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James16 is not credible

  • #221
  • Sep 8, 2010 2:22pm Sep 8, 2010 2:22pm
Quoting raczekfx
lol...No, not at all..

I'm wrong more times, than I'm right...
You don't want to follow wrong... !
You have to change marketing my friend. Lets start with claiming 90% hit rate
  • #222
  • Sep 8, 2010 2:28pm Sep 8, 2010 2:28pm
Quoting StephanusR
....sigh.... after reading all of that i thought you were going to post his actual trading statements. Amazing how many sock puppets james must have posting all sorts of nonsense. Everything but the one thing he must present: his actual trading statements.

First chart I looked on and hey presto, a failed pin bar on weekly
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No man is smart, except by comparison to those who know less!
  • #223
  • Sep 8, 2010 2:31pm Sep 8, 2010 2:31pm
Quoting strangemartian
First chart I looked on and hey presto, a failed pin bar on weekly
That is not a pinbar to play, its not pretty.

You have huge moves against you, the wick doesn't extend very nice out the bottom, and it closed bearish.
This is not the type of bar we are taught to play.
  • #224
  • Sep 8, 2010 2:32pm Sep 8, 2010 2:32pm
Quoting Mr Smith
That is not a pinbar to play, its not pretty for many reasons.
Explain why. And dont say cause it aint extended because if had played out then it would have been but it didnt.

It is no better or worse a pinbar than the charts you posted but you only posted them because they worked out.
No man is smart, except by comparison to those who know less!
  • #225
  • Sep 8, 2010 2:36pm Sep 8, 2010 2:36pm
Because of such heavy moves down, that pin needed to be alot bigger and nicer to consider playing. That is not a pretty pinbar, if it had spiked down a bit more and closed bullish then we can consider it being a good pinbar. That is a B or b minus

If you think this is all fine and dandy after the fact talk, then take your pins you find, before they break, take them over to mike and jarroo on the free thread, and ask them before the fact what they think, and you'll start to see how good this material, and how good the help is you get there, all for free.

EDIT: Take them to many members over there, ghous, pipmyride, kiss and many others that will help you before the fact.
  • #226
  • Sep 8, 2010 2:38pm Sep 8, 2010 2:38pm
THe only way I personally woulda played that weekly pin, would have been a dirty little entry on lower tf, trying to get in with a small risk stop, but I didn't play that on smaller tf at all, but I do play some bars like that on smaller tf, often times I get a b/e, but sometimes it pays off and catch the big run.
  • #227
  • Sep 8, 2010 2:42pm Sep 8, 2010 2:42pm
Are you even looking at the right pin. The last bar on chart is not what I am looking at but either of the previous bars were potential pins, the second last especially.

And saying the bar closed bearish, well yes it did but look at chart 2 you posted and that closed bullish and you would have traded that down.

Explain to me the difference....

Make your mind up.
No man is smart, except by comparison to those who know less!
  • #228
  • Sep 8, 2010 2:43pm Sep 8, 2010 2:43pm
Seriously, anyone new being put off by this thread, go over to the free forum, read, learn, then show your trades before they trigger and get feedback.
  • #229
  • Sep 8, 2010 2:45pm Sep 8, 2010 2:45pm
yes the pound one did close bullish, but look at the overall picture there, it's quite different, there is a much nicer extension, longer wick protuding out the top, the echf trade did not protude deep enuf out the bottom, esp considering the heavy large weekly bars prior to it. There was talk about this bar before the fact as far as I remember as well.
  • #230
  • Sep 8, 2010 2:46pm Sep 8, 2010 2:46pm
If you cannot see the diff, you haven't studied james material enuf, and ran over it with mike etc enuf, spend 10 mins a day studying pins and going over them with mike and you'll start to see a clearer picture of what we are looking for. But even if the echf was a perfect pin, some of them do fail, but esp on weekly, when there really nice, they very rarely fail, compared to how many win.
  • #231
  • Sep 8, 2010 2:53pm Sep 8, 2010 2:53pm
There is other reasons for the diff, pound had alot, of long term divergence, where as echf did not, echf was really just to much of a falling knife to take with such small bar compared to whats going on. It's very basic stuff if you take the time to learn it, if you add divergence to the mix it will help you filter out some of the losses as well, not all losses, of course there is some losses.

I would strongly suggest again, if your at all interested in pins, take your pins to mike etc over on the free and ask before they break, take you a few mins here and there, nothing to lose doing that.
  • #232
  • Sep 8, 2010 2:55pm Sep 8, 2010 2:55pm
Not that this is needed, but sometimes I look to the monthly as well, for the echf trade there is a crazy monthly beob against you, anyway, if you hav any other pins that you would like help explaining why they failed, shoot, some of them will likely be legit bars, and some of them not. All in the learning process.
  • #233
  • Sep 8, 2010 2:56pm Sep 8, 2010 2:56pm
HAHAH, sorry guys, looks like I"m taking over the thread.
  • #234
  • Sep 8, 2010 2:57pm Sep 8, 2010 2:57pm
ANyone want to join my signal service, it's only $500 per month.
  • #235
  • Sep 8, 2010 2:59pm Sep 8, 2010 2:59pm
Oh look at that, I Just went to the free thread, and mike is giving advice before the fact on setups someone posted asking for help.
  • #236
  • Sep 8, 2010 3:01pm Sep 8, 2010 3:01pm
what the hell is a pinbar ?
lowest draw down possible please.
  • #237
  • Sep 8, 2010 3:02pm Sep 8, 2010 3:02pm
Pin bars do work and I trade them sometimes on 4hr but only with other boxes ticked but I dont follow the religiously.

I read J16 thread start to finish when I started out just over 3 years ago and I learnt a lot from him and also Jacko and BRV. But I never felt the need to pay for any service from anyone as its all available for free, its up to you to put it all together.
If people have been scammed (and I dont think J16 is a scammer) then I believe it is because they are lazy and want to be told what to do rather than piecing it all together themselves.
J16 is running a business and the material he is giving people is old hat and can be found all over the web if you look hard enough but people want it all now on a plate.
No man is smart, except by comparison to those who know less!
  • #238
  • Sep 8, 2010 3:05pm Sep 8, 2010 3:05pm
Quoting strangemartian
Pin bars do work and I trade them sometimes on 4hr but only with other boxes ticked but I dont follow the religiously.

I read J16 thread start to finish when I started out just over 3 years ago and I learnt a lot from him and also Jacko and BRV. But I never felt the need to pay for any service from anyone as its all available for free, its up to you to put it all together.
If people have been scammed (and I dont think J16 is a scammer)...
THat's true, for me, I could not string the info together, james helped me do that for free, it's true it is just old time PA that's been around forever, that is free all of the show, but nobody gives it out for free in any kind of organised fashion, then on top of that, I get free help along the way when I need it, sure you can find all the pa setups for free, etc etc, but nobody on those sites will sit down with you and show you in a practical way how to trade them, or give advice on setups before they unfold.
  • #239
  • Sep 8, 2010 3:17pm Sep 8, 2010 3:17pm
Quoting supremeChaos
i've re-read his post & u seem to have overlooked this part

25 + 5 = ?

but let's scratch that for awhile.
assuming u are correct that he is inconsistent, can u not accept it as a honest mistake?
assuming u are correct that he is inconsistent, can u not accept that he's being humble, meaning he does have 30/30+ yrs experience, but prefers to profess 'only 20/25+ yrs' to others he speak to/interact with (& in the process he slips & says 25yrs & at other times 30yrs)?
these are the possibilities for me.
I guess it's splitting hairs on the 30 vs 25, but the other point of the question is what was he doing for the majority of that time? Why does he keep using it as a point of reference if it's not backed up? The admission that he became profitable 5 years ago is also rather perplexing, so he was at this for 25 years on an unprofitable basis?

Also, going back to sales tactics, the aura of superiority that such a declarative statement makes is rather telling. It's in essence, a "don't you dare argue with me" line, meant to quell doubt. The fact that he admits 25 years of it was unprofitable sort of the defeats the purpose however.

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if i remember correctly, his private forum was borne out of requests. merlin discussed it with him, James16 said 'no' for a few months, James deliberated, then finally took it on. & it grew from there.
This seems to be the general story, however like almost all things on the internet, it's purely conjecture. And of course it plays right into the humble/passionate-pursuit sales tactic.

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regarding the hobby-business 'disconnect'/'misrepresentation'/'inadmission', i can understand his perspective: he never intended it to be a business; he never planned it..... he viewed it as a 'hobby'. i believe this is an issue of perspective - his perspective of the private group & your perspective about it. Each person's perspective differs & James calling (& internalizing) the business as 'hobby' is absolutely not surprising. just like in trading, perspective is abundant.
This 'hobby' perspective is probably the reason why he abhors...
Trading is a business. Mentoring for a fee is a business. You can be passionate about either one, doesn't make them any more of a hobby or any less of a business.

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do u not believe James16 is a humble helper/white knight? regardless of your answer, i would understand. Perspective.
In real life, who knows? On the internet? Absolutely. It drives business.

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he mentions his family from time to time. that's part of being human, right?
also, i think he feels FF is 'part of his family' so he shares his private life & private views/emotions from time to time. & i welcome that (talking about non-trading stuff sometimes, to reduce stress/boredom brought about by trading & to 'add life' to our daily interactions here).
There's a fine line between casual discussion of family, and outright using them as a sympathy vote (and an indirect sales tactic). You know where I feel he is relative to that line. The bleeding heart tale of "this post brought me to tears, my wife is furious, and we're under constant threat of attack" is tip-toeing into the realm of the absurd..

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if edge does not exists in pinbars or whatever he teaches, why are some people successful with it?
Define successful with it. Where are the long-term successful? I imagine his method, like most of this industry, relies heavily upon new entrant churn. At any given time, there will appear to be those are successful it. However, over the long-term, the success rate likely drops towards zero.

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if edge does not exists in pinbars or whatever he teaches, can u tell us where we can find an edge?
Verifiable long-term edge? It's a short list, RenTec Medallion Fund among others.

Short-term edges come and go, as traders it's our responsibility to spot them when they occur and profit as much as possible while they remain. It's exceedingly difficult. The Barclay CTA Currency Index (about the only thing truly verifiable in this entire industry, and that's with ~60% of CTAs reporting) shows just how difficult this business of FX trading really is.

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Last 2 questions:
do u believe in altruism?
do u believe altruism (either partial or full altruism) is still being practiced these days?
Yes and yes. But do no confuse altruism when money is involved in any way, shape or form.

Many failed traders and successful traders enter the mentoring business b/c it's very good money (6-7 figures is not unusual), and unlike trading, it's very consistent income.

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Thank you for giving me a chance to exchange thoughts with u & speak my mind. u rarely/never post in FF threads i frequent (u are already in a much higher trading league, im way below your class, so i dont get a chance to ask u questions... yet), & this is my only chance for now, so i took it, & seriously it's an honor, Sir. (no matter what your perspective is)
It's been a pleasure, and a thought-provoking discussion. My apologies for being so blunt & direct, it's just my nature.
  • #240
  • Sep 8, 2010 3:45pm Sep 8, 2010 3:45pm
Quoting flotsom
I stayed well away from the thread when I realised it was all based on an arbitrary and insignificant shape plotted on a chart
...
The obvious irrelevance of the pin bar as having any statistical advantage aside
....
If he claims that a pin bar has a statistical advantage, I would say he's talking nonsense
....
BUT.... if he's saying you can use a pin bar as a reason to enter the market in either direction..well that as far as I'm concerned is as good a method as any other...
(my emphasis added)

Rather interesting logical leap. You state repeatedly that pinbars have no statistical advantage (thus, they're random). You then argue that they can be profitable, as a random arbitrary entry point with a managed exit. By extending that logic, every random arbitrary entry point with a managed exit would constitute a profitable system. Of course that's not the case.

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His service could even be of value if the student following his wisdom investigates the method and realises it's complete nonsense. One way to success is to find and rule out all the unprofitable methods until eventually you're left with a winner. If you can add the J16 method to the list of unprofitable strategies, then you are one step closer to becoming a profitable trader. You could very well view that lesson as well worth the monthly membership fee.
Given that there is an infinite number of potential trading strategies, eliminating 1 from a pool of infinity has zero net value.

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He could very well be making $100Million or even significantly more per year from trading, and the forum money is nothing more than a nice new car each year and a nice summer vacation.
I have grave doubts that anyone worth 9 figures is frequenting internet message boards & fretting about unfriendly naysayers. Logical leaps, for better or for worse, are not my forté.

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I have to admit I will always tend to side with the argument that anyone charging such a low fee to mentor people in trading, is very likely an unsuccessful trader and actually make their living from "teaching" other people how to trade rather than getting on with trading themselves. It does seem ludicrous to me that anyone making hundreds of millions or even as little as tens of millions each year from trading, would ever waste their time trying to help strangers on the net.
Now we're on the same page.
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