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Silent Service Method

  • #10,681
  • Sep 10, 2010 8:05pm Sep 10, 2010 8:05pm
Quoting unlv_tj
I figured the average Joe consisted of such a small portion of the market, and many trades last for only seconds, that such legislation/economic turmoil would not really greatly effect the markets.
I was referring to people and their 401k's, etc. Most people are in bond funds at the moment. Truth be known, something like 80% of the volume at the NYSE is computer trading......not investors at all.
  • #10,682
  • Sep 10, 2010 9:26pm Sep 10, 2010 9:26pm
podcast uploaded on blog
  • #10,683
  • Sep 11, 2010 7:11am Sep 11, 2010 7:11am
Quoting clockwork71
I was referring to people and their 401k's, etc. Most people are in bond funds at the moment. Truth be known, something like 80% of the volume at the NYSE is computer trading......not investors at all.
May God help them Chris is all I can say.

Anyone late into the bond trade is going to get so comprehensively smoked it's incredible.

It is almost like the last bastion of "perceived" safety is about to be pulled from under the average Joe investor.

Maybe now people will start to realise that the only way to protect your assets is to get yourself educated and actually take some responsibility for them rather than blanket believing suits under large institutional banners promising "safe" returns.

I think we are going to see a pretty strong leg up into the coming months after the big guys shake out all the stops which appeared to happen into close on a couple of currencies - GBPUSD especially.

Goldman's top bullish call in gold that "possibly" prompted the sell off to the 1245 area is a good entry long up to the 1290-1300 region for a short.

I think S&P will slowly meander up to the 1200-1250 area giving us great short opportunities in AUDUSD around 9350-9450, GBPUSD between 1.57 and 1.59 and Euro back around 1.33 area (maybe even to 1.35 again).

Bonds are bayddddd, mmmmmkaaaayyy!
  • #10,684
  • Sep 11, 2010 10:33am Sep 11, 2010 10:33am
Quoting 4xAddict
May God help them Chris is all I can say.

Anyone late into the bond trade is going to get so comprehensively smoked it's incredible.

It is almost like the last bastion of "perceived" safety is about to be pulled from under the average Joe investor.

Maybe now people will start to realise that the only way to protect your assets is to get yourself educated and actually take some responsibility for them rather than blanket believing suits under large institutional banners promising "safe" returns.

I think we are going to see a pretty strong...

Yeah, I have to say bonds are getting pretty scary. Of course, they have been claiming a bubble in JGB's (Japan) for 20 years.....so you never know I suppose.
  • #10,685
  • Sep 12, 2010 7:16am Sep 12, 2010 7:16am
Low,

A question regarding the indi that you have running on many of your charts.

Is it a MACD Predictor or "DiNapoli MACD Predictor" of sorts.

I am testing a daily trend reversal method I have been working on and am looking for a macd predictor indo to test it against amongst others.

If it is do you know where I can get a copy of it if it is freeware?

Thanks

4x.
  • #10,686
  • Sep 12, 2010 3:28pm Sep 12, 2010 3:28pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Low,

A question regarding the indi that you have running on many of your charts.

You mean the squiggly?

Let's see if I can attach it......
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 trend.ex4   4 KB | 364 downloads
  • #10,687
  • Sep 12, 2010 4:50pm Sep 12, 2010 4:50pm
Anybody got any thoughts on the new Basel Regs?

Could they contribute to chronically lower volume?

Years ago I was reading about these regs, considered a major threat to the big boys, but as I went searching for more info, there was really very little aside from a few complex conclusions the Basel group were mulling over.

No info on implementation schedule either.

Then...Today, it's in the news?

All the world's bankers got together and adopted the big plan outlined by the BIS?

It just seems fishy to me. I got tired of trying to learn about when these new regs would be adopted and what they would mean 2 years ago.

Also the dismemberment of prop trading departments at major US institutions. Sure, the trades may go forward into hedge funds and the like, but they'll have a lot less capital to throw at the markets, essentially handicapping any capacity they used to have to really move price.

I agree with what Chris has said too about the "average investor" not wanting to play anymore, and it all just makes me wonder, especially in regards to the FX market....what will the future hold?

More Sunday Ramblings .....
  • #10,688
  • Sep 12, 2010 5:28pm Sep 12, 2010 5:28pm
Quoting Low
Anybody got any thoughts on the new Basel Regs?

Could they contribute to chronically lower volume?

Years ago I was reading about these regs, considered a major threat to the big boys, but as I went searching for more info, there was really very little aside from a few complex conclusions the Basel group were mulling over.

No info on implementation schedule either.

Then...Today, it's in the news?

All the world's bankers got together and adopted the big plan outlined by the BIS?

It just seems fishy to me. I got tired of trying to learn about...
Only time will tell, but we may be entering a new era. Much like after the blow up at the turn of the century when the regulators began to insist on 25k in your account to day trade. We adapted, but it isn't the same as it was then.....I assume.
  • #10,689
  • Sep 12, 2010 10:55pm Sep 12, 2010 10:55pm
Quoting Low
Anybody got any thoughts on the new Basel Regs?

Could they contribute to chronically lower volume?

Years ago I was reading about these regs, considered a major threat to the big boys, but as I went searching for more info, there was really very little aside from a few complex conclusions the Basel group were mulling over.

No info on implementation schedule either.

Then...Today, it's in the news?

All the world's bankers got together and adopted the big plan outlined by the BIS?

It just seems fishy to me. I got tired of trying to learn about...
I think the FX market will be replaced by the more regulated Futures market. Look at the volume on the Currency Futures, it keeps picking up. And now with the introduction of the mini currency futures, these instruments will become even more attractive to some forex traders.

Thanks my 2 pips.

Kulu
  • #10,690
  • Sep 13, 2010 5:07am Sep 13, 2010 5:07am
Quoting Low
Anybody got any thoughts on the new Basel Regs?

Could they contribute to chronically lower volume?

Years ago I was reading about these regs, considered a major threat to the big boys, but as I went searching for more info, there was really very little aside from a few complex conclusions the Basel group were mulling over.

No info on implementation schedule either.

Then...Today, it's in the news?

All the world's bankers got together and adopted the big plan outlined by the BIS?

It just seems fishy to me. I got tired of trying...
Hi Low,

Thanks for the indi.

Regarding the FX market, Kulu may be correct about everyone moving to trading futures however the issue remains that international trade cannot eventuate without the FX markets so there will always be a conduit for trading unless we all adopt SDR's or the Yuan as a global currency (sic).

The main risk that I foresee is how any changes to an exchange traded environment would impact the relevance of FX brokers as we know them.

There has been such a ridiculous boom in the number of brokers and there are such low barriers to entry that the market is genuinely saturated imho.

I have been thinking about the same issues for a while now and my expectation is that we see conditions steadily becoming more adverse for standard FX brokers and the attrition rate of them starting to markedly increase as volume disappears.

For this reason I am in the process of migrating my accounts across to a major government guaranteed bank to ensure that my money remains available to me. The likes of Citi, Deutsche, Saxo etc are too valuable in their own markets to be allowed to fold and for this reason I think this will provide the protection needed for retail investors.

Furthermore given their size I think an exchange traded format will mean pricing they can offer in the future will remain competitive. Sure they have been some of the slowest to market and in many cases lack impetus for innovation however they also don't sponsor F1 teams or Premier league football teams and splash around cash like it's 2007.

I notice that when you read the fine print on many of the brokers websites you see that their capital guarantees are not for 100% of your account capital but rather for fixed statutory values which scares the $hit out of me.

Mind you, I may have completely missed some key points that invalidate my view in this regard so please feel free to tear this perspective apart

Cheers.

4x.
  • #10,691
  • Sep 13, 2010 7:10am Sep 13, 2010 7:10am
I'm guessing the main site forex fantasie hosters are still playing funny buggers - I wanted to make a post - I can wait.
  • #10,692
  • Sep 13, 2010 7:53am Sep 13, 2010 7:53am
Quoting kulu
I think the FX market will be replaced by the more regulated Futures market. Look at the volume on the Currency Futures, it keeps picking up. And now with the introduction of the mini currency futures, these instruments will become even more attractive to some forex traders.

Thanks my 2 pips.

Kulu
Actually, I have to agree with this notion, as it only makes sense in the end. To be honest - it would solve a lot of issues.
  • #10,693
  • Sep 13, 2010 7:53am Sep 13, 2010 7:53am
Quoting VitaminBeer
I'm guessing the main site forex fantasie hosters are still playing funny buggers - I wanted to make a post - I can wait.
Yeah, it's a GoDaddy issue. I am really pissed off to say the least.
  • #10,694
  • Sep 13, 2010 7:58am Sep 13, 2010 7:58am
I am currently watching this pair....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud.png Size: 48 KB
  • #10,695
  • Sep 13, 2010 8:17am Sep 13, 2010 8:17am
You guys are thinking that the FX Markets might eventually get regulated enough to the point that it is no longer open to us small guys?

If this looks possible, I might need to pull my money out of Oanda.
  • #10,696
  • Sep 13, 2010 12:22pm Sep 13, 2010 12:22pm
Quoting unlv_tj
You guys are thinking that the FX Markets might eventually get regulated enough to the point that it is no longer open to us small guys?

If this looks possible, I might need to pull my money out of Oanda.
Mate, I think that box has been opened and they realise there are people queuing up with their hard earned to trade and pay spreads/commissions.

I am envisaging very little difference on the user experience side of things just the companies offering the broker services may look a lot different (more like banks )

Cheers.
  • #10,697
  • Sep 13, 2010 4:00pm Sep 13, 2010 4:00pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Hi Low,

Thanks for the indi.

Regarding the FX market, Kulu may be correct about everyone moving to trading futures however the issue remains that international trade cannot eventuate without the FX markets so there will always be a conduit for trading unless we all adopt SDR's or the Yuan as a global currency (sic).

The main risk that I foresee is how any changes to an exchange traded environment would impact the relevance of FX brokers as we know them.

There has been such a ridiculous boom in the number of brokers and there are such low...
Addict
Good points. I agree with you, we will always have the FX market. No doubt about that. However, the number of wholesale traders (speculators) will dwindle and leave the big boys that use the market for hedging and such.

But again, only time will tell.

Kulu
  • #10,698
  • Sep 13, 2010 5:12pm Sep 13, 2010 5:12pm
Quoting kulu
Addict
Good points. I agree with you, we will always have the FX market. No doubt about that. However, the number of wholesale traders (speculators) will dwindle and leave the big boys that use the market for hedging and such.

But again, only time will tell.

Kulu
This of course, would be the interbank market going back to what it started as......
  • #10,699
  • Sep 13, 2010 8:12pm Sep 13, 2010 8:12pm
The site is finally up.
  • #10,700
  • Sep 14, 2010 1:45am Sep 14, 2010 1:45am
Quoting clockwork71
The site is finally up.
GoDaddy is known to be unreliable. There are plenty of alternatives that are relatively reliable. Maybe not as cheap as GoDaddy but definetely not expensive.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
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