Hi, Greg, I've been following your thread for a while and trying to learn how you trade by basically reverse engineering your charts and trade times. I know you don't give all of the details on how you trade due to time constraints, but I'm wondering if you could answer a question regarding your latest set of charts. When looking at the 3 recent charts, did you look at weekly first, then daily, then pull the trigger once price dropped below cpp on the 4 hour, or did you go down to even lower time frames to make your decision to short? Thank you for your time and I appreciate all I've learned from watching what you have had time to post.
I don't go into analysis detail with every submission because I've covered my strategy and the setups I look for many times. (The circled candles areas should make the setup opportunity obvious if you've been reading my thread for awhile).
If the candles on all the higher time frames are weighing to the downside (red candles); if in the current session price started below the CPP; and if the stochastics on larger time frames are overbought and heading down, it's hard to come up with any other trade scenario than to the downside.
...To phrase this as a question: Is there a higher percentage probability that price will go up this session (100+ pips), or down (100+pips), given the information I have? [A minimum of 100 pips "trend" or "move" is the rule I try to follow (and if the market is chopping/consolidating/ranging sideways less than 100 pips moves up or down, it's best to stand aside)].
Though I don't trade the weekly chart, I do look it at and the trend direction and/or color(bear/bull) of current or last few weekly candles.
I make my decision to enter a trade based on trending momentum at particular time, usually around pre-London or London Open. If there is trend direction momentum earlier than that, I try to understand why, e.g. maybe the trend is so compelling that traders are jumping onboard earlier (Asian session, etc.)
...Again, besides trend direction, it's very important for me to note where price is in relation to the CPP when the new daily pivots come out. Yesterday afternoon's candles (PDT) were tracking below the CPP, which added weight to the downside.
100 pips target looked like a good shot. I placed an arbitrary profit stop at 100 pips, with a stop loss at break even (first trade was stop out) and retired. It worked out. Of course there is always the possibility price will reverse and stop me out, so I place a stop loss at breakeven after price has moved in my favor around 30 pips.
I have looked over everything you've posted, but think I may have been missing the forest for the trees, so to speak. Anyway, I appreciate your response and breakdown of the trading situation. You make very good points, thus making it sound much more simple than I was trying to make it.
Hi Flinty, Regarding new leverage limits, I haven't given it much thought. Obviously the new limits will impact every trader. How will it affect you? Greg
Hi Flinty, Regarding new leverage limits, I haven't given it much thought. Obviously the new limits will impact every trader. How will it affect you? Greg
Ignored
Hi Greg:
To be honest, I'm still studying forex and have not actually "traded" yet other than demo...but was planning to start soon-- with gbp/jpy as I have been practicing mainly with this pair and am most familiar with it, until these new limits...
At this point, I am considering looking at one of the major pairs with 50:1 leverage such as USD/JPY...I believe you have traded this pair on and off? Now I will need to familiarize myself with this pair or one of the others.
I don't use weekly or monthly pivots, daily pivots work fine for my intra-day trading. If weekly or monthly pivots work for other traders that's great, I just don't need 'em.
i'm just amazed with your results and percentage of winners! I would love to duplicate your entries...one other factor that I need to consider is that you may hang on to your trades longer than I do...I typically have a 40pip max stop...how long do you typically hang on (or the maximum) before you call quits? i was thinking maybe have a much greater tolerance than I do. thanks.
I only show results/analysis after the trade. Based upon my own experience, I don't think showing open trades, or following experts signals, etc., helps a trader learn how to be successful. What eventually turned my own trading around was when I left all that behind and through long practice and chart study, began to understand what it took to be more consistently in the winning column vs. the losing column. That is what I share in my charts and analysis. P.S. I sometimes show charts without commentary. Hopefully traders will study these charts and the areas I diagram with arrows and circles, etc., to see how I arrive at a setup/trade. There are patterns and setups up that repeat themselves over and over--not every day--but patterns and setups you should be able to begin to recognize on your own with practice.
As I've written many times, I usually place a stop loss at breakeven after the trade has moved in my favor 30 pips or so. If the move reverses and stops me out at breakeven, I often stop trading for the session. I'll jump right back in if trend momentum looks like it's going to take off for real after all.
P.S. Remember, I don't trade every day like I used to: The market has changed and there are less 100+ pips opportunities in a given trading week. I bide my time watching, waiting to catch a trend with compelling momentum.
