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Commercial products must have track record

  • #21
  • Sep 9, 2010 2:04pm Sep 9, 2010 2:04pm
Quoting StephanusR
The brokers are gaming myfxbook.com because it generates free advertisement for them as people click on the results. Large equity gains are usually from cracked copies of mt4 server edition hosted somewhere in Kazakhstan or Russia far away from the regulatory reach of the NFA.
From your own statement here I dont get what your shtick is. You claim people should show you statements by using myfxbook and then you say that myfxbook is easily manipulated.

So once someone does show you results, then what? Accuse them of uploading false statements?

Sounds like you have just got a bone to pick with everyone. Maybe you should quit crying and just learn to trade for yourself instead of relying so much on others and their "faked" statements. But then you would have no one to blame but yourself for your mistakes... and I know you would hate to have to do that!
  • #22
  • Sep 9, 2010 5:22pm Sep 9, 2010 5:22pm
Quoting traderjai_inhi
From your own statement here I dont get what your shtick is. You claim people should show you statements by using myfxbook and then you say that myfxbook is easily manipulated.
So once someone does show you results, then what? Accuse them of uploading false statements?
If you claim to have a flock of flying dragons in your home, it is not for me to prove or disprove anything. Anything can be fabricated on a PC, the person claiming to trade must provide a means of such claims to be disproven or falsified. Google for Karel Popper and falsification on wikipedia.

http://www.stocktwits.com is probably the only means of bringing in transparency. http://www.robbinstrading.com/worldcup/standings.asp is hosting the pfgbest futures trading contest. One needs minimum $15000 to participate. The scam is that they allow a trader to have any number of accounts of $15000. This is not fair to a trader who only has $15000 to enter and can only have one account thus.

With http://www.stocktwits.com you as an individual are only allowed one alias, they won't tolerate spamming of their board by sock puppets.

Andrea Unger is the winner of the 2009 contest and presently having two accounts in second and third place, is "sock puppeting" in a sense. His other 100 futures accounts of $15000 each running at steep losses he isn't telling us about.

Andrea Unger is basically gaming the system like a Russian hacker games myfxbook.com by selling worhtless EA's just at a much more sophisticated level using a futures account. It at least indicates that he really is making 113% gain on two out of his 100 simultaneous futures accounts.

It thus generates the illusion that Andrea Unger can actually trade, he can't unless he can prove the opposite. Note the principle of falsifiability, I don't have to prove anything, he makes the claim, he must provide the evidence, like for example his tax return.

The trading contest thus generates hype creating a false impression leading naive investors investing with Andrea Unger.

Lets presume he has 30 real futures accounts and all of them are positive. The only way to prove this is to provide his tax return . If he won't take a chance lying to on his income tax he probably won't lie to an investor.

The onus is on him to make his claims falsifiable.
  • #23
  • Sep 10, 2010 1:34am Sep 10, 2010 1:34am
Quoting StephanusR
If you claim to have...
What pfgbest must do in the trading contest is take all 50 accounts by Unger and average them. This would then reflect reality because the whole purpose of trading is generating a certain percentage net gain on equity employed whether $15000 or $15mil.

It is dishonest to only show the two accounts that made gains and not the other 48 running at a loss. Some might say how do I know he has 48? I don't of course, from our Popper principle of falsification it isn't for me to prove or disprove any claims made by Unger: he has to prove it.
  • #24
  • Sep 10, 2010 3:26pm Sep 10, 2010 3:26pm
Quoting StephanusR
Major problem with real accounts is that you could have 100 real accounts and only tell us about the 1 that made money. This is why stocktwits.com is far better than a real account.

Much more chance that you have 10000 demo accounts than 10 real accounts because demo money is not real money.

Stocktwits only tracks your calls, nothing beats a real account with real money on the line, IMHO..
  • #25
  • Sep 10, 2010 3:27pm Sep 10, 2010 3:27pm
Quoting StephanusR
What pfgbest must do in the trading contest is take all 50 accounts by Unger and average them.


How do you know that Unger has 50 accounts ?
  • #26
  • Sep 11, 2010 3:25pm Sep 11, 2010 3:25pm
Quoting StephanusR
If you claim to have...
StockTwits is about what people say they did which is the exact opposite of transparency.

Transparency is get what people do directly from their brokers without any ability for them to change the data.

-- Asaf.
  • #27
  • Sep 12, 2010 10:31am Sep 12, 2010 10:31am
Quoting asafyigal
StockTwits is about what people say they did which is the exact opposite of transparency.

Transparency is get what people do directly from their brokers without any ability for them to change the data.

-- Asaf.
You are mistaken. http://stocktwits.com/stephanusR logs the exact time and date down to the minute of whatever real-trade was given. It can't be removed ever, thus it is far better than a real account because I Stephanus Rensburg can only have one stocktwits.com account and thus only chance at proving my trading ability.

In contrast http://www.robbinstrading.com/worldcup/standings.asp winner Andrea Unger and his company https://www.worldcupadvisor.com/ are given 100 chances to generate a profit from 100 real futures accounts. This is a cloud-coo-coo land fantasy world that doesn't reflect reality. One could indeed have 100 futures accounts of $15000 , but at the end of the financial year the IRS tax authority wants to know what was your net gain or loss.

Thus in the real world making fuss about having two futures accounts out of 100 showing gains of 100% means you are either mentally deficient or trying to fraudulently misrepresent your trading proficiency.

https://www.worldcupadvisor.com/ the company Andrea Unger is working for must show us all the personal futures accounts held by Unger as well as his tax return. The whole purpose of trading is making a net profit on equity employed whether in one or 100 futures accounts.

https://www.worldcupadvisor.com/ represents the high end of skill full trading performance misrepresentation.

Note that it isn't for me to disprove that he only has one or two futures accounts and not 100, it is for him as per the principle of falsifiability to prove that he doesn't since he is soliciting for clients and trying to present himself has being able to time the markets.
  • #28
  • Sep 12, 2010 7:45pm Sep 12, 2010 7:45pm
Quoting StephanusR
You are mistaken. http://stocktwits.com/stephanusR logs the exact time and date down to the minute of whatever real-trade was given. It can't be removed ever, thus it is far better than a real account because I Stephanus Rensburg can only have one stocktwits.com account and thus only chance at proving my trading ability.

In contrast http://www.robbinstrading.com/worldcup/standings.asp winner Andrea Unger and his company https://www.worldcupadvisor.com/ are given 100 chances to generate a profit from 100...
First of all you can have as many names as you want on StockTwits.

Second of all you tell them what you trade and at what price you trade it which is absolutely ridiculous that anyone can ever even think that this is transparency.

-- Asaf.
  • #29
  • Sep 12, 2010 7:58pm Sep 12, 2010 7:58pm
Quoting asafyigal
First of all you can have as many names as you want on StockTwits.
You just agreed with his point without realizing it. One account to one trader.
  • #30
  • Sep 12, 2010 8:13pm Sep 12, 2010 8:13pm
Quoting StephanusR
You are mistaken. http://stocktwits.com/stephanusR logs the exact time and date down to the minute of whatever real-trade was given. It can't be removed ever, thus it is far better than a real account
I thought you said stockwits was, basically, an IM service? Please correct me if wrong. If I'm right, then this isn't much better than the rock star (demo) traders in the FF Journal / Public Masturbation section since the real test only can come when real money is on the line.
  • #31
  • Sep 13, 2010 6:54am Sep 13, 2010 6:54am
Quoting asafyigal
First of all you can have as many names as you want on StockTwits.

Second of all you tell them what you trade and at what price you trade it which is absolutely ridiculous that anyone can ever even think that this is transparency.

-- Asaf.
Asafyigal is the founder of http://www.currensee.com which has the same problem as http://www.robbinstrading.com/worldcup/standings.asp ,
https://www.worldcupadvisor.com/ and
http://www.worldcupadvisor.com/world...ult_nwcc2.aspx

they allow hundreds of real accounts but only publish the winning accounts. What you are supposed to do is publish all your 300 real accounts and provide the net gain as % of net equity employed.

It is true that one can game http://stocktwits.com/stephanusR and create hundreds of aliases but would be very difficult and pretty much pointless. On a balance of probabilities I think most would agree that I Stephanus Rensburg from South Africa only have one stocktwits.com account. See my Google groups where I have been giving many real-time trades now for over a year.

Your company http://www.currensee.com promoted http://www.spyglasstrading.co.uk who made the following claim:
Mike Baghdady WINNER! of the Live Trading World Championship Frankfurt 2009

But there is no such event held annually in Germany. Mike Baghdady has also not published his personal real accounts anywhere.

World trading championship also doesn't exist

The only audited by the NFA that does exist is this one:
http://www.robbinstrading.com/worldcup/standings.asp which was won by Larry Williams.
  • #32
  • Edited 7:09am Sep 13, 2010 6:57am | Edited 7:09am
Quoting StephanusR
It is true that one can game http://stocktwits.com/stephanusR and create hundreds of aliases but would be very difficult and pretty much pointless. On a balance of probabilities I think most would agree that I Stephanus Rensburg from South Africa only have one stocktwits.com account. See my Google groups where I have been giving many real-time trades now for over a year.
My Google groups thread on forex is at:

http://groups.google.com/group/futures-trading/topics updates and discussion is done on my real-time trades at http://stocktwits.com/stephanusR at the group.
  • #33
  • Edited 3:22pm Sep 14, 2010 2:48pm | Edited 3:22pm
I made the same post in the 'vote' thread. The voting result there speaks for itself. Even though the voting sample is small, it does show the wishes of most traders/customers towards preferring accountability and verifiable track records from commercial vendors. Like most mutual funds out there, they are publishing multi-year auditable return figures out there so that potential customers can make more informed decision. I personally believe that if you sell a product to help people make trading profit, and yet reluctant to publish a real verifiable statement of your own trading using your method, it shows a lack of confidence in consistent performance of the product. It is understandable for the bigger and established vendors not willing to do this. They have nothing to gain. If they publish a profitable statement, it is supposed so. If it is a losing or mediocre statement, they lose subscribers by the masses. But this is the point, lack of confidence in consistency of performance, and fearing to compare with other lesser/newer vendors who can only gain more business if their published statements are consistently good with sound money management and low drawdown. After Jacko, people should demand more accountability from commercial vendors, and FF can feel more secured that their members or site visitors are more informed on the products/services being promoted at their site. I do hope FF will do something in this regard to categorize vendors with verifiable statements and those without. I personally will not spend any time reading those wi/o a verifiable statement. That is just my personal choice. Don't want to waste time reading 100's of pages, even 1000's if the method being promoted has no live verifiable track record. Most of us have a day job or with family responsibilities. The little time we have to read up so many methods/products promoted, we need to spend on those that we can see real live verifiable results. Tired of just trusting some strangers' words. Show us the real beef!!!

(by the way, I am reading up on Mr. Smith's thread as he is doing live trading with his method (which he claims is J16 or close to it), even though he does not sell anything. Go go, Mr. Smith and thanks.)

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif

  • #34
  • Sep 15, 2010 1:00am Sep 15, 2010 1:00am
Quoting fxbillie
I made the same post in the 'vote' thread. The voting result there speaks for itself. Even though the voting sample is small, it does show the wishes of most traders/customers towards preferring accountability and verifiable track records from commercial vendors. Like most mutual funds out there, they are publishing multi-year auditable return figures out there so that potential customers can make more informed decision. I personally believe that if you sell a product to help people make trading profit, and yet reluctant to publish a real verifiable...
The problem remains with hedge funds and large futures traders that they constantly change the name of their company or fund , but it remains the same people. Which is like imagine you could change your identity to IRS tax authority in your winning trading year to Mr. Bollard and then back to Mr. Buckley in your losing year. I addressed this issue here with a Nigerian scammer posting a real account from a client, one of many accounts he has:

[BOTTOM][TOP]Nigerian scammer

http://www.myfxbook.com/community/tr...=2&p=2&o=51476

forexma posted: "...As you may see this ain't some 100$ account but it was rather a 40-50k account. Scammers don't conduct experiments on 50k live account...."

Correct, they conduct it with other people's money at no risk to themselves. The trader of this account is a Nigerian. He has many accounts trading other people's money , taking 30% profit from the winning accounts and none from the losing accounts. The fraud is that he only uploaded a winning account and didn't show us his losing accounts. He is running 100 EA's of which one worked, the one he uploaded. The other 99 accounts he didn't take commission .

Now how do I know he is running 100 EA's? I don't of course, as explained it isn't for me to prove or disprove anything he says but for him to make his claims falsifiable. Look up falsifiability on Google if you don't know what it means.

Some say I am making "accusations" . An accusation would be more in line with saying somebody stole sweets at Walmart for which I would then have to provide the proof or my accusation would remain unfalsifiable , it could be true or not . I am not so much "accusing" anybody as insisting on the person making the claims to have such claims be possible to disprove.

If you are claiming trading proficiency then such claims must be able to be disproven as I Stephanus Rensburg have done at http://stocktwits.com/stephanusR which is in line with the Karl Popper principle of falsifiability. In other words I am not trying so much to prove my trading ability but rather for independent observers to disprove my assertion that I can time the futures and forex market.
  • #35
  • Sep 15, 2010 2:47am Sep 15, 2010 2:47am
For the stocktwits.com reference, do you just type in what people see? Is it possible to just put something in after the fact, along with the chart? It doesn't seem clear on their site how anything is validated except taking the word of the poster....and that gets back to manipulation if it isn't real time....and if it takes the reader to look at the charts and compare the time posted to the actual price on a chart, I doubt if anyone will spend the time doing that.

Again, I don't know so just looking for clarification....
  • #36
  • Sep 15, 2010 3:06am Sep 15, 2010 3:06am
Here's a proposition. If you're a badass trader, fine. Open an escrow account in the same amount as funds you receive from clients. Take 60% of all profits, but if you loose, that amount is paid back to the client through the escrow acct.
  • #37
  • Sep 15, 2010 8:50am Sep 15, 2010 8:50am
Quoting moneymaker2
For the stocktwits.com reference, do you just type in what people see? Is it possible to just put something in after the fact, along with the chart? It doesn't seem clear on their site how anything is validated except taking the word of the poster....and that gets back to manipulation if it isn't real time....and if it takes the reader to look at the charts and compare the time posted to the actual price on a chart, I doubt if anyone will spend the time doing that.
Few minutes ago I gave a real-time long signal on CL_F the oil contract.
# Avatar stephanusR tr.49 $CL_F long at market Sep. 15 at 4:06 PM

http://stocktwits.com/stephanusR/message/1832950

Note how the time is logged and no , nobody can alter the message or remove it, which is why it is better than a real account , especially given the fact that the account is older than a year.
  • #38
  • Jan 5, 2011 6:38am Jan 5, 2011 6:38am
Quoting StephanusR
Asafyigal is the founder of http://www.currensee.com which has the same problem as http://www.robbinstrading.com/worldcup/standings.asp ,
https://www.worldcupadvisor.com/...
Mike Baghdady makes no money from trading despite claiming to be a world champion. The attached document was published on the New Turtle Traders facebook page. It is an affadavit for his bankruptcy filing. His only income is from his training company.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf https___ecf.nyeb.uscourts.gov_cgi-bin_show_temp.pl_file=10373049-0-nyeb-10964.pdf   89 KB | 745 downloads
  • #39
  • Jan 5, 2011 10:27am Jan 5, 2011 10:27am
Quoting 89tick
Mike Baghdady makes no money from trading despite claiming to be a world champion. The attached document was published on the New Turtle Traders facebook page. It is an affadavit for his bankruptcy filing. His only income is from his training company.
There where a few interesting threads at Trade 2 Win about Mike Baghdady and his ridiculous claims. Until of course the T2W mods deleted them as he's a "T2W partner" paying to advertise his fraudulent business activities there !

There was some hillarious stuff about the guy Ben who claims to be a successful hedge fund trader is the spyglass adverts. It turns out he was Baghdady's office cleaner who's now complaining that his salary was never paid.
  • #40
  • Jan 5, 2011 2:57pm Jan 5, 2011 2:57pm
Quoting Razzle
There where a few interesting threads at Trade 2 Win about Mike Baghdady and his ridiculous claims. Until of course the T2W mods deleted them as he's a "T2W partner" paying to advertise his fraudulent business activities there !

There was some hillarious stuff about the guy Ben who claims to be a successful hedge fund trader is the spyglass adverts. It turns out he was Baghdady's office cleaner who's now complaining that his salary was never paid.
Yes Ben appeared on a Bloomberg TV ad pretending to be a hedge fund manager, turns out he worked for Baghdady and the hedge fund was totally fake.
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