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vsa with Malcolm

  • #3,701
  • Sep 11, 2010 3:34am Sep 11, 2010 3:34am
My 7th VSA Trade (Live).

Executed Order.
EUR/USD - Short
Date: 10-Sep-10
Time: FxPro 15:30
Entry: 1.2693
SL: 1.2733 (-40 pips)
TP: 1.2593 (+40 pips)

Reasons:
Note the Red vertical line, the bar after this line is my signal bar.
After Buyer Climax,
Upthrust,
Then One Wide Down bar with Increase Volume showing Weakness.
Hull Red on M15 and M30.
Hull Green on H1.
Sell on break Low of Price Down Bar (One Wide Down Bar).
** The last 2 losing trades entered like Short on an Up Bar. This trade
decided to enter Short on a Down Bar with Increased Volume instead.

Attached:
M15
Entry (small Yellow horizontal line),
SL (small Red horizontal line),
TP (small Green horizontal line).

I will inform of exit result no matter it is profit or loss.

Final Result.
The above order hit 1.2733 (-40 pips).

** Please comment on analysis.

Please comment on Why Not to Enter ??

After the Short Entry, I watch prices moving slowly up(Eclipse area), and also it was accompanied by Volume that is Decreasing (Rectangle area), so thought it will not hit SL.
Then Wham, hit SL with another UpThrust.

Here perhaps my SL not large enough as my SL 1.2733 was not higher than previous swing High at recent UpThrust 1.2746 (this plus a few pips would NOT been hit) ???

Thanks,
FB.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,702
  • Sep 11, 2010 7:02am Sep 11, 2010 7:02am
Quoting foxybunny
My 7th VSA Trade (Live).

Executed Order.
EUR/USD - Short
Date: 10-Sep-10
Time: FxPro 15:30
Entry: 1.2693
SL: 1.2733 (-40 pips)
TP: 1.2593 (+40 pips)

Reasons:
Note the Red vertical line, the bar after this line is my signal bar.
After Buyer Climax,
Upthrust,
Then One Wide Down bar with Increase Volume showing Weakness.
Hull Red on M15 and M30.
Hull Green on H1.
Sell on break Low of Price Down Bar (One Wide Down Bar).
** The last 2 losing trades entered like Short on an Up Bar. This trade
decided to enter Short on a Down Bar with Increased...
Hi foxy,

Your volumes are VERY difficult to marry up with the correct price candle. Would you explore some way of posting bigger/better def charts please.

Cheers
  • #3,703
  • Sep 11, 2010 8:28am Sep 11, 2010 8:28am
Quoting foxybunny
My 7th VSA Trade (Live).

Executed Order.
EUR/USD - Short
Date: 10-Sep-10
Time: FxPro 15:30
Entry: 1.2693
SL: 1.2733 (-40 pips)
TP: 1.2593 (+40 pips)

Reasons:
Note the Red vertical line, the bar after this line is my signal bar.
After Buyer Climax,
Upthrust,
Then One Wide Down bar with Increase Volume showing Weakness.
Hull Red on M15 and M30.
Hull Green on H1.
Sell on break Low of Price Down Bar (One Wide Down Bar).
** The last 2 losing trades entered like Short on an Up Bar. This trade
decided to enter Short on a Down Bar with Increased...

Ok foxy, I dont want to sound patronising but, there isn't much right with this trade.
Check out the chart below and follow what I see.

A - Very wide spread up bar on high but not highest volume, closing near the high. This pushes through a previously respected resistance area. We dont yet know the sentiment of this bar.

B - An up bar with a narrower spread on increasing high volume closing at the high. This bar has a long lower shadow indicating tha the previous bar contained some selling. But it closes on the high so we're still unsure if it's profit taking or absorbtion.

C - Down bar closing near the low on decreased volume making a new recent high. This is our 1st clue that the previous bars contain selling. It's also an UT.

D - Up bar on increased volume. This shows us that demand is still present here.

E - UT on high volume. This is what we've been waiting for, conformation that the market is weak. We need conformation of this UT to be sure tho.

F - Up bar closing in the middle on volume less than the previous 2 bars. If the spread was a bit narrower, this would be a classic ND. Beware, this bar breaks the high of the UT by a pip. This is quite rare in a weak market and generally signals higher prices to come. An aggressive entry is short on the break of the low of this bar with SL set at a couple of pips above the swing high, I would not trade this.

G - Up bar closing on the high on very low volume, No buying pressure after a down move. This is tradeable at the close of the bar. I would have entered here with a SL set at a couple of pips above the swing high.

H - Up bar closing in the middle on increased volume. Selling re-enters.

I - Down bar closing on the low on increased volume making a new very recent high. Another UT testing the high volume area at the top of the swing. Note the volume is far less than the swing high volumes. Nothing but sellers here.

J - Up bar closing on the high on low volume, no buying pressure. Short entry on close of this bar or safer at the break of the low.

K - Wide spread down bar closing off the low on high volume. This is the move we were waiting for but beware. This type of bar indicates it could contain buying.

L - Wide spread down bar closing well off the low on ultra high volume. Alarm bells ring now. This bar probably contains buyers and lots of um. Very safe exit here.

L+1 - (forgot to mark it) Up bar closing near the high on reduced but still high volume. This bar confirms the buying contained in the previous bar. Exit here.

You made the mistake of entering after the move has taken place. VSA tells us that this is the bottom or at least close to it. This is a common mistake made by non VSA speaking traders and VSA learners. I wouldn't worry about it as long as you learn from it. I have some advice for you

1. Re-read MTM, slowly. Make sure you know what EVERY bar means when you see it. Test yourself on this or better still, get some one else to test you.

2. Never ever ever ever ever ever enter short again after seeing 2 bars like those. You will need to see conformation that the down move is going to continue.

I have added M, N, O and P just so you can see the cycle starting again.

I hope this helps foxy
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  • #3,704
  • Sep 11, 2010 8:56am Sep 11, 2010 8:56am
GU was odd . The bottom that formed should have been enough to take it up 100 pip or so , but every move up was being sold into . A hulls on a 15 min chart was red all the way form middle of london and sometimes using hulls like this can keep you out of a bad set up

Quoting Jasus
Today I went long on GU but failed miserably...

On the 30m I see buying when the market is reluctant to go down after that climatic down bar, and then I see stopping volume and a shakeout.

However the market is still making new lows, so I don't know if I should even consider entering... Then I wanted to know if I should have exited on that 2 no demand bars on the 5m? A higher low was already made here, and there was stopping volume, so I thought these no demands were just to accumulate more on the way down...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #3,705
  • Sep 11, 2010 9:18am Sep 11, 2010 9:18am
Quoting Intel
Ok foxy, I dont want to sound patronising but, there isn't much right with this trade.
Check out the chart below and follow what I see.

A - Very wide spread up bar on high but not highest volume, closing near the high. This pushes through a previously respected resistance area. We dont yet know the sentiment of this bar.

B - An up bar with a narrower spread on increasing high volume closing at the high. This bar has a long lower shadow indicating tha the previous bar contained some selling. But it closes on the high so we're still unsure if...


Hi Intel,

Much appreciated. Yes certainly helps.

The volume on my FxPro Demo charts does differ from what you have.


Quoting Intel
K - Wide spread down bar closing off the low on high volume. This is the move we were waiting for but beware. This type of bar indicates it could contain buying.

L - Wide spread down bar closing well off the low on ultra high volume. Alarm bells ring now. This bar probably contains buyers and lots of um. Very safe exit here.

L+1 - (forgot to mark it) Up bar closing near the high on reduced but still high volume. This bar confirms the buying contained in the previous bar. Exit here.
I did Not enter Short at the earlier bar than bar-K as waiting for Hull to confirm Red.
Bar-K was my first bar where Hull turned Red.

I set my order at the low of bar-K.
I thought this bar with the wide spread Down and High Vol is Confirming the Down Move.
I been waiting for this move.

How to tell that bar-K indicate it may contain Buying ??


Quoting Intel
You made the mistake of entering after the move has taken place. VSA tells us that this is the bottom or at least close to it. This is a common mistake made by non VSA speaking traders and VSA learners. I wouldn't worry about it as long as you learn from it. I have some advice for you
Yes, it seem I often do get hold of Entry at Stopping Volume or Buyer Climax!!


Quoting Intel
1. Re-read MTM, slowly. Make sure you know what EVERY bar means when you see it. Test yourself on this or better still, get some one else to test you.

2. Never ever ever ever ever ever enter short again after seeing 2 bars like those. You will need to see conformation that the down move is going to continue.
Need more training to see 2 bars like that. Sometimes already Entered before seeing these 2 bars.

Your point 2., as previous it seem I enter at the bar-1, then bar-2 have reversed!
So perhaps need to wait for another confirmation, yet don't want to wait so long after Hull turn Red.
Here is a balancing act.

OK will re-read MTM slowly again.

No one to test me.
That is why I like your Q&A!

Cheers,
FB.
  • #3,706
  • Sep 11, 2010 9:25am Sep 11, 2010 9:25am
Quoting Jasus
If you have a look at what tradeguider program has you'll see it has a trend confirmation system (trend diamonds), a volatility-based stop loss and resistance levels. These are used by VSAers... Hulls, chandelier and pivot lines are doing that work. I'm not "re-inventing" anything here or changing what Tom Williams teaches, I'm using indicators malcom posted and that are equivalent to those of tradeguider's program.

true gavin himself uses trend diamonds in his trading

my charts are a train wreck then ...lol...

to many lines on my chart and prior days value area (blue lines)of no use at all ...lol...we failed at upper value area 1,2730 came all way down to sto exactly at prior days value area low....

the fact that we had a wonderful upthrust style bar at value area high was awesome. I close the long I had on eu at exactly 1,2740. (only a 25 pip trade but better than kick in rear end) due to that level being old highs and upper value area and saw the ultra high volume coming in. I did not really get market action on friday so that was my only trade on fx in us session

es was fairly straight forward to trade on a 15 min chart using vsa on friday

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #3,707
  • Sep 11, 2010 9:30am Sep 11, 2010 9:30am
I am not a fan of channels and sloped tl to be honest ,,, as they do not truely show the areas of supply and demand. I have seen some trades with really obscure tl joining any 2 points just to justify the trades

so that being said what do i use ?

simple high vol pivots , and s/r horizontal lines

eu was a simple channel all week...1.275o to 1.2670

if you really have time to trade 8 to 12 hrs then you must be full time. Full time traders can milk these channels like a cash cow once you spot they are there

Hidden gap is very good at picking up these channels early .

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Quoting foxybunny
Hi Malcolm,

Your picture really help explain. Thanks.

It seem that I am either entering on trigger of a Stopping Volume or Buying Climax.
Of course I am not realising this at the time of entry.
Normally I look for Better Volume with colour that is Red or White/Black to give me the hint of Buying Climax and Stopping Volume.
Perhaps relying too much on the colour.

How can I spot better on these Buying Climax and Stopping Volume ?


Also let say this trade I been watching for like 8-12 hours just to spot an entry, and once it entered, the SL...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #3,708
  • Sep 11, 2010 9:33am Sep 11, 2010 9:33am
just that day BUT can reverse market

I have been watching dxd , ddm and cat all week

cat has a very strong top around 70 ish all week. I would not be surprised if it is being held up here till options expiry . we have had no demand , ut and friday another no demand

so this options expiry friday maybe a temp top in the market as i can see valid vsa weakness in cat and ddm

Quoting foxybunny
Hi Malcolm,

Thanks for your sharing.

Do you mean the reversal is only for that day Friday ?
Or do you mean the reversal will run from that Friday and onwards for a few days or few weeks ?

Also are you just looking on the Thursday's trend before the Friday, or you watching for a few days trends leading to Thursday ?

eg1. Thursday is Up, so Friday Expiry is likely Down ?
eg2. Mon to Wed is Down, Thu is Up, so week is Down overall, Friday Expiry is likely to be Up?

I have noticed that Option Expiry Friday usually reversed my forex position,...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #3,709
  • Sep 11, 2010 9:41am Sep 11, 2010 9:41am
I think you need to think about background more


this was actually the long that I took for 26 pips

that stopping volume happened at a higher low than asia low , sign strength , also when we got that bottom we had 2 very valid stopping vol set ups , although it did not take us that far ,

anytime you see a down move on uh vol with next bar up this is ALWAYS a sign of strength and should make you look for long entry

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting foxybunny
My 7th VSA Trade (Live).

Executed Order.
EUR/USD - Short
Date: 10-Sep-10
Time: FxPro 15:30
Entry: 1.2693
SL: 1.2733 (-40 pips)
TP: 1.2593 (+40 pips)

Reasons:
Note the Red vertical line, the bar after this line is my signal bar.
After Buyer Climax,
Upthrust,
Then One Wide Down bar with Increase Volume showing Weakness.
Hull Red on M15 and M30.
Hull Green on H1.
Sell on break Low of Price Down Bar (One Wide Down Bar).
** The last 2 losing trades entered like Short on an Up Bar. This trade
decided to enter Short on a Down Bar with Increased...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #3,710
  • Sep 11, 2010 9:47am Sep 11, 2010 9:47am
any ultra high volume bars have to be taken with warning .. or alarm bells if you think down and you see one of these 90 % of time it is buyers , either sit aside if not in trade and wait for further weakness or see how next few bars act

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Quoting foxybunny
Hi Intel,

Much appreciated. Yes certainly helps.

The volume on my FxPro Demo charts does differ from what you have.




I did Not enter Short at the earlier bar than bar-K as waiting for Hull to confirm Red.
Bar-K was my first bar where Hull turned Red.

I set my order at the low of bar-K.
I thought this bar with the wide spread Down and High Vol is Confirming the Down Move.
I been waiting for this move.

How to tell that bar-K indicate it may contain Buying ??




Yes, it seem I often do get hold of Entry at Stopping Volume or Buyer...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #3,711
  • Sep 11, 2010 9:53am Sep 11, 2010 9:53am
Quoting malcolmb14
any ultra high volume bars have to be taken with warning .. or alarm bells if you think down and you see one of these 90 % of time it is buyers , either sit aside if not in trade and wait for further weakness or see how next few bars act

Attachment
same thing es ... high vol down bar confirmed long off 1100

go back and look in charts and look at what all ultra high vol bars reaction were...90% of the time they signal reversal

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #3,712
  • Sep 11, 2010 10:08am Sep 11, 2010 10:08am
Quoting malcolmb14
fx daily volumes are crap use futures

they showed stopping vol tuesday
Ditto!
  • #3,713
  • Sep 11, 2010 12:30pm Sep 11, 2010 12:30pm
Quoting Jasus
Today I went long on GU but failed miserably...

On the 30m I see buying when the market is reluctant to go down after that climatic down bar, and then I see stopping volume and a shakeout.

However the market is still making new lows, so I don't know if I should even consider entering... Then I wanted to know if I should have exited on that 2 no demand bars on the 5m? A higher low was already made here, and there was stopping volume, so I thought these no demands were just to accumulate more on the way down...
The only thing I would say to you is that never ignore the background. There was weakness in the background. From the daily chart all the way down to your M30, there was weakness. First of all, from the daily we have an up bar with ultra-high volume (highest of the month so far) closing off its highs- weakness. Secondly, looking at the H4 there was weakness playing out, also on H1 there was weakness after very wide spread up bar on ultra high volume (note: that climatic up-bar had the highest volume for the day looking from H1).

Now moving to your M30 chart where you took the trade of off, if I were to trade I would rather look for signs of weakness to take any trade. I have found using multiple time frame background in my analysis to be extremely useful that it is somewhat similar to adhering to the adage "the trend is your friend".

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In a nutshell, whatever the time frame you are taking a trade from, try to analyse the time frames above it not under it. Entries on lower, analyses on higher. If you trade this way you will notice the difference almost instantly.



====
* Add or TP in my chart depends on your own trade management plan.
  • #3,714
  • Sep 11, 2010 12:51pm Sep 11, 2010 12:51pm
Quoting wh1zz0
The only thing I would say to you is that never ignore the background. There was weakness in the background. From the daily chart all the way down to your M30, there was weakness. First of all, from the daily we have an up bar with ultra-high volume (highest of the month so far) closing off its highs- weakness. Secondly, looking at the H4 there was weakness playing out, also on H1 there was weakness after very wide spread up bar on ultra high volume (note: that climatic up-bar had the highest volume for the day looking from H1).

Now moving to your...
What do you mean by "fake test"? Is it weakness, and why do you call it fake test? It could be just a normal bar. And how do you know that bar you noted is a failed test?
Apart from the bars you noted there's an effort to go down with no results and shake-out too.

I did see the weakness on the 30m that you showed on the chart, but because GU was on the support and showing strenght I assumed it was being accumulated. I think the problem was that gu was on a clear downtrend, there was a valid down trendline with 3 touches.
  • #3,715
  • Sep 11, 2010 3:13pm Sep 11, 2010 3:13pm
Quoting Jasus
What do you mean by "fake test"? Is it weakness, and why do you call it fake test? It could be just a normal bar. And how do you know that bar you noted is a failed test?
Apart from the bars you noted there's an effort to go down with no results and shake-out too.

I did see the weakness on the 30m that you showed on the chart, but because GU was on the support and showing strenght I assumed it was being accumulated. I think the problem was that gu was on a clear downtrend, there was a valid down trendline with 3 touches.
I call it a fake test because we expect our usual test bar to make a lower low, close off its low and have a narrow range/spread. If you think about it logically it makes sense. Price is probing lower to see if there is still supply there, if there are orders on the sell side. It's all about effort and result so it doesn't mean because you see weakness you shouldn't try to understand what the next bar means. It didn't make a lower low so in my opinion it didn't really test it so if short, I'd probably hold to see what the other bars say.

Secondly, the other bar is a failed test because as price went lower immediately after the effort to fall bar, although it closed in the middle the spread was not really narrow and the volume increased. If that effort to fall contained sufficient buying, the next bar would have been up or perhaps the range of the down bar wouldn't be as it appeared and the volume might have been lower not slightly higher than the past bars.
  • #3,716
  • Sep 11, 2010 8:48pm Sep 11, 2010 8:48pm
Just in case the post gets deleted from the other thread. I think it deserves to be seen-maybe not followed but seen. LOL

"It is the intermediate trend that is of the greatest use when combined with VSA charting techniques". Tom Williams, MTM,p. 54.

It is a bit ironic that while Volume Spread Analysis is so adapt at defining turning points, it is most effective (and easiest) when used to trade trends. As retail traders, trends represent our edge. The Trend is not just our friend, it is our lover. Most traders gravitate to Volume Spread Analysis seeking following that siren's song: Buy Low and Sell High. A much more effective way to trade is to Buy high and Sell higher. What these traders fail to understand is the importance that VSA places on the concept of:

The path of least resistance :

* It takes an increase of buying, on up-days (or bars), to force the market up.
* It Takes an increase of selling, on down-days(or bars), to force the market down.
* If Selling has decreased on any down-move, the market will want to go up (No Selling Pressure).
* If Buying has decreased on any up-move, the market will want to fall (No Demand).

Couple this with an understanding of trend and we can keep it simple as we trade in harmony with the Smart Money.

Take a look at the chart below:

A1-A3: We call these candles "our old friend" in VSA because they are so telling and power when seen in the right place. Let's look at A1. It is a narrow range up candle on volume less than the previous two candles. The lack of volume tells us that the Smart Money is not interested in higher prices. If they are not interested in higher prices it must be because the expect prices to fall. From the perspective of the path of least resistance, if volume (activity) is decreasing as price rises then the path of least resistance must be down. We now know one reason that weakness when it appears, usually appears on up candles (bars).

Once we have defined the trend as down, then we can start to look for up candles on low volume.

B: Here we have a narrow range up candle on volume higher than the previous candle with price closing just above middle of the range. This is a Squat. The two keys here are the range and the close in relation to the volume. Note that volume is above average and increasing. With all that volume, how can the candle have such a narrow range? Something must be compressing the range. That something is the supply of the professional side of the market. Simply, supply must be swamping demand.
Whilst there is a buyer for every seller, this candle is telling us that a large amount of sell orders are in this area (this is where VSA has a bit of ORDER FLOW analysis in it).

As for the close, a bullish close would be higher in the range with the amount of volume seen. If we think of volume as effort, then the close does not represent to type of result we would expect to see.

On a side note, the term Squat comes from Bill Williams (Trading Chaos) and is therefore not VSA. The actual logistics of the candle's creation is pure VSA however. Bill Williams says all trends in with a squat as one of the last 1-5 intervals. I do not know if this is true. But one of the most powerful signs of weakness in VSA is End of a Rising Market. By definition, End of a Rising Market is a narrow range up candle(bar) on increasing volume preferable into new fresh territory. End of a Rising Market, therefore, is a squat.

C: Technically not an up close but an even close. Nevertheless, this is an nice example of an Up Thrust. It has an increasing range, makes a higher high than the previous two candles, has increasing volume, and closes near the low of its range. Clearly this candle cannot be strength with such a low close on that amount of volume (effort) no less. This was a stop catching maneuver. Note that the high of the Up thrust does not get as high or higher of the No Demand candle.

Most traders would benefit from letting go the their egos and trading with the trend rather than trying to be the one to pick the top or bottom...

"We have indicated already that if you are going to become a good trader, which then leads to making money in the (stock) market, you must trade with the consensus of professional opinion and not against it. This means once a move is in progress you must be able to identify the underlying trend in price movements and go with the flow..." Tom Williams, MTM, P. 50.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #3,717
  • Sep 12, 2010 1:34am Sep 12, 2010 1:34am
I have to ask because I see this all the time. In hiddengaps chart there is an upthurst and then 2 low volume down candles before price falls of the cliff.

If you look in many trend you will see same thing over and over. I no there is no hidden test no demand bars but if you think about it. If a hidden test is true for an ensuing up trend then it must be true for a down trend also.

or

is the answer all the demand is completely gone and price does not need alot of BBs to push it down. So price can ulitmately move down on low volume.
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  • #3,718
  • Sep 12, 2010 2:05am Sep 12, 2010 2:05am
Quoting malcolmb14
true gavin himself uses trend diamonds in his trading
Everybody can use what ever moving averages or other indicators, but have to say, non of these indicators dont give any more information to VSA than what you allready have, when studied volume and bars.
And to avoid closing trades too early, it is good to have trenchannels.
Sometimes you see VSA signals in retracements, I think you understand.

TW invented this VSA strategy, and we know, that everything what he says, is true. So, just listen him and do everything what he says, nothing else, so it will be okey after sometime.

But, this is great thread to learn, best so far what I have seen.

I like Intel`s clean charts and analysis.

Sometimes I sound like rude, but you know I have problems to write in english. I cant really express my self in english.
  • #3,719
  • Sep 12, 2010 2:21am Sep 12, 2010 2:21am
Quoting HiddenGap
Just in case the post gets deleted from the other thread. I think it deserves to be seen-maybe not followed but seen. LOL

"It is the intermediate trend that is of the greatest use when combined with VSA charting techniques". Tom Williams, MTM,p. 54.

It is a bit ironic that while Volume Spread Analysis is so adapt at defining turning points, it is most effective (and easiest) when used to trade trends. As retail traders, trends represent our edge. The Trend is not just our friend, it is our lover. Most...
Buy high and Sell higher? Maybe because that's what you have trained your brain as? As a bear market since 2000 / 2007-present?
  • #3,720
  • Sep 12, 2010 4:48am Sep 12, 2010 4:48am
Back to the business.

EU-H1

Accumalation or distribution, any thoughts?
What are SmartMoney doing here, buying or selling?
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