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  • #181
  • Sep 13, 2010 5:41pm Sep 13, 2010 5:41pm
Quoting astral77
Hi

Does anyone know a good site / forum where a decent hedge strategy is discussed?

Kind regards
I found an interesting concept on the swb EA a while back. I can't recall what it was now, but something like go in 1/2 of your current lots and keep going in the direction you were going.

L4 you would enter 1/2 of existing lots and say for instance .03 lots but continue with your L4 order at .02 lots. Take a normal TP etc..

Blessings has hedging built in on the forex-tsd.com forum and they may have a technique, but all my backtesting does way worse with it enabled, so I never learned what they were doing.

I am just going to take the hits...

One thing I do is when I would normally exit my L1, I just hedge the = lots in the opposite direction. It is the same as closing it. Then, I wait till the indicators are aligned for a retracement and I will then remove that hedge when the market is moving back in my favor quickly. I will then put a buy/sell stop to do the hedge again if it reverses just below where I exited just in case. Then I walk away and see what has been done.

For example:

L1 close @ -500 pips (order was long .01)
enter H1 @ that same area (order is short .01)

Market continues down for another 100 pips (-600 pips L1, +100 pips H1) and is retracing quickly with MACD, BB's, STOCHs and the moons are aligned! Finally a retrace!!!! I then will exit my Hedge at say (H1 + 80 pips), then I will ReEnter My H1 trade of .01 lots just below the bottom on the pivot.

Now, hopefully if it is a pivot, I will win this battle! If not, I lose 20 pips on a .01 contract.

We are our own best indicator.
  • #182
  • Sep 13, 2010 6:03pm Sep 13, 2010 6:03pm
Quoting bluemele
That is good!

I don't know if I will get to it today, sorry. Seems like Life is too busy at the moment, but I should be able to get it tomorrow.

Did you try no visual? Which broker are you running this on BTW? IBFX? FXSOL?
blue,
I tried the no visual and it's still very slow and no trades using FX sol.
  • #183
  • Sep 13, 2010 6:29pm Sep 13, 2010 6:29pm
for any of you guys, who have tried 1 minute trend scalping (like me).... you'll get killed using bob's system. we all know why. if 50 ppl try it, 50 will get killed. if 100 people try it, 100 will get killed.

now, i know there are better trending scalping methodologies...

BUT, based on my initial statement, wouldn't using bob's charts to do 1 minute scalping, but in the direction of the trend therefore, actually work pretty well?

thoughts?
  • #184
  • Sep 13, 2010 6:36pm Sep 13, 2010 6:36pm
Quoting bluemele
I found an interesting concept on the swb EA a while back...Market continues down for another 100 pips (-600 pips L1, +100 pips H1) and is retracing quickly with MACD, BB's, STOCHs and the moons are aligned! Finally a retrace!!!! I then will exit my Hedge at say (H1 + 80 pips), then I will ReEnter My H1 trade of .01 lots just below the bottom on the pivot.

Now, hopefully if it is a pivot, I will win this battle! If not, I lose 20 pips on a .01 contract.

Thanks for that insight. At present the DD has become an obsession with me. I know BOB says it is part and parcel of the system and one has to accept it and work with it within the system. However, it seems a shame to me that some of our hard fought profits should be given back from time to time in this manner. It may well be the case anything else would decrease the profitability. Anyhow the choice is to HEDGE or RECOVERY or STOP LOSS. We should be all very grateful to some of you guys who are doing fantastic research into SL TP and it may be the case that some pairs can be traded profitably using straight SL method.

As you know and BOB has mentioned it numerous times, hedging is easy, it is the unhedging which causes the problem. I have been reading some material on hedging and what I have seen thus far does not offer a solution. The main decision would be when to hedge and when to do recovery trades. I am toying with a variation of Scoobs suggestion, whereby 200 EMA would be used to decide when to hedge and when to do recovery. We see if this idea has any merits.

Kind Regards
  • #185
  • Edited 7:23pm Sep 13, 2010 6:53pm | Edited 7:23pm
bob says you'll get killed when you trade in between the green lines. ofcourse...what is in the green lines, depends on the timeframe being used. so we have the 6th indicator.

with hardset tp/sl in place... in the opinion of you guys, would you say, that rwb bunched together, and touch of BB would be a good trade....if we do not consider it's position on the screen (i.e. disregards 6th indicator)

scrolling through all your currencies right now, only looking at rwb squeezed together at the top or bottom of the 85/15, in the last month, using 100/100, and disregarding 6th indicator, you can't tell me, that it doesn't look good. let's not even focus on the winning percentage here, as it's been way to high this month to be used as a barometer (looks to me to be over a 80% win rate) - keep in mind, we don't need a 70% or 80% win rate.... even if it's late 50% or optimally, 60%, that would be astronomical in terms of money

this is my take... it would be better to take 60 trades a month at 1 lot a piece and have a 60% win rate, then it would to take only 25 trades a month at 1 lot a piece at a 70% win rate. it goes back to a previous post where i used the casino example, where when you have an edge, the more you trade, the better. it wipes out margin of error. just like even if a casino had a mathematical win edge of 65% on a casino game, they need many many bets from people, for that edge to kick in, then they would win for sure. if they let some tycoon in to play only one hand, winner takes all for the same game, they may never see their edge be of any value, if they lose this one hand right here, right now to this guy, after all, he does still have a 35% winning chance...

i know the backtesting has been excellent, but at the end of the day, you have to wait longer for a trade setup, and when it shows itself, if you lose that trade, you have to wait some time for another set up. you may become impatient - which is very dangerous. if you lose 100. next trade is 5 days later, for some reason, you lose that also.... emotionally, your not going to like it.... you take more trades in a month, with a lower win rate.... you'll be more calm. yes, you'll have a lower winning percentage, but emotionally, you'll feel better.
  • #186
  • Sep 13, 2010 7:11pm Sep 13, 2010 7:11pm
Quoting chiba_san
bob says you'll get killed when you trade in between the green lines. ofcourse...what is in the green lines, depends on the timeframe being used. so we have the 6th indicator.

with hardset tp/sl in place... in the opinion of you guys, would you say, that rwb bunched together, and touch of BB would be a good trade....if we do not consider it's position on the screen (i.e. disregards 6th indicator)
No Sir, certainly NOT. I think it was Version 1 or Version 2 which was exactly this method and it was not good at all. Then version 3 and 4 BOB replaced th BB with 3 SMA cros and then 6x6 cross which was quite profitable. If I recall correctly BOB mentions this fact in his introduction for version 5.

Version 5 by far is the best and by far the most profitable so far. We are trying to see if we can trim the edges to make it even better.

Kind Regards
  • #187
  • Sep 13, 2010 7:24pm Sep 13, 2010 7:24pm
I have been getting killed on audusd on regular chart being short. But look at 50 pip renko . It has been long for long time. I think this is the advantage of Renko over time based charts IMHO.
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  • #188
  • Sep 13, 2010 7:24pm Sep 13, 2010 7:24pm
Quoting astral77
Thanks for that insight. At present the DD has become an obsession with me. I know BOB says it is part and parcel of the system and one has to accept it and work with it within the system. However, it seems a shame to me that some of our hard fought profits should be given back from time to time in this manner. It may well be the case anything else would decrease the profitability. Anyhow the choice is to HEDGE or RECOVERY or STOP LOSS. We should be all very grateful to some of you guys who are doing fantastic research into SL TP and it may be the...
astral,
You might try a series of small hedge trades if you see a good pinbar suggesting a continuance of the trend. If the trend is down , look for a good pinbar with a tail on top. Gain some pips along the way to help with the loss. Just a suggestion. I've been too chicken to try it. I'm always afraid of the reversal as soon as a hedge is put on which would be my luck. Also, hedging could lock you into a trade for awhile and you might be paying swap.
  • #189
  • Sep 13, 2010 7:37pm Sep 13, 2010 7:37pm
Quoting Toothman
astral,
You might try a series of small hedge trades if you see a good pinbar suggesting a continuance of the trend. If the trend is down , look for a good pinbar with a tail on top. Gain some pips along the way to help with the loss. Just a suggestion. I've been too chicken to try it. I'm always afraid of the reversal as soon as a hedge is put on which would be my luck. Also, hedging could lock you into a trade for awhile and you might be paying swap.
I have done a lot of the concept that I mentioned previously. It works very well about 50% of the time. The other 50% you wish you never heard the word hedge... haha...

I think I will just accept my 10% a month return and be happy with my < 10% drawdown... hehe...

Life is tough...
We are our own best indicator.
  • #190
  • Sep 13, 2010 7:39pm Sep 13, 2010 7:39pm
Quoting chiba_san
bob says you'll get killed when you trade in between the green lines. ofcourse...what is in the green lines, depends on the timeframe being used. so we have the 6th indicator.

with hardset tp/sl in place... in the opinion of you guys, would you say, that rwb bunched together, and touch of BB would be a good trade....if we do not consider it's position on the screen (i.e. disregards 6th indicator)

scrolling through all your currencies right now, only looking at rwb squeezed together at the top or bottom of the 85/15, in the last month, using...
Chiba,

I agree, I will try that when I adapt Steve's EA.

I don't know what was done before on the other EA, but you could probably dig those out of the 60x90 thread maybe?

I am super busy at the moment, so maybe by end of week we could have a functioning EA that is 'fast(er)' than Toothman reported.

If it is still slow, I will still run it overnight on several instances to see what happens...
We are our own best indicator.
  • #191
  • Sep 13, 2010 7:40pm Sep 13, 2010 7:40pm
Quoting Toothman
astral,
You might try a series of small hedge trades if you see a good pinbar suggesting a continuance of the trend. If the trend is down , look for a good pinbar with a tail on top. Gain some pips along the way to help with the loss. Just a suggestion. I've been too chicken to try it. I'm always afraid of the reversal as soon as a hedge is put on which would be my luck. Also, hedging could lock you into a trade for awhile and you might be paying swap.
It seems reversal after a hedge is endemic to most traders and that is why not many traders practice hedging. Some NB puritans may find the whole idea of hedge quite sacrilegious, but I think for the sake of the evolution of the system such alternative ideas should be tested. Small hedge trades after a good pinbar sounds a good idea. My problem is that my only nano account is with ibfx (which does not allow hedge) and the rest of my accounts are micro with .01 = 10 cents and I already trade this as my main trade unit with NB system.

Kind regards
  • #192
  • Sep 13, 2010 7:40pm Sep 13, 2010 7:40pm
Quoting Toothman
blue,
I tried the no visual and it's still very slow and no trades using FX sol.
Can you send me your .set file? Just change the extension to .txt and I will take a look also...

Thanks!
We are our own best indicator.
  • #193
  • Sep 13, 2010 7:51pm Sep 13, 2010 7:51pm
Quoting chiba_san
...scrolling through all your currencies right now, only looking at rwb squeezed together at the top or bottom of the 85/15, in the last month, using 100/100, and disregarding 6th indicator, you can't tell me, that it doesn't look good...just like even if a casino had a mathematical win edge of 65% on a casino game, they need many many bets from people, for that edge to kick in, then they would win for sure....
I see you have edited your post since my reply. I see your point with regard to casino model, as a person who spent a few years of their early twenties in the casinos I fully appreciate what you say. However, I have learned the hard way to respect and accept what BOB says. Bear in mind that when the sixths was not in use in the earlier version the win rate was quite low (I am not sure of the percentage but I guess less than 50%).

Kind regards
  • #194
  • Sep 13, 2010 7:59pm Sep 13, 2010 7:59pm
Quoting astral77
I see you have edited your post since my reply. I see your point with regard to casino model, as a person who spent a few years of their early twenties in the casinos I fully appreciate what you say. However, I have learned the hard way to respect and accept what BOB says. Bear in mind that when the sixths was not in use in the earlier version the win rate was quite low (I am not sure of the percentage but I guess less than 50%).

Kind regards
I can program that in pretty easily and it will be up to whomever to accept it or not..

I have a feeling it will be a much higher losing rate for sure...
We are our own best indicator.
  • #195
  • Sep 13, 2010 8:01pm Sep 13, 2010 8:01pm
Hey Guys,

Here is something that I have done w/ my NB 4H EA that worked exceptionally well.

1. Never buy into 2 highly correlated currencies (unless you don't realize)

2. When the first one is in bad drawdown, I would start up the EA to start on the 2nd correlated pair after say L2 or even L3...

For example:

this last little spin (I stupidly didn't pay attention), the AUDUSD was the currency to short. Then let it go to L2 then go short w/ the NZDUSD (if it is telling you too...) as well etc.. Or wait for L3 if you are cautious.

This has helped me immensely with drawdown and increased my profits some.

We are our own best indicator.
  • #196
  • Sep 13, 2010 8:12pm Sep 13, 2010 8:12pm
Quoting ES Trader
I have been getting killed on audusd on regular chart being short. But look at 50 pip renko . It has been long for long time. I think this is the advantage of Renko over time based charts IMHO.
wonder what the results would be if we used renko and the entry is rwb up/down the 85/15 and price at a bottom top bband entry would be opposite color candle

so if price has been up and is at top bband and rwb is over 85 enter on first red candle

hmmm i can only see small section of screen but maybe something to look at
  • #197
  • Sep 13, 2010 8:19pm Sep 13, 2010 8:19pm
you may be right sir... i'm very new to using bob's system. i took a usdchf, H4 trade. if you look at the charts, you can see where i took it. and why i took it. i was hoping for a 100 sl/tp. right now, it's up +143 @ 1 full lot. if it wants to reverse, so be it.

anyways, my point is, in this scenario, it worked. do you mean in your experience.... if i were to repeat this trade, that in 100 trades, i would not be able to win 50 of them? or that the result is unknown?

keep in mind, in a trade like, near the middle of the screen, i would not attempt any form of 2.4.2. i just looked at it, and it looked very good. it made me feel my win chance was high. like maybe almost 60%. the macd crossing up...blue and white starting to go down, all above 85... however, in the middle of the screen. if it didn't work out, i probably would have cut it at -80 or so pips. i would not have tried any form of recovery.

what are you thoughts?

Quoting astral77
I see you have edited your post since my reply. I see your point with regard to casino model, as a person who spent a few years of their early twenties in the casinos I fully appreciate what you say. However, I have learned the hard way to respect and accept what BOB says. Bear in mind that when the sixths was not in use in the earlier version the win rate was quite low (I am not sure of the percentage but I guess less than 50%).

Kind regards
  • #198
  • Sep 13, 2010 8:50pm Sep 13, 2010 8:50pm
ES or anyone who knows renko.

Ninja has range bars was wondering if this is the same as renko?
  • #199
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:57am Sep 14, 2010 12:57am
Quoting bpips
ES or anyone who knows renko.

Ninja has range bars was wondering if this is the same as renko?
Range is like this. range = 20 let's say...

Every time price moves 20, you get a new bar.

Renko works like this, lets say renko = 20...

Every time price moves divergent of the current price by 20 pips, you get a new bar....

So with range bars, you will get many bars within a 'range'. With Renko, you get one bar within that price range.

Hope that make sense. I love NT for backtesting! Especially NT7, but they don't do spreads so well....
We are our own best indicator.
  • #200
  • Sep 14, 2010 12:59am Sep 14, 2010 12:59am
Quoting chiba_san
you may be right sir... i'm very new to using bob's system. i took a usdchf, H4 trade. if you look at the charts, you can see where i took it....
I think you have to do what you feel is worth doing. Astral is stictly speaking that they have tried with little success and trying to give you a heads up on the low win rate...
We are our own best indicator.
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