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vsa with Malcolm

  • #3,681
  • Sep 10, 2010 4:18pm Sep 10, 2010 4:18pm
Malcom pros don't buy options they write them. Your thought is funny.
Reserved
  • #3,682
  • Sep 10, 2010 4:34pm Sep 10, 2010 4:34pm
Quoting HiddenGap
With respect to Mal, I will PM you my thoughts. There is a valid long in that area, although the set up is not that great. Keep the charts coming.

It is ok i have a tough skin and always great to see your point of view... lol

there was a valid long on the test , but we are coming into top of a channel that has been there for a few days now 1.2750.

also if you scan a few other time frames (30 and 60) one can see why this trade failed

as you said valid long was there but not the best set up with the supply zone just overhead
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #3,683
  • Sep 10, 2010 4:48pm Sep 10, 2010 4:48pm
Quoting ZootSuit
Malcom pros don't buy options they write them. Your thought is funny.
Laugh all you want .... ..I will share something with you all.

I do not know the logistics of who does what really to be honest ....just a simple observation that has made me up to 20 % in one day on my futures account as there are very few time it does not work.

all i have come to observe is that prior to options expiry if market is long options expiry day is down and forms a pivot high ...if market is down then options expiry will do reversal up for day and form possible trend reversal

here is es chart with each options expiry date noted on ..you can see the pattern for yourself. The only thing that I can attribute this to that if market was trending up then most are in calls and when the calls are exercised the stock could be purchased at the strike price and the profit taking ensues , driving stock price down overall. Maybe I am naive in this as I do not have a full understanding of how the market really works internally. I know this makes money though....

There was only 2 days this year that the counter trend stratergy on options day did not work , and even those days were dojis

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #3,684
  • Sep 10, 2010 5:43pm Sep 10, 2010 5:43pm
Good observation. Makes me curious to know when the next options expiration is

Quoting malcolmb14
Laugh all you want .... ..I will share something with you all.

I do not know the logistics of who does what really to be honest ....just a simple observation that has made me up to 20 % in one day on my futures account as there are very few time it does not work.

all i have come to observe is that prior to options expiry if market is long options expiry day is down and forms a pivot high ...if market is down then options expiry will do reversal up for day and form possible trend reversal

here is es chart with each options expiry date...
Dr. C
  • #3,685
  • Sep 10, 2010 5:56pm Sep 10, 2010 5:56pm
I was trading this pair at the time you took your short position. This is what i saw on the h1 chart. this is the background information prior to your entry and would have kept me from taking any shorts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,686
  • Sep 10, 2010 8:42pm Sep 10, 2010 8:42pm
Quoting cvcamper
Good observation. Makes me curious to know when the next options expiration is
next friday is options expiry
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #3,687
  • Sep 10, 2010 10:11pm Sep 10, 2010 10:11pm
Today I went long on GU but failed miserably...

On the 30m I see buying when the market is reluctant to go down after that climatic down bar, and then I see stopping volume and a shakeout.

However the market is still making new lows, so I don't know if I should even consider entering... Then I wanted to know if I should have exited on that 2 no demand bars on the 5m? A higher low was already made here, and there was stopping volume, so I thought these no demands were just to accumulate more on the way down...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,688
  • Edited 10:30pm Sep 10, 2010 10:18pm | Edited 10:30pm
Jasus
Take away those indicators and add trendlines, you get better picture of the market.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2030
  • #3,689
  • Sep 10, 2010 10:25pm Sep 10, 2010 10:25pm
Quoting scotie pipen
I was trading this pair at the time you took your short position. This is what i saw on the h1 chart. this is the background information prior to your entry and would have kept me from taking any shorts.
Hi Scotie Pipen,

Thanks for your reply on USD/CHF-Short.

I click on your chart, and could not see it clearly.
Then I save your chart, also cannot see it clearly.

Would you mind posting again your chart with a White background, and include the time on the bottom and your pointers, so I can compare with my chart what you are seeing and what you are pointing out ??

Perhaps also if you could save it an "PNG" as that seems clearer than "GIF" and "JPG".

Cheers,
FB.
  • #3,690
  • Sep 10, 2010 10:31pm Sep 10, 2010 10:31pm
Quoting juhanimi
Jasus
Take away those indicators and add trendlines, you get better picture of the market.
What indicators? I only use Hulls 34 and 21 and chandelier is just for exits sometimes. I make trend channels every time I can, but you're right, should have traced a trendline on 30m, there's a validated down trendline.

But why are you posting something you wrote 1 month ago? I try to read every post but sorry I can't...
  • #3,691
  • Sep 10, 2010 10:34pm Sep 10, 2010 10:34pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2030

So, 18 pages in VSA book, must be important.
  • #3,692
  • Sep 10, 2010 10:40pm Sep 10, 2010 10:40pm
Quoting Petar_Serbia
Hello forexbuny,

I will tell you from my veiw,for me first entry is good second isnt good entry...On first you let you wiiner go go on looser trade and that is very bad,you got about 43 pips you must put SL at BE or take profit...I dont know why you use 50 SL 50 TP? ON second example you take very early your entry,you can see price didnt broke previuse low and that is for me bad entry..

Cheers

Petar
Hi Petar,

For second entry, I put in a limit order for a break of the low of my signal bar, it did pass the low so the system just trigger entry, even though the close was not below the signal bar low.
Here I probably waited too long after the signal bar, like 3 hours after signal bar for VSA#5 GBP/USD-Short.


For VSA#4 EUR/USD-Long:
I put a SL near a recent swing high or swing low.
In this case SL near a recent swing low, and that was around 50pips.

Then I put TP to be about the same as SL, if I think it could reach there base on recent high/low, so this is why I put 50pips for TP as well.

For this VSA#4 EUR/USD-Long based on my entry 1.2729, it reach a high of 1.2764, that is a potential of 35pips profit.

Normally once I entered a transaction, I put SL and TP, and then maybe not be at computer, so it will hit SL and TP.

How would you manage this trade?
Would you basically monitor this on the screen once your enter?
What initial SL would you put in as ?
How would you determine initial SL & TP?

Cheers,
FB.
  • #3,693
  • Sep 10, 2010 10:46pm Sep 10, 2010 10:46pm
Quoting Jasus

But why are you posting something you wrote 1 month ago? I try to read every post but sorry I can't...
TW : I dont get it, why people dont understand this.

So I was thinking: I have to do everything exactly as he say, because I can see, that this man clearly knows what he is talking about.

We really dont need any indicators to see how supply and demand is working on the charts. Only volume and bars/candlesticks and trendlines to see big picture.
  • #3,694
  • Sep 10, 2010 11:05pm Sep 10, 2010 11:05pm
Quoting juhanimi
TW : I dont get it, why people dont understand this.

So I was thinking: I have to do everything exactly as he say, because I can see, that this man clearly knows what he is talking about.

We really dont need any indicators to see how supply and demand is working on the charts. Only volume and bars/candlesticks and trendlines to see big picture.
If you have a look at what tradeguider program has you'll see it has a trend confirmation system (trend diamonds), a volatility-based stop loss and resistance levels. These are used by VSAers... Hulls, chandelier and pivot lines are doing that work. I'm not "re-inventing" anything here or changing what Tom Williams teaches, I'm using indicators malcom posted and that are equivalent to those of tradeguider's program.
  • #3,695
  • Edited Sep 11, 2010 3:44am Sep 10, 2010 11:12pm | Edited Sep 11, 2010 3:44am
Quoting malcolmb14
I looekd at this deeper and i hope all can learn form this

here is the set up form a vsa perspective and while nothing wrong with the long the entry and exit could have been better

the entry was on the stopping vol after we saw the wide spread up bar at 1,2710 , just above whole number 1.2700... tight stop of 20 pip is all that is required.

when price broke up above your entry level we had uh volumes hit the up moves and it was very choppy ( meaning that long wicks on tops of candles). sellers hit the up move hard , you ignored this. This...
Hi Malcolm,

Your picture really help explain. Thanks.

It seem that I am either entering on trigger of a Stopping Volume or Buying Climax.
Of course I am not realising this at the time of entry.
Normally I look for Better Volume with colour that is Red or White/Black to give me the hint of Buying Climax and Stopping Volume.
Perhaps relying too much on the colour.

How can I spot better on these Buying Climax and Stopping Volume ?


Also let say this trade I been watching for like 8-12 hours just to spot an entry, and once it entered, the SL and TP is set.
And I don't move the SL and TP, because past experiences show moving it did not help me in the past.
Then I may not be monitoring after this entry (as already watch 8-12hr).
How to manage this ?
Or would you just keep monitoring once you have entered ?


I really want to have the tight 15-20pips Stop Loss!! If only...


Your have another post to HiddenGap that if look at higher timeframe like M30 or H1, this trade should Not be a Long.

In this trade, I drew a channel on H4, it was a Up channel, and the entry price was at the bottom on channel like going to bounce up, so I took this long.
My H4 chart attached here, with Red vertical line near entry.


So far I am looking for VSA volume signal on M15, then check Hull on M15 and H1 to see for entry.
I don't check volume on other time frame.
Usually there is no trendline or channel on any chart.

Is it that I am missing some bigger picture ???

Would you mind showing me the charts of this trade of how you drew the channels for M30 and H1 to say that it was likely Not a Long ??

Cheers,
FB.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-09-09_VSA_Exit4_EURUSD_H4.png Size: 37 KB
  • #3,696
  • Sep 10, 2010 11:13pm Sep 10, 2010 11:13pm
There are lots of indicators in tradeguider, but you dont need those to see how supply and demand is working. I think they have been added, because people have problems to understand VSA, and I understand that, because it is not so easy when you start to learn VSA.
If you have seen when Tom teaches, he does not have any indicator, only trendlines.
  • #3,697
  • Sep 10, 2010 11:19pm Sep 10, 2010 11:19pm
Quoting malcolmb14
thanks for the kind words

we should all have one goal in here .. to learn and become better traders , I also have learnt from some of the great posts by others and the newbie vsaers questions ( foxy) make me review what i know about vsa .

No bullshit or stupid posts on how much we made or arguing , those that want to do that just go on my iggy list so they cannot post in here and spoil a great thread we have made for ourselves.

.

It is good to see my charts and questions can help sharpen Malcolm's VSA skills better.

If only it can sharpen mine!
  • #3,698
  • Sep 10, 2010 11:35pm Sep 10, 2010 11:35pm
Trading Hulls, no trades here, trading VSA, 2 buys.
Case closed.
Have a good weekend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,699
  • Sep 10, 2010 11:38pm Sep 10, 2010 11:38pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Laugh all you want .... ..I will share something with you all.

I do not know the logistics of who does what really to be honest ....just a simple observation that has made me up to 20 % in one day on my futures account as there are very few time it does not work.

all i have come to observe is that prior to options expiry if market is long options expiry day is down and forms a pivot high ...if market is down then options expiry will do reversal up for day and form possible trend reversal

here is es chart with each options expiry date noted...
Hi Malcolm,

Thanks for your sharing.

Do you mean the reversal is only for that day Friday ?
Or do you mean the reversal will run from that Friday and onwards for a few days or few weeks ?

Also are you just looking on the Thursday's trend before the Friday, or you watching for a few days trends leading to Thursday ?

eg1. Thursday is Up, so Friday Expiry is likely Down ?
eg2. Mon to Wed is Down, Thu is Up, so week is Down overall, Friday Expiry is likely to be Up?

I have noticed that Option Expiry Friday usually reversed my forex position, then reversed again on that same day.
Now prefer to stay away trading forex on Option Expiry Friday. It acts almost as if it a Non-Farm Payroll news day.


cvcamper: Note that Options Expiry is Usually on the 3rd Friday of Every Month. Only need to be aware if Friday is a public holiday, then it is Thursday.


Cheers,
FB.
  • #3,700
  • Sep 10, 2010 11:42pm Sep 10, 2010 11:42pm
Quoting HiddenGap
With respect to Mal, I will PM you my thoughts. There is a valid long in that area, although the set up is not that great. Keep the charts coming.

Hi HiddenGap,

The charts are still coming.
Results are Bad!

Hope to get more comments on the other trades as well.

Cheers,
FB.
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