that is a long way away at the moment.
I am going to sit back until things are a little clearer.
  • #832
  • Sep 16, 2010 8:25pm Sep 16, 2010 8:25pm
AU looks to be very near a turning point. For my charts so far this week looks exactly the same as the first week of february when au hit its first bottom for the year. (obviously in reverse since this is a top) If that is going to continue then au should move up on friday and hit 9453 and then move down into the close and continue down next week.

For the S&P the December contract has hit the resistance at 1125, this is not suprising since we have contract expiry today and when we get resistance near expiry usually both contracts will touch resistance. I'm looking for a move down in equities to coincide with a move down in au.
  • #833
  • Sep 16, 2010 9:00pm Sep 16, 2010 9:00pm
I was surprised that the gap from open Sunday was not closed yet. What are your thoughts about this please Amy? Thanks....
  • #834
  • Edited Sep 17, 2010 12:36am Sep 16, 2010 9:03pm | Edited Sep 17, 2010 12:36am
Quoting go4pips
I was surprised that the gap from open Sunday was not closed yet. What are your thoughts about this please Amy? Thanks....
It should close next week. Price could make it as far as 9490 on friday but if it touches 9453 and then has a daily close below then this is a high probability short for next week.
  • #835
  • Sep 16, 2010 9:04pm Sep 16, 2010 9:04pm
Amy, do you see euro headed down next week to 2900?
  • #836
  • Sep 16, 2010 9:10pm Sep 16, 2010 9:10pm
Quoting go4pips
Amy, do you see euro headed down next week to 2900?
I am unsure on the euro at the moment, the daily chart looks like it should continue up but the 4hr has had a bearish close for Thursday which should see it move down.

I think that dx is about to put in a significant bottom at around 81.2 (Dec futures price not spot). If this happens then the euro will be heading down next week with other usd pairs and equities. Futures are trading with around a 0.25 premium to spot currently.

I will be paying attention at around 1.3130 for shorting possibilities.
  • #837
  • Sep 17, 2010 12:26am Sep 17, 2010 12:26am
I think this is a good area to try eu shorts 1.3140-43, sl 1.3185, target 1.2490.
  • #838
  • Sep 17, 2010 12:36am Sep 17, 2010 12:36am
au has made it to 9450 as expected but I would still be cautious with the shorts, 9490 looks to be on the cards, if it goes to 9490 then there needs to be a friday close below 9453 or shorts will not work next week.
  • #839
  • Sep 19, 2010 9:13am Sep 19, 2010 9:13am
Amy, would you please discuss your stops and how they are determined? I started rereading your journal and still am not certain? I'm thinking it probably is behind a fib level. Also, when is a decision made to move the stop to be or be+ profit? Thanks Amy for your time.
  • #840
  • Sep 19, 2010 5:28pm Sep 19, 2010 5:28pm
Quoting go4pips
Amy, would you please discuss your stops and how they are determined? I started rereading your journal and still am not certain? I'm thinking it probably is behind a fib level. Also, when is a decision made to move the stop to be or be+ profit? Thanks Amy for your time.
There is no method to determine the stops, I just put them where I see fit, sometimes tht is 5 pips sometimes it is 50 pips. But I do try to get at least 5:1 rr out of every trade, so if the stop is going to be 50 pips then I want to make sure there is at least 250 pips of potential profit available.
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