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  • #21
  • Sep 5, 2010 1:34pm Sep 5, 2010 1:34pm
Quoting Xaron
Sure, you can contact me at [email protected]

Yes I use the stuff from NB, like first entry has a size of 1, second of 1.6 and third of 1.6x1.6.

This 30 bars thing from BWILC is one of the most common misunderstandings. Dirk actually never meant to use only the last month but you have to see the most important support/resistance stuff. It's not about timeframe it's about price levels. 300-400 pips grid size is currently to small. 800 pips should work better.

Regarding the Euro I'm totally amazed that we are...
Xaron, sent you a chat invite.
NB's entry size seem a bit odd - why 1, 1.6, 1.6* 1.6 - I will go through the thread to understand the thinking behind it.

My doubt was not abt the 30 bar rule, I have read your older posts on the topic. I also have the newer version 2010 of the book. In there Dirk has made it aptly clear 30 bar was not cast in stone.

Actually my doubt was:
Within 2 months ie from around 7th July to 5th August - EU rallied unrelenting 1500 pips. A huge movement for span of 2 months. What was your grid size then and now? How did you handle such volatility? I mean, 700-800 pips grid size was not enough for such a move.

Also, what news/blogs you follow?

I think the current retrace was just a temp move down. Just a prep for the next huge move up.
  • #22
  • Sep 13, 2010 1:13am Sep 13, 2010 1:13am
Quoting vicky_ag
Xaron, sent you a chat invite.
NB's entry size seem a bit odd - why 1, 1.6, 1.6* 1.6 - I will go through the thread to understand the thinking behind it.
Sorry for the late answer. I think any number will do.

Quote
My doubt was not abt the 30 bar rule, I have read your older posts on the topic. I also have the newer version 2010 of the book. In there Dirk has made it aptly clear 30 bar was not cast in stone.

Actually my doubt was:
Within 2 months ie from around 7th July to 5th August - EU rallied unrelenting 1500 pips. A huge movement for span of 2 months. What was your grid size then and now? How did you handle such volatility? I mean, 700-800 pips grid size was not enough for such a move.

The volatility is still huge, that's true. The time BWILC (1.0) was written the Euro had a typical daily average of 40 pips. At the moment we need a grid size of about 800 pips. Personally I don't use these quadrants.

Quote
Also, what news/blogs you follow?

Not so many. Just the Daily Pfennig and Dirk's own briefings in his forum which are quite excellent.

Quote
I think the current retrace was just a temp move down. Just a prep for the next huge move up.

Yep, I see it the same way. All this "Euro is going to zero" is just BS.
  • #23
  • Sep 13, 2010 1:29am Sep 13, 2010 1:29am
Week two is finished. I've stuck in a heavy EUR/AUD long position. Not a problem yet but on my watchlist.

http://www.fx-million.com/images/201...unt_130910.png

http://www.fx-million.com/images/201...ons_130910.png
  • #24
  • Sep 13, 2010 8:43am Sep 13, 2010 8:43am
Quoting Xaron
Sorry for the late answer.
No problem.


Quote
The volatility is still huge, that's true. The time BWILC (1.0) was written the Euro had a typical daily average of 40 pips. At the moment we need a grid size of about 800 pips. Personally I don't use these quadrants.

If not Quardrants how do you take the perspective of price being cheaper to buy and costly to sell ? I mean as per my understanding, Dirk has asked for the grid and the quadrants to help in the way of perspective.

Quote
Not so many. Just the Daily Pfennig and Dirk's own briefings in his forum which are quite excellent.

Daily pfenning is insightful. I got to know about it from a FX street's Seminar given by a German BWILC guy (was it you? )

Dont have access to Dirk's briefing's so have to scrounge few more sources.


Quote
Yep, I see it the same way. All this "Euro is going to zero" is just BS.

I have started my demo account on Oanda to trade the BWILC way.

Trades taken:

1. Short on UCAD (aided by the interest rate factor). Closed the trade at 1%.

2. EU long (given US not so exciting data ) at 1.27 , sitting on comfortable 1% . Hoping a move till 1.29

Looking forward to learning more from your BWILC style when you have some time.
  • #25
  • Sep 17, 2010 7:18am Sep 17, 2010 7:18am
Week 3 is over. Must have been my best week ever due to the BOJ intervention.
I'm flat now.

http://www.fx-million.com/images/201...t_170910_2.png
  • #26
  • Sep 17, 2010 1:29pm Sep 17, 2010 1:29pm
Well done, just keep from gearing up on the leverage this time and you'll do fine. I'd hate to see you giving it all back

GL
  • #27
  • Sep 27, 2010 5:26am Sep 27, 2010 5:26am
Hey Xaron

Watching your trading site and I wanted to show you a little something.

Are you aware that you tend to lower your leverage when right and push it over the limit when (potentially) wrong ? This is imho a (discipline) problem that a lot of traders have. It's common sense to do that, but it's not what's in your best interest...

Attached Image


Here's a picture of you doing this 3 times in the past month (the red lines).

To understand the image:

  1. Green line = Higher Nav AND higher leverage utilization - OK - Greed is good (especially when right )
  2. Green line = Lower Nav AND lower leverage utilization - OK - Risk reduction
  3. Red line = Lower Nav AND higher leverage utilization - Probably NOT OK !!! (Gambling mode activated ? )
  4. Blue line = Higher Nav And lower leverage utilization - OK - Probable profit taking


My point is that, if you continue doing that you will probably hit the wall at full speed, giving back most or all of your profits. I know that leverage is a problem that you already recognize as you write it today in your site:

Quote
My account took quite a hit as I was on the wrong side. This might be another warning to lower my leverage...

Enough for the moment but I really wanted to show you this potential destructive behavior (cranking up the leverage when nav is going down).

The good news is that you already know what should be done... it's up to you.

Have fun, and trade well.
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #28
  • Sep 27, 2010 5:40am Sep 27, 2010 5:40am
Quoting fxswing
Hey Xaron

Watching your trading site and I wanted to show you a little something.

Are you aware that you tend to lower your leverage when right and push it over the limit when (potentially) wrong ? This is imho a (discipline) problem that a lot of traders have. It's common sense to do that, but it's not what's in your best interest...

Attachment

Here's a picture of you doing this 3 times in the past month (the red lines).


To understand the image:[list][*]Green line = Higher Nav AND...
( FXSWING... CLEVER...)
A little beginner trader since 2006
  • #29
  • Sep 28, 2010 2:23am Sep 28, 2010 2:23am
Yep, you're right with that fxswing. I will pull down my overall leverage again and did so this morning. I plan to trade much lower the coming days/weeks/months...
  • #30
  • Sep 28, 2010 4:12am Sep 28, 2010 4:12am
Great Xaron.

Looks like you'll end September with a good chunk of profits

WTG
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #31
  • Oct 3, 2010 2:17pm Oct 3, 2010 2:17pm
Xaron, you dint answer to my post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...0&postcount=24

Busy with trading, i get it.

IMO, EU shorts will materialize next week. The markets are more focused on QE and how it will create a negative spread. But, I think next week we might see a downside...all owing to Greece's budget submission (blindly cutting spending on everything in sight) and EU eurozone report (as to how big a hole Ireland will prove). As Dirk says, look at what has changed? to change your outlook.
  • #32
  • Oct 4, 2010 2:20am Oct 4, 2010 2:20am
Quoting vicky_ag
Xaron, you dint answer to my post:

If not Quardrants how do you take the perspective of price being cheaper to buy and costly to sell ? I mean as per my understanding, Dirk has asked for the grid and the quadrants to help in the way of perspective.
Missed that one, sorry. I just use support/resistance stuff plus higher highs / higher lows for trend definition (in this case up trend) plus overbought/oversold scenarios.
  • #33
  • Oct 5, 2010 6:13am Oct 5, 2010 6:13am
This thread need some update
How did September ended finally ?

Cya
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #34
  • Last Post: Oct 6, 2010 4:03am Oct 6, 2010 4:03am
Finished it with about +25%. Had to close some Euro shorts and still have some to close.
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