Desire: I am better at trading than any machine because I want to succeed.
Some one posted that as their tagline, and here was my response. I cant wait to see what some of you have to say. Lets stay professional please. -)
But.....I disagree. Give me a superb programmer with a very good trading system and he will beat the pants off of 95% of pros out there. Why?
1-Because the computer has no desire it will also make no mistakes and have no hidden bias.(and every trader has a bias, unconscious or not!)
2-the computer black box wont have to go to the bathroom or get tired.
3-No room for human error.
That said, the programmer would have to be a superb one and a damn good trader as well to keep tweaking and improving the system as market conditions and the stats of the system start to erode.
I also admit to wishing I could afford to partnet with programmer to backtest my ideas and even simple parameters. Small example-what human could tell if there is any edge in going against most usd pairs if the usd has broken below the usd/jpy 20 ma on the 15 min chart and then did so later on the others. This may be staggeringly relevant as the usd and jpy often move in tandem. Then again this could mean absolutely nothing. Do you have the dozens of hours needed to test this. Also, which pairs react more favorably the day before news, which ones 2 hours before news and which pairs react the least when news comes out as the bigger players knew something in advance? We smaller guys will never know this, and if we do it is years of research. I bet you there are funds out there that if you could ever get ahold of their stat books for 30 minutes youd never have to work again. They backtest everything....and then do it again every week or every month. So where is the humans edge? Its there, but often its illusory. Thats why I think 99.5% of traders lose.(Not 95% as they say!)hat said, I am a fairly successful equities trader and am new to forex comparativey, and part of me wants to believe what you believe. To me the best of both worlds is to have a superb program/backtester and a human trader working together trading both systems at same time. I think that is the best of all worlds.
Please let me add in one more thing not put in the original post. A grey box, in which a program gives a signal but then a human decides whether or not to take it or not may be the best of all of it! Has anyone found any stats as to which works better, a good grey box or a good black box or a human alone? We may never know. I would like to bet money that there are funds out there making a fortune with any and all of the 3. Buy I still would love to have the money to have a programmer sitting in my office even 2 hours a day. Because if suddenly I take a setup that looked superb and it failed, I could ask the programmer to backtest parameter he could find that perhaps my eyes would miss!
Some one posted that as their tagline, and here was my response. I cant wait to see what some of you have to say. Lets stay professional please. -)
But.....I disagree. Give me a superb programmer with a very good trading system and he will beat the pants off of 95% of pros out there. Why?
1-Because the computer has no desire it will also make no mistakes and have no hidden bias.(and every trader has a bias, unconscious or not!)
2-the computer black box wont have to go to the bathroom or get tired.
3-No room for human error.
That said, the programmer would have to be a superb one and a damn good trader as well to keep tweaking and improving the system as market conditions and the stats of the system start to erode.
I also admit to wishing I could afford to partnet with programmer to backtest my ideas and even simple parameters. Small example-what human could tell if there is any edge in going against most usd pairs if the usd has broken below the usd/jpy 20 ma on the 15 min chart and then did so later on the others. This may be staggeringly relevant as the usd and jpy often move in tandem. Then again this could mean absolutely nothing. Do you have the dozens of hours needed to test this. Also, which pairs react more favorably the day before news, which ones 2 hours before news and which pairs react the least when news comes out as the bigger players knew something in advance? We smaller guys will never know this, and if we do it is years of research. I bet you there are funds out there that if you could ever get ahold of their stat books for 30 minutes youd never have to work again. They backtest everything....and then do it again every week or every month. So where is the humans edge? Its there, but often its illusory. Thats why I think 99.5% of traders lose.(Not 95% as they say!)hat said, I am a fairly successful equities trader and am new to forex comparativey, and part of me wants to believe what you believe. To me the best of both worlds is to have a superb program/backtester and a human trader working together trading both systems at same time. I think that is the best of all worlds.
Please let me add in one more thing not put in the original post. A grey box, in which a program gives a signal but then a human decides whether or not to take it or not may be the best of all of it! Has anyone found any stats as to which works better, a good grey box or a good black box or a human alone? We may never know. I would like to bet money that there are funds out there making a fortune with any and all of the 3. Buy I still would love to have the money to have a programmer sitting in my office even 2 hours a day. Because if suddenly I take a setup that looked superb and it failed, I could ask the programmer to backtest parameter he could find that perhaps my eyes would miss!
