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Quoting bpips
I am also long and in recovery on au and euraud.

I am in same boat this is my first recovery set up other than these two I have been banking 50-100 pips on the set ups mainly the majors.

From what I see if you just wait for rwb and below or above the gold lines its hard not to get some profit...

The euraud trade I took with only white and blue below 15 which now is a lesson. Looks like now rwb below everything matches for a long...

So for myself if I can just learn some patience I will be filling my account with lots of pips....
Patience is my worst enemy in trading.

We are our own best indicator.
Quote
rwb and gold lines are not 100% safe since the trade I took met these conditions at 1.3733

There is no holy grail in trading : )
They're nearly 90 % safe....should be enough to trade profitable
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
Quoting Toothman
Ok,2009 had fewer trades (EUR/USD with the rules I posted earlier) but believe it or not didn't have one loosing trade. 14 wins . One standard lot per trade and that's $7000 for that year. I figure if leverage goes to 50:1 we could trade up to maybe 3 lots at a time and not risk a margin call since we would be using a stop loss.
2010 not so good. 2 wins 5 losses using 50/50. 5 wins 2 losses using 100/100
and if we did 100/100 on past years? i.e. the test you did for 100% win rate?
I went back to the beginning of 2009 and used the backtester to pinpoint the price that touches the BB or crosses back inside the BB and here are the results for EUR/USD. I didn't look at any bulge trades or secondary trades. There were 14 wins 10 losses using 50TP/50SL. There were 17 wins 6 losses using 100TP/100SL so chi's suggestion of using the 100/100 might be a much better choice of settings. I'll be using the tester to check 2008 again. A note on the tester. If you want to test a certain day for a Bol B. touch and you see that price may have touched the bands more than once that day, set the TP and SL to a low number like 10. This will let you pinpoint the touch you were after. Hope that makes sense.
Quoting chiba_san
and if we did 100/100 on past years? i.e. the test you did for 100% win rate?
Chi,
2009 alone using 100/100 was 12 wins 4 losses. This is all assuming no slippage but doubt if that would change these results much. The bottom line is trading the EUR/USD using 100TP/100SL(using EA's 1and2) with Bob's system looks so far like it would be profitable and would allow you to trade bigger lots since there would be no multi-level trades . Using the rest of the EA's may or may not increase profitability. You would have to test them.
Quoting Toothman
I went back to the beginning of 2009 and used the backtester to pinpoint the price that touches the BB or crosses back inside the BB and here are the results for EUR/USD. I didn't look at any bulge trades or secondary trades. There were 14 wins 10 losses using 50TP/50SL. There were 17 wins 6 losses using 100TP/100SL so chi's suggestion of using the 100/100 might be a much better choice of settings. I'll be using the tester to check 2008 again. A note on the tester. If you want to test a certain day for a Bol B. touch and you see that price may have...
Found one more positive trade in 2010 bringing the total for 2010 and 2009 to 15 wins 10 losses using 50/50 and 18 wins 6 losses using 100/100. There were a few other trades during those two years that didn't quite qualify (red was just off the extreme line) that would have been winners using 50/50 and 100/100.
thanks for your kind reply sir.

Quoting bluemele
I couldn't possibly answer that unless looking at a few things:

1. RWB lines. Where are they now in correlation. A lot of times when you entered they were great, now they are all bunched up at +80 pips and looking short (look at several instances of this on USDCHF over the last few weeks).

2. RWB lines on Daily and hourly. I switch timeframes briefly to see what they look like. If daily is at the bottom still and hourly is back at the bottom and 4HR is in the middle, I will stick with it baby! Believe it or not, these RWB's work great on 5M's...
Quoting Toothman
Found one more positive trade in 2010 bringing the total for 2010 and 2009 to 15 wins 10 losses using 50/50 and 18 wins 6 losses using 100/100. There were a few other trades during those two years that didn't quite qualify (red was just off the extreme line) that would have been winners using 50/50 and 100/100.
Thank you sir for that excellant peice of research. In your opinion can this be the case with how many other pairs?

I have had good week of trading the NB system with over 600 pips, however, I am expericning the same problem which seems to be endemic, i.e. entering too early. At present my DD is almost 4000 pips, although if I close everything today I will be back to middle of August. I am going to stick it out this week and may need to close couple of level 1 trades.

I am posting much in these days due to my recent obsession with RENKO bars (ES TRADER got me hooked). I have been doing a lot of reading and browsing different renko site and I love what I have seen. It goes nicely with NB system I know bluemelle trades some renko and maybe some of you should check it out here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=253545 .

If you are new to forex and or NB system then stay away from renko till you are comfortable with this system first.

Kind Regards
thanks for your work sir.

in regards to the euraud being the best trending currency, and that eurcad,eurnzd,eurchf,gbpnzd,gbpchf,gbpaud,gbp/cad, all are bad for this system.... should we still fear them if the tp/sl is 100?

what is your opinion?

in your tests, did BB crossbacks and touches consider sixths indicator?

i remember bob mentioned some currencies, the rwb never actually get to the extremes...does anyone remember which ones? thanks.

without testing, do u reckon other currencies will bring the similar results?

as i said before, even a 58% win rate, not always following the rules completely (macd or white line not quite there), and taking 55 trades through all currencies in a month @ 100/100... 0.5 lots, it's going to be a lot of money. if it's going to get to 60+% @ 1 full lot per.....it's going to be sick.

besides the gbpaud & gbpcad, bob never explicitly said any currency he does not recommend for this.

Quoting Toothman
Found one more positive trade in 2010 bringing the total for 2010 and 2009 to 15 wins 10 losses using 50/50 and 18 wins 6 losses using 100/100. There were a few other trades during those two years that didn't quite qualify (red was just off the extreme line) that would have been winners using 50/50 and 100/100.
sir......4000 dd.....that's......really a lot....



Quoting astral77
Thank you sir for that excellant peice of research. In your opinion can this be the case with how many other pairs?

I have had good week of trading the NB system with over 600 pips, however, I am expericning the same problem which seems to be endemic, i.e. entering too early. At present my DD is almost 4000 pips, although if I close everything today I will be back to middle of August. I am going to stick it out this week and may need to close couple of level 1 trades.

I am posting much in these days due to my recent obsession with RENKO bars...
Quoting chiba_san
sir......4000 dd.....that's......really a lot....
IT is and it is testimony to the fact that I have been a bit more stupid than usual. Every time we have a problem with a runner pair and manage to get a retracement I say to myself I will not repeat the same mistake again and go and do it again. I will close some traders this week if we do not get a good retracement on the AUD pairs. I have been reading your posts and it seems you are more sensible than me. However, my profits for the last few months and in particular August can more than offset shortfalls. We are due a retracement soon and I do not anticipate the DD to remain so high.

Kind Regards

P.S. I forgot, for anyone who is crazy enough to think 4000 pip DD is OK, they should bear in mind that I use the formula of 10 cent lots for every $2500 balance. At present I trade NB using 3 accounts with just over $2500 balance in each account. My DD is about $400 which I regard large but this represents around 6% of my balance. I do admire the research you are doing in collaboration with Toothman and Bluemele and hope it leads to improvement of the system. IMHO 242 or 1133 recovery is the main ingridient of the success of this system, however, having siad that if one is in a situation whereby 4 or 5 trades need recovery it may be a sensible option to close 3 or 4 and do the recovery on 1 trade rather than all of them. I hope you keep up the good work.
Quoting chiba_san
thanks for your work sir.

in regards to the euraud being the best trending currency, and that eurcad,eurnzd,eurchf,gbpnzd,gbpchf,gbpaud,gbp/cad, all are bad for this system.... should we still fear them if the tp/sl is 100?

what is your opinion?

in your tests, did BB crossbacks and touches consider sixths indicator?

i remember bob mentioned some currencies, the rwb never actually get to the extremes...does anyone remember which ones? thanks.

without testing, do u reckon other currencies will bring the similar results?

as i said before,...
Those pairs would probably work with a higher TP/SL except maybe the EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD. But I would have to back test to be sure.
In my tests I didn't consider any trade until price was to the gold line and at the same time RWB were at extremes(15/85),
I wouldn't use the USD/CAD as it goes on very long runs and Bob has warned about that one. Same thing with EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD as astral has warned. The pairs listed in Bob's daily recap as the slowest movers are going to be the pairs that have the most trouble reaching the RWB extreme. Those slower pairs would maybe be the ones I'd fudge a little on the entry rules. I'm going to test the majors first. USD/JPY will be next on the list. bpips is testing the GBP/USD. Testing is slow since you have to determine the price at the touch or crossover and you can't do it by eyeballing the chart since the Bol. bands and MA move with the price. I'm running each setup through the strategy tester to get the best estimate as to price where each trade initiates. I'll be using 100TP/100SL on EUR/USD for sure.
Quoting chiba_san
thanks for your work sir.

in regards to the euraud being the best trending currency, and that eurcad,eurnzd,eurchf,gbpnzd,gbpchf,gbpaud,gbp/cad, all are bad for this system.... should we still fear them if the tp/sl is 100?

what is your opinion?

in your tests, did BB crossbacks and touches consider sixths indicator?

i remember bob mentioned some currencies, the rwb never actually get to the extremes...does anyone remember which ones? thanks.

without testing, do u reckon other currencies will bring the similar results?

as...
Chiba San,

Nihau Ma! (sp?)

Anyways, I think you misunderstood me! My caution is strictly for new traders as well as telling you of the risks of those pairs.

If you are an experienced NB trader, then please ignore my comments and do what needs to be done. Bob warns occasionally on several currencies and shows us where and how the runs are. Bob has a LOT of experience. Bob doesn't enter too early as often, panic and exit too early from profit, etc... Bob has EXPERIENCE trading this system hence he created it!

I am trying to keep the newer traders into +pips, instead of walking away BE or worse. If you feel you need to trade those pairs, then I suggest you do! (I am just trying to help, if it hurts, please ignore my messages to anyone reading)

If you take caution (which is what I am saying) and evaluate those specific currencies more often then you would going blindly into them like you would EURGBP then I think you will do better.

Bob doesn't mention a lot of things every post that he takes into consideration on pairs. If you read his original 4.0 thread, you will see a lot of it! As a trader, even though he designed this system, it is not perfect and their are nuances to making it better! (Like Bob trades less volatile currencies with a higher proportion etc..)

I believe if you treat all pairs the same, you will end up cocky/lazy, and you will lose. I watched as Bob lost all the previous months profit May 5/6 and was put into a spin like so many swing traders. The key to me is to withstand those days and be on a constant watch for that possibility. I learned a lot watching Astral and a few other traders get hit by NZD pairs in April etc..

May 5/6 was the best learning in that no matter what system you have, it was a loser that day unless you were trend trading and you saw it!

If you can be on the watch for May 5/6 (when you are already at the bottom and possibly 2 levels deep, and it drops another 1000 pips on 10+ currencies) how will you behave? (If you have time, go through that day on a backtester, see what that does to your EQUITY or lack of!)

How will you Panic? Will you hedge, will you close out orders, will you stick to your plan, will you have enough money in your account to accommodate 10 currencies all going to Level 5 or 6!!! What will that do to your Psyche etc..

If you have those answers, then I believe you will be much more ready to trade this system for the long term.

I hope my comments help others. If they don't, please tell me and I will shut up! haha.. I enjoy helping others, but I also don't want to seem overconfident as every trade I take is cautious and I have 'concern' every single day with my DD and existing trades and I am new like everyone on this thread...
We are our own best indicator.
Quoting Toothman
Chi,
2009 alone using 100/100 was 12 wins 4 losses. This is all assuming no slippage but doubt if that would change these results much. The bottom line is trading the EUR/USD using 100TP/100SL(using EA's 1and2) with Bob's system looks so far like it would be profitable and would allow you to trade bigger lots since there would be no multi-level trades . Using the rest of the EA's may or may not increase profitability. You would have to test them.
Mart is building an automated system for the dashboard. The current tp/sl already works in the panel once order is executed and we should ask him to accommodate your rules possibly if you show him some of your backtesting. I think he might be interested in adding that as an option. I am sure he is quite busy, but his coding is the best I have seen on any forum to date!

We are our own best indicator.
Quoting Toothman
I went back to the beginning of 2009 and used the backtester to pinpoint the price that touches the BB or crosses back inside the BB and here are the results for EUR/USD. I didn't look at any bulge trades or secondary trades. There were 14 wins 10 losses using 50TP/50SL. There were 17 wins 6 losses using 100TP/100SL so chi's suggestion of using the 100/100 might be a much better choice of settings. I'll be using the tester to check 2008 again. A note on the tester. If you want to test a certain day for a Bol B. touch and you see that price may have...
Toothman,

How do you deal with if it hits the BB, bounces down, retraces higher and then goes outside the band for say 200 pips and comes back in and condition for #2 is hit and drops for 200 pips etc..?

That would be #1 Lost, #2 won?

I wonder if you changed to a 1:2 risk/reward ratio, whereas the stop is 50, profit is 100, or 100:200?

I noticed while I was doing well with the NB4, that I would hold a trade until it hit the opposite green/gold line for quite a few nice pips! Probably 3-400 pips run because it was coming from the top, but I was using 260 bar sixths, not 120....

Just an idea, but I think once an EA gets made, then you can just generally optmize for the past 10 years and go from there...
We are our own best indicator.
Still working on GU guys was out of town all day got nothing done but will finish up with 2009 tomorrow before football starts...
Quoting bluemele
Toothman,

How do you deal with if it hits the BB, bounces down, retraces higher and then goes outside the band for say 200 pips and comes back in and condition for #2 is hit and drops for 200 pips etc..?

That would be #1 Lost, #2 won?

I wonder if you changed to a 1:2 risk/reward ratio, whereas the stop is 50, profit is 100, or 100:200?

I noticed while I was doing well with the NB4, that I would hold a trade until it hit the opposite green/gold line for quite a few nice pips!...
In your example ,yes that would be loss on first trade, win on the second. I'd only enter the second trade if conditions were met again (past the 6th line and RWB at extreme). An EA would make the testing a lot easier and as you said settings could be optimized.
Quoting bpips
Still working on GU guys was out of town all day got nothing done but will finish up with 2009 tomorrow before football starts...
bpips,
I bet I know who your team is. I lived outside of Denver for a short time. What a beautiful part of the country. Hey, I wanted to ask you, are you running the strategy tester to test? You can't eyeball the chart since the Bol. band and MA move with the price.Some places where you think price touched the Bol. band, actually didn't touch in real time. And when you have a spot where you have multiple entries close together I set TP and SL(on the strategy tester) to a small number (like 10) so I can pinpoint the entry I want. Just trying to be on the same page. Oh and make sure you are advancing the chart to where it would be in real time before you look at the 6th line and RWB lines. Let me know if you have other ideas on this. thanks
Ok, I finished testing the EUR/USD back to the beginning of 2008. Only using EA1 and EA2 when price is at the 6th line and at the same time RWB are at extremes. This is using the back tester to pinpoint the price at entry. I'm advancing the chart to where it would be in real time before looking at price. Using 100TP/100SL. Best thing about this is you can trade a higher lot size not fearing a margin call since you're using a stop.

Results
2008- 19 wins 4 losses
2009-12 wins 4 losses
2010- 6 wins 2 losses

Total 37 wins 10 losses- That's $27,000 trading 1 full lot on the EUR/USD alone.
Do your own testing before jumping into this.
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