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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #231,781
  • Sep 14, 2010 9:06pm Sep 14, 2010 9:06pm
Quoting Beljevina
Noda has confirmed intervention - come on - let's do it - keep the funds coming!!!

120 pips in UJ so far - that's average good-to-positive news type movement - we need more from this puppy!?! Come on 131.5, my first TP.

Bloomberg saying BoJ will provide ample liquidity to the market - sounds like a by the hour, or at key interval points. Who was around 6 years ago when they last did this? What type of timeline do they work on?
Yen Falls Versus Dollar as Noda to Speak to Reporters in Tokyo
Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A
By Ronnie Harui

Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The yen weakened after Japan’s Ministry of Finance said it would address reporters at 10:50 a.m. in Tokyo. Kyodo News reported that Japan intervened in the currency market to weaken the yen.

The yen traded at 83.84 to the dollar as of 10:39 a.m. in Tokyo. Japan’s currency closed at 83.04 in New York yesterday.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ronnie Harui in Singapore at [email protected]

Last Updated: September 14, 2010 21:40 EDT
  • #231,782
  • Sep 14, 2010 9:19pm Sep 14, 2010 9:19pm
brilliant isn't it. Morgan Stanley spread around rumours of US QE2 last night killed the UJ only to recant on that rumour a mere 5 hours later. now BoJ intervention sending UJ screaming skywards. In a perfectly legal world MS would have been fined heavily for blatant rumourmongering and if they profited from the movement would have had its banking license revoked for outright market manipulation. In a perfectly realistic world the Feds/BoJ are more than likely hosting an exclusive party with the heads of MS as guest of honour, all expenses paid inclusive - food, drinks, entertainment and, if the SEC's any example of an governmental body, intimate company as well
  • #231,783
  • Sep 14, 2010 9:23pm Sep 14, 2010 9:23pm
133 next target? Don't have any experience with intervention.
Can this change the trend or will we back off down again after a while?

Any help here is appreciated.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #231,784
  • Sep 14, 2010 9:24pm Sep 14, 2010 9:24pm
Closed all longs here. Off to college now.

See you all LO.

Killerwhale watch the levels marked.

How about retrace whole move to around 129.50/60 area ??????Not taking this trade. I'am flat now.
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  • #231,785
  • Sep 14, 2010 9:28pm Sep 14, 2010 9:28pm
Quoting KillerWhale
133 next target? Don't have any experience with intervention.
Can this change the trend or will we back off down again after a while?

Any help here is appreciated.
They'll usually hit the market in stages. I'll wager the first hit is over now. They'll monitor it for a while before choosing another time to go all in, my guess would be during the Euro dawn period just after the NK and ASX have closed when liquidity is low and the effect would be felt the greatest.

I still have strong doubts about a trend reversal though. BoJ's not gonna succeed with intervention on its own, especially not in an environment when the US officials are squeeing with glee everytime the USD goes down another notch.
  • #231,786
  • Sep 14, 2010 9:28pm Sep 14, 2010 9:28pm
Price is on the descending TL, which is intersecting with the Ichi kumo top and Monthly Dynamic Balance Point.

Depending how this area plays out may go in for more. But that could be it for now.

This session's PA was like a week of Asia sessions wrapped into one. No need to give any of it back.
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  • #231,787
  • Sep 14, 2010 9:32pm Sep 14, 2010 9:32pm
The market is so crazy for retail trade. Thank god i was not around when it breached the TL to place shorts .placed shorts on gu last night and running at free (BE)
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  • #231,788
  • Sep 14, 2010 9:36pm Sep 14, 2010 9:36pm
They shouldn't let friggin TLs dictate how far they go ... 85 in UJ would be around 131.5, although UJ's pausing here at above 84.2. Timing is key here too I think - not sure if I expect them to be active beyond the next 30 min - will TP some at the next hour close probably. There's gotta be some launching power in this puppy for more as longs pile in, plus I'm not sure I'd expect more than 23% retraces, and healthy support to be built there. Anyone with deep pockets shorting this isn't thinking clearly IMHO. Sure, we retailers can scalp a short if you feel like it, but who would short against BoJ with 100 lot intervals!
  • #231,789
  • Sep 14, 2010 9:37pm Sep 14, 2010 9:37pm
Quoting Eulogy
They'll usually hit the market in stages. I'll wager the first hit is over now. They'll monitor it for a while before choosing another time to go all in, my guess would be during the Euro dawn period just after the NK and ASX have closed when liquidity is low and the effect would be felt the greatest.

I still have strong doubts about a trend reversal though. BoJ's not gonna succeed with intervention on its own, especially not in an environment when the US officials are squeeing with glee everytime the USD goes down another notch.
Very good hint, thank you Eulogy
I'll stay flat for the moment.
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  • #231,790
  • Sep 14, 2010 9:43pm Sep 14, 2010 9:43pm
Quoting Beljevina
They shouldn't let friggin TLs dictate how far they go ... 85 in UJ would be around 131.5, although UJ's pausing here at above 84.2. Timing is key here too I think - not sure if I expect them to be active beyond the next 30 min - will TP some at the next hour close probably. There's gotta be some launching power in this puppy for more as longs pile in, plus I'm not sure I'd expect more than 23% retraces, and healthy support to be built there. Anyone with deep pockets shorting this isn't thinking clearly IMHO. Sure, we retailers can scalp a...
There's probably more to come. 84.37 is key resistance UJ, and Eulogy made a good point.

London should be very interesting. This move was on Asia volume. Let's see what the market thinks when Europe wakes up.

Possibly an ineresting thing to check on are the SNB interventions during Asia session last year and where price moved on London open.

They're not even over the 200EMA on the 4H yet which is in your target area. For them to have any lasting effect with this, they need to at least get above that.

Also the weak Dollar is a mixed can of worms for the US. We don't know is this is co-ordinated yet or not, but the US has a delicate balance to maintain between the benefits of a weak Dollar for exports, and creating a panic if it slips too low. If they're in on this, then it could get interesting.
  • #231,791
  • Sep 14, 2010 10:06pm Sep 14, 2010 10:06pm
longs? you have got to be kidding me.
short term, maybe. medium term, might be possible if the japanese keep hitting it. but between here and a trend reversal... need to see MUCH more.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #231,792
  • Sep 14, 2010 10:09pm Sep 14, 2010 10:09pm
Ah, well out for dinner and come back my long at 82.99 TP'ed at 84.5.. sweet.. (though I had the impluse to set the TP at 86.. wonder if we'll get that far??)

Its just giving us a better price to re-enter shorts. Wait a day or so and the DT will resume
  • #231,793
  • Sep 14, 2010 10:15pm Sep 14, 2010 10:15pm
Quoting Eulogy
brilliant isn't it. Morgan Stanley spread around rumours of US QE2 last night killed the UJ only to recant on that rumour a mere 5 hours later. now BoJ intervention sending UJ screaming skywards. In a perfectly legal world MS would have been fined heavily for blatant rumourmongering and if they profited from the movement would have had its banking license revoked for outright market manipulation. In a perfectly realistic world the Feds/BoJ are more than likely hosting an exclusive party with the heads of MS as guest of honour, all expenses paid...
Excellent catch & good post - it's important to be aware of how the real world works. There's no perfect leak-proof factually cold way to run things in the world, and these 'compromises' can, on balance, be good for many people. Unfortunately, taken too far by those out of touch, you get your Lehmans, Enrons, etc.

Your input on the timeline for intervention makes sense too. I was trying to place and do some math on how many multiples of tens of billions they would have to drop; not going to bother, as I read elsewhere that it's estimated their war chest is 45 trillion yen, or $530B US. Wikipedia places that at 10% of their GDP; SNB blew 33% of their GDP and got nothing. More math to do here I know but in the meantime ...

GY coming up on that 131.5, UJ heading to 85. Am trying to predictive fib the move up, thinking the last 45 minute pause was maybe 50% of the run-up? Would love them to do more during that low liquidity pre-London time. Am also wondering what Frankfurt will do ... they couldn't possibly create down movement in this market could they? There must be some gentlemen's agreements with the BIS, SNB, et all. Man, this is gonna be fun ... !
  • #231,794
  • Edited 10:55pm Sep 14, 2010 10:38pm | Edited 10:55pm
Quoting grashid
yup..Kan won DPJ vote n look like intervention stuff back to discuss i think..probably by next week it may happen...look at EY..stuck ~ 107 area n look like waiting something...

my yesterday EY not so good but AUD look great atm...close Ey n lock BE+5 on AUD

bb in 1 hr mate n good job to u too
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=231725

honeybhi..300+pips on GY as well as 200+ on EY...marvellous...

but be honest i did not expect interventation today...as i think will be happen next week...

but when i take a look daily pin n overshoot in gold, i start thinking something going to happen soon....

so i am consider this is my lucky trade......n definetely i am not suprise 138-140 till next week if this week close like this double bottom for both pair...

damm..finally worsen trade in august n in few hr make a double monthly profit...that is how wonderfull of FOREX..anything can happen......

good luck guys...i going to take my long vacation after this
  • #231,795
  • Sep 14, 2010 11:55pm Sep 14, 2010 11:55pm
UJ hitting 85.1 just ahead of some significant areas of resistance. Made it through 84.85. GY at 131.82 - don't see much to stop it here.

No time like the present during low liquidity to move it up past 85.25. If they do, 85.9 is a pretty good reach for Intervention Night #1. That might get us to 132.53 for GJ. And then, could you imagine some sterling buying, or good Claimant Count in 3.5hrs? But if sterling gets 132+ on it's own merit, that's OK too!
  • #231,796
  • Sep 14, 2010 11:58pm Sep 14, 2010 11:58pm
Quoting Beljevina
UJ hitting 85.1 just ahead of some significant areas of resistance. Made it through 84.85. GY at 131.82 - don't see much to stop it here.

No time like the present during low liquidity to move it up past 85.25. If they do, 85.9 is a pretty good reach for Intervention Night #1. That might get us to 132.53 for GJ. And then, could you imagine some sterling buying, or good Claimant Count in 3.5hrs? But if sterling gets 132+ on it's own merit, that's OK too!
I'm with ya, Bel. I'm about to go to bed, but set to take my GY positions off at 132.65 and I've got an order in to go long GBP/USD at 1.5470

We'll see what happens overnight. I hope everyone was on the right side of this craziness. Sure is nice to see some volatility after months of very little.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #231,797
  • Sep 15, 2010 12:28am Sep 15, 2010 12:28am
Quoting Geppy
I'm with ya, Bel. I'm about to go to bed, but set to take my GY positions off at 132.65 and I've got an order in to go long GBP/USD at 1.5470

We'll see what happens overnight. I hope everyone was on the right side of this craziness. Sure is nice to see some volatility after months of very little.
i believe it should retrace from now little bit then back up back in NY session...
  • #231,798
  • Sep 15, 2010 12:40am Sep 15, 2010 12:40am
Quoting grashid
i believe it should retrace from now little bit then back up back in NY session...
how much retracement you are expecting?

Ub
  • #231,799
  • Sep 15, 2010 12:48am Sep 15, 2010 12:48am
Quoting ubaidahsan
how much retracement you are expecting?

Ub
80-150pips from today high for GY
80-100pips for EY from today high...

i am close half of my long n lock at 128.40 for gy n 108 for EY (but i am not really firm with EY atm) as we can c it will drag AUDUSD as well..

UJ just nice as am posted in my blog....bb in london

good luck
  • #231,800
  • Sep 15, 2010 12:58am Sep 15, 2010 12:58am
Quoting grashid
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=231725

honeybhi..300+pips on GY as well as 200+ on EY...marvellous...

but be honest i did not expect interventation today...as i think will be happen next week...

but when i take a look daily pin n overshoot in gold, i start thinking something going to happen soon....

so i am consider this is my lucky trade......n definetely i am not suprise 138-140 till next week if this week close like this double bottom for both pair...

damm..finally worsen trade in august n in few hr...
Yeah 300 pips ,4hr played out as expected .
But it did rise another 100 pips. Anyways

I'am also planning a holiday next week

Now Waiting for a fresh setup .

Good luck bro
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