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  • #521
  • Sep 11, 2010 11:05am Sep 11, 2010 11:05am
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Just viewing the charts, and gold looks a bit top heavy there, though I'm a bit unsure re. Friday's daily candle i.e. might there be one last dash to test 1.265 or beyond, or is it downhill from here? If we breach 1.265 to the top then there's no precedent, at least on my chart, as to how far we'll go north before a fall. Interested in this obviously, as it might provide an opportunity for a good swing trade south, but, more importantly, I guess it would be helpful to be reminded of the correlation between gold and the dollar index, and whether this still stands true nowadays as we're seeing a decoupling of previously correlated pairs (at some point this month, we've had both the Swissy and Euro, plus cable and the loonie rising, which confused the living daylights out of me!

I'm watching 1.5330, and 1.5260 on cable for a break South or a break beyond 1.5440 going North. This is the week the big guns are meant to return in their droves to the market I take it (where did they go again?).

Whatever the case, it's about time we broke out of this 240 pip range we've done on cable for the past 4 weeks now.

Would be interesting to have your views on gold, though this isn't a gold thread (sorry, SM...!).

i
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  • #522
  • Sep 11, 2010 11:33am Sep 11, 2010 11:33am
Quoting IbkA
Just viewing the charts, and gold looks a bit top heavy there, though I'm a bit unsure re. Friday's daily candle i.e. might there be one last dash to test 1.265 or beyond, or is it downhill from here? If we breach 1.265 to the top then there's no precedent, at least on my chart, as to how far we'll go north before a fall. Interested in this obviously, as it might provide an opportunity for a good swing trade south, but, more importantly, I guess it would be helpful to be reminded of the correlation between gold and the dollar index, and whether...
Adverse markets in adverse times. Here is a great article that discusses the breakdown of the Gold/Dollar correlation that has occurred in recent times.

http://www.darwinsfinance.com/gold-dollar-correlation/

As a swing trader, there was a great opportunity to open a swing trade on gold on Wednesday which saw the recent high, but with India and China big on gold demand and with India's wedding season coming into swing, I cannot see it fall below $1,209.74 according to my chart as this is the bottom of a recent strong demand area. However I could be wrong

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...ow/6432468.cms

If it does break the highs, the best tool to estimate what new heights it will reach is the Fibonnaci Expansion tool, which is a useful tool to navigate unchartered waters in order to determine what price levels it could reach before it retraces back.

Personally, I do not trade commodities... Maybe one day in the future I might, but I don't know enough about the commodity markets, although they do seem interesting.

Cable is ranging and if it continues to range, I will be quite happy to short at the supply levels and long at the demand levels. A ranging/accumulation market can be quite profitable if one can identify these areas. Saying that, cable does seem ready to explode in either direction with all the MAs compressing on all of the timeframes.

I wish you success with your trading and that you have a great weekend!
  • #523
  • Sep 11, 2010 1:32pm Sep 11, 2010 1:32pm
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
I hear what you say, and that's why I'm a bit wary on the possibility of an extension of the recent high. I'll place an alert to view the PA at both $1.226 and $1.209, but it's still worth taking a short from $1.254.6 if we get there to $1.209 if we get there too.

I looked at gold last weekend, and put an alert on for 1.265, but it didn't quite get there on my charts; I'd also put a buy limit on the Swissy for 1.0060, and though the pair hit there (and beyond) on both my demo accounts, on my live broker account, it hit 1.0065 apparently, before turning north - because I wasn't around watching things at the time, I missed an opportunity to jump on board for that one.

On trading commodities, I've come to realise, a while ago, that the charts, patterns and candlesticks for commodities, currencies, futures, all the patterns look the same, and one can pretty well tell by looking at each chart what the pair is going to do, whether it's a commodity chart or currency chart.

Here's BP's chart, and I've highlighted the weekly candle for the week beginning the 11th of April. That week closed on Friday 16th April giving a reversal signal (for anyone who may have been lucky enough to have been watching this);then on April 20th (4 days later), the company suffered an oil spill which drove the value right down till of recent.

I'm with you on cable looking ready to explode, and as traders return from 'wherever they've been', this week, hopefully we'll start seeing some decent movement and get back to the normal range. Whichever direction we go, I pray we're all on the right side of the ride.

Good luck to you also, and have a great weekend with your family.

i



Quoting bbakker
Adverse markets in adverse times. Here is a great article that discusses the breakdown of the Gold/Dollar correlation that has occurred in recent times.

http://www.darwinsfinance.com/gold-dollar-correlation/

As a swing trader, there was a great opportunity to open a swing trade on gold on Wednesday which saw the recent high, but with India and China big on gold demand and with India's wedding season coming into swing, I cannot see it fall below $1,209.74 according to my chart as this is the bottom of a recent strong demand area. However...
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  • #524
  • Sep 11, 2010 2:24pm Sep 11, 2010 2:24pm
Color me wierd, but I have this thing about not shorting gold... I have a few positions long since about 1200 and 'may' cash them in if we get another surge this week. But I don't want to be short .. because just in case something wild happens & the internet goes down and dogs & cats start living together... when things stabilize again, my hunch would be that gold would soar during any sort of crisis. So if I do get out, I'll probably just wait for a retrace to load up again. Just me & my paranoia.

As to cable, if she keeps ranging it is almost idiot-proof to make one's daily pips .. but I agree somthin's gotta give & soon. SM thinks upwards, and gave some good reasons for it below, however my bias was down to 1.52-ish before up again .. but whichever way she goes I hope to be aboard & hanging on.

I've been tweaking some charts for past couple of weeks, trying to make everything as simple as possible. This is not rocket science, it just requires enough self-discipline to wait for .. and recognize .. the obvious.

Looking forward to interesting times ahead...


Quoting IbkA
I hear what you say, and that's why I'm a bit wary on the possibility of an extension of the recent high. I'll place an alert to view the PA at both $1.226 and $1.209, but it's still worth taking a short from $1.254.6 if we get there to $1.209 if we get there too.

I looked at gold last weekend, and put an alert on for 1.265, but it didn't quite get there on my charts; I'd also put a buy limit on the Swissy for 1.0060, and though the pair hit there (and beyond) on both my demo accounts, on my live broker account, it hit 1.0065 apparently, before...
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #525
  • Sep 11, 2010 2:52pm Sep 11, 2010 2:52pm
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
I'm not in a trade with it at the moment, and if I'd jumped in at 1200 I'd have been holding too for a possible breakout beyond 1.26, but, having viewed yours and Brian's posts, I'll set an alert for a retrace to 1.2205, i.e. open for 24/08 or 1.209, but will keep an eye on this pair over the next week or so to see where we're at.

Thanks for this, and I thought I'd heard it all till I read Brian's bit about the Indian wedding season affecting the price of gold, another nugget to add to my war treasures.

Have a great weekend!

i


Quoting 4xStar
Color me wierd, but I have this thing about not shorting gold... I have a few positions long since about 1200 and 'may' cash them in if we get another surge this week. But I don't want to be short .. because just in case something wild happens & the internet goes down and dogs & cats start living together... when things stabilize again, my hunch would be that gold would soar during any sort of crisis. So if I do get out, I'll probably just wait for a retrace to load up again. Just me & my paranoia.

As to cable, if she keeps ranging it is almost...
  • #526
  • Sep 11, 2010 4:01pm Sep 11, 2010 4:01pm
Quoting IbkA
I'm not in a trade with it at the moment, and if I'd jumped in at 1200 I'd have been holding too for a possible breakout beyond 1.26, but, having viewed yours and Brian's posts, I'll set an alert for a retrace to 1.2205, i.e. open for 24/08 or 1.209, but will keep an eye on this pair over the next week or so to see where we're at.

Thanks for this, and I thought I'd heard it all till I read Brian's bit about the Indian wedding season affecting the price of gold, another nugget to add to my war treasures.

Have a great weekend!

i
I don't trade gold, but like you said to me, the analysis stays the same whichever instrument you trade in, whether it be commodities, equities, currencies or even gilts/bonds. I have a little understanding of commodities such as gold and oil, but certainly not corn, wheat or any other commodity as each instument has its own idiosyncrasies.

I did some demand/supply analysis of gold on the h4 timeframe below -

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Obviously at these higher timeframes any positions would be considered as swing positions and I have marked off the zones above price (supply) and below price (demand). The black lines are more of a confirmation zone as there is too much basing for my liking that occurred around the end of August before the jump up in price. Hence I pointed out to you earlier the lower zone around 1210 where price reacted violently. You do get some sharp moves in gold in both directions and I wonder if there are any cyclical patterns in there that you get with a lot of other commodities. To conclude, it won't be an instrument I will be trading anytime soon, so I won't be analysing it in much detail. I do have the daily chart in my market overview screen just to keep an eye on it.

If through my analysis I think price has a good chance of turning but it has not reached my supply/demand zone, I will create 3 pending orders with my SL and TPs already defined in them, the so called 'set and forget'. Therefore if I am at work or if my PC breaks down, I know that my trade can be filled and TPs taken without me having to lift a finger again. Generally on my third pending order I will not have a TP as I tend to do a trailing stop on it.

Good luck with your trading in gold!
  • #527
  • Sep 12, 2010 3:13pm Sep 12, 2010 3:13pm
Hi All,

Just got back from a weekend on an island, and very nice it was.

I have made reference to gold on several occasions, but still hold the general opinion as contained within the following submission.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=150
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #528
  • Sep 12, 2010 3:34pm Sep 12, 2010 3:34pm
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Hiya!

You're a brilliant writer you are (beside the increasingly frequent references to your trips abroad... I do envy you!).

I've just read through your link on your previous post enclosed, and all I can say is I'm watching and waiting patiently, the stuff has to peak somewhere, and I won't rush in and do something with a commodity I've never traded before.

Off to get a good night's rest, and won't touch the keyboards till after 10am tomorrow. For some reason, Monday morning LO fakeouts have always been my nemesis so I'm now learning to stay away from my screen till the dust has settled.

Good luck to you all this week, and I hope the market does wake up this week so Stocky, Sinner and you regulars can return to posting. It's always interesting to read 'considered' discussions on the market rather than calls.

i

Quoting 45Condor
Hi All,

Just got back from a weekend on an island, and very nice it was.

I have made reference to gold on several occasions, but still hold the general opinion as contained within the following submission.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=150
  • #529
  • Sep 12, 2010 4:25pm Sep 12, 2010 4:25pm
Quoting 45Condor
Hi All,

Just got back from a weekend on an island, and very nice it was.

I have made reference to gold on several occasions, but still hold the general opinion as contained within the following submission.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=150
Ah Condor, finally a proper analysis of the gold situation, thank you for that.
Especially the last sentence.
There are still a lot of kool-aid drinkers out there who cannot or will not see what is plainly in front of them.
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #530
  • Sep 12, 2010 4:53pm Sep 12, 2010 4:53pm
Quoting 45Condor
Hi All,

Just got back from a weekend on an island, and very nice it was.

I have made reference to gold on several occasions, but still hold the general opinion as contained within the following submission.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=150
Good post. Gold might be bullish in the long term though, this recent rush might turn out to be little than a bubble. With current fiscal and monetary policies, I doubt the world would descend into a state of such total chaos that gold would be 'used' as the real currency. There will be flight to safety, surely. But once some policies are imposed and things calm down a bit, gold is all but a measure of confidence (or diffidence). It can't be used, easily exchanged, or have anything like plants or vegetabl grown on it. And if the world would turn into such a mess with gold as the only thing of value, there is always the precedence of gold confiscation in the 1930s as another thought.

On Chinese private citizens buying gold, I don't think most of that is a matter of profit-driven short-term speculation. In Chinese culture there has always been a tradition of families holding small amount of gold as 'family silver' or people/companies giving gold-made jewelries or little handcrafted thingy as precious private or commercial gifts on certain occasions. When they make more money, they may buy a bit more than before. But in investment terms, the Chinese are thinking that gold is a bit too pricey at the moment.
  • #531
  • Sep 12, 2010 8:58pm Sep 12, 2010 8:58pm
Hey guys,

Sorry I haven't posted recently, a friend committed suicide a couple of weeks ago I was having trouble dealing with it and then late last week found out a very close friend of mine died.

Hadn't really even remembered to look at a price chart until received a message from a trader asking me how one of my options trades was going. Went home from work after an hour and cried the whole way home.

For me the same parameters still seem to stand, the trader in me is happy to short intraday reversals below 1.538 and start looking for longs if we can close a NY session above 1.572.

Regarding the DX, seems a range did eventuate, but at a higher level than I originally anticipated. Parameters shown below. It's looking obvious on the DX, there is the gap up off 82 (bullish abandoned baby?) with RSI above 50, could be a nice mom trade to take a dollar long at 83.6 or enter on a bullish close outside of the range and conversely look to re-enter dollar downtrend on a close bearish outside the range (which is supported by the RSI around the DX=80 level showed weakness).
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  • #532
  • Sep 12, 2010 11:08pm Sep 12, 2010 11:08pm
I'm so sorry to hear of the loss of your friends .. you have really had a tough time of it lately. Hope you can find comfort & peace. Thanks for your analysis.

-star

Quoting sinner-
Hey guys,

Sorry I haven't posted recently, a friend committed suicide a couple of weeks ago I was having trouble dealing with it and then late last week found out a very close friend of mine died.

Hadn't really even remembered to look at a price chart until received a message from a trader asking me how one of my options trades was going. Went home from work after an hour and cried the whole way home.

For me the same parameters still seem to stand, the trader in me is happy to short intraday reversals below 1.538 and start looking for longs...
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #533
  • Sep 13, 2010 3:25am Sep 13, 2010 3:25am
I find my head sore this morning as I think of what to pen. I’m guessing my financial masters have sore heads, too, from the shindig over in Basel this weekend, and will now be downing Alka-Seltzer as the captain of the Gulfstream jet levels out at 35000 feet.

So, stricter capital requirements are to be put in place for banks, and for which those on the ground will now be busy scurrying to prepare for. Well, some, as it seems others knew of the outcome from this weekend, and began their preparations early… Deutsche Bank announcing a rights issue for this week according the FT and WSJ. Content copyrighted, so link to it via:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...716778,00.html

I then learn of the purchase of Greek debt by Norway; another anomaly in investment strategy if the collapse of the Euro is imminent – I have questioned the rationale of the Chinese purchase recently – and one gets the feeling that the speculation of CB coordination/manipulation may have some grounding to it. I have searched high and low for public explanation, and could cite many a commentator upon these purchases. However, it’s all confusion and contradiction: suffice it to say, I smell something rather anti-free market – a subject upon which I would like to pen something, but not until the rendering upon my wall is complete.

Unlike the Basel III redefinition of the rules for the rich and the poor, which is purported to have a journey time ending sometime 2015 to 2018, I’m hoping to have the redefinition of my wall completed within the next few weeks.

Previous EU short stopped out... I must stop trading this instrument.

In the meantime, I wish green pips for all.

Sinner, sorry to learn of the bad news.
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  • #534
  • Sep 13, 2010 3:51am Sep 13, 2010 3:51am
Quoting sinner-
Hey guys,

Sorry I haven't posted recently, a friend committed suicide a couple of weeks ago I was having trouble dealing with it and then late last week found out a very close friend of mine died.

Hadn't really even remembered to look at a price chart until received a message from a trader asking me how one of my options trades was going. Went home from work after an hour and cried the whole way home.

For me the same parameters still seem to stand, the trader in me is happy to short intraday reversals below 1.538 and start looking for longs...
Hi Sinner,

Very sorry to hear about the loss of your friends....you have have my condolences.

Stocky
  • #535
  • Sep 13, 2010 4:33am Sep 13, 2010 4:33am
Fridays COT data shows

Insitutional Players:

Long: 64%
Short: 36%

Retail Players:

Long: 43%
Short: 57%

Figures show the insitutional guy have a clear stronger bias switch to long compared to the previous 3 reports as they were in the 50:50 ball park area.

Retails figures above are not as important as most retail trade is done via spot fx not the futures exchange but as usual they are on the opposite side of the fence.

These figure do not predict price movement but are more to give an idea of what the insitutional guys bias is. Given the data issued on the friday is from the previous tuesday it is slightly lagging and this should be taken into account when including it in your trade plan.

Stocky
  • #536
  • Sep 13, 2010 4:53am Sep 13, 2010 4:53am
Quoting sinner-
Hey guys,

Sorry I haven't posted recently, a friend committed suicide a couple of weeks ago I was having trouble dealing with it and then late last week found out a very close friend of mine died.

Hadn't really even remembered to look at a price chart until received a message from a trader asking me how one of my options trades was going. Went home from work after an hour and cried the whole way home.

For me the same parameters still seem to stand, the trader in me is happy to short intraday reversals below 1.538 and start looking for longs if...
I'm very sorry to hear of the terrible news, Sinner. Although we've never "spoken" on this thread, I always check in regularly to read the analysis and thoughts of yourself and the other regulars.

Give yourself plenty of time to deal with, and absorb, the enormity of the situation. As you know, it will take time.

Wishing you the best, Paul
  • #537
  • Sep 13, 2010 9:41am Sep 13, 2010 9:41am
Quoting Stocky Monk
Aussie Dollar chart.

Not a pair I trade often but a buy order I had set since the 2nd Aug at 0.8864 was triggered yesterday and TP was hit 0.9001 today. Didnt expect it bounce straight of 8864 but thats how it is sometimes...nice... Im waiting for a pullback to 0.9001 for re-entry with targets of 9184 and 9380.

Thought it might be of interest for those who fancy a change in pairs occasionally.

Stocky
Follow up on a Aussie Dollar trade I posted in August. Last target of 9380 nearly hit...This is to highlight the level we are apporaching...9406/9380 high since november 2009, Major resistance level. I expect us to perform a decent bounce lower of this level once we have accumulated as we have rallied nearly 600pips on the daily without a proper retrace. We will probably attempt a retest of 9400 area after a initial bounce. If we break through then that opens the way to 9800 area the high from july 2008.

Stocky
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  • #538
  • Sep 13, 2010 10:31am Sep 13, 2010 10:31am
Hmm...
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  • #539
  • Sep 13, 2010 11:13am Sep 13, 2010 11:13am
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Hi Buddy,

So sorry to hear about these losses, and I pray both you, and the families concerned, find comfort in the memories of the good times you had with these 2 friends.

Do look after yourself, and our thoughts and prayers are with you.

i

Quoting sinner-
Hey guys,

Sorry I haven't posted recently, a friend committed suicide a couple of weeks ago I was having trouble dealing with it and then late last week found out a very close friend of mine died.

Hadn't really even remembered to look at a price chart until received a message from a trader asking me how one of my options trades was going. Went home from work after an hour and cried the whole way home.

For me the same parameters still seem to stand, the trader in me is happy to short intraday reversals below 1.538 and start looking for longs...
  • #540
  • Sep 14, 2010 1:58am Sep 14, 2010 1:58am
One for Smikester... interesting little punch up to the standard green 76.4 fib.
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