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No more BS - What have you learned?

  • #401
  • Sep 16, 2010 12:28pm Sep 16, 2010 12:28pm
Quoting JohnnyBSmart

If he was trading naked and "feeling the market" waiting for the market to tell him direction I'm sure he felt that truck up his rear end. He now has the direction firmly planted in his head.
Some people work on the premise that it's all in the charts therefore they don't need to know anything more.

I don't disagree with what you're saying but I think you're taking 'trading naked' a bit too far. Whilst there might not be any benefit to some indicators, and therefore trade off an inicator-free chart (naked), it doesn't mean ignoring obvious no-brainer trades like BOJ's line-in-the-sand. There's 'naked', then there's just plain stoopid!

All your 'trader' needed to do was read the news to know buying yen wasn't the best trade decision he could make!
  • #402
  • Sep 16, 2010 12:40pm Sep 16, 2010 12:40pm
Quoting Razzle
OK, lets look at the typical trend follower. 40% win rate, 2:1 reward to risk.

6/10 times he predicts, he's predicting incorrectly !. Why would you think you where predicting if you got it wrong more than you got it right ?

Your not predicting, your playing probabilities, and there's a massive difference.
How is it different? You say your playing probabilities, but your still predicting that the probabilities will play in your favor. In this case, you are predicting that your wins will be bigger than your losses.
  • #403
  • Sep 16, 2010 12:49pm Sep 16, 2010 12:49pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
lol C - this made me laugh wow and on topic too +10 points!
w00t!!
  • #404
  • Sep 16, 2010 12:57pm Sep 16, 2010 12:57pm
Quoting Aldente
How is it different? You say your playing probabilities, but your still predicting that the probabilities will play in your favor. In this case, you are predicting that your wins will be bigger than your losses.
Yes, but there is a distinction between predicting what the market is going to do, and how your system will perform. Predicting that the probabilities are in your favor, has nothing to do with predicting the market.
Stubbornly persistent
  • #405
  • Sep 16, 2010 1:14pm Sep 16, 2010 1:14pm
You know when you have a party and theres that lively stage that comes just before the end stage where most of the party goers have left the building but theres the drunk ass dudes that stay and sit at the bar all night dribbling shit...

Um ... I think thats where we're at here people

I guess it was inevitable this thread has officially reached the "lets run around in circles and butt heads" stage

Its cool - just remember to wear helmets this shits gonna get messy...
Time hides Nothing
  • #406
  • Sep 16, 2010 1:15pm Sep 16, 2010 1:15pm
Quoting sergiu
Predicting that the probabilities are in your favor, has nothing to do with predicting the market.
Exactly.
  • #407
  • Sep 16, 2010 1:20pm Sep 16, 2010 1:20pm
Quoting sergiu
Yes, but there is a distinction between predicting what the market is going to do, and how your system will perform. Predicting that the probabilities are in your favor, has nothing to do with predicting the market.

I didn't specify the nature of the prediction, all I am saying is that prediction is an inherent part of trading. I would also say that predicting how your system will perform has a lot to do with predicting the market, one depends upon the other, unless your saying that your entries and exits are completely random?
  • #408
  • Sep 16, 2010 1:52pm Sep 16, 2010 1:52pm
Quoting CindyXXXX

I guess it was inevitable this thread has officially reached the "lets run around in circles and butt heads" stage
Did you predict it?
  • #409
  • Sep 16, 2010 2:17pm Sep 16, 2010 2:17pm
Quoting Aldente
You would think that would be painfully obvious to anyone capable of rational thought.

Why are traders so afraid of the word 'predict' anyway?

I hear this alot "I don't predict, I react", well what the hell does that mean anyway?...
Exactly right, IMHO. Every trading decision somehow involves a belief/expectation that one outcome is more likely than another (otherwise there would be no point in having any kind of rationale). Contemplating, and deciding between, possible future outcomes equates to 'prediction' (at least, given my understanding of what the word means).
  • #410
  • Sep 16, 2010 2:20pm Sep 16, 2010 2:20pm
Quoting pipmutt
Did you predict it?
Nah I was just feeling it I guess

Where are we going?

Why are we here?

What is the meaning of it all?

How do YOU define a candle?

What came first the pixle of the flame?

Whos hungry?

And WHy?

Time hides Nothing
  • #411
  • Sep 16, 2010 2:25pm Sep 16, 2010 2:25pm
Quoting CindyXXXX

What is the meaning of it all?





42
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #412
  • Sep 16, 2010 2:25pm Sep 16, 2010 2:25pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Nah I was just feeling it I guess

Where are we going?

Why are we here?

What is the meaning of it all?

If by "here", you're referring to these 'academic' threads, then I'd say: Amusement. Camaraderie. A way of passing time while waiting for next setup to wander by.

[EDIT] or (to quote Blackadder) "civilised man seeks out good and intelligent company, so that through learned discourse he may rise above the savage and closer to God"
  • #413
  • Sep 16, 2010 2:32pm Sep 16, 2010 2:32pm
Quoting hanover
If by "here", you're referring to these 'academic' threads, then I'd say: Amusement. Camaraderie. A way of passing time while waiting for next setup to wander by.

Hmmmm the next setup
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #414
  • Sep 16, 2010 2:33pm Sep 16, 2010 2:33pm
Quoting Turveyd
Hmmmm the next setup
and here we go again
Time hides Nothing
  • #415
  • Sep 16, 2010 2:37pm Sep 16, 2010 2:37pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
and here we go again

I'm behaving stop hating the player!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #416
  • Sep 16, 2010 2:42pm Sep 16, 2010 2:42pm
I'll add a thread relevant thought...

With all the talk about trading naked and no indicator this and that bla bla bla talk.

In the end all that matters is a green # in the P/L column.

It all comes down to the trader as people like Pipmutt have said numerous times.

Take Ed Seykota for example... a fantastic trader with a fantastic record. And the man loves his MAs and technical indicators.

Again it's the trader not the method.

We all think differently and all absolutes such as only "naked" charts etc are always false.

Absolutes always fail.
  • #417
  • Sep 16, 2010 2:47pm Sep 16, 2010 2:47pm
Quoting Deusomega
I'll add a thread relevant thought...

With all the talk about trading naked and no indicator this and that bla bla bla talk.

In the end all that matters is a green # in the P/L column.
Thank you
Time hides Nothing
  • #418
  • Sep 16, 2010 2:55pm Sep 16, 2010 2:55pm
Quoting Deusomega

It all comes down to the trader as people like Pipmutt have said numerous times.
Totally agree there I've got a great system and with a what I consider lesser methods a few traders are making a killing ( Gits ) , I need great system to make up for my averageness when it comes to live trade decisions.

I should of stuck to multiple day swing trades via stock I kick ass there, but I like the challenge, trading is more about the challenge and the science than the money.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #419
  • Sep 16, 2010 2:57pm Sep 16, 2010 2:57pm
Quoting Deusomega

We all think differently and all absolutes such as only "naked" charts etc are always false.

Absolutes always fail.

Great post
  • #420
  • Sep 16, 2010 2:59pm Sep 16, 2010 2:59pm
Quoting Turveyd
I kick ass .
We know...
Time hides Nothing
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