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No more BS - What have you learned?

  • #61
  • Sep 9, 2010 10:50pm Sep 9, 2010 10:50pm
Quoting hanover
If TA offers no better probability than 50/50, and your trade P/L has no bearing, then what is the basis for your exits?

(Hopefully that's a valid question; I'm not trying to be a smarta$$.)

Absolutely valid, Hanover. I, like you and many others, use TA for entry and exit criteria, the only problem is that it only works some of the time. Sort of like predicting whether the next toss is a head or a tail.

What seems to increase the probability of TA working appropriately are real world events. A fine example is the FED's Aug 31st approval of China's 10% stake in Morgan Stanley. If you were strictly looking at price, TA was saying south. Obviously, that's no longer the case.

Without real world events, TA is a complicated coin toss. That's all I'm willing to discuss about the TA subject, otherwise we're having another random/nonrandom discussion... and I'm pretty sick of those.

P.S. - for the record, I know that you don't have a single smart ass bone in your body.
  • #62
  • Sep 9, 2010 10:55pm Sep 9, 2010 10:55pm
Quoting mr.marketz

Without real world events, TA is a complicated coin toss....
Because you're the be all and end all and if you cant do it no one can... Not disputing world events couldnt increase your understanding of whats happening but hey if it aint broke

Quoting supremeChaos

another awesome post!
1 of the main reasons i love trading is because of the psychology involved.
Ditto - Once I stopped focusing on patterns and focusing on people I began to enjoy trading again. Infact I learnt to love it
Time hides Nothing
  • #63
  • Sep 9, 2010 11:04pm Sep 9, 2010 11:04pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Because you're the be all and end all and if you cant do it no one can... Not disputing world events couldnt increase your understanding of whats happening but hey if it aint broke



Ditto - Once I stopped focusing on patterns and focusing on people I began to enjoy trading again.
Cindy,

I'm a bit confused, you start a thread asking "what have you learned", I take the time to offer my thoughts on the subject, I engage in conversation, and answer questions from other members in the thread. I never said my way was the only way... just stating how I feel about TA alone.

If you're making bucks trading pin bars, good for you.
  • #64
  • Sep 9, 2010 11:21pm Sep 9, 2010 11:21pm
Quoting mr.marketz
Cindy,

I'm a bit confused, you start a thread asking "what have you learned", I take the time to offer my thoughts on the subject, I engage in conversation, and answer questions from other members in the thread. I never said my way was the only way... just stating how I feel about TA alone.

If you're making bucks trading pin bars, good for you.
This is my point

You make such unfounded asumptions who said anything about pin bars?

Actually you werent stating how you feel you were stating it like a fact

I was simply correcting your ignorance

No offence intended -

perhaps a better way to put it may have been

"For me trading TA alone is a complicated coin toss" see the difference?
Time hides Nothing
  • #65
  • Sep 9, 2010 11:24pm Sep 9, 2010 11:24pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
This is my point

You make such asumptions who said anything about pin bars?

Actually you werent stating how you feel you were stating it like a fact

I was simply correcting your ignorance

No offence intended -

perhaps a better way to put it may have been

"For me trading TA alone is impossible" see the difference?
Does this mean you two won't be going out to a night club together?

I just asking...
  • #66
  • Sep 9, 2010 11:29pm Sep 9, 2010 11:29pm
Quoting mr.marketz
Absolutely valid, Hanover. I, like you and many others, use TA for entry and exit criteria, the only problem is that it only works some of the time. Sort of like predicting whether the next toss is a head or a tail.

What seems to increase the probability of TA working appropriately are real world events. A fine example is the FED's Aug 31st approval of China's 10% stake in Morgan Stanley. If you were strictly looking at price, TA was saying south. Obviously, that's no longer the case.

Without real world events, TA is a complicated coin toss....
Shit, that clears things up!
Edit: I think point 3 in my original post is becoming rapidly more salient.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #67
  • Sep 9, 2010 11:30pm Sep 9, 2010 11:30pm
It seems that every post should start out with, "In my opinion.....".

But then I always thought that was a given.
  • #68
  • Sep 9, 2010 11:30pm Sep 9, 2010 11:30pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
This is my point

You make such unfounded asumptions who said anything about pin bars?

Actually you werent stating how you feel you were stating it like a fact

I was simply correcting your ignorance

No offence intended -

perhaps a better way to put it may have been

"For me trading TA alone is a complicated coin toss" see the difference?
Fair enough. Let's agree to ignore semantics from this point forward, and try our best to keep what seems to be fairly positive and beneficial thread moving forward.
  • #69
  • Sep 9, 2010 11:42pm Sep 9, 2010 11:42pm
Quoting mr.marketz
Fair enough. Let's agree to ignore semantics from this point forward, and try our best to keep what seems to be fairly positive and beneficial thread moving forward.

Alright I respect your opinion and your resolve -
Time hides Nothing
  • #70
  • Sep 9, 2010 11:44pm Sep 9, 2010 11:44pm
Quoting Price
It seems that every post should start out with, "In my opinion.....".

But then I always thought that was a given.
Yeah im sorta wondering about this myself! Point taken
Time hides Nothing
  • #71
  • Sep 9, 2010 11:51pm Sep 9, 2010 11:51pm
Quoting Craig
Shit, that clears things up!
Edit: I think point 3 in my original post is becoming rapidly more salient.
Not sure I follow?
  • #72
  • Sep 9, 2010 11:54pm Sep 9, 2010 11:54pm
Quoting mr.marketz
Not sure I follow?
I'm not surprised.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #73
  • Sep 10, 2010 12:04am Sep 10, 2010 12:04am
Quoting Craig
I'm not surprised.
Craig,

Come on now, big guy. Are you upset because I'm always critical of you math guys. Look I'm sorry, man. I really do respect you guys... hell, I envy you guys. I'm terrible at mathematics, and always will be (I'm more right-side brain).

You posted those derivative videos about LTCM not to long ago. Those guys were math Gods, and shit still hit the fan. Being savvy with numbers is a major advantage in this game, but if it starts to blur the big picture... it's going to be ugly.

How does that old saying go....

"He who is good with numbers thinks everything is a math formula"
  • #74
  • Sep 10, 2010 12:05am Sep 10, 2010 12:05am
Quoting Slack
Does this mean you two won't be going out to a night club together?

I just asking...
No Slack I dont take these things personaly myself mr marketz is still on my christmas card list I was just provoking thought

I guess FOR ME it was like someone was trying to tell me the sky is green and i was saying no its blue

At the end of the day its silly because everyone has their own market goggles on and are entitled to share their thoughts - I mean TA to someone might MEAN a completely different thing to another person and they take the term as a middle ground but are arguing about 2 completely different things

So many ways to skin a cat and when people are aprehensive about defining exactly what they mean (i.e dont want to give away an edge) you get these vague arguments about nothing! Its funny really if you think about it.

Same way you get half way threads and half way opinions all over this half way house of a forum

So back on topic one of the best things I learnt was to think for myself. go out on my own and find things out the hard and painful way - no more spoon feeding or trying to "copy" someone else. This took a while but it was so worth it. Still learning everyday

I guess for me it was learning how to learn and learning how not to learn that in the end did wonders.
Time hides Nothing
  • #75
  • Sep 10, 2010 12:45am Sep 10, 2010 12:45am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Very simple - I feel I understand it. Or understand it enough to know that its not a coin flip. and its not about patterns to me - I think theres a general misconception about a charts purpose in trading - If anything its a good visual on whats happening but its just pixles

When I hear someone say TA is a coin flip then I simply know that they dont "GET it" - I hate the word technical analysis anyway but I guess its what i do seeing as I dont rely on fundermentals
TA is a flame that moths are drawn to. This is the market and there is nothing you can do to change it. TA works as well as a "crystal ball", which we all know does not exist. There is nothing technical to analyze. Open, high, and low... where is price now in comparison to those prices. When you sit down and open your trading platform, note the current price. What happened next... did price go up or down? What does that tell you about which way to trade? When it goes up, you buy and when it goes down you sell. The price you noted when you opened the platform is all you need to know to determine which way price is moving. Price is either moving away from the noted price or towards it. You'll be more profitable if you trade away from the noted price rather than towards it.
  • #76
  • Sep 10, 2010 1:01am Sep 10, 2010 1:01am
Quoting tjfxtrader
TA is a flame that moths are drawn to. This is the market and there is nothing you can do to change it. TA works as well as a "crystal ball", which we all know does not exist. There is nothing technical to analyze. Open, high, and low... where is price now in comparison to those prices. When you sit down and open your trading platform, note the current price. What happened next... did price go up or down? What does that tell you about which way to trade? When it goes up, you buy and when it goes down you sell. The price you noted when you opened...
What you just described is still TA -
Time hides Nothing
  • #77
  • Edited 3:00am Sep 10, 2010 1:28am | Edited 3:00am
I read an article about the forex market risk. This person who wrote the article is an representant of Forex Company. The article war wrote on his own site. I`ll try to translate better:

"FOREX market is increasingly characterized as a market with high volatility and risk lever, irrational or manipulated. Wrong. The first risk is always controlled by the investor, so that volatility (only 1% per day) or leverage DOES NOT INFLUENCE THE RISK. Such statements and descriptions are made by ignorants, those who do not understand any financial market not just the currency market, there`s not technical or fundamental differences between the financial markets, but different characteristics that require a degree of understanding. The main problem is the education of investors, understanding the risk, characteristics and influence factors and not the Forex Market. "

What you think?
  • #78
  • Sep 10, 2010 1:57am Sep 10, 2010 1:57am
Because trading is sometimes seen as majorly psychological, many traders find themselves applying the wisdom of trading to the wisdom of life.

So go ahead and apply these back and forth as you please.
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  • #79
  • Sep 10, 2010 2:07am Sep 10, 2010 2:07am
Thanks VX wise words indeed = )
Time hides Nothing
  • #80
  • Sep 10, 2010 2:16am Sep 10, 2010 2:16am
Quoting mr.marketz
I always thought that I was a pretty sharp guy. Confidence always ran high, analytical skills were in tune, etc. Then the market exposed me for what I truly was... an undisciplined sloppy fuck up who couldn't say no to his inner demons.

Obviously, living out the rest of my life with the knowledge of being the above said description was hard accept. I changed myself (and still changing). It was the most difficult process I ever went through, but also the most significant one, as well.

Trading made me successful long before I ever turned a profit....
Well said and spot on.
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