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  • #441
  • Sep 14, 2010 5:12am Sep 14, 2010 5:12am
Thanks for those great patterns ChinaWombat.

Not sure if any of you trade gold, but you probably keep an eye on it at least.

I am watching this little gartley as possible entry on right shoulder of head and shoulders after trendline break. AB=CD is slightly above, so there is still the chance we may trade slightly above todays high. RR on this one is good as we are looking for considerable downside.

All the best

[IMG]file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/DOMINI%7E1/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot-2.png[/IMG]http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/2621/goldj.jpg

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Everyone is entitled to my opinion.
  • #442
  • Sep 15, 2010 1:54am Sep 15, 2010 1:54am
pink ab=cd
blue 1.27bc
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp4h bear gartley.gif Size: 25 KB
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #443
  • Sep 15, 2010 2:41am Sep 15, 2010 2:41am
it may be measuring from the wrong A point but the R/R is too good to pass up from here. Even a .382 retrace is attractive. A break of previous lows @ .9910 would rule this invalid.

if it should measure from the previous high then ab=cd is at .9680 which we can re-establish, and previous weekly lows near this point as well to support a long case.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf daily abcd.gif Size: 30 KB
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #444
  • Sep 15, 2010 11:20am Sep 15, 2010 11:20am
is 1.5655 the sell point or 1.5685? Both points have dual convergence 1.5655 is the 50% of the retrace of the decline from early august
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd butterfy.gif Size: 32 KB
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #445
  • Sep 15, 2010 8:22pm Sep 15, 2010 8:22pm
Quoting ChinaWombat
pink ab=cd
blue 1.27bc

Hey ChinaWombat, glad we are on the same page, I posted that EG a few posts back lol. I have a couple of short patterns on the EG, and we are possibly operating within the weekly bullish butterfly, so I have a long bias for now.

http://i625.photobucket.com/albums/t...eilly/eg-4.jpg

So I am looking at this m30 bullish bat, but trendline support does not come in until significantly lower, so i'm not sure if it's any good. Just an area of interest, I keep an eye on the lower timeframes.

http://i625.photobucket.com/albums/t...eilly/eg-3.jpg


Here area a couple of longer t/f patterns i'm monitoring, the second of which would support your short swiss bias ChinaWombat (thanks for that uchf abcd btw - i've been searcing for a reason to long that one haha). All quite a long way from D, may serve as profit target more than anything.

AJ daily

http://i625.photobucket.com/albums/t...eilly/aj-1.jpg


ECH4

http://i625.photobucket.com/albums/t...oreilly/ec.jpg
Everyone is entitled to my opinion.
  • #446
  • Sep 15, 2010 8:51pm Sep 15, 2010 8:51pm
This nu h1 butterfly has reasonable proportions, but not much in the way of supporting trendlines/pivots etc. Also some bearish news flow this morning, not that there is ever much correlation between news and price lol.

Probabaly not the best pattern, just passing it on for you guys to decide.

http://i625.photobucket.com/albums/t...eilly/nu-3.jpg
Everyone is entitled to my opinion.
  • #447
  • Sep 15, 2010 10:16pm Sep 15, 2010 10:16pm
having a loook at this little m30 ec gartley, trying to get into percieved uptrend for run to pattern D's above. good RR

http://i625.photobucket.com/albums/t...eilly/ec-1.jpg
Everyone is entitled to my opinion.
  • #448
  • Sep 15, 2010 11:17pm Sep 15, 2010 11:17pm
Quoting mofo
having a loook at this little m30 ec gartley, trying to get into percieved uptrend for run to pattern D's above. good RR

http://i625.photobucket.com/albums/t...eilly/ec-1.jpg

Well this has tested D once, and uchf looks like it might break to the downside, so i have moved stop to b/e.

http://i625.photobucket.com/albums/t...eilly/ec-2.jpg
Everyone is entitled to my opinion.
  • #449
  • Sep 16, 2010 2:55am Sep 16, 2010 2:55am
nice clump of converging fibs at .786 as well as the bigger ABCD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad bat.gif Size: 29 KB
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #450
  • Sep 16, 2010 10:14am Sep 16, 2010 10:14am
Quoting mofo
Well this has tested D once, and uchf looks like it might break to the downside, so i have moved stop to b/e.
hope you were able to hold on for the chf weakness!
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #451
  • Sep 16, 2010 7:18pm Sep 16, 2010 7:18pm
time to square up eurcad and look for short opportunities...

as patterns go, this 3 drives is 5 from 5 since I started watching it a few months ago... if only I had the patience to just sit & watch & wait for it...it alone has generated a compounded 40% return over that time...

that said I guess I should start preparing for some failures soon with it..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad abcd.gif Size: 45 KB
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #452
  • Sep 16, 2010 7:34pm Sep 16, 2010 7:34pm
Quoting ChinaWombat
hope you were able to hold on for the chf weakness!

Unfortunately I stopped out at b/e before the move. My trading plan premits moving to b/e once price has reached .236AD.

Hurts to miss a 7R trade like that, but that's trading. At least i'm finding some good areas, and I've still had a good week.
Everyone is entitled to my opinion.
  • #453
  • Sep 16, 2010 7:49pm Sep 16, 2010 7:49pm
at resistance now but no BC convergance, but nice abcd's
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf butterfly.gif Size: 26 KB
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #454
  • Sep 16, 2010 8:42pm Sep 16, 2010 8:42pm
I have been waiting patiently for a good long ucad pattern, and although it is very early days this might have some potential.

I am making a play for D on the M30 barish engulfing. 6R opportunity...worth a shot. Hoping to ride through the sell stops of those who thought we had already seen the bottom, and IF it works will trun the boat around about 1.0190.


ChinaWombat, D on this pattern coincides with D from your bullish bat.

http://i625.photobucket.com/albums/t...lly/ucad-4.jpg
Everyone is entitled to my opinion.
  • #455
  • Sep 16, 2010 10:06pm Sep 16, 2010 10:06pm
I was looking at the 30M earlier and wish you well with it but for me the bigger 4H BAT is what I'm waiting for with ABCD and ideal 2.0BC arriving at .886 plus rising daily support gives me a high probability play....maybe next week
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad bat.gif Size: 32 KB
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #456
  • Sep 16, 2010 10:26pm Sep 16, 2010 10:26pm
Quoting ChinaWombat
I was looking at the 30M earlier and wish you well with it but for me the bigger 4H BAT is what I'm waiting for with ABCD and ideal 2.0BC arriving at .886 plus rising daily support gives me a high probability play....maybe next week

Well, I think we are basically in agreement ChinaWombat, give or take 20 pips. I would not be surprised at all to see price fall to the 1.0170 area of your bat. Perhaps my m30 butterfly is just further evidence that something might be going on in that zone.

One slight reservation I have with the bat is that the B retracement is quite a long way through the 50%, but I'm not sure if that is a big deal. HOwever I agree that with C retracing 50% of AB the 2.0BC extension of is niiice!
Everyone is entitled to my opinion.
  • #457
  • Sep 16, 2010 10:43pm Sep 16, 2010 10:43pm
Quoting mofo
I have been waiting patiently for a good long ucad pattern, and although it is very early days this might have some potential.

I am making a play for D on the M30 barish engulfing. 6R opportunity...worth a shot. Hoping to ride through the sell stops of those who thought we had already seen the bottom, and IF it works will trun the boat around about 1.0190.


ChinaWombat, D on this pattern coincides with D from your bullish bat.

http://i625.photobucket.com/albums/t...lly/ucad-4.jpg

+18 on this, i moved to b/e as I feel there is a chance we are putting in a right shoulder and never make it to our D's ChinaWombat
Everyone is entitled to my opinion.
  • #458
  • Sep 16, 2010 10:55pm Sep 16, 2010 10:55pm
Quoting mofo
Well, I think we are basically in agreement ChinaWombat, give or take 20 pips. I would not be surprised at all to see price fall to the 1.0170 area of your bat. Perhaps my m30 butterfly is just further evidence that something might be going on in that zone.

One slight reservation I have with the bat is that the B retracement is quite a long way through the 50%, but I'm not sure if that is a big deal. HOwever I agree that with C retracing 50% of AB the 2.0BC extension of is niiice!
Yes, sorry, sometimes it's hard to read your charts due to the colour combo, I thought you were talking about the 30M gartley, but now that I look closer, we're on the same page.

On the BC my experience is that unless it touches .618, then need to look for .886, plus abcd doesn't work at .786 even though you do have 1.618bc there.

I have noticed that sometimes .382 tests only yield .618 (with valid abcd and bc extensions) before bouncing but that's too much risk for the reward to under take but that's for another post.
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
  • #459
  • Sep 16, 2010 11:15pm Sep 16, 2010 11:15pm
Quoting ChinaWombat
Yes, sorry, sometimes it's hard to read your charts due to the colour combo, I thought you were talking about the 30M gartley, but now that I look closer, we're on the same page.

On the BC my experience is that unless it touches .618, then need to look for .886, plus abcd doesn't work at .786 even though you do have 1.618bc there.

I have noticed that sometimes .382 tests only yield .618 (with valid abcd and bc extensions) before bouncing but that's too much risk for the reward to under take but that's for another post.
Oh good, thanks for passing on your experience ChinaWombat. I noticed the little m30 gartley also, which is another reason i moved to b/e. Let's hope it fails.
Everyone is entitled to my opinion.
  • #460
  • Sep 16, 2010 11:44pm Sep 16, 2010 11:44pm
I have been playing with this to see if a BAT can be established but BC comes in at 3.618 which is outside our BAT conditions precedent. There is a 1.618abcd which may be good enough?.

There is a natural ABCD formation winding up at near the .886, plus daily trend line declining to the same area. So it might not be a BAT, just an ABCD trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad abcd bat.gif Size: 36 KB
Catching a falling knife, no, I'm just trading the Gartley!
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