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GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

  • #501
  • Sep 8, 2010 6:30am Sep 8, 2010 6:30am
Quoting Stocky Monk
Yesterdays Bank Hol PA got GU back below 5471....Given we are between 5471 and 5318 a buying area in my eyes I would expect us to range and accumulate before reversing...It will not be easy and thats for sure as it has already proven. Only 2 areas im looking to set medium term long is 5471 and 5318 zone. Stops are moved to b/e soon as trade is +40/50. Given we are back below 5471 I will wait for 4hrly and daily close above 5471 before going long Or price to trade down to 5318 May monthly high. In the mean time there are plenty of intraday levels...
Hi All,

Sorry for the lack of posts but I have been sticking to buying 5320 zone and selling 5471 as per previous posts.....Hardly even scalping in between the two as im preferring to let the chop settle once the market has formed a bottom around this area we are currently trading (5471-5318). I usually find there will be adverse rash movement in price induced by the bigger players before a bottom is formed just to clear traders stops....A break below 5318 /50% fib at 5114 will negate my long term analysis but until then my bias remains long around 5471 and 5318.

I have attached a daily chart....shows volume clearly dropping since the 24th Aug which shows selling interest is falling around this level...first sign to a bottom formation. Yesterdays candle is the first candle formed on increased volume since the 24th and it had formed at 5318 as a doji. The steady bearish movement since the 12th Aug has formed a price trap formation using 5318 as support....a daily hold outside this to the upside will be a good signal we are going to have a bullish run. Beware of fakeouts on lower TF's.

Stocky
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  • #502
  • Sep 8, 2010 7:32am Sep 8, 2010 7:32am
Hi Stocky,

Nice analysis - although not supportive of my position taken yesterday, a position that is currently laughing at me from behind red shutters. Pff... life goes on.

Regardless, will let this bugger run its course.

Happily spending my time rendering an old wall at home, and so allowing others the space to post here.

Come on regulars, throw some confusion into the pot!
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #503
  • Sep 8, 2010 8:00am Sep 8, 2010 8:00am
Quoting 45Condor
Hi Stocky,

Nice analysis - although not supportive of my position taken yesterday, a position that is currently laughing at me from behind red shutters. Pff... life goes on.

Regardless, will let this bugger run its course.

Happily spending my time rendering an old wall at home, and so allowing others the space to post here.

Come on regulars, throw some confusion into the pot!
Hi 45Condor,

Thanks mate....hope the analysis highlights another angle for you...

I see you went short around 5370 area....I can see why you may have done that on a intraday basis however for me shorting or going long anywhere other than support and res of the daily range is a big No at the moment. We are currently accumulating on a daily basis bewteen 5471 and 5318. Therefore I would continue to trade the range until its broken.....More often than not I like yourself will be buying and selling the intraday levels even within a range this size but for me there is just too much chop and misdirection at the moment hence why I havent posted much....To increase the odds on your trade buy supp and sell resistance.......Like I said I have long bias but if there is anymore downside left in this which is more than possible I wouldnt be suprised to see a fake breakout of the top of the highlighted daily price trap and have price shove lower to break the 5318 level once everyones switched long....Unfortunately as you know we cant do much about that and have to play the trade as its presented. Sensible stops is the only way not to get hurt which to me means buying and selling the top of the daily range.

Anyway hope it works out ok for you....im out of my long from 5318 when we hit 5471 this morning.....if we trade back to your position which is what this range should do then maybe your could re-consider your entry. I wouldnt make any drastic adjustments yet. The only thing that tells me we are going to break soon out this daily range is the volume analysis on my last post....I reckon within the next day or so?????

Stocky
  • #504
  • Sep 8, 2010 8:53am Sep 8, 2010 8:53am
We're in a range, aren't we? 1.5350 - 1.5450. I mean just between 1.53 and 1.54. In my opinion we are being held up by strong monthly support at 1.52 - 1.53 but it won't be long before this is violated again, probably on a day which starts with Dow futures down. We can see on the seventh that 1.53 was tested with a dip to 1.5296.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If this week will finish above 1.55 then I see that as a bullish move, but while we are in this range anyone opening trades above the hourly time frame might be waiting a long time. If we taught a dog to play the piano, would its Bach be worse than its bite? (just put that in to see if anyone reads this rubbish). Anyway I'm flat at the moment.
Gone to a better place
  • #505
  • Sep 8, 2010 9:20am Sep 8, 2010 9:20am
last hourly candle a bullish engulfer with a close just above 5471 and just outside the daily/4hrly price trap TL. If we can clear R2 and 1.55 this could be a solid attempt for breaking out this range.

Also expect plenty of stops around here so we may see increased momentum if there hit.

Stocky
  • #506
  • Sep 8, 2010 9:30am Sep 8, 2010 9:30am
...thought I would have a quick look in. Yes, I read, Smikester. More of a cello man myself... what with Elgar and Jacqueline du Pré.

Anyway, looks like my position will be for the chop rather soon.

Edit... Noticed on a different chart with certain EMAs, that the Daily 20 is about to cross south of the Daily 50 - the latter of which is beginning a curve south. The question I would ask is; is this move up today just a retrace reaction to the cross, prior to a move south? As you state, Stocky, we are seeing decreasing volumes, dojis and are bound within a choppy range. Hmm, may let my one position do its thing, and stay out for this week whilst the money men formulate their plan for the coming month or so.

Didn't someone say that statistical analysis showed that September is traditionally a down month for Cable?
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #507
  • Sep 8, 2010 9:35am Sep 8, 2010 9:35am
I'm not sure. It was a bullish engulfer but only on the H1 and doesn't carry much weight. For me the 8am candle spoke volumes. This is the third effort at reaching 1.55 this month. I expect a ton of sell orders if we get there. In fact, I'm going to short here misself.
Gone to a better place
  • #508
  • Sep 8, 2010 9:38am Sep 8, 2010 9:38am
Quoting Stocky Monk
GU rockets up from a much better than expected NFP figure...for those who are confused this is how I see it....This shows the market makers are still wanting to buy sterling even of the back of a better NFP figure.....

The spike up is induced by the opposite of' 'flight to saftey' concept....trader selling US bonds and buying higher risk equities of the back of stronger employement figures....if enough traders pull out of US bonds simulatenously this causes dollar weakness and equities rise.

Will be interesting to see if we can break 5471

Stocky...
Yes, yes and yes.
Gone to a better place
  • #509
  • Sep 8, 2010 9:40am Sep 8, 2010 9:40am
Back to the rendering... have good one to all currently in.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #510
  • Sep 8, 2010 9:41am Sep 8, 2010 9:41am
Quoting smikester
I'm not sure. It was a bullish engulfer but only on the H1 and doesn't carry much weight. For me the 8am candle spoke volumes. This is the third effort at reaching 1.55 this month. I expect a ton of sell orders if we get there. In fact, I'm going to short here misself.
good luck shorting...the range is still valid so theres no reason not to...Ive shorted this range twice so will not tempt fate as I have a long bias and see this breaking very soon. I have my finger waiting to trigger a long position soon as I see a valid break above 5490 and R2.

Stocky
  • #511
  • Sep 8, 2010 9:56am Sep 8, 2010 9:56am
Quoting Stocky Monk
I have my finger waiting to trigger a long position soon as I see a valid break above 5490 and R2.

Stocky
Thanks Stocky. That sounds like a good idea as well. Do you have R2 as 1.5485? I do not use these much. I suppose I should.
Gone to a better place
  • #512
  • Sep 8, 2010 10:12am Sep 8, 2010 10:12am
Wow... Hope you caught that. And if today can close over 55 then I have 5750 as the next significant resistance level. What do you think of that?
Gone to a better place
  • #513
  • Sep 9, 2010 12:18am Sep 9, 2010 12:18am
Quoting Stocky Monk
Hi All,

Sorry for the lack of posts but I have been sticking to buying 5320 zone and selling 5471 as per previous posts.....Hardly even scalping in between the two as im preferring to let the chop settle once the market has formed a bottom around this area we are currently trading (5471-5318). I usually find there will be adverse rash movement in price induced by the bigger players before a bottom is formed just to clear traders stops....A break below 5318 /50% fib at 5114 will negate my long term analysis but until then my bias remains long...
nice analysis

looking at the same thing at the moment.
noticed the macd diverging up for almost 2 weeks now.
keeping my fingers crossed....
love reading your posts.
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  • #514
  • Sep 9, 2010 12:53am Sep 9, 2010 12:53am
I intend to continue with the rendering of my wall today… there is something very satisfying about putting in 12-ish hours (still sunny and warm here) of manual labour, and then sleeping like a log.

News this week comes thick and fast. What, with not too unexpected revelations of banks cheating on the disclosures of the recent EU bank stress tests.

German manufacturing exports falling.

Bond purchases in Portugal being extremely expensive, and thus confirming that country's probable slide.

PIMCO declaring their expectation that Greece will default on their debt repayments.

The Irish Government closing down Anglo-Irish bank.

The list of bad news goes on.

Short Euro from 1.2740, TP 1.2330, SL 1.2785


Earlier Cable trade stopped out.
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Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #515
  • Sep 10, 2010 3:41am Sep 10, 2010 3:41am
Stuck on the daily 200ma and in a daily range this pair doesn't look very interesting to anyone but scalpers at the moment. But I have been examining the pair for clues and I have come up with this chart. As usual my chart is simple but, to me it says a lot. After a tussle with the 1.54, for me a very important level, we had a bullish daily candle two days ago off the rejection of the fib level.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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So, all we have to do is wait for an hourly close above the flag upper trendline, or, more conservatively, a strong close above 1.55, then it's foot to the floor to 1.6.

If this is a flag formation then a strong close above 1.6 is the safest entry and will give us a target of at least 1.7. (What do you mean you want the money now?) It's the well known "hobby horse" formation. I'm looking for a break out above the right nostril.
Gone to a better place
  • #516
  • Sep 10, 2010 7:35am Sep 10, 2010 7:35am
Quoting Stocky Monk
good luck shorting...the range is still valid so theres no reason not to...Ive shorted this range twice so will not tempt fate as I have a long bias and see this breaking very soon. I have my finger waiting to trigger a long position soon as I see a valid break above 5490 and R2.

Stocky
Hello Stocky, I am new to this thread, IbKa recommended it. It looks like people here watch the larger trends & only trade within them between the extremes of the ranges ... a safer way to go & lately I have been gravitating towards this approach as well.
I'll be watching to see how things play out with this pair, especially in the light of smikester's 'well-known hobby horse' pattern (which I had never heard of!). 1.70 possible to the upside? That would be spectacular. Looking forward to some keen analysis & hope to contribute something as well.

(Linda)
******************* I'd rather make money than be right.
  • #517
  • Sep 10, 2010 10:23am Sep 10, 2010 10:23am
Quoting smikester
Wow... Hope you caught that. And if today can close over 55 then I have 5750 as the next significant resistance level. What do you think of that?
Hi Mike,

Sorry for the delayed response again...Im just atticipating a break of the price trap 5471/5490 area at the moment....Only scalping the range extremes and trying to setup a medium term long which is proving difficult.

Yes I did catch that break the other day...I setup longs at 5454 and 5475....managed to bank one of them during the small distribution which was formed around 5520 and the other stopped out at b/e even....It has been hard trying catch the true break and I ve had few position turn back on me and stop out at b/e some at a small loss but aslong as I double up with tight stops theres usually a good scalp taken along side any medium term trade setup which makes it less painful for stop out.

Anyway hope its going well....this range has to give sometime soon.

Stocky
  • #518
  • Sep 10, 2010 10:28am Sep 10, 2010 10:28am
Quoting 4xStar
Hello Stocky, I am new to this thread, IbKa recommended it. It looks like people here watch the larger trends & only trade within them between the extremes of the ranges ... a safer way to go & lately I have been gravitating towards this approach as well.
I'll be watching to see how things play out with this pair, especially in the light of smikester's 'well-known hobby horse' pattern (which I had never heard of!). 1.70 possible to the upside? That would be spectacular. Looking forward to some keen analysis & hope to contribute something as well....
Hi Linda,

Welcome to the thread....Its a pretty mixed bunch here on all different llevels of experience....scalpers, medium term traders, swing traders....etc etc so the analysis is pretty diverse. Im usually more active on the thread but due to price action there nothing much to talk about until this range gives....we all know about selling resistance and buying support which is all im doing at the moment at the range extremes....well anticipating a break to the upside also lol

Look forward to your analysis

Stocky
  • #519
  • Sep 10, 2010 10:31am Sep 10, 2010 10:31am
Quoting pkimnyc
nice analysis

looking at the same thing at the moment.
noticed the macd diverging up for almost 2 weeks now.
keeping my fingers crossed....
love reading your posts.
Hi pkimnyc,

Glad you enjoy the analysis....feel free to join anytime.

Look forward to some posts from you.

Stocky
  • #520
  • Sep 10, 2010 11:10am Sep 10, 2010 11:10am
Chart re-cap for the week......not much has changed since last week other than we have accumulated between 5318 and 5471 area for 9 sold days....A break has got to be on the cards soon....Lot of volume has been traded around these levels which makes these levels all the more important when break and come to retest them...they will make ideal places to setup medium term trades.

I have attached a weekly, Daily, 4hr and Daily MP chart.

Last 4 weekly candles have ended up as dojis which outlines the market is in a definite decision phase whilst approaching 5470/ 5300 area hence the range we have fell into over the last 9 days.

VSA: Last weekly candle was a Low volume test of 5318 level...will be interesting to see if we generate a high volume churn or a climax bar next week.

Daily chart shows the price trap formation we are currently in. This process of funnelling price into a tight space means pressure or call it volume is going to build up and eventually cause strong momentum upon the break.

4hr shows that price has violated the trendline on numerous occasions over the last few days which for me means the market is wanting to break higher....these price violations of the trendline and 5471 are just weakening the area we need to penetrate. Given we clear 5471/5300 area next week we have single prints situated between 5592 and 5621 which will be prime targets...there is 4hrly resistance at 5577 and 5670/5700.

Alternate scenario we break below 5300 and a target the 50% fib of the rise since May 2010 at 5110.

Hope everyone has a good weekend

Stocky

COT data out later....will be interesting to see if the institutions net positioning has altered.
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