Islander and Medici trade the European open | Page 142 | Forex Factory

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Islander and Medici trade the European open

  • #2,821
  • Sep 5, 2010 5:03pm Sep 5, 2010 5:03pm
Quoting Sim
Interesting post, will ponder on it
Cheers...I think you understand this stuff...your M1 trading sounds pretty close to this, but I may be wrong...
  • #2,822
  • Sep 5, 2010 5:06pm Sep 5, 2010 5:06pm
Quoting medici
So if you find yourself thinking "I am waiting for confirmation", you should know that you are suffering from a diagnosable disease and seek treatment.
Hey, I'm no Jesse Livermore, but I think I am on top of this: I'm a scalper and I just trade in volatility - I see the price move and I hit it. I see price stall and I'm out. Not subject to much interpretation. Wins are small, but consistent.

Now, I waste as much time as anybody trying to figure out if I am on the right side of the market. Because, like Jesse L., I want to "be right and sit tight". In reality, my success in this regard is nothing to write home about - but when I do score, since I scalped in hard at ridiculous leverage, the return can be dramatic.

Anyway, in a nutshell, I think it is way way easier to predict volatility than it is to predict direction, so that's the way I roll.

Good luck all!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,823
  • Sep 5, 2010 5:16pm Sep 5, 2010 5:16pm
Quoting The Fool
Hey, I'm no Jesse Livermore, but I think I am on top of this: I'm a scalper and I just trade in volatility - I see the price move and I hit it. I see price stall and I'm out. Not subject to much interpretation. Wins are small, but consistent.
Great stuff, I thought you would be. And I thought the point was worth making for all those here who try to learn and read the charts like fortune-tellers read tea-leaves.

Quote

Now, I waste as much time as anybody trying to figure out if I am on the right side of the market. Because, like Jesse L., I want to "be right and sit tight". In reality, my success in this regard is nothing to write home about - but when I do score, since I scalped in hard at ridiculous leverage, the return can be dramatic.

A human disease. If I could have some pills that helped when I get attacks...

Ridiculous leverage...I like that too... no need to hit home-runs.

Quote

Anyway, in a nutshell, I think it is way way easier to predict volatility than it is to predict direction, so that's the way I roll.

Agreed. Predictable. I used to sell volatility, but these days (since 2008) it's a bit risky I have found from painful experience. How do you deal in it?

Quote

Good luck all!

Same, and good night from London! See you all tomorrow.
  • #2,824
  • Sep 5, 2010 5:18pm Sep 5, 2010 5:18pm
Quoting medici
You got it. Right on the money.



Fine if you have the objective validation of those patterns, but do you, or do you believe in them?



That's an interesting use of words.... Read that investopedia article again. It's called hindsight bias as long as it is not objectively verified.



Rubbish, indeed.

It's about trading without belief and bias, which is very hard for us to do. When I mess up it's either because of biases and beliefs or because of not being 100% focused (which typically leads to the former).
I have also found tht if you are alittle bit opinionated about the days events you tend to be smarter you know and they dont call ppl tht think they smart wise guys for nothing haha.

I do believe tht even though hindsight do play a role in many patterns tht seem good lead ppl to lose money in this game, but taking the lesson tht learn from the past i do believe some patterns are succesfull but only on a contingency bases, there is no way tht you can just blindly sell a double top because it might very well just blast through it, so the pattern might very well not be as important as the current tape reading as you pointed out because the pattern is only valid on the fact tht the current pattern is subject to a contingency bases basically rendering the pattern useless if the whteva method you use does not suggest it to be valid.

But thanks for reminding us to stay objective
  • #2,825
  • Sep 6, 2010 1:17am Sep 6, 2010 1:17am
Phew, Heavy going some of this weekend philosophy stuff, so lets get back on the grind stone.

little trade off the EU this morning 6.40 gmt. trade based on BB tightening up, hidden bullish divergence, GU allready starting to make moves upwards. 8 pips in the pot and out.

regards
doc
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  • #2,826
  • Sep 6, 2010 2:59am Sep 6, 2010 2:59am
Quoting medici
...
Imagine trading intra-day without any charts and making money based only on current price and tick flow! Those were the days
Well, if you know how to read the tape you don't need to do that. Enter right at the level (no confirmation)....
i believe this is trading at a different level.
  • #2,827
  • Sep 6, 2010 3:12am Sep 6, 2010 3:12am
GM, here are this morning's divergence based trades.
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  • #2,828
  • Sep 6, 2010 3:16am Sep 6, 2010 3:16am
Quoting supremeChaos
i believe this is trading at a different level.
Not to take anything away from Jesse L., but things have changed. He could buy some shares and then step back and assess the effect his trade had on the market, allowing him to ascertain market conditions and so to plan his next move. Volumes are orders of magnitude larger now, much more chaotic.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #2,829
  • Sep 6, 2010 3:16am Sep 6, 2010 3:16am
Quoting Dr.Scalpall
Phew, Heavy going some of this weekend philosophy stuff, so lets get back on the grind stone.

little trade off the EU this morning 6.40 gmt. trade based on BB tightening up, hidden bullish divergence, GU allready starting to make moves upwards. 8 pips in the pot and out.

regards
doc
Nice that CI divergence works for you on M1 Please continue sharing your findings.
  • #2,830
  • Sep 6, 2010 3:20am Sep 6, 2010 3:20am
Hey med...what are todays fib levels? I think I drew it correct off of 4h...so we just wicked off of the 61.8?
  • #2,831
  • Sep 6, 2010 3:38am Sep 6, 2010 3:38am
Quoting pilotui
Hey med...what are todays fib levels? I think I drew it correct off of 4h...so we just wicked off of the 61.8?
Depends on time-frame. Lots of fibs out there...
  • #2,832
  • Sep 6, 2010 3:58am Sep 6, 2010 3:58am
Man haha, now i cant really post my chart already hit my target but anyway, exactly wht i was talking about franky has a better chance to fake out than london, even though your stop wouldnt of been taken out, but you get wht i mean, but nice trades took on the 5min maby in 2years or so ill consider trading 5min as for now, i just cant stomach tht movement.
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  • #2,833
  • Sep 6, 2010 4:16am Sep 6, 2010 4:16am
Quoting CoffeeDrinke
Man haha, now i cant really post my chart already hit my target but anyway, exactly wht i was talking about franky has a better chance to fake out than london, even though your stop wouldnt of been taken out, but you get wht i mean, but nice trades took on the 5min maby in 2years or so ill consider trading 5min as for now, i just cant stomach tht movement.
Nice one! Thanks for adding the M15 perspective.
  • #2,834
  • Sep 6, 2010 4:32am Sep 6, 2010 4:32am
Quoting medici
Nice one! Thanks for adding the M15 perspective.
Pleasure, would you mind lifting your opinion about wht NY open might bring us today seeing tht US banks is holiday or so FF says.
  • #2,835
  • Sep 6, 2010 4:34am Sep 6, 2010 4:34am
Quoting CoffeeDrinke
Pleasure, would you mind lifting your opinion about wht NY open might bring us today seeing tht US banks is holiday or so FF says.
I'm outta here...that's my brief answer. Not worth it IMO, but I may be wrong.
  • #2,836
  • Sep 6, 2010 4:37am Sep 6, 2010 4:37am
Quoting medici
Depends on time-frame. Lots of fibs out there...
Hi Medici...when you get a chance, can you comment on attached chart? The circled area is a place I thought would be really good for a long. Reasons are it seemed a confluence area of fibs (daily, H4, and H1) as well as a daily pivot. There was a bit of divergence there, and it was also was with the uptrend over past few days.

I didn't take the trade, but only because I had already attained my daily goal by the time price got there. But otherwise I would have taken it. Obviously it would have failed, so I wanted to ask if you would have taken a long there, and if not, why not? I know I'm probably missing something here, but from my analysis it seemed a good setup (but wasn't of course).

Appreciate any insight and/or enlightenment! Thanks

P.S. A lot of "stuff" on the chart; sorry if hard to read...
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  • #2,837
  • Sep 6, 2010 4:42am Sep 6, 2010 4:42am
Quoting medici
I'm outta here...that's my brief answer. Not worth it IMO, but I may be wrong.
Kwl thnks of the answer so we might be looking at the consilidation of all consilidations hahah, enjoy
  • #2,838
  • Sep 6, 2010 4:42am Sep 6, 2010 4:42am
Quoting supremeChaos
i believe this is trading at a different level.
Haha, that's what I think too!

Yeah med current price movement can dictate the order flow which gives the bias for what's coming next, and you coincide this with looking at significant levels to catch the runners.

Here's the thing with these levels, 1) how do you know order flow is actually reversing there i.e. it is not just the support/resistance having it's effect 2) once orderflow is 'confirmed' to reverse, how the hell do you get filled at the top/bottom!
  • #2,839
  • Sep 6, 2010 4:49am Sep 6, 2010 4:49am
Quoting TC East
Hi Medici...when you get a chance, can you comment on attached chart?...
A long there would have been a case of catching a falling knife unless you were scalping for 10 or so. The uptrend had just reversed, so why not jump on at 5452 instead and join the ride down?

Divergence isn't everything except at the extremes, and that was by far no extreme. Asian session low hadn't been tested for a start, and the Friday morning high at 5452 had been broken...all indications of further downside with 5452 as resistance.

And there had been bearish divergence on H1 since 4am, so I would look for things to exhaust themselves on H1...not to say that I had the patience today And on H1 Friday's low looked like a place to go for, if not Thursday's low.
  • #2,840
  • Sep 6, 2010 5:00am Sep 6, 2010 5:00am
Quoting medici
A long there would have been a case of catching a falling knife unless you were scalping for 10 or so. The uptrend had just reversed, so why not jump on at 5452 instead and join the ride down?

Divergence isn't everything except at the extremes, and that was by far no extreme. Asian session low hadn't been tested for a start, and the Friday morning high at 5452 had been broken...all indications of further downside with 5452 as resistance.

And there had been bearish divergence on H1 since 4am, so I would look for things to exhaust themselves on...
Ok thank you, makes sense. I think I was losing the forest for the trees and getting tunnel vision; need to work on that. Thanks again
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