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James16 is not credible

  • #481
  • Sep 10, 2010 10:04am Sep 10, 2010 10:04am
Quoting wwwin
Now that is really the most ridiculous post of the day, there are no 3 hour 23 minute charts and there are no 15 hour 48 minute charts.
Your ignorance really knows no bounds.
  • #482
  • Sep 10, 2010 10:11am Sep 10, 2010 10:11am
Quoting Razzle
Your ignorance really knows no bounds.
and if you code one up, you will be the only fool using it.
On the other hand, there are traders that trade on the 1h, daily or whatever, and they trade patterns, and the combined effect (CROWD BEHAVIOUR, NOT ONE FOOL TRADING 15 HOUR 23 MINUTES CHART) is that the TA works as it becomes a self-fullfiling prophecy.

You don't have any idea what the theory behind TA is.
  • #483
  • Sep 10, 2010 10:17am Sep 10, 2010 10:17am
Quoting wwwin
You don't have any idea what the theory behind TA is.
Now that is funny. I think its whats known as "comic irony"

Perhaps you should do a little reasearch, oh I forgot, guy's like you dont read books, or undertake research.
  • #484
  • Sep 10, 2010 10:22am Sep 10, 2010 10:22am
Quoting Razzle
Now that is funny. I think its whats known as "comic irony"

Perhaps you should do a little reasearch, oh I forgot, guy's like you dont read books, or undertake research.
What is funny is that you always only quote the part of the post that is a naked statement (just like all your posts) and leave out the reasoning part of the post. So you are on ignore and you can post all the insults you want as the smart people will figure you out.
  • #485
  • Sep 10, 2010 10:28am Sep 10, 2010 10:28am
Quoting Slack
Alright, there's a 25 min window to enter at the price you did....
I can't really make any sense of your chart, but thanks.. As far as much SL being soft, and my lack of confidence. .and paranoia... You sound like my therapist now

try and figure this one out.. only trade I made today.. 20 minutes after NY Open

Cheerio, have a great weekend everyone.. Its Friday, get off FF and stop bickering about pinbars. Time to get fucked up, drink some http://lh4.googleusercontent.com/pub...sZIL9Jx5JIj_QM

Party.. and get ready for Monday..
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lowest draw down possible please.
  • #486
  • Sep 10, 2010 10:44am Sep 10, 2010 10:44am
Oh! You're lack of confidence and paranoia ... need to work hard on it...


Quoting ehrek
I can't really make any sense of your chart, but thanks.. As far as much SL being soft, and my lack of confidence. .and paranoia... You sound like my therapist now

try and figure this one out.. only trade I made today.....
  • #487
  • Sep 10, 2010 11:10am Sep 10, 2010 11:10am
@wwwin

For what it's worth I don't think your comments show ignorance even though I disagree with you. I think this is a classic example of our different interpretations of the market, and part of what makes trading so fantastic. It's clear for anyone to see, who can be bothered to look, that it's more than possible to make money in the market with just about any strategy you care to believe in.

My trouble in believing in the mainstream understanding of technical analysis as you have described of crowd mentality and self fulfilling prophecy, is that the crowd just aren't looking at the same thing. Everyone of us is in a minority group when we look at our charts. Regardless of where we are in the world, and which broker we use, we see something that the vast majority of people don't see....unless of course we are all using the 1H and below, in which case my argument is void, but I highly doubt the majority are on the lower time frames. Individual candles will look different, as will multiple candle formations, support and resistance lines and just about everything else. So if the crowd aren't seeing the same thing, how can crowd mentality make anything self fulfilling?

As Hanover stated, his bank balance is proof to him that TA as he uses it works profitably. But on the same note, my bank balance is proof to me that my strategy which completely ignores that TA, is profitable. Are we both right or are we both wrong? Or is one of us right and the other just lucky?

I personally can't see any proof that shapes and patterns on a chart made up of arbitrary "time frames" hold any statistical advantage or edge. I started my trading career believing in all this, but slowly discounted it for myself the deeper I looked and the more study I did.

I'm not saying for one second that you can't be profitable using standard TA. But I really don't think it's the pretty shape or line drawn across your chart that is actually responsible for your success. I think the successful traders have something the vast majority don't. Something that is too deep and off subject to discuss here. If it was the shapes that held the key to entry and exit, all these fantastical EA's on sale for $47 would work. The human element of interpretation and decision making (either consciously or subconsciously) is the key factor here.

As you can tell, I am not a believer in TA, and would sway towards to opinion that markets as represented on a TA chart are random (that's not the same as saying the markets are random). I have no doubt I will get flamed and ridiculed for this, but I have my way of trading and I'm happy with it. You have a different way, and everyone else have their own unique ways, and yet tens of thousands of us make our living in exactly the same market, without following the same rules. Isn't forex great!

A good weekend to you all.
  • #488
  • Sep 10, 2010 11:16am Sep 10, 2010 11:16am
This one is for you Flotsom ;
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lowest draw down possible please.
  • #489
  • Sep 10, 2010 11:17am Sep 10, 2010 11:17am
Perfect post to finish this thread flotsom!
  • #490
  • Sep 10, 2010 11:27am Sep 10, 2010 11:27am
Quoting ehrek
I can't really make any sense of your chart, but thanks.. As far as much SL being soft, and my lack of confidence. .and paranoia... You sound like my therapist now
Save the $$ and dump the therapist. Then tighten those Paranoia Stops (I think I just coined a new term )... trust me, it will help your equity curve
  • #491
  • Edited 11:54am Sep 10, 2010 11:30am | Edited 11:54am
Good post, but remember that a trendline is part of TA, TA is not just trading patterns, H & S or whatever. A trendline, or S & R levels, involve crowd psychology, just like you would buy when it reaches the lower trendline, so would a lot of people too. That is what makes the price jump off the trendline or if it brakes it a lot of people join the crowd. As far as different time frames, properly drawn trendlines would be very similar if not identical in the daily, 4h and hourly chart. I often change from daily to 4h to 1h and the same trendline would be connected in all 3 time frames.
I never posted anywhere that I only trade patterns, as a matter of fact, I like trendlines and S &R better. So anybody that assumes to know what my style is is merely guessing. Do I take pin bars at extremes under the right conditions? Yes, but they don't occur often so there have to be other triggers if you want to trade more often. Don't assume b/c I mentioned pin bars that that is the only way I trade, or that I trade butterflies or animal shapes. That is just guessing my style from just one post. You may be surprised that you and I do not disagree based on what you posted.
My point was directed at KGB and different time daily closing by different brokers, nothing more nothing less, and then this genious steps in with the 15 hr. 23 chart nonsense.
Have a good weekend.

Quoting flotsom
@wwwin

For what it's worth I don't think your comments show ignorance even though I disagree with you. I think this is a classic example of our different interpretations of the market, and part of what makes trading so fantastic. It's clear for anyone to see, who can be bothered to look, that it's more than possible to make money in the market with just about any strategy you care to believe in.

My trouble in believing in the mainstream understanding of technical analysis as you have described of crowd mentality and self fulfilling prophecy,...
  • #492
  • Sep 10, 2010 1:35pm Sep 10, 2010 1:35pm
Once you see my live trades, you'll either say I cheated some how, or at that point, you'll finally agree that pinbars at good areas really do work over the long run.

Quoting Razzle
Thats a point thats often made, but really its a ridiculous argument.

You can form any candle pattern you like simply by altering where you want the bar to begin and end in time. In the extreme, you could argue something such as "there's a perfect pin bar formed on the 3 hour, 23 minute chart", or the 15 hour 48 minute chart, or any other arbitary time period from which you want to make up your charts.

By the same argument, you can always find a set of parameters for any indicator, in some timeframe that appears to work for a given trade...
  • #493
  • Sep 10, 2010 1:39pm Sep 10, 2010 1:39pm
Fact is, if you take 5 min pins at key locations, you often times get 10 or even 20 to 1 wins, this is one strategy I use, and it's very profitable.

Not to speak of substanial tf's like weekly daily.

Engulfing bars work well to. Often times a bullish outside bar at a good area will be better then a pin

But there is def people that don't believe in ta, like the bank trader I know, he laughed at the bars I showed him, he doesn't use charts at all,
just price.

If you want to see the power of pins, chose weekly tf, go back a few years on a bunch of pairs, see how many clean up.

You need to look for the ones that stick out, and have a nice long wick, and are not trading straight into crazy s/r, theses pins work wonders.
  • #494
  • Sep 10, 2010 1:58pm Sep 10, 2010 1:58pm
Quoting wwwin
I don't see how you are going to backtest something that is as dynamic as FX to find certainty going forward.
Not certainty, positive expectancy.
  • #495
  • Edited 2:26pm Sep 10, 2010 2:08pm | Edited 2:26pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Not certainty, positive expectancy.
OK, but you appear to believe that broker closing time makes a great difference, so then any backtest you make would be unique to broker closing time, but more importantly...
you have posted that fundamentals is what matters not TA, so how are you going to incorporate fundamentals into the backtest? I appears that if your theory is that TA does not work, then under that assumption backtesting is meaningless.
Is the backtest going to account for triggers that you fail to take b/c NFP is within 1 hour of the trigger? Is it going to incorporate human decision to tighten a TSL right before Bernanke speaks?

I say if you want to know if something works, test it live going forward. Then you can use TA and allow for fundamentals to enter into the decision on how to manage the trade.
  • #496
  • Edited 2:27pm Sep 10, 2010 2:17pm | Edited 2:27pm
Quoting wwwin
OK, but you have posted that fundamentals is what matters not TA, so how are you going to incorporate fundamentals into the backtest? I appears that if your theory is that TA does not work, then under that assumption backtesting is meaningless.
Woah, I never made any such claims (I'm a technical trader). Where are you getting this from? All I did was agree with others on the skepticism of pin bars having a positive edge.

edit - And I'm not going to join in a discussion on the merits of back/forward testing (and you seem to have dropped the "forward" part). If it's not for you, that's fine by me.
  • #497
  • Sep 10, 2010 2:24pm Sep 10, 2010 2:24pm
Quoting Razzle
wwwin - Your ignorance really knows no bounds.
I couldn't agree with you more.
  • #498
  • Edited 7:30pm Sep 10, 2010 2:34pm | Edited 7:30pm
Quoting asafyigal
I couldn't agree with you more.
hehe, I still want to know what your prior username was and what you are hiding in the closet.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...4&postcount=33

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...0&postcount=37
  • #499
  • Sep 10, 2010 2:44pm Sep 10, 2010 2:44pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Woah, I never made any such claims (I'm a technical trader). Where are you getting this from? All I did was agree with others on the skepticism of pin bars having a positive edge.

edit - And I'm not going to join in a discussion on the merits of back/forward testing (and you seem to have dropped the "forward" part). If it's not for you, that's fine by me.
If that is the case, then I may have wrongly attributed somebody else's post about TA being garbage to you. I apologize. I really do appreciate your posts since your posts are well thought out and logical.

So if you are a technical trader and are skeptic of pin bars, are you also skeptic of Shooting Stars, Hammers, Selling or Buying climax, V-shape bottoms, and Key Reversal days?
How about a pin bar that quickly rejects a trendline or S or R level. Does it help you at all in confirming the rejection?
  • #500
  • Sep 10, 2010 8:18pm Sep 10, 2010 8:18pm
I have created my journal http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...06#post4014906

No arguing over there tho, its merely for anyone to see how I trade what I learnt.
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