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vsa with Malcolm

  • #3,541
  • Sep 8, 2010 5:51am Sep 8, 2010 5:51am
Quoting foxybunny
Hi Intel,

3 bars before you bar with the question "Would we short".
That 3 bars before is a Down Wide Bar with Close on its Low, and High Volume, looks like an "Effort to Fall".
And the "Effort to Fall" low is near the low of the previous swing showing possible near bottom.
The next 2 bars after "Effort to Fall" were Up Bars, this showed "Effort to Fall" failed, giving Strength in background.
Better to look for Long than Short, since there is Strength in Background.

Like your Q&A.
Hope by answering will help to understand VSA better....
Good answer Foxy. Keep um comin.
  • #3,542
  • Edited 6:13am Sep 8, 2010 5:56am | Edited 6:13am
Quoting Intel
Would it surprise you all to know that, when I place a trade I have no clue as to what my R:R is? Further more, I don't care either!!!!

Thats one of the many reasons that VSA rocks!!!
I agree with that, although it helps keeping some discipline... or it might not?
That is what I've been beginning to think in the last couple of weeks.

I might have to update my rules a bit.
Say I sold and strength clearly came in (even if I was only -10 pips) I should exit immediately. If I was in positive, I should hold onto it until strength clearly came in.
So this results in variable targets both SL & TP - I guess that's what you say Intel (?)

***Edit*** Kind of dynamic R/R ratio, reacting immediately to the ever changing market conditions. My worry is that I exited too often too early, entered the opposite direction only to be stopped out again.
  • #3,543
  • Sep 8, 2010 5:58am Sep 8, 2010 5:58am
Quoting Intel
GU M15
GU M15

Update
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  • #3,544
  • Sep 8, 2010 6:11am Sep 8, 2010 6:11am
Quoting hsa013
I agree with that, although it helps keeping some discipline... or it might not?
That is what I've been beginning to think in the last couple of weeks.

I might have to update my rules a bit.
Say I sold and strength clearly came in (even if I was only -10 pips) I should exit immediately. If I was in positive, I should hold onto it until strength clearly came in.
So this results in variable targets both SL & TP - I guess that's what you say Intel (?)
Yes you are mostly correct.

VSA kindly shows you where to put your SL in most cases. So your SL is set. When trading vsa, you generally stay in the trade until you see signs of your move faultering. Sometimes if you have made a lot of profit you may decide to exit some or all of the trade but, I would suggest that at this point most of the time your R:R is small enough to make it inconsiquential.

I know that not everyone trades this way and for good reason. You should only set SLs this way when you are confident you can read the setups correctly.
  • #3,545
  • Sep 8, 2010 6:15am Sep 8, 2010 6:15am
Quoting Intel
GU M15

Update
I've sold above those indicated NDs, around 1.5440... only to be stopped 20 pips later.
Sure, some will say I should have waited some more, or placed the SL above the UT - it's so much easier in insight

I'll tell you one thing, my trading sucks big time lately... and it might be also related to what you were saying:
I used to trade for small gains of 5 to 20 pips, and had an 80% to 90% hit rate;
It's curious to note that it's when I started to try to adapt an go for a R:R of 1:1 to 1:3, that my success started to drop drastically - I might not be cut off for that kind of trades.
  • #3,546
  • Sep 8, 2010 6:17am Sep 8, 2010 6:17am
Quoting Intel
I would suggest that at this point most of the time your R:R is small enough to make it inconsiquential.
Sorry Intel could you please elaborate on this particular sentence? What exactly did you mean?
Many thanks
  • #3,547
  • Sep 8, 2010 6:21am Sep 8, 2010 6:21am
Hi intel!

Its very good to have you here and look how you analyze the trades. Please keep it up! Really valuable for us us, who are learning the VSA.
If you have time and would like to help us, who are learning how VSA work, then please visit my thread, everyone is welcomed who can and would like to help
  • #3,548
  • Sep 8, 2010 6:24am Sep 8, 2010 6:24am
I have this feeling that EJ is going to drop.. A breach of 105.10 could take us to 100.65 in a a couple of days i.e if it doesn't happen today.

Lower timeframe charts (H1 & M15) showing weakness in background...

Let's see how it goes.

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  • #3,549
  • Sep 8, 2010 6:39am Sep 8, 2010 6:39am
Quoting hsa013
Sorry Intel could you please elaborate on this particular sentence? What exactly did you mean?
Many thanks
The key is in the part of the sentence you missed......

'Sometimes if you have made a lot of profit you may decide to exit some or all of the trade'

When setting SL with VSA they are not normally far away. So, if you've already made A LOT OF PROFIT then your Risk Reward ratio will already be very small eg 1:4 or 1:5.

Check out the chart below. Entry is at 130.52 SL is set a couple of pips above the UT at 130.66 so Risk is 14 pips.

If you then exited at the 1st sign of possible trouble at the 'stalling' point(even tho you could justifyably stay in the trade at this point) at 129.93, your Reward is 73 pips.

This gives a R:R of 14:73 or approx 1:5. But you could have said to yourself 'oooooohhhhhhh I've made 60 pips already....thats enough for me I'm off'

Then your R:R is 14:60 or approx 1:4.

This scenario is very common with VSA, you very quickly make more pips than you risk.....when you've read the chart correctly.
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  • #3,550
  • Sep 8, 2010 6:46am Sep 8, 2010 6:46am
Quoting Intel
Then your R:R is 14:60 or approx 1:4.
This scenario is very common with VSA, you very quickly make more pips than you risk.....when you've read the chart correctly.
Intel,
I see what you mean, thanks.
It takes a lot of experience to differentiate these big moves from small ones. Whether it'll end up in a range or fold out in a nice trend.
Anyway, I've already learnt a lot from you guys and won't give up!
  • #3,551
  • Sep 8, 2010 6:56am Sep 8, 2010 6:56am
Quoting tonirai
I've sold above those indicated NDs, around 1.5440... only to be stopped 20 pips later.
Re-shorted GU @1.5463, not only because it has shown signs of weakness before, but because it is retesting the top of the channel (visible in H4) on low volume.
The previous UT was also a false break of that channel.
It has to dip under 1.5445 to confirm immediate weakness - 1.5410 being the next possible support area.
(Sorry, can't post chart).
  • #3,552
  • Sep 8, 2010 7:02am Sep 8, 2010 7:02am
Quoting hsa013
Intel,
I see what you mean, thanks.
It takes a lot of experience to differentiate these big moves from small ones. Whether it'll end up in a range or fold out in a nice trend.
Anyway, I've already learnt a lot from you guys and won't give up!
The point is that with vsa YOU DONT HAVE TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN BIG MOVES AND SMALL MOVES. Stay in the trade until either you have made enough pips or vsa tells you that the move has likely finished, then get out however much you have made.

If you're in a small move vsa will tell you its finished quite early. If your in a big move, vsa wont tell you to get out until much later. Just let vsa tell you.
  • #3,553
  • Sep 8, 2010 7:55am Sep 8, 2010 7:55am
Quoting tonirai
Re-shorted GU @1.5463, not only because it has shown signs of weakness before, but because it is retesting the top of the channel (visible in H4) on low volume.
The previous UT was also a false break of that channel.
It has to dip under 1.5445 to confirm immediate weakness - 1.5410 being the next possible support area.
(Sorry, can't post chart).
gu could get messy here

in channel 5400 to 5500

above last weeks close 1.5440 , in that zone

daily futures showing possible stopping vol (140 k volume yesterday on a doji)

right now looking for test 5400 and will only sell under that , let this top works it self out

in the mean time trading es ...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #3,554
  • Sep 8, 2010 7:56am Sep 8, 2010 7:56am
It seems that RR is dependent on how you are using vsa. I am using it with SR and its the SR that dictates my RR. I may then use volume to manage my trade but one of my rules for entry is that there has to be a minimum 3:1 Reward Risk based on supply and demand zones. Malcolm talks alot about RR as a condition for a good trade. I agree it is good discipline and is good MM.
  • #3,555
  • Sep 8, 2010 8:25am Sep 8, 2010 8:25am
Anyone have this? Any good?
Thanks
  • #3,556
  • Sep 8, 2010 8:37am Sep 8, 2010 8:37am
My take is we have been waiting for this to head long for sometime now. Could this be it? Price has tested the 38 % fib level drawn off the Daily twice now and failed. Something smells here, guys.

Jim
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  • #3,557
  • Sep 8, 2010 9:55am Sep 8, 2010 9:55am
eu 30 plays out again ....nice

stopping vol inside bar 1st bottom
then higher low with stopping vol

very nice trade

also long es working after low vol up day on dxd ... I have been watching daily etfs in addition to indexes for signs of weakness and strength

1.2770 is resistance on daily charts


skype chat with another trader
[6:01:31 AM] malcolm britton: check out 30 min
[6:01:40 AM] malcolm britton: clear buyers
[6:01:42 AM] malcolm britton: 1.2680

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #3,558
  • Sep 8, 2010 10:06am Sep 8, 2010 10:06am
so lets look at 2 things...

weekly eu futures ... think if there was really an issue in europe right now chart would look like this ?

and now for how the hell do they mark down eu to loads up ..... ' greek sovereign debt news an issue of course'

long term I am pretty bullish eu into 1.3500

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Quoting malcolmb14
eu 30 plays out again ....nice

stopping vol inside bar 1st bottom
then higher low with stopping vol

very nice trade

also long es working after low vol up day on dxd ... I have been watching daily etfs in addition to indexes for signs of weakness and strength

1.2770 is resistance on daily charts


skype chat with another trader
[6:01:31 AM] malcolm britton: check out 30 min
[6:01:40 AM] malcolm britton: clear buyers
[6:01:42 AM] malcolm britton: 1.2680

Attachment
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #3,559
  • Sep 8, 2010 10:22am Sep 8, 2010 10:22am
Here's EU 15m, does this look like profit taking or real selling? There's climactic action, no demand, and an high volume upthrust
Attached Image
  • #3,560
  • Sep 8, 2010 10:23am Sep 8, 2010 10:23am
Here is a longer term chart, we're at an important level also.
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