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GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

  • #481
  • Sep 2, 2010 6:20am Sep 2, 2010 6:20am
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Welcome to you too. Not sure why they had you down as a girl, but I hope they're now convinced you are.

You're right about cable, I'm not sure of what it's trying to do, but buyers spent way too long trying to break through 1.540 today so just waiting to see where that takes us today. Same with the loonie where it's sitting on 'that' 1.05 support. I closed my loonie short and cable long trades last night, plus a NZD/JPY long I took from early yesterday morning from 58.90 (my wildcard trade!), and am just holding a long on the swissy as I'm not sure we're quite ready for parity with this pair yet though I could be wrong. If we do go up with this pair, I'm a bit concerned we may head for 1.5150 on cable, and head higher again with the loonie so I'm happy to just wait and see.

Been a confusing week for me, as I thought we'd end the week at 1.5720, and then 1.5500, but with this yo-yo action, I'm more than happy to just grab what I can and then sit on my hands. I've become pretty comfortable with being flat sometimes and just learning from observing the PA, and if I grow my account by 10% each week, it's been a good one.

Going to try and edit the pivot links Mystic sent!

Trade safely now, the slow and steady make 'consistent' profit in this business.


i


Quoting ams
Hello matey, long time no see...

Welcome back and thnx for defending my gender the other day. Aahhhhh, just because I don't participate in D*** Swinging contest means I am a girl, jeez.

Anyhow, hope all is going well. Regarding pound, it's ranging as there is no real interest of buyers or sellers. Instead commodity based currencies and Euro is taking the shine this week. All depends on news. This news week is AU dominated so AU, Kiwi, euro will be volatile. Hence presenting good trading opportunity.



Ta
Ams
  • #482
  • Sep 2, 2010 1:18pm Sep 2, 2010 1:18pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/can...ons-accelerate
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #483
  • Sep 2, 2010 1:43pm Sep 2, 2010 1:43pm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...for-banks.html

The game is given away by the EU stating that the ECB will meet all bank demand for liquidity through next year. And then the bill at ECB for the mess so far is now 600 Billion Euro - 200 more than in the beginning of the current farse.

As for growth, private sector exports in the EU are down, and not likely to grow anytime soon.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #484
  • Edited 7:45pm Sep 2, 2010 7:33pm | Edited 7:45pm
Quoting sinner-
Please remember what I said guys, the rush into fixed income and rate securities like gov bonds, corporate bonds, muni debt, etc will look right, right until it doesn't, there will be a stampede for the exits, the gaps and volatility will be huge. It would be naive to think this won't play out and massively affect the forex market. Keep your leverage low and your stops tight.
As I wrote August 12, 10s yields looked like they wanted to test 2.5%. After this occurred prior Bernankes Jackson Hole, 10 yields saw their largest % gain in almost 2 years. Last night, they didn't manage to penetrate those highs, but the long (30s) bond blew right up.
Attached Image

.

Bernanke must be shitting himself right now, if 30 year rates go up they will absolutely kill any chance of housing recovery and probably set off the next wave of CRE defaults.

Did I also mention something about muni debt? Seems like all it takes is for the market to realise junk is junk, is a yield spike and a little trigger article:

Harrisburg Defaults as Localities Struggle
Quote

Pennsylvania's capital of Harrisburg said it will skip a $3.29 million municipal-bond payment due in two weeks, marking the second-largest general-obligation municipal-bond default this year.
The city's inability to make the payment, which is expected to be covered by its bond insurer, may feed worries about parts of the $2.8 trillion municipal-bond market, particularly bonds issued by smaller entities that may have fewer resources than states or larger governments.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...googlenews_wsj

Harrisburg has been junk since at least January 2010 but seems everyone forgot until Treasury yields spiked.

With so many munis in this boat, expect more defaults to a Bloomberg terminal near you. According to WSJ above, the muni bond market accounts is roughly the same size as 20% of Americas GDP? Yeah right, I'm bullish. California is the worlds 9th or 10th largest economy, depending on which day of the week it is, and they are boned paying state employees in IOUs or asking them to only come to work 3 days a week. Every time I log onto Mike Shedlocks website, I hear about another bankrupt muni or state.

Why am I talking about US muni debt in a cable trading thread? If market demands higher yield from the UST market, they will demand higher yield from everything else too. I don't know how BoE has kept the long gilt and short sterling markets running the way they have, but I don't anticipate them to be immune from what looks like is coming down the pipe.

Maybe I'm completely wrong, some pundits are calling for a super flat yield curve across all instruments for the next forever and a bit.
  • #485
  • Sep 2, 2010 8:54pm Sep 2, 2010 8:54pm
Hello traders , I have went long at todays rollover price 1.5398 due too what is shown on the chart. Also have a posistion from the bottom trendline . I use camirilla pivots for my day trades a lot basically use the daily levels to trade the weekly levels back and forth. The camirillas basically give you a range for the up coming day as they are calculated from the last days close like wise with the weeklys . On a daily basis if price has been trading above the open (rollover price ) I have a slightly long bias till the upper cam levels have been reached and vise versa for below the open . There is also a small triangle break which gives a tgt up around the hourly 200 and if you use the levels from the inverted head and shoulder pattern for and abc pattern the 618 fib axtension of that is also in the same tgt area roughly the hourly 200 and yesterdays high area . The macd has also crossed above the 0 line , just a day trade trying to catch a few pips before nfp, cheers all.
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  • #486
  • Sep 3, 2010 4:09am Sep 3, 2010 4:09am
Quoting sinner-
As I wrote August 12, 10s yields looked like they wanted to test 2.5%. After this occurred prior Bernankes Jackson Hole, 10 yields saw their largest % gain in almost 2 years. Last night, they didn't manage to penetrate those highs, but the long (30s) bond blew right up.
Attachment
.

Bernanke must be shitting himself right now, if 30 year rates go up they will absolutely kill any chance of housing recovery and probably set off the next wave of CRE defaults.

Did I also mention something about muni debt? Seems like all it takes is...
Good post mate

Stocky
  • #487
  • Sep 3, 2010 4:27am Sep 3, 2010 4:27am
Quoting digger1
Hello traders , I have went long at todays rollover price 1.5398 due too what is shown on the chart. Also have a posistion from the bottom trendline . I use camirilla pivots for my day trades a lot basically use the daily levels to trade the weekly levels back and forth. The camirillas basically give you a range for the up coming day as they are calculated from the last days close like wise with the weeklys . On a daily basis if price has been trading above the open (rollover price ) I have a slightly long bias till the upper cam levels have been...
Exited a few before news rest were stopped out on the gbp news release , flat till after nfp stay safe everyone
  • #488
  • Sep 3, 2010 4:32am Sep 3, 2010 4:32am
Quoting digger1
Hello traders , I have went long at todays rollover price 1.5398 due too what is shown on the chart. Also have a posistion from the bottom trendline . I use camirilla pivots for my day trades a lot basically use the daily levels to trade the weekly levels back and forth. The camirillas basically give you a range for the up coming day as they are calculated from the last days close like wise with the weeklys . On a daily basis if price has been trading above the open (rollover price ) I have a slightly long bias till the upper cam levels have been...
Hi Digger,

Im long also from 5335 and and added again yesterday at 5370...Im never keen on running positions into NFP's but im going to set 5335 to b/e and maybe keep the stop for the other trade as it is. US expected NFP's are ambitious to say the least and I think it makes it easier for us to have a worse than expected figure which should spike GU higher after the initial volatility in both directions.

4 hour is showing signs of bullish diveregence taking place so will have to see how this plays out. If the trades are stopped out I take an early finish and start my weekend.

If your not already long from further down I would wait for NFP's to clear. If the market is going to break into a longer term up move then it would wait for NFP's to clear and it may be what we need to break above 5471.

Have a good day all.

Stocky
  • #489
  • Sep 3, 2010 4:33am Sep 3, 2010 4:33am
4hr GU chart

Stocky
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  • #490
  • Sep 3, 2010 4:36am Sep 3, 2010 4:36am
Quoting Stocky Monk
Hi Digger,

Im long also from 5335 and and added again yesterday at 5370...Im never keen on running positions into NFP's but im going to set 5335 to b/e and maybe keep the stop for the other trade as it is. US expected NFP's are ambitious to say the least and I think it makes it easier for us to have a worse than expected figure which should spike GU higher after the initial volatility in both directions.

4 hour is showing signs of bullish diveregence taking place so will have to see how this plays out. If the trades are stopped out I take an...
Thanx stocky monk , I probably should have kept a few on , but made a little jingle today and have had a decent week so not looking too hard for another trade today , flat is a posistion too lol, good luck with yours and have a great week end
  • #491
  • Sep 3, 2010 4:37am Sep 3, 2010 4:37am
Quoting digger1
Thanx stocky monk , I probably should have kept a few on , but made a little jingle today and have had a decent week so not looking too hard for another trade today , flat is a posistion too lol, good luck with yours and have a great week end
Have a good one mate

Stocky
  • #492
  • Sep 3, 2010 5:03am Sep 3, 2010 5:03am
As mentioned in an earlier post I use camirilla pivots , and the open of the corresponding time period , I use an 8 hour chart more than a 4hour for a little longer term view . The 8 hour chart with the standard macd setting averages on the chart when something is trending up the bottom average equates to an hourly 200 ema , when trending down the top average is roughly the hourly 200 ema . We opened a new month and have been trading above the monthly open close price so a bit of a bullish bias but price cant seem to get above the hourly 200 , still a target farther to the downside from the triangle break but we are still trading above the montly open, hopefully the nfp will get us back above the average band or below the monthly open which would give me a direction to try and put a few longer term holds on as we are coming to the end of summer and hopefully some better trending moves . A rather simple view I suppose but pretty effective . Anyhow today should give us a hint for the next little while when the dust settles from the release . Cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #493
  • Sep 3, 2010 5:22am Sep 3, 2010 5:22am
Hi Sinner - scary, isn't it.

Still a little cooked from yesterday in the garden. No trades today - NFP and all that, and leaving it a little late to get into a descent trade prior to. Yes, not long have I been lifted from slumber.

Hope all have a good day, and hit the weekend in the green.

Digger, nice to see you around - hope the pace here is more to your liking, as opposed to the frenzy on the Cable thread.

Quoting sinner-
As I wrote August 12, 10s yields looked like they wanted to test 2.5%. After this occurred prior Bernankes Jackson Hole, 10 yields saw their largest % gain in almost 2 years. Last night, they didn't manage to penetrate those highs, but the long (30s) bond blew right up.
Attachment
.

Bernanke must be shitting himself right now, if 30 year rates go up they will absolutely kill any chance of housing recovery and probably set off the next wave of CRE defaults.

Did I also mention something about muni debt? Seems like all it takes...
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #494
  • Sep 3, 2010 5:46am Sep 3, 2010 5:46am
Quoting 45Condor
Hi Sinner - scary, isn't it.

Still a little cooked from yesterday in the garden. No trades today - NFP and all that, and leaving it a little late to get into a descent trade prior to. Yes, not long have I been lifted from slumber.

Hope all have a good day, and hit the weekend in the green.

Digger, nice to see you around - hope the pace here is more to your liking, as opposed to the frenzy on the Cable thread.
lol, yes seems lots of topics in there besides trading .
  • #495
  • Sep 3, 2010 7:50am Sep 3, 2010 7:50am
GU rockets up from a much better than expected NFP figure...for those who are confused this is how I see it....This shows the market makers are still wanting to buy sterling even of the back of a better NFP figure.....

The spike up is induced by the opposite of' 'flight to saftey' concept....trader selling US bonds and buying higher risk equities of the back of stronger employement figures....if enough traders pull out of US bonds simulatenously this causes dollar weakness and equities rise.

Will be interesting to see if we can break 5471....A daily hold above that level will be ideal for GU strengthening next week.

5370 banked at 5460 (90pips)

5335 locked in at b/e....will leave this over the weekend.

Im done for the day...have a good weekend all

Stocky
  • #496
  • Sep 3, 2010 7:56am Sep 3, 2010 7:56am
That rise was the knee jerk reaction to traders pulling out of US teasuries...would not be suprised to now see us drop and test yesterdays low if the pivot does not hold...will be key to keep an eye on the daily pivot as that is where we have found support....todays point of control is 5312.

Stocky
  • #497
  • Sep 3, 2010 8:07am Sep 3, 2010 8:07am
this mornings range is providing a nice ledge 5430 for us to bounce here. If we break below 5430 then we have this mornings distribution to work through....5430 to 5390.

I have attached a MP chart to show the levels and ledges. Also marked reason for exit on long scalp at 5460.

This is the last post..lol

Stocky
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  • #498
  • Sep 3, 2010 8:13am Sep 3, 2010 8:13am
Lol, see you next week ha ha
  • #499
  • Sep 6, 2010 10:23am Sep 6, 2010 10:23am
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...se-aspiration/

Not much going on today - Monday, traders back in this week and all that.

Many will be relieved to learn that the weekend greeted me with the choice of polemic for the on-line community, or spending the weekend helping my wife down in the stables, and then cycling together on Sunday to collect blackberries and what not.

I like the company here, but the absence of any post will indicate what my decision was.

Hope all are okay, and that this week brings nothing but green pips.

Quoting Oshawa
Hi, 45Condor. I am always amazed at the quality of your 'musing'/editorial. Regarding the attitudes of graduates in developed nations, I can say, as an academic in one of the 'top' universities, that many of the stereotypes (or speculations) is true. In addition, students in developing countries, be it former Soviet ones or those in the Far East, have a much better foundation in science and logical reasoning, and they are willing to put their mind and efforts to solving difficult problems. British students, I hate to say, mostly expect to be given...
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #500
  • Sep 7, 2010 7:37am Sep 7, 2010 7:37am
Just to put something up for the day.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu4hr.gif Size: 42 KB
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
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