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Silent Service Method

  • #10,581
  • Aug 31, 2010 8:21pm Aug 31, 2010 8:21pm
Quoting Pidgeon
While we are waiting for NFP, the US Holiday, and large banks to get back to trading in September, here's some things you can do this week instead of trading the Yen bottom which might not be a bottom....

1. Clean the garage

2. Paint houses at Ohio State (what, the college students can't do this?)

3. Work at your regular job, if you have one

4. Have an end of summer cookout or swim party

5. Attend a Tea party rally in D.C., or protest same

6. Short the Euro down to 1.25....
Classic, don't know why but that just lifted my day.
  • #10,582
  • Aug 31, 2010 8:46pm Aug 31, 2010 8:46pm
GS - You're welcome - I generally prefer my humor dry, with a squeeze of lime.
Disregard all prognostications.
  • #10,583
  • Sep 1, 2010 7:42am Sep 1, 2010 7:42am
Looks like we are going to get a little pop in the markets today. The EUR/USD is rising nicely, but it still needs to bust through 1.30 before I have any interest in going long. (Of course a nice bearish pinbar at that area would do nicely as well!) With NFP being only two short days away, I might be out of the markets until Monday, as I am flat at the moment.

Besides....I have a ton of "real" work to do. Ugh.
  • #10,584
  • Sep 1, 2010 11:20am Sep 1, 2010 11:20am
Quoting clockwork71
(Of course a nice bearish pinbar at that area would do nicely as well!)
That's what I am anticipating, but if not, then I'll pass, no forced trade
My edge ===> Patience
  • #10,585
  • Sep 1, 2010 6:10pm Sep 1, 2010 6:10pm
Something I noticed on the EUR/USD chart when I got home. Hmmm.....

I still don't like getting involved a couple of days ahead of NFP - but still.....
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  • #10,586
  • Sep 1, 2010 6:12pm Sep 1, 2010 6:12pm
Here is a stock I shorted after a member of the private group posted this chart. Classic really, a pinbar at a round number, and a 50/200 EMA crossover.....
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  • #10,587
  • Sep 1, 2010 10:08pm Sep 1, 2010 10:08pm
I've been watching this since price touched the upper trendline for the third time at the beginning of June and dropped like a stone. It's just bounced of the lower line and formed a daily pin at a support area. I'm reluctant to go counter-trend with this pair but there is definitely potential for a significant retrace if the triangle holds.....if the pin breaks I might apply those box trading rules and go long! Looking optimistically ahead, another test of the upper line could form a confluence with the Fib50/61.8 and the very strong support level around 1.1300 (1995,2004).

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Also, I'd like to echo what others have said about this being a very positive place for any trader to learn and offer their humble opinions. I don't post much but I often check-in to see what's happening and find it to be a little haven of common-sense and goodwill in the bewildering world of forex. In my experience it's a rare thing on the forum to find an environment where so many people contribute and bounce ideas around, have healthy discussion and a bit of a laugh, yet manage to maintain the integrity of the thread and the method itself - it's a credit to the regular posters and due in no small part to the generosity of Chris himself. Recent events elsewhere really emphasize the fact that this should never be taken for granted.

Thank you.
  • #10,588
  • Sep 1, 2010 10:54pm Sep 1, 2010 10:54pm
Quoting clockwork71
Something I noticed on the EUR/USD chart when I got home. Hmmm.....

I still don't like getting involved a couple of days ahead of NFP - but still.....

Don't worry, that chart will still be there on Monday
Now go paint some houses. I'll order one on Chittenden Ave, painted bright orange. Hehe. Good times...
Disregard all prognostications.
  • #10,589
  • Sep 1, 2010 10:58pm Sep 1, 2010 10:58pm
Quoting Pidgeon
Don't worry, that chart will still be there on Monday
Now go paint some houses. I'll order one on Chittenden Ave, painted bright orange. Hehe. Good times...

Haha. Chittenden is a hole. Lucky for me - I am there tomorrow! I spent most of the day on Summit today.

As far as bright orange, well.....we get those rooms from time to time as I am sure you can imagine. Always the art students......
  • #10,590
  • Sep 1, 2010 11:01pm Sep 1, 2010 11:01pm
Quoting Pipped
I've been watching this since price touched the upper trendline for the third time at the beginning of June and dropped like a stone....

Pipped, thanks for the kind words.

As far as your set up, I agree - its counter-trend, but seriously....I can't think of a better place to take a CT trade?

I have been watching that trend line myself, and could kick myself for not shorting it when we hit it a while back......

I like this chart, and they way you drew it for one main reason - it's DEAD OBVIOUS. That of course doesn't mean you can't lose trading it, just that it leaves little to the imagination.....and that's the way it should be.
  • #10,591
  • Sep 2, 2010 7:29pm Sep 2, 2010 7:29pm
Tomorrow is NFP, and as such.....you should be flat if you are not in a long term trade at the moment.

Tomorrow's number will be important, yet the real truth of the markets could come as late as Tuesday as Americans are away at holiday over the weekend.

I think you should have a great Labor Day weekend, hell....even if you are in Europe. Why not?

Do what the Americans do. Have a cookout, hang out by a lake. Get hammered. Fight with your cousins. And wake up with a ripping hangover on Monday, and a curiosity as to where in the hell your pants are!

I mean...why not?

  • #10,592
  • Sep 2, 2010 8:15pm Sep 2, 2010 8:15pm
Quoting clockwork71
...Have a cookout, hang out by a lake. Get hammered. Fight with your cousins. And wake up with a ripping hangover on Monday, and a curiosity as to where in the hell your pants are!

I mean...why not?

...More deep trading insight from our fearless leader. Amen brother.
Disregard all prognostications.
  • #10,593
  • Sep 2, 2010 8:29pm Sep 2, 2010 8:29pm
Don't know why but I still have the most trouble exiting a trade. I find I'm torn between not wanting to fall in love with a trade, looking for clear exit signals, and hanging in there to let the market "do it's thing" in order to hit the TP which technically should have a degree of rationale in its placement.

Point in case USD/JPY. We are getting into new lows territory and it's starting to look like it may carve out a new base. TP was just missed a couple of days ago and I'm starting to regret it. Stops have been tightened so I'll probably just sit tight and see if NFP can push it over the line.
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  • #10,594
  • Sep 2, 2010 8:44pm Sep 2, 2010 8:44pm
Quoting Pidgeon
...More deep trading insight from our fearless leader. Amen brother.
I see that you are from Ohio. I know you understand!

OSU is killing Marshall at the moment, which they should.
  • #10,595
  • Sep 2, 2010 8:48pm Sep 2, 2010 8:48pm
Quoting gsseen
Don't know why but I still have the most trouble exiting a trade. I find I'm torn between not wanting to fall in love with a trade, looking for clear exit signals, and hanging in there to let the market "do it's thing" in order to hit the TP which technically should have a degree of rationale in its placement.

Point in case USD/JPY. We are getting into new lows territory and it's starting to look like it may carve out a new base. TP was just missed a couple of days ago and I'm starting to regret it. Stops have been tightened so I'll probably...
You have the most trouble because exits are what makes the difference between a winning trader and a losing one.

Exits are without a doubt the #1 issue. As soon as you understand that anyone can get lucky and have a trade go their way....but only a few can milk a trade for what it is worth.

All you can do is set the stops at logical places and let it go. I look at it this way: Once I have locked in profits, its kind of like free money. I can't lose. So why worry about it?

Let it go.....to be honest, those three words are the best advice for a lot of things both trading and non-trading.

Hey - those three words worked for Def Leppard, back on High N Dry, before they had their sex changes in the late 80s.
  • #10,596
  • Sep 2, 2010 9:09pm Sep 2, 2010 9:09pm
Quoting clockwork71
You have the most trouble because exits are what makes the difference between a winning trader and a losing one.

Exits are without a doubt the #1 issue. As soon as you understand that anyone can get lucky and have a trade go their way....but only a few can milk a trade for what it is worth.

All you can do is set the stops at logical places and let it go. I look at it this way: Once I have locked in profits, its kind of like free money. I can't lose. So why worry about it?

Let it go.....to be honest, those three words are the best advice...
Thanks Chris, I know what you're saying. I've been mucking around quite a bit with "expectancy" in terms of how long I give the market to show its hand before I cut it off - the trade that is, not the hand lol.

Very difficult as obviously each trade is a special case and not all trades go into the black straight away for profits to be locked in. Sometimes trades can't be checked every 4 hours (trading off daily) and no one really likes to be tweaking the SL and TP on a regular basis - or do they?
  • #10,597
  • Sep 2, 2010 11:49pm Sep 2, 2010 11:49pm
Is it safe to say that the best entries with trendline breaks is if the trendline gets retested first?
  • #10,598
  • Sep 3, 2010 12:29am Sep 3, 2010 12:29am
Quoting albertsy2
Is it safe to say that the best entries with trendline breaks is if the trendline gets retested first?
Yes, but be warned, if you play a smaller TF retest-failure, it is likely to retest properly on a larger TF.

Ex: Last week I shorted EJ off of a TL break-retest on the M15 chart. It went 275 pips in my favor, with a substantial position size thanks the the tight SL the M15 entry gave me. A few days later I'm taken out at BE by a daily retest.

So if you're looking for a longer term trade, remember your entry will often be tested.
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And a video I stole from the comedy club thread: This s**t is just way too funny.....



Inserted Video
  • #10,599
  • Sep 3, 2010 7:44am Sep 3, 2010 7:44am
Hey Gang, looks like we might have a direction for the coming months...................NFP news good for US$ but pound and euro strengthening, very interesting.....what are your thoughts on this?

Quoting clockwork71
Tomorrow is NFP, and as such.....you should be flat if you are not in a long term trade at the moment.

Tomorrow's number will be important, yet the real truth of the markets could come as late as Tuesday as Americans are away at holiday over the weekend.

I think you should have a great Labor Day weekend, hell....even if you are in Europe. Why not?

Do what the Americans do. Have a cookout, hang out by a lake. Get hammered. Fight with your cousins. And wake up with a ripping hangover on Monday, and a curiosity as to where in the hell your pants...
  • #10,600
  • Sep 3, 2010 9:26am Sep 3, 2010 9:26am
I wouldn't say NFP by itself provides much of a direction. Mostly it provides news traders with something to do once a month. Especially when they just print the number from last month. It might even get revised later.

But I do think it's likely we might see a reversal of recent trends in the JPY and CHF. Both are sitting at historic lows which have marked bottoms in the past. But the bank traders will decide once trading resumes in earnest next week.
Disregard all prognostications.
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