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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #231,681
  • Sep 13, 2010 6:41pm Sep 13, 2010 6:41pm
i think it's because of the positioning for the next (presumably) big move.
i mentioned that g-u still has a little bit of room to go down, and then it's decision time - either seriously bounce, or take a dip. u-j looks like it's almost with a bottom in place, but i wouldn't trade it just yet as i don't have a confirmation.

g-j will continue to behave like this until there's a real breakout for either (or both) g-u or u-j.

Quoting Beljevina
Longs don't appear to be in play on GY yet; is heading for either 128.8, 128.56, or if that breaks, who knows. (ie., another 50-80 pips.) Interesting to see the yens participate in equity correlation as they go down, but not seemingly when equities go up.

Looking at sterling, it's one of the weakest pairs out there, not seeing any real love (demand). Someone elsewhere mentioned it's been like a toilet seat - up and down, on a <50 pip range on too many pairs, except for of course the all powerful EURUSD. I can't imagine the pros & funds...
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #231,682
  • Sep 13, 2010 7:39pm Sep 13, 2010 7:39pm
Quoting honeybhi
SL close above orange trednline or 129.75 .

Target LTL around 128.50 area posted in previous chart.
Gooooooood Moooooorning All.

Nice to see target hit to the pip early morning.

128.50 done and LTL target still to come.

My pos falt now ,will wait for next setup.
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  • #231,683
  • Sep 13, 2010 7:43pm Sep 13, 2010 7:43pm
Quoting honeybhi
Gooooooood Moooooorning All.

Nice to see target hit to the pip early morning.


still have a bit more room to drop. ascending TL next target.
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  • #231,684
  • Sep 13, 2010 7:46pm Sep 13, 2010 7:46pm
support hit, should stop falling for now. tentative long with stops below 128. if goes below will reconsider.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #231,685
  • Sep 13, 2010 7:49pm Sep 13, 2010 7:49pm
Quoting Fudomyo


still have a bit more room to drop. ascending TL next target.
My pos got closed at 128.50 ,watch weekly S1 128.16 for a bounce.
  • #231,686
  • Sep 13, 2010 7:52pm Sep 13, 2010 7:52pm
My target if we break the descending triangle on daily .

Around 127.50.Daily S1 128.06. Long here with 30 pip stop.
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  • #231,687
  • Sep 13, 2010 7:54pm Sep 13, 2010 7:54pm
Quoting honeybhi
My pos got closed at 128.50 ,watch weekly S1 128.16 for a bounce.
target hit. 128.09 close enough...
  • #231,688
  • Sep 13, 2010 7:55pm Sep 13, 2010 7:55pm
Quoting honeybhi
My target if we break the descending triangle on daily .

Around 127.50.Daily S1 128.06. Long here with 30 pip stop.
watching same line as next downside target if the ascending daily line goes.
no longs for me yet.
  • #231,689
  • Sep 13, 2010 7:59pm Sep 13, 2010 7:59pm
Quoting Fudomyo
watching same line as next downside target if the ascending daily line goes.
no longs for me yet.
Watching this support.
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  • #231,690
  • Sep 13, 2010 8:06pm Sep 13, 2010 8:06pm
Quoting honeybhi
Watching this support.
yes.

this area could firm up. EJ seems to have found a temporary bottom around 107 as well. let's see what news brings in a 1/2 hour.

UJ is the concern, we keep chipping at support with no real bottom forming yet.

83.19 new low today.
  • #231,691
  • Sep 13, 2010 8:20pm Sep 13, 2010 8:20pm
pb target. if we get above this area, then we could potentially go for a retest of the prior support area at 4H ltl break.
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  • #231,692
  • Sep 13, 2010 8:27pm Sep 13, 2010 8:27pm
Quoting Fudomyo
pb target. if we get above this area, then we could potentially go for a retest of the prior support area at 4H ltl break.
IF the 4hr charts kick in ,then we can have a nice bull run.

But will $ retrace now ??.
  • #231,693
  • Sep 13, 2010 8:37pm Sep 13, 2010 8:37pm
Quoting honeybhi
IF the 4hr charts kick in ,then we can have a nice bull run.

But will $ retrace now ??.
Weekly S2 seems to be a temporary bottom for the USDX atm. Is support area from August.

If it holds USD may go up a bit. All TFs except the 1M trading under the 7ssma, so nothing terribly bullish about it atm.
  • #231,694
  • Sep 13, 2010 8:50pm Sep 13, 2010 8:50pm
Quoting honeybhi
Gooooooood Moooooorning All.

Nice to see target hit to the pip early morning.

128.50 done and LTL target still to come.

My pos falt now ,will wait for next setup.
good call bro..i made mistake out from shorts too early now in floating

Ub
  • #231,695
  • Sep 13, 2010 8:50pm Sep 13, 2010 8:50pm
Quoting honeybhi
IF the 4hr charts kick in ,then we can have a nice bull run.

But will $ retrace now ??.
That's the big question. I don't have a huge amount of confidence that the UJ low is in or that USDX is done. While GJ/GU has that bull run potential, it would take actual sterling demand/strength, and IMHO I don't think we have enough of that just yet, nor sentiment. But I could be wrong.

I also think that with UJ making those lower 15yr lows as it potentially heads to 79.75, there needs to be some form of either capitulation and then salvation of the US $ or some other sort of climactic, impacting and unanimously approving event to make the new low the last low before a run up for both USD and a hopefuly bull equity run.

Part of the speculation is of course BoJ coming in and making the attempt of intervention. Smart money rumours seem to put that option at a potential 82 or somewhere a bit below that. I would assume their first intervention would send it up many hundreds of pips, but, where after that is anyone's guess.
  • #231,696
  • Sep 13, 2010 8:52pm Sep 13, 2010 8:52pm
Quoting honeybhi
IF the 4hr charts kick in ,then we can have a nice bull run.

But will $ retrace now ??.
what is your target for long i am also long again from here

Ub
  • #231,697
  • Sep 13, 2010 9:02pm Sep 13, 2010 9:02pm
Quoting Beljevina
That's the big question. I don't have a huge amount of confidence that the UJ low is in or that USDX is done. While GJ/GU has that bull run potential, it would take actual sterling demand/strength, and IMHO I don't think we have enough of that just yet, nor sentiment. But I could be wrong.

I also think that with UJ making those lower 15yr lows as it potentially heads to 79.75, there needs to be some form of either capitulation and then salvation of the US $ or some other sort of climactic, impacting and unanimously approving event to make the new...
78.6 is the level I will be watching for a real bounce on both USDX and GBPX.It may or may not make it there.
Just playing the pullback .More action left at the bottom I feel or things may turn from here.Trading as it comes .

UB ,Fudo answered you.Look up.
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  • #231,698
  • Sep 13, 2010 9:07pm Sep 13, 2010 9:07pm
Kiwi Daily looks like a shooting star at the upper resistance. May be a good short for 200+ pips
  • #231,699
  • Sep 13, 2010 9:13pm Sep 13, 2010 9:13pm
took partial here. let's see if she has steam for the DPP. Probably won't wait for DPP test. 1H descending TL MS1 129 area looks like a decent target.
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  • #231,700
  • Sep 13, 2010 9:33pm Sep 13, 2010 9:33pm
Quoting Scrat
support hit, should stop falling for now. tentative long with stops below 128. if goes below will reconsider.
Excellent call.

Am going to post this, based on personal experience in the hopes it helps others. It's not at all the only way to enter, but works well and consistently for me, on this type of PA.

As you watch the down move unfold, and if you don't have the guts to enter or have a buy already set at 128, there's still a conservative entry point, almost as good, in my example using fibs on a M1. It's of course important to confirm that the low is in, and have a M5 high volume bar being indicative of stopping volume. The first bounce off the bottom will be fairly big (to 128.37 in this case), and will then head back down to test on the M1. I fib from the low to that bounce high, and you will then find the 23.6% is almost always hit, and presents an excellent R-to-R ratio. That's the long entry point.

VSA and proper volume bar and spread reading I think dictates entry as shown with the other arrow; Malcolm and HiddenGap among others have done numerous and excellent repetitive examples on this - head over to Malcolm's thread and check history if you want the exact answer.

Having said all that, there's of course no guarantee that the long will hold - I usually book 10% or so on the first 30-50 pips, before the retest proceeds. I will note that this same type of PA played out on fat-finger May 6 somewhere before 2pm eastern, and then as the retest of the previous low was being made, it was like a tsunami that didn't head back up, and GY proceeded to drop another 700 or so pips pretty much straight down - that was probably the best example of a failed test of the low I have or will ever see, so, the SL is quite important!
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