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Trading "The Constrictor"

  • #201
  • Sep 11, 2010 8:53am Sep 11, 2010 8:53am
Quoting unlv_tj
You handled that trade like a real pro Ghous....
Quite clearly that BUOB looked very strong to me, and part of a strong bar is hard break that sustains itself. Given that we didn't get it (understandbly too - we had resistance overhead) and that we were approaching late Friday and the weekend, I found it pretty ok to kill the trade.

By the looks of it, it did seem a good decision though I quite clearly remember some occasions where I killed a trade and it took off and made me look like an impatient dumbass lol. Keyword here being "some".

You gotta do what work for you most of the times.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #202
  • Sep 11, 2010 1:14pm Sep 11, 2010 1:14pm
That was ( and is ) still a very good idea. But I think many traders are impatient with gbpchf not breaking out strong - as long as usdchf doesnt make its move we have to wait a bit.

Thanks nonetheless and respect for "killing" at low -R.
Be like water.
  • #203
  • Sep 11, 2010 1:33pm Sep 11, 2010 1:33pm
Here's a setup I have my eyes on.

Not a really big bar though which makes me wonder if it has the muscle to challenge 1.55

we'll see...

g.
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I believe . . .
  • #204
  • Sep 11, 2010 7:14pm Sep 11, 2010 7:14pm
Quoting ghous
Here's a setup I have my eyes on.

Not a really big bar though which makes me wonder if it has the muscle to challenge 1.55

we'll see...

g.
Waiting for a break lower...unless the bulls put on the "brake"
Attached Image
  • #205
  • Sep 11, 2010 8:53pm Sep 11, 2010 8:53pm
Hey Ghous,

First of all thank you for sharing this promising strategy. Spent some time to go through the vides and all 14 pages.

Does this fit into ET3 ?

Overall trend is down.
A few weeks back 9900 acted as resistance and moved price up
Finally last month 9900 was broken.

Now there is a pin bar off of 9900 and EMA 21.

The thing I don't like is -
PB is sitting on top of 9800..
PB close is higher than open (green pin not red)


I am NOT sure the bounce from 9500 looks threatning to change the trend or it is just a retracment to stay with the trend. I belive this matters a lot.

Thoughts ?
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  • #206
  • Sep 12, 2010 2:06am Sep 12, 2010 2:06am
Quoting cprao
Hey Ghous,

First of all thank you for sharing this promising strategy. Spent some time to go through the vides and all 14 pages.

Does this fit into ET3 ?

Overall trend is down.
A few weeks back 9900 acted as resistance and moved price up
Finally last month 9900 was broken.

Now there is a pin bar off of 9900 and EMA 21.

[color=black]The thing I don't like is -
PB is sitting on top of 9800..
PB close is higher than open (green pin not red)


I am NOT sure the bounce from 9500 looks threatning...
Hey Cp,

Yeah that bar would have been so much more appealing if it had a bearish close below 9800, Though I really like how it's off that heavy former support zone (9950). I might actually go for this trade more as a J16 trade for a quick profit above the 9700 mark.

It lines up as an ET3 yes (price pulling away from the 21 and then giving off PA the first time it comes back after some time) but then I like to hold on to my constrictor trades, and this one is more heading into a consolidation box (traffic area) than a non-threatening pull back to the 21. As it is the 9500 has been a key pivoting zone for price for quite some time now. I am unwilling to babysit this one out through all those traffic areas and down to the 9500 and beyond.

But like I said it does line up nicely for a J16 trade for me, if we get a good hard break on Monday, in which case the 9800 (and those three bar highs) will allow for a real tight yet well protected stop placement.

g.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I believe . . .
  • #207
  • Sep 12, 2010 7:36am Sep 12, 2010 7:36am
Quoting ghous
Hey Cp,

Yeah that bar would have been so much more appealing if it had a bearish close below 9800, Though I really like how it's off that heavy former support zone (9950). I might actually go for this trade more as a J16 trade for a quick profit above the 9700 mark.

It lines up as an ET3 yes (price pulling away from the 21 and then giving off PA the first time it comes back after some time) but then I like to hold on to my constrictor trades, and this one is more heading into a consolidation box (traffic area) than a non-threatening pull back...
Hi Ghous----even as a J16 it appears that even after it breaks that it is heading into a strong PPZ which concerns me and watched carefully for stalling...my rookie opinion
Hope you don't mind me posting here
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  • #208
  • Sep 12, 2010 9:44am Sep 12, 2010 9:44am
Quoting ghous
Hey Cp,

Yeah that bar would have been so much more appealing if it had a bearish close below 9800, Though I really like how it's off that heavy former support zone (9950). I might actually go for this trade more as a J16 trade for a quick profit above the 9700 mark.

It lines up as an ET3 yes (price pulling away from the 21 and then giving off PA the first time it comes back after some time) but then I like to hold on to my constrictor trades, and this one is more heading into a consolidation box (traffic area) than a non-threatening pull back...
Ok. Makes sense about the traffic that will not let the trade run smoothly for an Et3 type trade. Thank you !
  • #209
  • Sep 12, 2010 1:05pm Sep 12, 2010 1:05pm
Quoting Atc
Hi Ghous----even as a J16 it appears that even after it breaks that it is heading into a strong PPZ which concerns me and watched carefully for stalling...my rookie opinion
Hope you don't mind me posting here
Hey Atc (Bill, was it?)

I agree it will surely have to be watched at very very carefully.

And dude I don't mind one bit about you posting here.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #210
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:47am Sep 14, 2010 12:47am
Some PA here please
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  • #211
  • Sep 14, 2010 5:10am Sep 14, 2010 5:10am
Quoting ghous
Some PA here please
Short Eur/Nzd

Short Eur/Aud

(oh and I went for the GBP/CAD weekly BEB as well on Monday)

g.
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I believe . . .
  • #212
  • Sep 14, 2010 7:46pm Sep 14, 2010 7:46pm
Hi G. What do you think of ET4 here?
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  • #213
  • Edited 10:01am Sep 15, 2010 9:16am | Edited 10:01am
Quoting ghous
Short Eur/Nzd

Short Eur/Aud

(oh and I went for the GBP/CAD weekly BEB as well on Monday)

g.
Are EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD not stopped out ?

I believe you took EURNZD, before it crossed EMA 21, right ? (I know you mentioned in the first post,based on traders judgement trade can be taken even before it crosses EMA 21).

I liked EURAUD. On IBFX it was a BEOB.. and solid close.. no wick. also at swing high.. But did not work out well.
  • #214
  • Sep 15, 2010 9:17am Sep 15, 2010 9:17am
Quoting Donkey
Hi G. What do you think of ET4 here?
I think it fits to ET4. Lets see what Ghous says ?
  • #215
  • Sep 15, 2010 10:10am Sep 15, 2010 10:10am
Quoting cprao
I think it fits to ET4. Lets see what Ghous says ?
Good catch. I didn't trade it based on the Daily due to the weak close.

I did watch the smaller time frames for a bounce off 1.55, and I got in on a 5 minute chart.

I risked 20 pips and ended up making 25 pips. I thought I did fine, until I looked a few hours later and saw how much more profit I could have had if I had believed in myself more.
  • #216
  • Sep 15, 2010 12:17pm Sep 15, 2010 12:17pm
Quoting ghous
Short Eur/Nzd

Short Eur/Aud

(oh and I went for the GBP/CAD weekly BEB as well on Monday)

g.
Wow those 2 4H trades shot back hard. They did pretty much what you would expect them to do in the J16 context but I clearly like to really hold on to my constrictor trades. Took full bar losses on both...no biggie - Both were setups I would take 10/10 times for sure.

Ahhh...I've hardly even dropped by the J16 thread today - let alone J16 I booted my pc after a staggering 20 hours - now that's got to be kind of a record. lol. Seriously though tough uni life starts here and advance apologies if I can't keep up with this journal all this well. I'll try my best and that you can be sure off

g.
I believe . . .
  • #217
  • Sep 15, 2010 12:24pm Sep 15, 2010 12:24pm
Quoting Donkey
Hi G. What do you think of ET4 here?
The close was a problem for me. I am all in when you get those big booming breakout bars. This was one for sure (great constriction and nice exhaustion of the pull back indicated by that consolidation which the trigger bar broke out of) but the close made me pull my finger off the mouse and I've really started to respect this gut feeling whenever it comes up.

You want to be confidently in a trade than sitting at the edge of the seat chewing your nails off.

That seems to have worked out well though, some good stuff there except the close.

g.
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I believe . . .
  • #218
  • Sep 15, 2010 12:31pm Sep 15, 2010 12:31pm
Quoting cprao
Are EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD not stopped out ?

I believe you took EURNZD, before it crossed EMA 21, right ? (I know you mentioned in the first post,based on traders judgement trade can be taken even before it crosses EMA 21).

I liked EURAUD. On IBFX it was a BEOB.. and solid close.. no wick. also at swing high.. But did not work out well.
I believe you took EURNZD, before it crossed EMA 21, right ? (I know you mentioned in the first post,based on traders judgement trade can be taken even before it crosses EMA 21).

That's right CP. I did talk about it in the introductory video and also in a post. A strong pin bar (or say an IB) may not always have to close below/above the 21 EMA to qualify for an ET3 setup. What you basically need is a strong bar coming off a non threatening pull back and a non constricted CZ to signal the continuation of an obvious trend in the market.

That Pin bar was strong enough in my book and everything lined up well.


I liked EURAUD. On IBFX it was a BEOB.. and solid close.. no wick. also at swing high.. But did not work out well.

As they say...shit happens.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #219
  • Sep 15, 2010 12:32pm Sep 15, 2010 12:32pm
Quoting unlv_tj
Good catch. I didn't trade it based on the Daily due to the weak close.

I did watch the smaller time frames for a bounce off 1.55, and I got in on a 5 minute chart.

I risked 20 pips and ended up making 25 pips. I thought I did fine, until I looked a few hours later and saw how much more profit I could have had if I had believed in myself more.
My thoughts exactly.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #220
  • Sep 15, 2010 12:36pm Sep 15, 2010 12:36pm
I said I was probably going to trade the GBP/CAD daily setup as a quick J16 trade.

Well I did place an order but pulled it off quickly as price bounced off 9800 on intra day level.

This though, just made me smile. Look where price goes once it breaks 9800. Straight for the 9700 (my "would have been" TP level) and then does what should be of no surprise to some one who agree with me that the "J16 is not credible" thread is crap.

g.
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