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Rufus

  • #501
  • Sep 2, 2010 3:54am Sep 2, 2010 3:54am
Quoting Rufus
profitable.
Definitely. The big lot issue is an important one to consider, at least for me anyway, because there's a significant burnout factor involved. Weird hours have a lot to do with that....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #502
  • Sep 2, 2010 10:05am Sep 2, 2010 10:05am
Quoting Rufus
Target 1 off 22 pips. First target was the little double top that Frankfurt gave us.

Get this bugger up a little more and I will move the stops to BE and hit the hay

Rufus
Last two parts hit my stop. So 22 pips, 10, 10.

Looks to me like the big money is positioning themselves for NFP tomorrow.

It was a good night for me inspite of the price wall at about 1.2840

Rufus
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #503
  • Sep 2, 2010 2:32pm Sep 2, 2010 2:32pm
Rufus,
Why do you use fib. 113, 121.4, 127 and 138.2. There is almost no difference between those lines?

Greetz
  • #504
  • Sep 2, 2010 7:20pm Sep 2, 2010 7:20pm
Quoting Forexmist
Rufus,
Why do you use fib. 113, 121.4, 127 and 138.2. There is almost no difference between those lines?

Greetz

113 and 127 are fib lines that often mark a dbl bottom or top, often leads into a Head and Shoulder pattern.

121.4 and 138.2 are targets after a 61.8 retracement

Check out screen shots

Rufus :nerd:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 61.8 fib retracement.jpg Size: 107 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 121.4...138.2...targetst.jpg Size: 115 KB
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #505
  • Sep 2, 2010 7:23pm Sep 2, 2010 7:23pm
Quoting Rufus
113 and 127 are fib lines that often mark a dbl bottom or top, often leads into a Head and Shoulder pattern.

121.4 and 138.2 are targets after a 61.8 retracement

Check out screen shots

Rufus :nerd:

The above three were all laid out on 15m charts. This is how I will attempt to lay out a trading plan with fibs.

Rufus
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #506
  • Sep 3, 2010 9:02pm Sep 3, 2010 9:02pm
International relations at its finest.

If more did this there would be no problems


An incredible video

Rufus

Inserted Video
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #507
  • Sep 4, 2010 1:56pm Sep 4, 2010 1:56pm
Time for me to start laying out a plan for the upcoming week.

The Dollar index has retraced up to the 38.2 fib level and resumed its downward trend. Strong support is expected right around the 80 level. After that around 77. So as usual time will dictate how this will go. Especially with the elections coming up in November this could prove to be a wild card for the index depending on polls and public opinion.

Rufus :nerd:
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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #508
  • Sep 4, 2010 2:46pm Sep 4, 2010 2:46pm
I think September will be interesting. The rule of thumb is that NFP sets the tone for the month on the first Friday. Well, the market liked Friday's NFP - you might say we are poised for a September rally. But I'm not so sure. The NFP number was green, but the unemployment rate sank further. Things still suck. But Wall Street may not mind, and historically stocks are a leading indicator. You're right - elections in November are going to have an effect. You'd have to expect that Dems will generally get the boot, maybe even lose the House. Wall Street will like that - maybe euphoria sets in even before November. So sell the USD, right? Risk-on stock plays. If you trade futures there is going to be big $$ longing commodities - nat gas and crude.

We could really be getting ready to crawl up out of this funk.

P.S. Do you still trade futures? There are a few good commodity traders on the FF

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...05#post4000105
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #509
  • Sep 4, 2010 3:19pm Sep 4, 2010 3:19pm
Quoting The Fool
I think September will be interesting. The rule of thumb is that NFP sets the tone for the month on the first Friday. Well, the market liked Friday's NFP - you might say we are poised for a September rally. But I'm not so sure. The NFP number was green, but the unemployment rate sank further. Things still suck. But Wall Street may not mind, and historically stocks are a leading indicator. You're right - elections in November are going to have an effect. You'd have to expect that Dems will generally get the boot, maybe even lose the House. Wall Street...

I still trade futures. I am working on limiting my focus to Gold/Silver, soybeans and sugar. I do this with option spreads instead of outright contracts. My oil spread is sucking wind and I have been tempted here to get rid of the short side of it as I think we are on the cusp of a strong oil rally, but it needs to do it before November when my options expire. My Gold and sugar spreads are doing very well. My sugar options expire this month and they are nicely in the money. Could be the first time in my futures carrer where I take a spread to maximum profit.

Rufus
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #510
  • Sep 4, 2010 3:27pm Sep 4, 2010 3:27pm
Quoting Rufus
I still trade futures. .... Could be the first time in my futures carrer where I take a spread to maximum profit.

Rufus
Nice! Hope you're having a good weekend. You can already smell the rainy season coming on. I am working up in Pt. Townsend from October-Christmas. If the sun comes out I will drive up there to scout a cheap short term rental. Otherwise catching up on all that lost sleep - yikes...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #511
  • Sep 4, 2010 4:21pm Sep 4, 2010 4:21pm
Quoting The Fool
Nice! Hope you're having a good weekend. You can already smell the rainy season coming on. I am working up in Pt. Townsend from October-Christmas. If the sun comes out I will drive up there to scout a cheap short term rental. Otherwise catching up on all that lost sleep - yikes...

I am cleaning the roof of pine needles and moss. Cutting firewood. Not to many sunny days left. Tons of yellow flowers gracing my lawn that need mowing.

Short term rental with FAST internet for your trigger finger.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #512
  • Sep 4, 2010 4:43pm Sep 4, 2010 4:43pm
Quoting Rufus
Short term rental with FAST internet for your trigger finger.
Yup. I have been looking at this:

http://www.virginmobileusa.com/mobile-broadband/

...unlimited mobile internet for $40/month - no contract - and its off the Sprint network. Hey that's cheaper than my Centurytel DSL. I have not found the catch...yet. May not be one. Long live free market capitalism.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #513
  • Sep 4, 2010 7:31pm Sep 4, 2010 7:31pm
Now for the EU.

This has been strong climbing uptrend. On the weekly chart the two fib targets are 1000 and 1300 pips away. So of course there will be corrections along the way if it gets to this area. On my monthly chart I have targets way to the downside as well. But these seem to be fading from the picture. As usual I will be placing trades with the trend of the higher time frames of the chart I enter on. This just gives me a sense of what is going on.

Rufus :nerd:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #514
  • Sep 5, 2010 9:11am Sep 5, 2010 9:11am
Where do these retracement targets come from, I haven’t found them in any literature?
Greetz
  • #515
  • Sep 5, 2010 10:55am Sep 5, 2010 10:55am
This PDF has some.

This is a pretty good condensed explanation of Fibonacci and how to use it. Along with some targets. The targets I use are slightly different.

If I set a target with a position with fibs I always shave 5-10 pips off it so mine gets hit before the actual point is hit. For that matter I always shave my targets. It is frustrating to have a target set on a pivot high or a calculated pivot to have price come withen two pips and not take your order. So I always shave the targets down. All the trading world sees the pivot high looking for a reversal. I want to be out with my profit before the pivot is reached.

Rufus :nerd:
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Practical_Fibonacci_Methods_For_Forex_Trading.pdf   437 KB | 439 downloads
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  • #516
  • Sep 5, 2010 11:08am Sep 5, 2010 11:08am
  • #517
  • Sep 5, 2010 12:02pm Sep 5, 2010 12:02pm
The GU continues to be in this channel. Not much has changed since last week. The targets to the upside correspond nicely with the weakness showing up in the dollar index.

Rufus :nerd:
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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #518
  • Sep 5, 2010 9:57pm Sep 5, 2010 9:57pm
Great e-book Rufus

Kurt

Quoting Rufus
This PDF has some.

This is a pretty good condensed explanation of Fibonacci and how to use it. Along with some targets. The targets I use are slightly different.

If I set a target with a position with fibs I always shave 5-10 pips off it so mine gets hit before the actual point is hit. For that matter I always shave my targets. It is frustrating to have a target set on a pivot high or a calculated pivot to have price come withen two pips and not take your order. So I always shave the targets down. All the trading world sees the pivot high looking...
  • #519
  • Sep 6, 2010 3:48am Sep 6, 2010 3:48am
EU long. My concern with this position is the pivot high we see on the 4h chart.(See chart above). I believe though that London will drive this thing.
Price retraced to 50% fib level from Tokyo Low. And bounced off the 100ma.

Time will tell.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #520
  • Sep 6, 2010 3:54am Sep 6, 2010 3:54am
Quoting Rufus
EU long. My concern with this position is the pivot high we see on the 4h chart.(See chart above). I believe though that London will drive this thing.
Price retraced to 50% fib level from Tokyo Low. And bounced off the 100ma.

Time will tell.

I did not catch the bottom falling out of the pound. I think if the Pound gets a little footing it will give the EU a chance to climb. The EU has been trying to climb out of this funk for a while now.

Rufus

Stoped out
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