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Silent Service Method

  • #10,721
  • Sep 15, 2010 2:44pm Sep 15, 2010 2:44pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
It's funny, it barely makes a dent on the weekly chart. Good to even know the level they are protecting too!
I'm not sure I follow what you're saying here. Given the magnitude of the move (250pips today alone) I'd say it will make a pretty big dent in the weekly chart:

Mon/Tues/Wed highlighted here (USD/JPY):
Attached Image


But I suppose the week is only half over...
  • #10,722
  • Sep 15, 2010 3:06pm Sep 15, 2010 3:06pm
Traders don't like being pushed around by central banks, but in this case the BOJ has plenty more ammo. Will be interesting to see if there's a pullback to around 84.30, or half of today's move up.

Still some analysts saying we will reach 80 by year's end.

Also, I've attached a chart that shows that today's move hasn't broken a daily trendline drawn from May...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Yen Daily trend.jpg Size: 96 KB
Disregard all prognostications.
  • #10,723
  • Sep 15, 2010 3:30pm Sep 15, 2010 3:30pm
In other news it's 6-0 here at Emirates Stadium with the Arsenal giving FC Braga an absolute bath in the Champions League qualifiers.

Those home loans Chris are alarming however a lot of people are talking about a housing double dip being a strong catalyst for the next leg lower.

Will be interesting to see if it plays out that way.

Interesting the nature of the intervention on the JPY. I also noticed the hold that the falling trend line had on the price today however there are very real expectations that we may see 2-3 days of solid hitting from the Japanese in the Tokyo session. They threatened another hit in the NY session if the speculators decided to play funny buggers while they were asleep (obviously someone had to stay up all night poor guy).

I am inclined to think we will try the flash crash low before we head lower (circa 88).

Just my opinion.
  • #10,724
  • Sep 15, 2010 4:44pm Sep 15, 2010 4:44pm
Quoting 4xAddict
In other news it's 6-0 here at Emirates Stadium with the Arsenal giving FC Braga an absolute bath in the Champions League qualifiers.

Those home loans Chris are alarming however a lot of people are talking about a housing double dip being a strong catalyst for the next leg lower.

Will be interesting to see if it plays out that way.

Interesting the nature of the intervention on the JPY. I also noticed the hold that the falling trend line had on the price today however there are very real expectations that we may see 2-3 days of solid hitting from...
The only important part of that post was the Arse winning.

lol


My son is wearing an old Henry kit at the moment, from the O2 sponsorship days. Odd really, he acts more like a Millwall fan. I suppose I could take my son to meet him when NY comes next. MLS players are much easier to gain access to than EPL, even the old fossils like Henry.

On our end, Columbus beat Joe Public of Trinidad last night here in Group B play of the CONCACAF Champions League. Not quite the same thing, but if they win it, they get to go to the World Club Champs in Tokyo and get worked by teams like Barca.

Joe Public is a cool name. Too bad they got beat 3-0.
  • #10,725
  • Sep 15, 2010 6:27pm Sep 15, 2010 6:27pm
Quoting Pidgeon
Traders don't like being pushed around by central banks, but in this case the BOJ has plenty more ammo. Will be interesting to see if there's a pullback to around 84.30, or half of today's move up.

Still some analysts saying we will reach 80 by year's end.

Also, I've attached a chart that shows that today's move hasn't broken a daily trendline drawn from May...

I would LOVE to see a break above that trend line, and a pullback showing support. But then again, only time will tell.
  • #10,726
  • Sep 15, 2010 9:13pm Sep 15, 2010 9:13pm
Euro/Swissy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf.png Size: 51 KB
  • #10,727
  • Sep 15, 2010 10:52pm Sep 15, 2010 10:52pm
Quoting Pidgeon
... Also, I've attached a chart that shows that today's move hasn't broken a daily trendline drawn from May...
Actually, the last big bar shouldn't be part of the trendline drawn, right? Because it's the "present" candle.
  • #10,728
  • Sep 16, 2010 5:51am Sep 16, 2010 5:51am
Went ahead and bought, based upon sudden EUR strength around the markets as well....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ecbuy.png Size: 52 KB
  • #10,729
  • Sep 16, 2010 7:24am Sep 16, 2010 7:24am
Quoting clockwork71
Went ahead and bought, based upon sudden EUR strength around the markets as well....
Sweet mother of mayhem. Talk about timing. Jeez!
  • #10,730
  • Sep 16, 2010 8:31am Sep 16, 2010 8:31am
Quoting calderone
Sweet mother of mayhem. Talk about timing. Jeez!

Funny, last time I sold the CHF with any conviction - the SNB stepped in and intervened.
  • #10,731
  • Sep 16, 2010 8:32am Sep 16, 2010 8:32am
Clock -- you have a contact at the Swiss National Bank or you just got an early copy of their interest rate decision?! Well played!

  • #10,732
  • Sep 16, 2010 8:43am Sep 16, 2010 8:43am
Quoting InfinitySL
Clock -- you have a contact at the Swiss National Bank or you just got an early copy of their interest rate decision?! Well played!

Wonder if he is doing some painting for them.
  • #10,733
  • Sep 16, 2010 9:39am Sep 16, 2010 9:39am
I will be more excited when I see it hit 1.40
  • #10,734
  • Sep 16, 2010 2:11pm Sep 16, 2010 2:11pm
Quoting InfinitySL
I'm not sure I follow what you're saying here. Given the magnitude of the move (250pips today alone) I'd say it will make a pretty big dent in the weekly chart:

Mon/Tues/Wed highlighted here (USD/JPY):
Attachment

But I suppose the week is only half over...
Depends how far you zoom in
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #10,735
  • Sep 16, 2010 10:46pm Sep 16, 2010 10:46pm
The volumes are still weak on the stock indexes, this can't be a great sign. I wonder if the "small guy" will ever come back?

Funds are still having more outflow than inflow....
  • #10,736
  • Sep 16, 2010 10:47pm Sep 16, 2010 10:47pm
BTW -

I am thinking that the EUR/CHF trade might be moved to b/e when it reaches 1.35.....

This has the potential for a return of almost 10 handles......at that rate, you would think I was stefx or samer. lol
  • #10,737
  • Sep 16, 2010 10:54pm Sep 16, 2010 10:54pm
Was doing some charting for an article, going through my AVAFX trader, I saw this CFD chart. I know a few of you have switched to them. I like this set up if you can trade it....classic "what was the ceiling is now the floor"

Gasoline.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gasoline.png Size: 56 KB
  • #10,738
  • Sep 17, 2010 10:52am Sep 17, 2010 10:52am
Quoting clockwork71
The volumes are still weak on the stock indexes, this can't be a great sign. I wonder if the "small guy" will ever come back?

Funds are still having more outflow than inflow....
Well, I'm a "small guy" as far as investment funds go, and I've been out of the stock market for a while now. Most of my funds are managed by Mr. Bill Gross' company. And they are doing just fine, and with lower fees, than the up and down roller coaster funds that I had previously. Not that bonds are wonderful all the time. I like that Pimco will sometimes hold as much as 85% of their fund in cash if they don't see anything worth buying. Of course, they swing a pretty large bat, so they can't just go hog wild with their moves.

I think the baby boomers have had enough, and they'll stay conservative from now on, with what they have left.
Disregard all prognostications.
  • #10,739
  • Sep 17, 2010 4:16pm Sep 17, 2010 4:16pm
Quoting Pidgeon
I think the baby boomers have had enough, and they'll stay conservative from now on, with what they have left.


This statement is more important that most people understand. I think it might be a new trend myself....
  • #10,740
  • Sep 17, 2010 4:19pm Sep 17, 2010 4:19pm
I have already got a message wondering if I am still long EUR/CHF. The answer is yes. Rumors about Ireland and a nice retest of the break out area are both causing the trade to go a little south.

However, I fully expected the retest.....albeit a little further down the road.

Still waiting for 1.35, which truthfully, we were about to see at the rate this pair was moving.

Oh well, stops are in, and it's the weekend.....which means I have a newsletter to write.
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