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No more BS - What have you learned?

  • #141
  • Sep 12, 2010 10:21am Sep 12, 2010 10:21am
Quoting Scottstone
I have no argument there, some people can use them, what I have learned though is that I can't.

I have programmed a lot of indicators in search of the one but I have come to the conclusion that there is no one and all they do for me is make me second guess what I actually believe will happen.
But you're assuming that an indicator can hold some type of answer and this I disbelieve to be true

Perhaps someone who uses indicators successfully simply looks at it a different way
Time hides Nothing
  • #142
  • Sep 12, 2010 10:39am Sep 12, 2010 10:39am
Quoting CindyXXXX
But you're assuming that an indicator can hold some type of answer and this I disbelieve to be true

Perhaps someone who uses indicators successfully simply looks at it a different way
Some people are better than I at filtering out all the false signals I guess.
  • #143
  • Sep 12, 2010 10:41am Sep 12, 2010 10:41am
Ya that is what I thought in the beginning but I no longer think that way.
  • #144
  • Sep 12, 2010 10:48am Sep 12, 2010 10:48am
Quoting Scottstone
Moving averages and every other bullshit indicator, all garbage.
It is amazing how different traders view the markets so differently. Moving averages are indispensable to me...yet other folks can go completely without them. For me, it would be like driving with a blindfold. On the other hand, there is the possibility that I could be more profitable if I got rid of them. One of these weeks, I will attempt to trade w/o them and see what type of results I get.
  • #145
  • Sep 12, 2010 10:55am Sep 12, 2010 10:55am
This is'nt some thing I learned, but rather have drawn a conclusion that to be successful, you need a combitation of 2 things. Time will prove if my conclusion is correct.

 

  1. Technical Analysis
  2. Fundamental Analysis

Relying solely on either will never work. Pure technical methods also will lead to failure although I do know 2 exceptions.

One of them trades index futures and his indicators are based on the movement of other major markets relative to his own. He is the exception rather than the norm.

The other also trades index futures, but scalps. His name is legendary in trading circles in my country.

You won't find them flogging courses on the net or the likes.

  • #146
  • Sep 12, 2010 11:00am Sep 12, 2010 11:00am
Ya i really shouldn't say indicators are all garbage because some people are successful with them, just not me.
  • #147
  • Sep 12, 2010 11:14am Sep 12, 2010 11:14am
Quoting Scottstone
Ya i really shouldn't say indicators are all garbage because some people are successful with them, just not me.
I would agree with you that most, if not all, indicators are garbage. But MAs have been around since the beginning of trading as we know and they have very enduring relationships and correlations with generations of traders. But, like I said, using moving averages may be placing limitations on me that I may not be aware of. This is why I would be open to the notion of going naked for 1 or 2 weeks.
  • #148
  • Sep 12, 2010 11:22am Sep 12, 2010 11:22am
Trade news on 1m,5min,15min,1hour.

it is the only way you can be sure you can make money easy.

no indicator that i have seen can say before hand say, this newsitem goes up or this news item goes down.

so just check for example www.forexfactory.com check what news is coming and trade on it.

most indicators go bad, because they can not calculate how big of an impact news will have. talking about 1m,5min,1hour.

only if your on the 4 hour or daily the news wont have much impact. since it is just a blimp. so then trend indicators have a better chance. since they wont react much on the impact of news.

just my 2 cents of experience.
  • #149
  • Sep 12, 2010 11:36am Sep 12, 2010 11:36am
Quoting nubcake
well in that case where it is given and not earned (ie don't actually know how to create that wealth myself and was simply handed it on a platter) then what i've learned about trading is that i should put the money in a savings account and let it grow that way and not flush it down the trading toilet which is what i, personally, would be doing if i put it in the market at this time.

hi, my name is nubcake, and i am unprofitable *sits down*
Nubcake,

If you're interested, I'd be willing to work with you to give you a different approach to trading/investing. Obviously, I do not know what approach you are currently using, however, judging by your level of frustration... I can sort of guess.

I'm not making you a promise that you will be profitable (because that ultimately depends on you), but I do promise that your rate of disatisfaction, frustration, and equity drainage will diminish.

Send me a PM if you're interested.
  • #150
  • Sep 12, 2010 12:16pm Sep 12, 2010 12:16pm
I've compiled my own statistical proof ( cause I'm a maths / stats man ) that MA are pretty damn good, perfect NO, but pretty damn good, ie check out M1 200ema, seems to hold for all TF's to interestingly, very good hit / reverse ratio.

I've tested pretty much all other indicators over the years and well there is not a 1 that isn't laughable, most look good after the fact but before no merit at all.

RSI's for instance, it's basically a % of where you are compared to the last low and high within your bars, so a reading of 100% isn't over bought and likely to come down, it's at previous highs or new highs and likely to keep gonig so shorting it is madness.

MACD I'll allow, as it's basically the difference between a SMA and a EMA
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #151
  • Edited 12:39pm Sep 12, 2010 12:19pm | Edited 12:39pm
KISS!

Keep It Simple Stupid! If it is not something obvious enough for almost everyone staring at the charts to see then it's not going to have much influence. As anyone reading posts from people who have been on the inside with the big dogs will know, the big dogs always just keep it simple. So by complicating things by looking for exotic patterns in the noise or whatever, we are only lowering our probability.

Oh....and:

While it may be true that 95-99% of Forex traders fail, 100% of Forex traders who never give up will succeed.
  • #152
  • Sep 12, 2010 1:09pm Sep 12, 2010 1:09pm
Quoting pip_daddy
KISS!

Keep It Simple Stupid! If it is not something obvious enough for almost everyone staring at the charts to see then it's not going to have much influence. As anyone reading posts from people who have been on the inside with the big dogs will know, the big dogs always just keep it simple. So by complicating things by looking for exotic patterns in the noise or whatever, we are only lowering our probability.

Oh....and:

While it may be true that 95-99% of Forex traders fail, 100% of Forex traders who never give up will succeed.
Well said pip_daddy.
  • #153
  • Sep 12, 2010 1:10pm Sep 12, 2010 1:10pm
Quoting pip_daddy
KISS!



While it may be true that 95-99% of Forex traders fail, 100% of Forex traders who never give up will succeed.

Yes and Yes if you live long enough
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #154
  • Sep 12, 2010 1:48pm Sep 12, 2010 1:48pm
Quoting pip_daddy
KISS!

Keep It Simple Stupid! If it is not something obvious enough for almost everyone staring at the charts to see then it's not going to have much influence. As anyone reading posts from people who have been on the inside with the big dogs will know, the big dogs always just keep it simple. So by complicating things by looking for exotic patterns in the noise or whatever, we are only lowering our probability.

Oh....and:

While it may be true that 95-99% of Forex traders fail, 100% of Forex traders who never give up will succeed.
The simple trades happen infrequently....but when you spot one, you have to give it all ya got. It's like the market is giving money away during those times.
  • #155
  • Sep 12, 2010 3:31pm Sep 12, 2010 3:31pm
Quoting Troikaone1
The simple trades happen infrequently....but when you spot one, you have to give it all ya got. It's like the market is giving money away during those times.
Excellent point. Sometimes as I'm watching...the Dow will start nosediving, and sure enough the euro/yen will make one of those fast 100 pip moves. I've seen it over and over and it's so obvious. I like to wait untill something significant is happening in the market. It could be a few minutes after a news announcement (when the knee jerk response has subsided and the true direction is revealed) or a major breakout of support and resistance. That's when I like to jump in and ride those momentum moves. The market has tipped it's hand..and you have to jump in and seize the opportunity. When there's little volatilaty or momentum, that's when you get suckered into moves that go no where. The key is to only trade when you see your edge appear and do nothing the rest of the time. Much easier said than done. Of course you have to know what your "edge" is to be able to wait for it.
  • #156
  • Sep 12, 2010 3:33pm Sep 12, 2010 3:33pm
Quoting Troikaone1
The simple trades happen infrequently....but when you spot one, you have to give it all ya got. It's like the market is giving money away during those times.

They should be all simple and sometimes they look simple but go the wrong way, so risking big can really hurt at times.

It's not poker, you don't set your risk bases on your hands strength.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #157
  • Sep 12, 2010 3:34pm Sep 12, 2010 3:34pm
Quoting Troikaone1
The simple trades happen infrequently....but when you spot one, you have to give it all ya got. It's like the market is giving money away during those times.
I didn't say simple trades. I said simple patterns. It's not the same thing IMHO.

A simple pattern is when you (or any child) can look at a chart and within maybe 10 seconds spot the patterns. So things like long term trend direction, strong S/R areas. That doesn't necessarily mean you know what the market is going to do next.
  • #158
  • Sep 12, 2010 3:38pm Sep 12, 2010 3:38pm
Quoting pip_daddy
I didn't say simple trades. I said simple patterns. It's not the same thing IMHO.
Uhhh.....OK!
  • #159
  • Sep 12, 2010 3:57pm Sep 12, 2010 3:57pm
1. Study how to manage a business before entering into trading business, it's absolutely no different.

2. A trader's edge is so small that he/she cannot afford deviating from planned trades to lose this edge.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #160
  • Sep 12, 2010 4:57pm Sep 12, 2010 4:57pm
That making a fortune scamming would be much easier than making a fortune trading. Too bad I have a conscience.
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