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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #18,761
  • Edited 3:39am Sep 8, 2010 3:29am | Edited 3:39am
Quoting MaMood
So far it went not too bad for my long troops.
Squarred around 8369.
Now switched to short.

Just for info:
I'm a very very short term dancer.
What is the 5 min or 15 min for most of you is the 1 min chart for me ....

Edit: And ready for my next level short attack ....
Hi mamood,

did i miss something, i am still short with EJ and EU... any reason for you shift?

regards,
dongsky

edit* sorry mamood, my mistake, i thought you're trading EU... just realize you're with your lady, UJ
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #18,762
  • Sep 8, 2010 3:36am Sep 8, 2010 3:36am
Quoting MaMood
So far it went not too bad for my long troops.
Squarred around 8369.
Now switched to short.

Just for info:
I'm a very very short term dancer.
What is the 5 min or 15 min for most of you is the 1 min chart for me ....

Edit: And ready for my next level short attack ....
Hi MaMood

lightning warrior ...
quickly fight = you do not have to wait "all day" for rescue ... or two day
Happy dance

Rgs
  • #18,763
  • Sep 8, 2010 3:37am Sep 8, 2010 3:37am
Quoting dongsky
Hi mamood,

did i miss something, i am still short with EJ and EU... any reason for you shift?

regards,
dongsky

edit*

Hi Dongsky,

no - nothing special.
It was just my very short reading of USDJPY PA and related pairs.

Just right now the GB Manufactoring Production was allmost inline. So I have to wait if market sentiment will change. Therefor I'm monitoring the DOW. It made a little move up, but makret seems to see it as a non event ...

If USDJPY is going up to 8385 and above I'll do most probable a leveragred flip ....

But we have to wait and see ...

edit: To give some more details and reduce possible confusion with my comments ...

I started with a long scout around 8350 area (slightly long bias based on the Asian session low this morning ...)
I added some troops around 8354 and rode the move up to 8370 area.
than I switched to short and went down to 8361 area.
Then price went up again and I prepared for a new short attack, which I deployed from 8370 again ...
Removed that attack troops around 8365.
now only my short scout is in ...
But my short term bias is still short ....

So as you can see I'm goiung for very short moves.
These micro dancing fits best to my "impatience".
And on the M1 chart this moves are lookiong quite impressive ;-)
  • #18,764
  • Sep 8, 2010 3:45am Sep 8, 2010 3:45am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Dongsky,

no - nothing special.
It was just my very short reading of USDJPY PA and related pairs.

Just right now the GB Manufactoring Production was allmost inline. So I have to wait if market sentiment will change. Therefor I'm monitoring the DOW. It made a little move up, but makret seems to see it as a non event ...

If USDJPY is going up to 8385 and above I'll do most probable a leveragred flip ....

But we have to wait and see ...
copy on that my friend, but what do you really mean when you say "leverage flip"?

i'm still eyeballing cable at the moment... not so good a figure to consider.

cheers!

edit: crystal clear now thanks!
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #18,765
  • Edited 4:04am Sep 8, 2010 3:51am | Edited 4:04am
Quoting dongsky
copy on that my friend, but what do you really mean when you say "leverage flip"?

i'm still eyeballing cable at the moment... not so good a figure to consider.

cheers!

Hi again,

leveraged flip (I hope I'm conform to fti's teachings here) is a switch of all my troops into the opposite direction.
But for example I do not switch level 3 long to level 3t short. Depending on the dynamic/momentum of the move against me I switch to level 4 or 5. At that time I'm extremely exposed to the market, but it is a special kind of rescue, that reduces my average price or better BE to a shorter distance. And I'lll try to take advantage of the momentum against my original position ...

Not sure, if I made my idea clear ...

edit: Ready for a flip
edit: Not sure what is gong on. Strong momentum to the upside (at least on M1 chart). But it Tokyo closeing time. MAy be some short term actions ...
So far not flipped, preparing a rescue instead ...
edit: Rescue troops deployed for a strong short lasting rescue ...
edit: Rescue troops taken oit at BE @ 8380. Scout still in ...
  • #18,766
  • Sep 8, 2010 4:05am Sep 8, 2010 4:05am
Quoting MaMood
Hi again,

leveraged flip (I hope I'm conform to fti's teachings here) is a switch of all my troops into the opposite direction.
But for example I do not switch level 3 long to level 3t short. Depending on the dynamic/momentum of the move against me I switch to level 4 or 5. At that time I'm extremely exposed to the market, but it is a special kind of rescue, that reduces my average price or better BE to a shorter distance. And I'lll try to take advantage of the momentum against my original position ...

Not sure, if I made my idea clear ......

that's a very long candle, so you're in a rescue mode now?

i deployed my rescue x 3 with EJ... same burst
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #18,767
  • Sep 8, 2010 4:10am Sep 8, 2010 4:10am
Quoting dongsky
that's a very long candle, so you're in a rescue mode now?

i deployed my rescue x 3 with EJ... same burst

Yeah - see my edit's in my posting above.
Recue finished but short scout still in.
But I guess I'll take him out, becuase my trading window fto tpday will close at 11:30. Not sure if there are some opportunities till then ...
  • #18,768
  • Sep 8, 2010 4:23am Sep 8, 2010 4:23am
Ok, cause I have to leave soon, some final comments on my session.

Because I'm a very short term trader, doing a rescue for me means that I'll deploy enough troops to get to BE in around 6 pips. So it was not too dramatic to throw these troops (after the M1 burst) in around 8387 and take then oit with a small profit around 8380.

Finally I have taken my short scout at 8373 a few minutes ago.

Why didf I throw in rescue trrops and did not do a flip?
Watching my charts showed me, that in all the other pairs and the DOW (Except EURJPY) there was nothing similiar to see. And in addition around 11:00 my time is Tokyo closing. That is not an unusual time for sudden moves ...
So I waited a till 11:00 had passed and PA had lost its steam.
So my final decision was to try a rescue ...

If you have questions, feel free to ask. Wiil be back thos afternoon to answer. But always keep in mind that I'm trading the M1 chart and I have very quick trigger fingers. So it may feel a little different in comparison to fti's usual stances ;-)

CU,
MaMood

edit: just for info - My timezone is GMT +1
  • #18,769
  • Edited 5:31am Sep 8, 2010 5:04am | Edited 5:31am
I repeat 3Kingdoms
Inserted Video
  • #18,770
  • Edited 7:02am Sep 8, 2010 6:54am | Edited 7:02am
Quoting MaMood
Ok, cause I have to leave soon, some final comments on my session.

Because I'm a very short term trader, doing a rescue for me means that I'll deploy enough troops to get to BE in around 6 pips. So it was not too dramatic to throw these troops (after the M1 burst) in around 8387 and take then oit with a small profit around 8380.

Finally I have taken my short scout at 8373 a few minutes ago.

Why didf I throw in rescue trrops and did not do a flip?
Watching my charts showed me, that in all the other pairs and the DOW (Except EURJPY) there was...
Hi Niels,

good to see you back in action mate
I am just stepping in now (had some personal stuff to look into so I am quite late) and it seems Europe is in a ping-pong mood today, hmmm.

Since you were away for a period of time there's one note on the EJ/UJ pairs and Dow that might be worth mentioning - I know exactly what you mean by following those, however the old carry fueling from EJ to DOW/ES is now rarely visible the way it used to be. It's shifted now to AUDJPY - you may wanna have a look at that.
Also, for those interested in making a quick buck with a good risk/reward ration - every once in a while during NY session there is a sharp divergence between AJ and ES/DOW for less then an hour. You should be able to figure out how to play that one

Regards
S

EDIT: As a lot of people come into this thread I should add a DISCLAIMER to my post here: Anything that I write here is based on my personal opinion and is NOT a trading advice or tip. Trading involves a large amount of risk so you should be fully aware of how to manage that risk before placing any trades in the markets. I will take no responsibility if someone considers my post(s) as a good trading advice and looses money!
  • #18,771
  • Sep 8, 2010 7:05am Sep 8, 2010 7:05am
Quoting Setebos
Hi Niels,

good to see you back in action mate
I am just stepping in now (had some personal stuff to look into so I am quite late) and it seems Europe is in a ping-pong mood today, hmmm.

Since you were away for a period of time there's one note on the EJ/UJ pairs and Dow that might be worth mentioning - I know exactly what you mean by following those, however the old carry fueling from EJ to DOW/ES is now rarely visible the way it used to be. It's shifted now to AUDJPY - you may wanna have a look at that.
Also, for those interested in making...
Hi Stan,

thanx for the info. That was just that kind of hint, that I was hoping for :-). will keep an eye on it. Was not aware of the change in "usual" behavior.

Seems we have to wait for any kind of action.
USDJPY is moving in a small range after I heft for lunch.
Despite the fact that I like to trade ranges, it is just to small for some good profits ...
  • #18,772
  • Sep 8, 2010 7:06am Sep 8, 2010 7:06am
BTW: Nice attachment to your posting.
Are you sure that trading contains some risks???
  • #18,773
  • Sep 8, 2010 7:17am Sep 8, 2010 7:17am
Quoting MaMood
BTW: Nice attachment to your posting.
Are you sure that trading contains some risks???
Not really, heard it from some guy on YouTube and thought it would look cool to add it
  • #18,774
  • Sep 8, 2010 7:22am Sep 8, 2010 7:22am
Quoting Setebos
Not really, heard it from some guy on YouTube and thought it would look cool to add it

- youtube ...
What would we do without the tube?

BTW: Has anyone seen that new "Market"-tab on the FF homepage?
Or much more intersting: Has anyone made any use out of the data provided there?

Here is the link:
http://www.forexfactory.com/market.php
  • #18,775
  • Sep 8, 2010 7:30am Sep 8, 2010 7:30am
Quoting MaMood
- youtube ...
What would we do without the tube?

BTW: Has anyone seen that new "Market"-tab on the FF homepage?
Or much more intersting: Has anyone made any use out of the data provided there?

Here is the link:
http://www.forexfactory.com/market.php
That looks very nice actually - IMO would be very interesting for those who have long term positions and are on the road (I had a few such cases myself with gold positions back in time).

Now, time to trade, NY volumes are now visible. The Force is strong with Gold again and Dow is not very convincing so it seems there's not much of a risk appetite available. Anyway, the music is on, time to dance
  • #18,776
  • Sep 8, 2010 7:57am Sep 8, 2010 7:57am
Quoting MaMood
If you ever have felt the rythm of the market it seems that you can't forget how to get in touch with her.
Like riding a bike: If you ever have learned it, you'll never forget how to do it ...

For the time being I have a slightly long bias with my Lady USDJPY ...

Edit: But seems that I'll make some money on the short side ...
So I have to wait, till I get some more input ...
This is absolutely true, even if did not drive a car for a month, when you come back behind the wheel you feel confident, the same with bike and any other staff. This is so profound of you to notice that. Here is the confirmation of that:
http://www.kryon.com/k_chanelgaithersburg06.html
  • #18,777
  • Sep 8, 2010 7:58am Sep 8, 2010 7:58am
The world seems to be waiting for the US beige book tonight.
Still no action with my lady ...
  • #18,778
  • Sep 8, 2010 9:34am Sep 8, 2010 9:34am
Phew, that was a hard piece of work.
Played USDJPY long and needed finally to reach 84xx again to make a good profit.
Squarred for now.
Will see if there will be an other opportunity.

BTW: Thanx @Setebos for your AUSJPY hint.
It was of great help to me.
  • #18,779
  • Sep 8, 2010 9:53am Sep 8, 2010 9:53am
Quoting MaMood
Phew, that was a hard piece of work.
Played USDJPY long and needed finally to reach 84xx again to make a good profit.
Squarred for now.
Will see if there will be an other opportunity.

BTW: Thanx @Setebos for your AUSJPY hint.
It was of great help to me.
No worries, glad to be of a help
Good to see you played that well, I got trapped in my EU positions, still battling there. Got way too distracted today and I'm paying the price now
Back in the field now.

Rgrds
S
  • #18,780
  • Sep 8, 2010 11:44am Sep 8, 2010 11:44am
Aaaja - that'S the way it works ...



Casbarro accepted bribes from day traders in return for allowing them to hear Citigroup customer orders. Squawk boxes are internal intercoms used by brokers to discuss pending trades by their banks. The day traders were accused of using information overheard on the intercoms to trade shares ahead of larger institutional transactions.
Casbarro would call day traders at A.B. Watley and leave his phone off the hook next to the squawk box, according to prosecutors.


And here the complete article ....

http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...-box-case.html

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