Pair Divergence Method

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Good to hear...I guess I just missed something then. Anyway, results from live trading this week were 3 wins, 2 losses. 1:1 R:R. Still lots more of March to go!

A little off-topic, but...

E/U and U/C have been very correlated recently, and (subsequently?) E/C action has ground to a halt.

Is this the spring tightening before it expands? What do you think?

March ended with 30 paper trades, 20 wins and 10 losses. Average win was 1.04 times the average loss. Expectancy result of 0.33.

I've been toying around with using the original 2xATR for a TP but only 75% of it for a SL. I have two years of back test data now, and I have the 75% SL data for 19/24 months. Expectancy of doing that for this month would have been slightly lower, at 0.3 (18-12 with average win being 1.37x the average loss).

However, on the whole so far, 75% SL seems to smooth the equity curve, making drawdowns not as bad, but also occasionally chopping some off the top of the breakout months. Of the 19 months that I have data for, 13 of them would have resulted in making more or losing less money. I've recorded one winning month going to a loss, switching to this method.

Since I hear so much about capital preservation being a key to staying in this game, I will seriously consider going live with 1.5xATR stop losses and 2xATR take profits. The scary part (for me at least) comes when you're throwing down multiple lots with a 12p (or similarly small) stop loss, as trading fixed fractional with a non-trivial bankroll and this method would dictate. Can anyone speak to their experience with large, highly leveraged orders? Or am I just being a sissy?

Average stop loss for this past month would have been 20 pips with the 75% method...

Update! I'm now trading this system live, every day. I'm taking trades occurring between 1AM and 12PM (noon) Eastern time, and I'm using 75% of the 2x ATR for my SL, 100% of the 2x ATR for my TP. 2.25% of account lost on a loss, 3% of account won on a win.

The repainting of the overlay that I was worried about is true. I just took a trade based off of a 1 pip difference in the overlay (left red peak was 1.0655, right red peak was 1.0656). It was stopped out, and that's fine, but the peaks now both read 1.0655. I am sure that it repainted, because I triple checked the values in the data window both before and after entering the trade. Only ~10 minutes after the bar had closed did it repaint.

It concerns me, because I imagine during all of the manual backtesting the peak values never changed, and this is an example of where I would not have taken the trade, assuming that in a manual backtest scenario I would have seen both peaks at 1.0655. It may not matter in the long run, and I will keep track of which trades were affected by this phenomenon.

Is there any one who trade with this system, it is quite interesting, why everybody given up?

I trade this system live everyday, and I've stopped posting daily updates because they wouldn't be any different than the past 4+ months of updates I've already posted

I'll still post monthly results though, and I'm monitoring the thread for questions.

i am trying this method with usdindx and results are much better but i can not go back with overlaychartline for more backtests could someone explain it to me if it is possible, by the way sorry for my bad english

How are you using the USD index? Could you post a chart?

April results trading full 2x ATR on both TP and SL would have landed you a loss this month trading 3% FF MM. I tracked 10 wins and 11 losses with the average win being 0.93 of the average loss and expectancy of -0.08. Trading with SL = 1.5x ATR would have been expectancy of 0.05. I ruled out three trades across the 2nd and 5th due to bank holidays.

Unfortunately with my live trading I popped in during the second half of the month (where I caught a string of 5 losses!) and was down 4.6% at the end of April. I'm currently short U/C on a less than stellar pattern setup, but I'm trying to trade as mechanically as possible for now so I still took it.

May ended for me with 31 trades: 16 wins and 15 losses, with the average loss being 67% of the average win (I'm trading SL = 1.5xATR). Expectancy resulted in 0.17. It was a great month following April, and it really lifted my spirits.

I'm looking forward to June!

updates? Thanks for sharing

interesting method

Oops, forgot to post June results.

For my personal trading, June ended down 4.9%. I got lucky though and missed a losing trade. I guess you could say I was also unlucky, in that I had two trades that missed TP levels by 1 and 2 pips.

For system trades, I recorded 14 wins and 22 losses, with the average loss being 77% of the average win (remember, I'm trading with stop loss = 1.5x ATR). This results in expectancy of -0.09 if I did that math right.

The last day of June trading had two losses itself, reminding me that "it ain't over till it's over"

Hi ronaldosim, I am looking for MultipleCurrencies indicator, where can I get that?

here it is http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2687600

July and August updates!

July: 32 trades, 13 wins 19 losses, average loser was 0.74 of the average winner. Expectancy: -0.033.

August: 29 trades, 15 wins and 14 losses. Average loser was 0.75 of the average winner. Expectancy: 0.155

August includes two trades that were on a GBP bank holiday... I meant to not trade but didn't notice until it was too late.

so you really havent made many pips in the last 3 months ?

Correct. The past three months have been hard, and I've not seen the historical returns I expected. C'est la vie -- that's why we have savings accounts

September is looking OK so far, but I'm not counting any chickens.

September results!

Quiet month with only 18 trades: 10 wins 8 losses. Average loser was 0.75 times the average winner. E = 0.22 and profit factor = 1.70. Personal account was +11.7%