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Vegas Wealth Builder - Part I

  • #101
  • Jan 25, 2006 1:54pm Jan 25, 2006 1:54pm
Quoting Bemac
Excuse me.
It may be that because I didn't join this Forum in the summer of '04 I will be told to sit down. Then so be it.
Hi Scott,

I hope that you don't sit down! You add alot to this forum!

I hope that I speak for several of the recent posters, but if not I will speak for myself.

I am a huge fan of Vegas. His methods so selflessly shared, have set me on the path and provided great focus on my strategies. His generousity in sharing these easily provable models is absolutely truely unique in my "limited" experience.

Of note in his models, his attitude towards "allowing" experimentation is pervasive. but........ he also tells us his attitude and approach to the model.

I am very interested in the discussion of this attitude and approach. A probe into the mind of a successful trader, who shares his methods.

Sometimes when something new like VWB is released. We all rush to tweak in stead of study the merits......I'm not saying this is bad! I'm just saying that it would be great to understand the merits, make them work, or prove they don't before making them better.......with indicators....that absolutley do lag price action. Can they add confirmation? You bet! They will tell you what has just happened. Price action can give you an edge....PA like lagging indicators of course are never a sure thing.

Dial's work on the 4Hr Tunnel is brilliant IMHO. He has honed a great modell into a great system! The Knife! In his teaching in the PF he shares his understanding of the Vegas model which is astute. He adds tweaks which help make the system more powerful. His tweaks are necessary and yet only serve to enhance the system. These tweaks I am sure came to him after his understanding of the V4T model.

Now Vegas seems to have a preference for candlesticks. I switched to OHLC bars some time back, because of James Hearndon's Preference. I did not want to miss the translation in his teaching. Which is superb. I am modeling VWB in this fashion. I hope to accomplish an improvement with this simple "tweak" because the spirit of the VWB doc implies "price action at the right time" to me. IMO you can't get a better handle on what price is telling you than what James teaches.

Accrete has been very energetic in his further develope ment of Vegas models as applied to shorter time frames. I am not demoing those right now but I am monitoring the FIBO 15min model..... looks promising...I think this is great work! Just not for me right now!

When I asked the question "Has anyone ever heard of a method called the 4hr Tunnel?" In post one of the "Lost in the Tunnel" thread, I was hoping, in my mind to generate discussion on the merits of the V4T,pure.

As it happened it morphed into other aspects. I really didn't mind as this is a public forum. Some of the tweaks were helpful. Isotonics work was great! His momentum indicator and Tun lines live on my charts today.

Some of the stuff just did'nt make sense or serve to enhance my understanding of the model so I just sorta let it go in and out.

To make a short story long......

I have to admit that a personal preference of mine would be to have this thread dedicated to the Vegas Model PURE. The threads with system developements and tweaks could be easily moved to another thread.

I know I would frequent both......and benefit!

See ya friend

HJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #102
  • Jan 25, 2006 2:37pm Jan 25, 2006 2:37pm
Quoting HeavyJ
Hi Scott,

I hope that you don't sit down! You add alot to this forum!

I hope that I speak for several of the recent posters, but if not I will speak for myself.

<big snip>

I have to admit that a personal preference of mine would be to have this thread dedicated to the Vegas Model PURE. The threads with system developements and tweaks could be easily moved to another thread.

I know I would frequent both......and benefit!

See ya friend

HJ
Very well said HeavyJ. All I was expressing in my post was my opinion and preference to discuss the pure VWB. I just failed to express that explicitly. I also wish I had also thought to suggest the excellent idea of a separate thread for those like Bemac who have good ideas and prefer to experiment and seek improvements. There is value in both approaches and each group can learn from the other as you so eloquently said. Having separate threads would add clarity by the simple expedient of having separate topics in separate threads. Mixing both dicussions in one thread becomes confusing and lacks focus, to me at least. But then, I'm not the sharpest brick in the pie, now am I?

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #103
  • Jan 25, 2006 2:53pm Jan 25, 2006 2:53pm
Quoting diallist

The name of the game is finding high probability trade setups. All indicators are based on price and are therefore lagging. Price is real-time. Price is King! Who needs indicators?

Just my two pips worth (micro)

Dial
Hmmm... Maybe you missed it. Just incase you did.

The entire Method is Based on a 24 MA Lagging Indicator.

I'll wait for Vegas' opinion, if you don't mind.
  • #104
  • Jan 25, 2006 3:02pm Jan 25, 2006 3:02pm
[quote=diallist]I just wanted to interject a thought here. The VWB doesn't have indicators. Vegas is a very good trader. If the VWB needed indicators, wouldn't Vegas have included them? I think the focus should be on watching price action and taking advantage of reversal price action occuring in conjunction with price having touched the designated fib for the currency.

The name of the game is finding high probability trade setups. All indicators are based on price and are therefore lagging. Price is real-time. Price is King! Who needs indicators?

The combination of fibs and price action as described in the VWB, in conjuction with discipline and proper money management is more than enough to trade profitably. Adding anything else just muddies the water.

Dialist,

In all my years of trading, both on the floor and off, it never ceases to amaze me how people ALWAYS want to complicate something if they can possibly find a way.

When I was on the floor, I used to have people stand near me mumbling all day about how in 1948 March wheat put in this same kind of formation as Swiss was about to, and that we were about to go down 150 pips. Did they sell? Nope, because some 2-4-6-8-10 oscillator they had in their pocket just came in with a veto override. When the market finally went down, how many were they short? None, that's how many. They pay so much attention to the indicators, they have lost their ability to listen to price.

Here in Las Vegas, I used to golf with a doctor, who when he found out who I was, begged me to teach him how to trade. He said it could not be that simple. A month later he had Yen charts going back 20 years taped on his living room walls. His wife was appalled. Since he was a doctor, his superior brain power would win the day and he was bound to "clean-up". Once again, ignore price action at your peril.

In any type of trading endeavor [forex, stocks, anything] all that you can hope for is the marble game. Five marbles in a bag; 4 white and 1 red. You pick a marble. If you pick white you win $200, and if you pick red you lose $100. Here's my point: if I played this game with you [and I'm certain you would if I agreed] would you then start dreaming up other "conditions" that would have to be present in order to play the game, e.g. we must play at your house or only in daytime between 9 - 5 pm.?

KISS [Keep It Simple Stupid] always has been and always will be the preferred method to make money.

I said in VWB that you would come to find implementing this tough. Why? Because the market will be MOST bullish at the top and MOST bearish at the bottom, and your emotions and brains will get in the way of you making money.

As I write this, gbp/usd has put in a reversal day at the outer fib number. The market has been very bullish lately, with "experts" all over the place predicting future price action. All I know is that I got my signal and I'm short [like I described in a past post] with stop above the reversal high.

Will I be right? I don't care, because I did what I am supposed to do. I am simply picking marbles out of a bag.
vegas
  • #105
  • Jan 25, 2006 3:06pm Jan 25, 2006 3:06pm
Quoting Bemac
Hmmm... Maybe you missed it. Just incase you did.

The entire Method is Based on a 24 MA Lagging Indicator.
....Hmmmm your right except for entry and exit which is based on PA/TA

Quote
I'll wait for Vegas' opinion, if you don't mind.

Not at all friend!

HJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #106
  • Edited 3:46pm Jan 25, 2006 3:38pm | Edited 3:46pm
Hi all. What a great read through these last few posts (94-106) !

I wanted to share something with the gang just for the record...

I know that there are many posts by myself on "tweaks" on the 4hr and vwbDaily, though most of my tweaks are simply myself trying to find a correlation between possible currency target-levels I.e. The FIBOs. In one particular post was the mention that I am a discretionary trader, and not a "system" or mechanical trader.

For myself, I rarely use anything other than FIBO data combined with candle-formation/price-action to enter a trade. I will, on a separate chart, have my RSI mentioned back in post #84 as my preferred "exit" indicator. Other than this indicator I rely mainly on formations/convergences as stated...even when looking at the 4hr method last week i was in a EUR trade prior to what the stock 4hr "model" recomended, i entered because my set rules of trading counter-trend-line breaks took place. The chart on the left is a 4hr chart with FIBOs set at 144 to match the stock 28 primary ma on the VWB Daily. As mentioned, in this example of a demo trade, i was looking at PA on a 4hr time frame to validate reasons to enter a trade that i would set my profit level off the VWB Daily chart. You will note that i changed some of the wording, such as the "Warning" to "Caution Zone". The red lines are manualy drawn trend lines, the yellow lines are my demo-trade entry with profit (set &) taken at the daily's 1.2291 FIB level.

(When i entered the below trade the stock 4hr on 55ma was screaming "Warning" as the ma's had recently crossed. So why did i set the 4hr chart below w/144ma as primary? My reasoning is this; IF my primary chart is the longer term Daily chart, and I believe in the Daily's MAs to be set correctly, then i will modify/set my smaller term chart's MA to help me visualize the chart's price action as it relates to the LT chart.) :

http://www.accrete.com/fx_posts/J13G...01-224hr_d.PNG

It was/is my intention when sharing my thoughts on correlating the FIBO levels between time-frames to show graphically which ma#S on a particular time frame matched within a handful of pips, the same levels on a larger time frame. I figured that I was not the only one that had the desire to know the answer. . . And found that a 55 ma on a 4hr chart matches closely to an 11 ma on a daily chart, OR that a 144 ma on a 4hr chart matches closely to an 28 ma on a daily chart. These were simple observations on my part and a desire to share what I'd learned while doodling. In each post I later added a disclaimer-statement that I did not trade off the modified "models", that they were simply additional "indicators" to assist me in trading off longer time frame charts that I was trying out at the time.

I will state that the shorter time frame FIBO tunnels which I quickly adapted from the original 4hr model were successful during a period of time in late 2005 on time frames under 60m for grabbing an average of 18-20 pips a day for several weeks during the experiment in my demo account while trading live-demo during the NY open session. The reason I am here (and specifically in the PF) is to learn to trade the larger time frame charts which is something I have been fearfull of as my initial training was on very short TF charts even down to 1m. Eye-see the future for myself MUST include trading from LT charts if I am to have a life at all outside the home w/family and friends.

Bottom line? I'm a nice guy at heart simply sharing what I've learned while doodling and would never wish that anything I shared was cause of someone loosing even a pip of profit in their trading. For myself, and I state again, FIBO levels facinate me, and seeing a correlation ACROSS time frames helps build my confidence when going into a trade.

I'm here to learn, share, and meet some like minded people hoping to make a better life for family and friends : - )
  • #107
  • Jan 25, 2006 5:32pm Jan 25, 2006 5:32pm
[quote=vegas]
Dialist,

In all my years of trading, both on the floor and off, it never ceases to amaze me how people ALWAYS want to complicate something if they can possibly find a way.

KISS [Keep It Simple Stupid] always has been and always will be the preferred method to make money.



I've read many times, the top traders in the world, say,
" if it ain't simple, it ain't gonna last".

Price action clears things up. Just my on going experience and two cents worth.

Quinn
I started out with nothing, and I've got most of it left!
  • #108
  • Jan 25, 2006 5:49pm Jan 25, 2006 5:49pm
Quoting vegas
As I write this, gbp/usd has put in a reversal day at the outer fib number. The market has been very bullish lately, with "experts" all over the place predicting future price action. All I know is that I got my signal and I'm short [like I described in a past post] with stop above the reversal high.

Will I be right? I don't care, because I did what I am supposed to do. I am simply picking marbles out of a bag.
Dear Sir,

I am so thankful you are posting here!

Funny you should mention the Cable....Thanx to you Iv'e been looking at it all day!

Thanx Again
HJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #109
  • Jan 25, 2006 8:01pm Jan 25, 2006 8:01pm
From Vegas:

"I will start by saying that I almost never wait for the close to initiate a full position. I am already in alert mode before the day begins because the market is trading at or very near the appropriate fib level for the currency pair. What I am now most interested in at this point are 2 things. 1) Speed and momentum moving away from the high or low [whichever case is appropriate] of the day, and 2) Starting with the European session [roughly 4 am est] and moving forward into the US session, where is the 50% retracement of the days range taking place"

Thanks vegas for your generosity. Iam new to forex and would appreciate if anybody can explain #2 above. Specifically on 50% Retracement.

Thanks in advance
Dam
  • #110
  • Jan 25, 2006 8:18pm Jan 25, 2006 8:18pm
Quoting accrete
Hi all. What a great read through these last few posts (94-106) !

I wanted to share something with the gang just for the record...

I know that there are many posts by myself on "tweaks" on the 4hr and vwbDaily, though most of my tweaks are simply myself trying to find a correlation between possible currency target-levels I.e. The FIBOs. In one particular post was the mention that I am a discretionary trader, and not a "system" or mechanical trader.

For myself, I rarely use anything other than FIBO data combined with candle-formation/price-action to enter a trade. I will, on a separate chart, have my RSI mentioned back in post #84 as my preferred "exit" indicator. Other than this indicator I rely mainly on formations/convergences as stated...even when looking at the 4hr method last week i was in a EUR trade prior to what the stock 4hr "model" recomended, i entered because my set rules of trading counter-trend-line breaks took place. The chart on the left is a 4hr chart with FIBOs set at 144 to match the stock 28 primary ma on the VWB Daily. As mentioned, in this example of a demo trade, i was looking at PA on a 4hr time frame to validate reasons to enter a trade that i would set my profit level off the VWB Daily chart. You will note that i changed some of the wording, such as the "Warning" to "Caution Zone". The red lines are manualy drawn trend lines, the yellow lines are my demo-trade entry with profit (set &) taken at the daily's 1.2291 FIB level.

(When i entered the below trade the stock 4hr on 55ma was screaming "Warning" as the ma's had recently crossed. So why did i set the 4hr chart below w/144ma as primary? My reasoning is this; IF my primary chart is the longer term Daily chart, and I believe in the Daily's MAs to be set correctly, then i will modify/set my smaller term chart's MA to help me visualize the chart's price action as it relates to the LT chart.) :

http://www.accrete.com/fx_posts/J13G...01-224hr_d.PNG

It was/is my intention when sharing my thoughts on correlating the FIBO levels between time-frames to show graphically which ma#S on a particular time frame matched within a handful of pips, the same levels on a larger time frame. I figured that I was not the only one that had the desire to know the answer. . . And found that a 55 ma on a 4hr chart matches closely to an 11 ma on a daily chart, OR that a 144 ma on a 4hr chart matches closely to an 28 ma on a daily chart. These were simple observations on my part and a desire to share what I'd learned while doodling. In each post I later added a disclaimer-statement that I did not trade off the modified "models", that they were simply additional "indicators" to assist me in trading off longer time frame charts that I was trying out at the time.

I will state that the shorter time frame FIBO tunnels which I quickly adapted from the original 4hr model were successful during a period of time in late 2005 on time frames under 60m for grabbing an average of 18-20 pips a day for several weeks during the experiment in my demo account while trading live-demo during the NY open session. The reason I am here (and specifically in the PF) is to learn to trade the larger time frame charts which is something I have been fearfull of as my initial training was on very short TF charts even down to 1m. Eye-see the future for myself MUST include trading from LT charts if I am to have a life at all outside the home w/family and friends.

Bottom line? I'm a nice guy at heart simply sharing what I've learned while doodling and would never wish that anything I shared was cause of someone loosing even a pip of profit in their trading. For myself, and I state again, FIBO levels facinate me, and seeing a correlation ACROSS time frames helps build my confidence when going into a trade.

I'm here to learn, share, and meet some like minded people hoping to make a better life for family and friends : - )
accrete,

I hope my response to dialist isn't what prompted your post. If it is, then I apologize for being unclear to everyone, especially you.

My point was to share my experience about people who always have to add another indicator to the list before they trade. They can never seem to find that perfect trade and are thus paralyzed by indecision and fear.

I did not mean to imply that anyone who "tinkers" with 'Vegas Wealth Builder', the 1 hour or the 4 hour tunnel methods, or the fib numbers are in this category. Quite the contrary, your responses are well thought out and worthy of study. My hope in all the files I write is to see people do exactly what you have done. That's why in VWB I made special mention of the fact that I knew this was going to happen and that I very much encourage everyone to "tinker" away.

To everyone, including accrete, I want to make it perfectly clear that your "2 cents" on VWB, the tunnel methods, or the fibs are valuable. Nobody, especially me, has all the answers. So, please keep plugging away.
vegas
  • #111
  • Jan 25, 2006 8:35pm Jan 25, 2006 8:35pm
Quoting dpatloll
From Vegas:

"I will start by saying that I almost never wait for the close to initiate a full position. I am already in alert mode before the day begins because the market is trading at or very near the appropriate fib level for the currency pair. What I am now most interested in at this point are 2 things. 1) Speed and momentum moving away from the high or low [whichever case is appropriate] of the day, and 2) Starting with the European session [roughly 4 am est] and moving forward into the US session, where is the 50% retracement of the days range taking place"

Thanks vegas for your generosity. Iam new to forex and would appreciate if anybody can explain #2 above. Specifically on 50% Retracement.

Thanks in advance
dpatloll,

I will explain.

First, the market is trading at the extreme fib numbers. This should put you on alert, because this satifies the first condition of putting on a trade. The second condition is some kind of candlestick or bar-chart reversal pattern. I go over the most reliable reversal patterns in VWB.

I now shift my focus to the day's trading. During the course of the trading day which starts in Asia, the market will obviously have a range between the high and low of the day. Whatever this number of pips is [high-low] I am interested when it starts to get close to 50% or mid-point.

I probably could write a book on 50% retracements, but suffice it to say it is an important day-trading tool on reversal days. Why? Because by its' very nature reversal days have to penetrate this level before they can continue. If this level is NOT violated, a reversal day is a moot point.

When markets violate this level during Europe or US trading, the probability of the original move continuing the rest of the day is very low. Well, if that's the case, then we have the "perfect storm" brewing for a reversal day.

In my book, this is worthy of partial early entry for a position. More can be added later in the day or the next day if I am right. If I am wrong, I treat this early position as a day-trade and exit. This gives me superior pricing, on my position, relative to just entering on the close.

I hope this clears up the concept.
vegas
  • #112
  • Jan 25, 2006 8:56pm Jan 25, 2006 8:56pm
Quoting vegas
KISS [Keep It Simple Stupid] always has been and always will be the preferred method to make money.

I said in VWB that you would come to find implementing this tough. Why? Because the market will be MOST bullish at the top and MOST bearish at the bottom, and your emotions and brains will get in the way of you making money.

As I write this, gbp/usd has put in a reversal day at the outer fib number. The market has been very bullish lately, with "experts" all over the place predicting future price action. All I know is that I got my signal and I'm short [like I described in a past post] with stop above the reversal high.

Will I be right? I don't care, because I did what I am supposed to do. I am simply picking marbles out of a bag.
Thank you Vegas for a most illuminating reply. I really like how your words are like a searchlight, piercing the fog and clarifying what is important. I've heard the marble analogy before, but this time it took on new clarity and definition for me. Thank you!

I look forward to your posts here for as long as you are willing to visit. And speaking of visit, I am really looking forward to any critique you may have of the "Knife" system as I present it in the Private Forum.

And, in reference to that, I would like to make a request of you. If you find that any of the changes I have made to your system, or if any of the replies I've made in the Knife discussion thread are off target I would really appreciate being corrected. I don't care about being wrong or even having it pointed out on the forum. What I do care about is the welfare of the subscribers who read and follow my section of the PF. I want to be as sure as I can that they get only the best information that will help them become good traders. So when you visit, I will truly welcome and be thankful for any critiques and comments you feel you should make.

Thanks Vegas!

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #113
  • Jan 25, 2006 9:21pm Jan 25, 2006 9:21pm
Quoting vegas
dpatloll,

I will explain.

First, the market is trading at the extreme fib numbers. This should put you on alert, because this satifies the first condition of putting on a trade. The second condition is some kind of candlestick or bar-chart reversal pattern. I go over the most reliable reversal patterns in VWB.

I now shift my focus to the day's trading. During the course of the trading day which starts in Asia, the market will obviously have a range between the high and low of the day. Whatever this number of pips is [high-low] I am interested when it starts to get close to 50% or mid-point.

I probably could write a book on 50% retracements, but suffice it to say it is an important day-trading tool on reversal days. Why? Because by its' very nature reversal days have to penetrate this level before they can continue. If this level is NOT violated, a reversal day is a moot point.

When markets violate this level during Europe or US trading, the probability of the original move continuing the rest of the day is very low. Well, if that's the case, then we have the "perfect storm" brewing for a reversal day.

In my book, this is worthy of partial early entry for a position. More can be added later in the day or the next day if I am right. If I am wrong, I treat this early position as a day-trade and exit. This gives me superior pricing, on my position, relative to just entering on the close.

I hope this clears up the concept.
I have a question about the reversal day and the 50% retracement. If I'm understanding you correctly, you have a reversal day with an appropriate candle stick formation that closes. On the following day are you looking for a 50% retracement of the previous days range? For example, the crrent GBP daily chart has a doji formation for yesterdays close, 1.25.06 GMT. Would you be looking for the 50% retracement on 1.26.06 before you entered a short position in this case?

Thanks
Dave
Dave If you can't swim with the sharks stay out of the water!
  • #114
  • Jan 25, 2006 9:51pm Jan 25, 2006 9:51pm
Quoting vegas
dpatloll,

I will explain.

First, the market is trading at the extreme fib numbers. This should put you on alert, because this satifies the first condition of putting on a trade. The second condition is some kind of candlestick or bar-chart reversal pattern. I go over the most reliable reversal patterns in VWB.
Okay, this part is perfectly clear to me.

Quoting vegas
I now shift my focus to the day's trading. During the course of the trading day which starts in Asia, the market will obviously have a range between the high and low of the day. Whatever this number of pips is [high-low] I am interested when it starts to get close to 50% or mid-point.
What period of time defines the days range? When does it begin and end? Are you just looking at the high and low that occurs between the opening of the Asian session and the opening of the European session? To my understanding, that only covers a 7 hour period. I need to see if I'm understanding your definition of the 50% level. If the Asian session opens at 1.2100 and the European session opens at 1.2150 that would be a range of 50 pips. Are you saying the 50% level is at 1.2125?

Or, are you taking the range from Asian open to Asian open (24 hours) and taking the mid point of that range?

I want to be completely clear how you are defining the days range.
Quote
I probably could write a book on 50% retracements, but suffice it to say it is an important day-trading tool on reversal days. Why? Because by its' very nature reversal days have to penetrate this level before they can continue. If this level is NOT violated, a reversal day is a moot point.

When markets violate this level during Europe or US trading, the probability of the original move continuing the rest of the day is very low. Well, if that's the case, then we have the "perfect storm" brewing for a reversal day.
So if the previous days' range was bullish, then you are looking for a bearish move past the 50% point of the previous days range. Is this correct? On a bar chart, I'm visualizing the price of the current days' bar falling below the mid point of the previous days's bar. Is that right or wrong?


Quote
In my book, this is worthy of partial early entry for a position. More can be added later in the day or the next day if I am right. If I am wrong, I treat this early position as a day-trade and exit. This gives me superior pricing, on my position, relative to just entering on the close.
How much is "partial"? In other words, what fraction of your full position do you start with once the 50% level has been breached? Providing I'm understanding your definition of range and mid point, I should be able to place an entry stop order at the beginning of the European session, and cancel it if it hasn't been triggered by the end of New York trading. If this is the case, then I would only need to create these entry stop orders if the target fib level has been touched.

I'm sorry to be so picky, but I feel this is an important concept and I require full understanding of what you mean. Thanks for your patience.

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #115
  • Jan 25, 2006 9:58pm Jan 25, 2006 9:58pm
Quoting downunderdave40
I have a question about the reversal day and the 50% retracement. If I'm understanding you correctly, you have a reversal day with an appropriate candle stick formation that closes. On the following day are you looking for a 50% retracement of the previous days range? For example, the crrent GBP daily chart has a doji formation for yesterdays close, 1.25.06 GMT. Would you be looking for the 50% retracement on 1.26.06 before you entered a short position in this case?

Thanks
Dave
Dave,
No, I don't wait for a reversal day that closes. I wait for the market to get to the fibs and then I look for market action that tells me a reversal day has a high probability on that day.
vegas
  • #116
  • Jan 25, 2006 10:07pm Jan 25, 2006 10:07pm
[quote=diallist]Okay, this part is perfectly clear to me.

What period of time defines the days range? When does it begin and end? Are you just looking at the high and low that occurs between the opening of the Asian session and the opening of the European session? To my understanding, that only covers a 7 hour period. I need to see if I'm understanding your definition of the 50% level. If the Asian session opens at 1.2100 and the European session opens at 1.2150 that would be a range of 50 pips. Are you saying the 50% level is at 1.2125?

Or, are you taking the range from Asian open to Asian open (24 hours) and taking the mid point of that range?

I want to be completely clear how you are defining the days range.
So if the previous days' range was bullish, then you are looking for a bearish move past the 50% point of the previous days range. Is this correct? On a bar chart, I'm visualizing the price of the current days' bar falling below the mid point of the previous days's bar. Is that right or wrong?


How much is "partial"? In other words, what fraction of your full position do you start with once the 50% level has been breached? Providing I'm understanding your definition of range and mid point, I should be able to place an entry stop order at the beginning of the European session, and cancel it if it hasn't been triggered by the end of New York trading. If this is the case, then I would only need to create these entry stop orders if the target fib level has been touched.

I'm sorry to be so picky, but I feel this is an important concept and I require full understanding of what you mean. Thanks for your patience.

Dial[/QUO

Dial,
1) What defines the days range?
Anytime from the start of Asia and you get to approximately 60 pips or more [this is for gbp/usd. Obviously it will be a little different for other pairs]. From here a 30 pip move would be needed to violate the 50% rule. The higher the range, the more dependable this 50% rule becomes.

2) The previous days action has no bearing except that it hit a fib level.

3) How much is partial?
Depending on how aggressive you want to be, I'd define it somewhere between 1/4 and 1/2 of your normal trade size.
vegas
  • #117
  • Jan 25, 2006 10:24pm Jan 25, 2006 10:24pm
Hi Vegas,

How do you get the end of day S&P 500 charts in MetaTrader?

Which broker do you use? Is Globex a particular broker or a source used by many brokers?

Do I assume correctly that your broker is the source of both your currency futures and s&P data?

Thank you sir!
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  • #118
  • Jan 25, 2006 10:29pm Jan 25, 2006 10:29pm
Quoting vegas
Dial,
1) What defines the days range?
Anytime from the start of Asia and you get to approximately 60 pips or more [this is for gbp/usd. Obviously it will be a little different for other pairs]. From here a 30 pip move would be needed to violate the 50% rule. The higher the range, the more dependable this 50% rule becomes.

2) The previous days action has no bearing except that it hit a fib level.

3) How much is partial?
Depending on how aggressive you want to be, I'd define it somewhere between 1/4 and 1/2 of your normal trade size
LOL! Thank you Vegas! You're answers are always a pleasant surprise; always different from anything I expect; and always appreciated! Thanks for sharing!

Dial
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  • #119
  • Jan 25, 2006 10:59pm Jan 25, 2006 10:59pm
Quoting accrete
Hi all. What a great read through these last few posts (94-106) !

I wanted to share something with the gang just for the record...

I know that there are many posts by myself on "tweaks" on the 4hr and vwbDaily, though most of my tweaks are simply myself trying to find a correlation between possible currency target-levels I.e. The FIBOs. In one particular post was the mention that I am a discretionary trader, and not a "system" or mechanical trader.

For myself, I rarely use anything other than FIBO data combined with candle-formation/price-action to enter a trade. I will, on a separate chart, have my RSI mentioned back in post #84 as my preferred "exit" indicator. Other than this indicator I rely mainly on formations/convergences as stated...even when looking at the 4hr method last week i was in a EUR trade prior to what the stock 4hr "model" recomended, i entered because my set rules of trading counter-trend-line breaks took place. The chart on the left is a 4hr chart with FIBOs set at 144 to match the stock 28 primary ma on the VWB Daily. As mentioned, in this example of a demo trade, i was looking at PA on a 4hr time frame to validate reasons to enter a trade that i would set my profit level off the VWB Daily chart. You will note that i changed some of the wording, such as the "Warning" to "Caution Zone". The red lines are manualy drawn trend lines, the yellow lines are my demo-trade entry with profit (set &) taken at the daily's 1.2291 FIB level.

(When i entered the below trade the stock 4hr on 55ma was screaming "Warning" as the ma's had recently crossed. So why did i set the 4hr chart below w/144ma as primary? My reasoning is this; IF my primary chart is the longer term Daily chart, and I believe in the Daily's MAs to be set correctly, then i will modify/set my smaller term chart's MA to help me visualize the chart's price action as it relates to the LT chart.) :

http://www.accrete.com/fx_posts/J13G...01-224hr_d.PNG

It was/is my intention when sharing my thoughts on correlating the FIBO levels between time-frames to show graphically which ma#S on a particular time frame matched within a handful of pips, the same levels on a larger time frame. I figured that I was not the only one that had the desire to know the answer. . . And found that a 55 ma on a 4hr chart matches closely to an 11 ma on a daily chart, OR that a 144 ma on a 4hr chart matches closely to an 28 ma on a daily chart. These were simple observations on my part and a desire to share what I'd learned while doodling. In each post I later added a disclaimer-statement that I did not trade off the modified "models", that they were simply additional "indicators" to assist me in trading off longer time frame charts that I was trying out at the time.

I will state that the shorter time frame FIBO tunnels which I quickly adapted from the original 4hr model were successful during a period of time in late 2005 on time frames under 60m for grabbing an average of 18-20 pips a day for several weeks during the experiment in my demo account while trading live-demo during the NY open session. The reason I am here (and specifically in the PF) is to learn to trade the larger time frame charts which is something I have been fearfull of as my initial training was on very short TF charts even down to 1m. Eye-see the future for myself MUST include trading from LT charts if I am to have a life at all outside the home w/family and friends.

Bottom line? I'm a nice guy at heart simply sharing what I've learned while doodling and would never wish that anything I shared was cause of someone loosing even a pip of profit in their trading. For myself, and I state again, FIBO levels facinate me, and seeing a correlation ACROSS time frames helps build my confidence when going into a trade.

I'm here to learn, share, and meet some like minded people hoping to make a better life for family and friends : - )
Hi Accrete,

As I stated earlier, I prefer to keep things simple and as close to the original Vegas documents as I can for fear of straying too far. As a subscriber to the PF you have had opportunity to read both the original Vegas 4 hour document, and my interpretation of it in the "Knife". I'm sure you'll agree that they are almost identical.

But all that is just me. As a PF subscriber, you also know that I encourage experimentation to come up with possible improvements to the system and to make the system fit each individual better.

That is why I was very happy when you posted your analysis of Fibs correlations across time frames. In fact, your "tinkerings" are so good, they prompted me to ask Merlin to expand my section of the PF to allow you and others to start new threads. I thought what you posted in the PF was (and is) worthy of having it's own thread. I hope to see more good posts from you, not only the fib correlations, but more on your short term application as well!

Thanks a ton and very much and all that appreciative jazz type stuff!!

Dial
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  • #120
  • Edited 11:34pm Jan 25, 2006 11:29pm | Edited 11:34pm
Quoting diallist
Hi Vegas,

How do you get the end of day S&P 500 charts in MetaTrader?

Which broker do you use? Is Globex a particular broker or a source used by many brokers?

Do I assume correctly that your broker is the source of both your currency futures and s&P data?

Thank you sir!
Dial,
To get an S&P chart in metatrader 4, do the following: 1) with your charts up, go up-top to tools>history center and then click on the daily S&P 500 to import the daily information. 2) Then go to file>open offline and a box pops up. Click on S&P 500 and the daily cash chart will now be opened. It will be updated every day after the close. Sometimes you have to close the app and then get backin to get the update.

Globex is the electronic exchange the Chicago Mercantile Exchange [CME] trades currency, short-term interest rate, and stock index futures. The futures are on a March, June, September, December cycle.

I recommend InterActive Brokers as my first choice to trade currency futures through Globex. Spreads are usually 1 pip but sometimes they can be 2 for the majors. Round-turn commission is $6 with no minimum volume/month requirements. This is the best deal you can find with a major house. As I have said before, I dont' know why anyone would trade spot forex with a 3 pip spread when you can trade futures [eur & gbp] at 1 pip spreads and $6 in fees. You can take a look at IB by going to the website

http://www.interactivebrokers.com

I suppose you can use a different data-feed, but I just use the default cash feed that metatrader provides for S&P 500.
vegas
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