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A Simple London Breakout V.2

  • #581
  • Aug 31, 2010 7:42am Aug 31, 2010 7:42am
Quoting squalou
i do get the correct box when i set my box time to match yours...
You are using the latest (v3.2a) version of the indi, as the previous one would not stick ANY box to the low side (the box next to your invalid one does stick to the low edge).
The Indi uses M1 data to determine the most precise hi/lo times, not the current chart's TF (M15), to try to prevent boxes where the hi and lo would be on the same M15 bar (where would we stick the box in that case ?).
Perhaps your M1 data is incomplete in that time area.
Try switching to M1 on...
squalou,

Sorry I missed your reply until now. The problem with the box is shown on the attached chart. The box on the left is out of position and is positioned for an up trend which is totally wrong. I will let you analyze this for a short time and I will then post my solution. Thanks again for your reply.

Johnny
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: std-box 08-31-10.jpg Size: 118 KB
  • #582
  • Aug 31, 2010 8:38am Aug 31, 2010 8:38am
Quoting JohnnyBSmart
squalou,

Sorry I missed your reply until now. The problem with the box is shown on the attached chart. The box on the left is out of position and is positioned for an up trend which is totally wrong. I will let you analyze this for a short time and I will then post my solution. Thanks again for your reply.

Johnny
johnny,

you sound like a "university professor" during a "practice session" ...
" I know you can do it... just twist your brains a bit more, you WILL get something out of it..."

Ok, so, what's wrong with that left box position in the chart you just posted ?
It sticks to the lowest-bar-which-comes-after-the-highest-bar, and that matches your suggestion in post #469, unless i misunderstood it.
The right box is also correct according to this rule, but you didn't seem to bother about that one...

Again, here is your quote from post #469:

Quoting JohnnyBSmart
If the box extents is recoded so the High or Low whichever came last is the bottom or the top of the box and the box is extended from that point would be a better box position.
I interpreted that sentence as:
- if the lowest bar in the box comes after the highest bar, then stick the bottom of the box to the lowest low;
- if the highest bar in the box comes after the lowest bar, then stick the top of the box to the highest high;


What am i missing ?
Another (hidden) rule probably...

How do you distinguish the 2 boxes in your pix then ?
They both stick to the lowest low, which is the one that came last.


However, i agree that the left box on your pix in post #515 is incorrectly positionned, but i still don't have an explanation for that other than "incomplete history data", or, "you have modified the Indicator code".

?


SQ
  • #583
  • Edited 5:28pm Aug 31, 2010 4:21pm | Edited 5:28pm
Quoting squalou
johnny,


Ok, so, what's wrong with that left box position in the chart you just posted ?
squalou,

Hey wait a minute here. Just because Mer has taken a vacation doesn't mean you can pick on me, that's his job. Besides this is serious business so let's think about a solution to the problem. First and foremost quit sleeping in class and look at the last chart I posted again. Yes it has stuck to the last bar but it is still not correct as far as maximizing our pip gain.

This is how I meant the box to be placed:

- if the lowest bar in the time span left to right comes after the highest bar, then stick the bottom of the box to the lowest low;
- if the highest bar in the time span left to right comes after the lowest bar, then stick the top of the box to the highest high;

This is why some box placements are out of whack. I believe the code "Maxpips" is defining the box too soon and the code should only be looking at the highest high and the lowest low with no MaxPips screwing up the placement of the box. Once we find the extreme high or low then we place the box with the MaxPips restriction from the extreme point. But enough of that as we are still not placing the box in the correct position.

The last chart I posted placed the box in the correct position as I requested but if you look at the trend from the previous major pivot point we could have placed the box in a better position. My post was to get everybody thinking and some feed back. It was a surprise quiz and you failed it but I'll give you another chance with the book open so continue on reading.

Please understand I'm not the coder you are as this is my first attempt at looking at the MT4 code. It has been two years since I attempted coding and back then I had a son in college taking courses who advised me when I got stuck. He has since moved out of state and fallen in love which makes him totally unavailable. He is totally focused on other things. I've been recovering from surgery and am just limping along and sometimes in a pain killer haze.

As I stated in my original request before you changed the code was that the top and bottom box extents(excluding MaxPips adjustment), could be resistance or support lines and that the price movement will just as likely bounce off these lines as go through them. This is a the key to the placement of the box. Placement of the box where there is no S or R is just wasting pips.

Placement of the SL should be above the last point of resistance or below the last point of support. Understand that major points of resistance or support is what we are looking for as minor SRs will likely be breached with only slight hesitation or a small reversal by the PA.

With the clear understanding of the most desirable box placement and considering all factors such as the SRs and the SL where are the best places for the two boxes on the chart to be located?

Rule #1

The top or bottom of the box should be placed on a support or resistance line and a major point of SR is the most desirable.

Rule #2

The StopLoss should be placed above the point of resistance or below the point of support.

Let's look at the box on the left first. With the trend obviously on a sharp downtrend the placement of the box below or on the SMA-9 (Magenta) line is just plain crazy and is asking for a losing trade which is exactly what transpired as the PA moved up to hit the BUY LINE and then promptly reversed to continue the downward trend. Following the rules laid out above the only logical placement is the highest high with the BOTTOM of the box at the point of resistance. The top of the box providing the stoploss. As you can see we don't need 30 - 50 pips of stoploss and we don't have to wait 30-50 pips before a trade is made thus eliminating numerous losing trades in the future.

Now let's review the box on the right which is a classic hit of a very major reversal point at 1.2625. Anybody who can read a chart would have placed the S1 at 1.2625 way before the PA actually got there. The PA hit this point to the very pip and bounced like a rubber ball. The PA bouncing off of 1.2625 was not a chance occurrence but a very foreseeable point of reversal. Only new traders would have been caught with their pants down here. If any of you got caught it shows your lack of pre-trade planning and chart reading. Trust me here if I can do it so can you. It just ain't that hard to learn.

The placement of the box here is again quite logical as this is a major line of support. The TOP of the box should be on the 1.2625 line of support with the bottom of the box our stoploss. What is the chance our stoploss will get hit? Zilch!!! And that's a beautiful thing.

Now you're are wondering where do I put my buy and sell points right? It's quite simply the pivot point. If you place the point of the box at the pivot point and have the start of the breakout float to that point you're in the money one tic from the pivot. Now the pivot does not show as a pivot on a pivot indicator for at least one bar and some indicators three or four bars but there are other ways to see the point of price exhaustion. Even if it takes you a couple of bars to make the trade you're still way ahead of the game.

Attached is the revised chart. The reason the box is so small is that's the only way I can get it to work at this time. This also brings up the issue with the Take Profit lines being a factor of the box size. The box size should have no bearing on the profit lines except they should begin at the pivot point. The user should be able to set his profit lines wherever they so desire. I also would suggest more profit lines as five is somewhat limited.

Johnny
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jbs-box 08-31-10.jpg Size: 172 KB
  • #584
  • Edited 5:37pm Aug 31, 2010 4:56pm | Edited 5:37pm
Squalou,

Please understand this is not to belittle you or Mer or any of either one of your ideas but only to make the system better with an exchange of knowledge and ideas.

On post number 498 Mer posted the results for 8-25-2010. Please compare that to the chart posted below. You will not find any losers with my proposed method nor will you ever unless the price totally reverses faster then a speeding bullet. This trading method is a function of the markets known reversal points and thus the actual placement of the box should be placed at these points regardless of the time. Please note the pivot occurred one and one-half hours before the London Open on the attached chart but this is where the box should be placed.

If the major reversal starts one hour before the London open or one hour after then that is where the pivot is located. Time is not the major factor here and is only an approximation of when an event is likely to happen. It is volume combined with market sentiment that moves the market in a particular direction.

We are attempting to capture the momentum of a major move to put a ton of pips into our trading accounts. With this goal in mind why place the box on a minor pivot if it is likely to only bring us pain and a loss of pips. Putting the box on a minor pivot and totally on the wrong side of the prevailing trend is only going to get the trade stopped out.

As I have stated before in a previous posts, if you concentrate on eliminating the losing trades and ignore the winners you will get to the promised land and reap the rewards. Without the need for the Martingale as you will soon realize.

To make the comparison easier to view I've included a copy of Mer's 8-25-2010 EURUSD chart below.

Johnny
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jbs-box 08-25-10.jpg Size: 187 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Mer-eurusd 08-25-2010.jpg Size: 93 KB
  • #585
  • Aug 31, 2010 5:34pm Aug 31, 2010 5:34pm
ohnnyBgood work as always. its easy to see the thinkers from the followers.

this logic is good, but how does one define the turning point or if the BOX moves with the PA how do we define the box?

also can u post ur template so i dont have to try to replicate. zigs, ma's, semophores??

thnx to all the contrubiters.
  • #586
  • Aug 31, 2010 6:17pm Aug 31, 2010 6:17pm
Quoting jimnz
ohnnyBgood work as always. its easy to see the thinkers from the followers.

this logic is good, but how does one define the turning point or if the BOX moves with the PA how do we define the box?

also can u post ur template so i dont have to try to replicate. zigs, ma's, semophores??

thnx to all the contrubiters.
jimnz,

Thanks but understand this is all discussion at this point. The boxes drawn on my chart were buys and take profit areas. As far as defining the box that's quite easy to see as I wrote in my post. The indicators as well as Support and Resistance levels will show you when the PA is about to reverse.

Here are the template and indicators.

Johnny
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl jbs-.tpl   235 KB | 660 downloads
File Type: ex4 nonlagzigzag_v2.ex4   8 KB | 584 downloads
File Type: mq4 nonlagzigzag_v2.mq4   6 KB | 647 downloads
File Type: ex4 StochasticHigh.ex4   4 KB | 563 downloads
File Type: mq4 StochasticHigh.mq4   4 KB | 635 downloads
File Type: ex4 StochasticLow.ex4   4 KB | 521 downloads
File Type: mq4 StochasticLow.mq4   4 KB | 645 downloads
  • #587
  • Edited 9:49pm Aug 31, 2010 6:21pm | Edited 9:49pm
jimnz,

Here are the remainder of the indicators. These show the pivot points which I only used to show where they occurred and I am not implying to trade off these. They will not show up when you actually need to make the trade and they will repaint. That said you don't have to hit the nail on the head to make this a profitable trading method. If the pivot repaints and you're already in the trade then move the box. The important thing is to have the box on the line of support or resistance as the trade progresses.

Good Luck,

Johnny
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 3_Level_ZZ_Ofset_Semafor.ex4   8 KB | 550 downloads
File Type: mq4 3_Level_ZZ_Ofset_Semafor.mq4   8 KB | 629 downloads
  • #588
  • Sep 1, 2010 2:44am Sep 1, 2010 2:44am
Quoting JohnnyBSmart
jimnz,

Here are the remainder of the indicators. These show the pivot points which I only used to show where they occurred and I am not implying to trade off these. They will not show up when you actually need to make the trade and they will repaint. That said you don't have to hit the nail on the head to make this a profitable trading method. If the pivot repaints and you're already in the trade then move the box. The important thing is to have the box on the line of support or resistance as the trade progresses.

Good Luck,

Johnny
...
Hello JohnnyBSmart,
you do not specify an indicator (Breakout Indicator V.3.2a-R1-JBP)
new Box no open, on the london session by your rules
Big thank.
Vitali
  • #589
  • Sep 1, 2010 2:55am Sep 1, 2010 2:55am
  •  zykas
  • | Joined Oct 2008 | Status: ... measure thrice, but cut once | 196 Posts
I love this strategy ... Thanks to the men behind it
I like the Big Dogs because I trade like them
  • #590
  • Sep 1, 2010 7:44am Sep 1, 2010 7:44am
Hi guys!

I have just one question. Can one use Squalou's original '3 tier strategy EA' on two USDJPY M15 charts at the same time without changing the Magic Number on one of them?
Thanks to mer for starting this thread.
Squalou, I really admire your coding skills and the work you did with this strategy. Keep it up guys!
  • #591
  • Sep 1, 2010 7:49am Sep 1, 2010 7:49am
Quoting Cape Cobra
Hi guys!

I have just one question. Can one use Squalou's original '3 tier strategy EA' on two USDJPY M15 charts at the same time without changing the Magic Number on one of them?
Thanks to mer for starting this thread.
Squalou, I really admire your coding skills and the work you did with this strategy. Keep it up guys!
The automatic magic number (when MagicNumber input is 0) is generated based on pair+timeframe+"objPrefix";
Same pair+same timeframe means same magics, unless objPrefix input is different.

If you don't want to change the magic, then you need to change the "objPrefix".

SQ
  • #592
  • Sep 1, 2010 11:09am Sep 1, 2010 11:09am
Quoting vuser06
Hello JohnnyBSmart,
you do not specify an indicator (Breakout Indicator V.3.2a-R1-JBP)
new Box no open, on the london session by your rules
Big thank.
Vitali
vuser06,

That indicator is incomplete and even if it was complete this is Mer,s and Squalou's thread. They may find objection with me posting a different version. My post was for discussion only. You can download the V.3.2a version indicator. Maybe Squalou will see fit to post an optional indicator for those interested. It is not my call.

Cheers,

Johnny
  • #593
  • Sep 1, 2010 12:19pm Sep 1, 2010 12:19pm
Quoting JohnnyBSmart
squalou,

Hey wait a minute here. Just because Mer has taken a vacation doesn't mean you can pick on me, that's his job. Besides this is serious business so let's think about a solution to the problem. First and foremost quit sleeping in class and look at the last chart I posted again. Yes it has stuck to the last bar but it is still not correct as far as maximizing our pip gain.

This is how I meant the box to be placed:

- if the lowest bar in the time span left to right comes after the highest bar, then stick the...
NOW you're talking !!!

I have now moved from "intrigued" to "all ears open" :nerd:

Let me just summarize Mer's strategy to lay things down clearly for everyone.

The Breakout Box is based on the observation that market opening (London open for GU or EU) brings increased volatility, volume, and price action, compared to the calm few hours prior to the market opening.
The breakout strategy tries to take advantage of this increasing price action by hoping that price will break through the calm zone's high/low range, and price will fly away from it.
The box high/low are set to highest/lowest price action during the few hours prior to market open, which can be seen as "local" (weak/minor?) support (box low) and resistance (box high) levels.
We buy if the resistance is broken, sell if support is broken.
That's for the BO mode.
CT (CounterTrend) mode assumes that price will bounce on the support or resistance rather than breaking through them. We trade inside the box rather than outside.

The box is built using a fixed/arbitrary time range, supposed to give us enough pre-breakout price action to create our SR levels, and ending close enough to the breakout event itself.


Now back to your suggestions.

Your examples suggest that price will likely bounce on the SR levels, so you place your box outside the latest SR level, right next to it.
This will show where your stop is, which is fine.
However, it doesn't yet show where you would enter -- as price has already started to bounce on the SR level that forms the edge of the box, we are already too late to enter.
Or, as you suggested, we wait for a few (2 or 3) bars to confirm that price has bounced for sure, draw the box at that time, and enter a trade.
We are already away from the box edge, but we are still ahead compared to using Mer's box, on which we would be somewhere inside the box, waiting for price to break the other edge before finally entering (and too late, if i hear you well).

A clarification: you're talking about using the "pivot point".
By "pivot point", do you rather mean "swing(reversal) point" ?
To me, "pivot" is the half price between a high swing point and a low swing point ( daily pivot = (daily high + daily low) / 2 ).


The other question is: how do we determine that a swing point is "major" or not ?
You gave as an example on aug. 31 the "so obvious" 1.2625 major support level...
Don't get me wrong in my next few lines, i want this to be constructive.
Here it is.
Looking at the chart again, i can't see what's so obvious there...
To me, "major" SR levels are past unbroken/untested swing/reversal points, and/or 00 or 50 round numbers (RN).
1.2625 is the farthest that can be from a 00 and 50 RN...
Look at an H1 chart, zoom out, you'll see that the nearest unbroken/untested support level, before aug. 31, is 1.2609 on aug. 25, or 1.2588 on aug. 24.

So 1.2600 would clearly qualify as major support.
Where am i wrong ?

Can you explain how you ended up with 1.2625 being so major to your eyes ?


SQ
  • #594
  • Sep 1, 2010 2:48pm Sep 1, 2010 2:48pm
Here is my comments on the following two points,

Quoting JohnnyBSmart
Rule #1

The top or bottom of the box should be placed on a support or resistance line and a major point of SR is the most desirable.
Johnny
I believe this is the worst place for the box. It will keep bouncing, thus potentially exponentially increasing false signals.

Quoting JohnnyBSmart
Rule #2

The StopLoss should be placed above the point of resistance or below the point of support.
Johnny
I believe the more you go in this direction, the further away from the LBO essence you'll get, and the closer to a traditional Sup/Res BreakOut strategy.

However, I do agree with the use of Support and Resistance ..... but to adjust whether the box size, or adjust the Take Profits.

Now Squalou,
Quoting squalou
Let me just summarize Mer's strategy to lay things down clearly for everyone.

The Breakout Box is based on the observation that market opening (London open for GU or EU) brings increased volatility, volume, and price action, compared to the calm few hours prior to the market opening. The breakout strategy tries to take advantage of this increasing price action by hoping that price will break through the calm zone's high/low range, and price will fly away from it.
Actually, my understanding on the system ... IF it is active after 2pm London Time (that is in between 7-9am EST ... yes you see me coming) ... then Mer's BreakOut is actually taking the pips out of a potential session breakout at the London Open AND doing same for the BigDog BreakOut (for which the box may not be optimal ... yes you see me coming too).

I leave it there. That explains everything I use while trading mer's strategy and I'm sure you understand everything I meant by this.
  • #595
  • Sep 1, 2010 5:34pm Sep 1, 2010 5:34pm
gd brainstorming,
id like to see the "anytime BO" stategy with the threads "box" methods combined more.
i see too many false BO's from just trading the calm of the asian to the vigor of the london. if we can define the trend reversals better, this could be a real winner.
i under usint the semofores to show extended trends, major SR for possible reversals, but we never know if they will stick. how about getting the EA to move the box auto.?

EG: once we get a "2 or 3" semafore, the box appears, top of box on top of price + 5 pips (sl) and bottom of box (entry) on a fixed pips, ATR, last low+5 ect.
Once the trend fails, takes our entry, start a TS?
This requires a trending market and a range forming at the "pivot" will kill the trade, so adx to filter ranges?
Sorry for directing off topic a bit and i know a complex EA may not be the direction to go , don’t want to sound like a cheap EA seller. Just throwing out thoughts
  • #596
  • Sep 1, 2010 6:25pm Sep 1, 2010 6:25pm
this may be of interest. sort of applies

the indi shows S/R and draws and enter point on reversal.
the mid lines are fibs
i add semafores 2 & 3

again slightly off topic but still applies to CT trades
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tro.jpg Size: 26 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 TRO2009_SR_RR.mq4   43 KB | 629 downloads
  • #597
  • Sep 1, 2010 7:36pm Sep 1, 2010 7:36pm
Hello squalou,

Thanks for your response.

[quote=squalou;3993721]NOW you're talking !!!

I have now moved from "intrigued" to "all ears open" :nerd:

Let me just summarize Mer's strategy to lay things down clearly for everyone.

The Breakout Box is based on the observation that market opening (London open for GU or EU) brings increased volatility, volume, and price action, compared to the calm few hours prior to the market opening.
The breakout strategy tries to take advantage of this increasing price action by hoping that price will break through the calm zone's high/low range, and price will fly away from it.
The box high/low are set to highest/lowest price action during the few hours prior to market open, which can be seen as "local" (weak/minor?) support (box low) and resistance (box high) levels.
We buy if the resistance is broken, sell if support is broken.
That's for the BO mode.

Your statement above has the word "hoping" in it which I don't use when discussing Forex methods or systems. If I have to hope a trade will happen I simply don't make the trade. Please understand I'm not being adversarial with that statement. I have developed a system that has proved to be 100% accurate which shows the probability of success at any given time.

Without the determination of the high and low as minor or major then strong price action prior to the open is completely ignored and thus a great opportunity for profit is lost. Adversely if a weak support and resistance is found within the box extents then a counter trend move could actually be happening which could be very weak and result in a losing trade. This is what I've seen occurring.

CT (CounterTrend) mode assumes that price will bounce on the support or resistance rather than breaking through them. We trade inside the box rather than outside.

There you go you need to think and trade outside the box. Sorry I just could'nt resist it.

You are doing this with absolutely no knowledge if the high and low is anything but minor support and resistance which the PA will blow through these like they aren't even there.

The box is built using a fixed/arbitrary time range, supposed to give us enough pre-breakout price action to create our SR levels, and ending close enough to the breakout event itself.

The box is built around the assumption that time equals price movement which has some historical truth due to an increase in trading activity after the Open. The fallacy with this assumption is time also equals direction which it does not and hence the hope factor. The fact that the price usually reverses before or after the Open is well documented but time will always be a variable as well as strength of move. If a reversal has already taken place it is easy to see and if a move off a previous reversal point is about exhausted this too is easy to see meaning a reversal is going to happen shortly. So why dive off a cliff when you know the tide is going out and not in towards shore?

Now back to your suggestions.

Your examples suggest that price will likely bounce on the SR levels, so you place your box outside the latest SR level, right next to it.
This will show where your stop is, which is fine.

The top or bottom of the box is put on the SR with the Stop Loss below support or above resistance if you are inclined to use a Stop Loss. I choose not use them.

However, it doesn't yet show where you would enter -- as price has already started to bounce on the SR level that forms the edge of the box, we are already too late to enter.

I start trading three hours before the London Open. So get up a little earlier to catch the Major reversal point.

Or, as you suggested, we wait for a few (2 or 3) bars to confirm that price has bounced for sure, draw the box at that time, and enter a trade.
We are already away from the box edge, but we are still ahead compared to using Mer's box, on which we would be somewhere inside the box, waiting for price to break the other edge before finally entering (and too late, if i hear you well).

If you don't use anything to confirm the move then waiting to visually see the move is all you have.

If the PA starts up at the extreme bottom of Mer's box and the box is set at 50 pips due to the high and low this amount of pips has to be over come before a long trade is initiated. If the PA only moves beyond the buy point 45 pips and misses the 50 pip TP1 and then reverses we end up with 50 + 45 or 95 pips of PA movement and nothing to show for it plus the cost of the trade. My method gives you most of the 50 pips less only the confirmation of the trade + most of the 45 pips as my TP1 is at 30 pips and my TP2 is at 45 pips. The 20-50 pip loss of profit occurs on most of the first trades with Mer's method. If you don't trust your SRs why use them to place the box?

A clarification: you're talking about using the "pivot point".
By "pivot point", do you rather mean "swing(reversal) point" ?
To me, "pivot" is the half price between a high swing point and a low swing point ( daily pivot = (daily high + daily low) / 2 ).

The semantics is irrelevant. Call it the point at which the PA has changed direction. The cardinal or crucial point. Whether this is a change of the overall trend is yet to be known and maybe only a short term reversal is about to take place which so often is showing up in Mer's method. Having to use the Martingale system to attain profitability sends a very strong signal to me that a change is needed.


The other question is: how do we determine that a swing point is "major" or not ?
You gave as an example on aug. 31 the "so obvious" 1.2625 major support level...
Don't get me wrong in my next few lines, i want this to be constructive.
Here it is.
Looking at the chart again, i can't see what's so obvious there...
To me, "major" SR levels are past unbroken/untested swing/reversal points, and/or 00 or 50 round numbers (RN).
1.2625 is the farthest that can be from a 00 and 50 RN...
Look at an H1 chart, zoom out, you'll see that the nearest unbroken/untested support level, before aug. 31, is 1.2609 on aug. 25, or 1.2588 on aug. 24.

So 1.2600 would clearly qualify as major support.
Where am i wrong ?

Can you explain how you ended up with 1.2625 being so major to your eyes ?

If you look at the Daily chart you will notice an eight day period from early July to mid July the pair was hovering around the 50% fib retracement level. This level again proved to be a strong support level on August 4, 2010. The 50% level was 1.2625 and again on the 31st of August it bounced off this level. The surprise would have been if the PA broke down and through. All this and no crystal ball who would have thunk it. Just kidding but it's not that difficult. You have to go back to June 7, 2010 to find the reversal point. Put the Fib indicator from this point to the high on August 6, 2010.

I use the stochastics and the bols to tell me the price has exhausted it's run and is about to reverse. The degree of angle is very important factor and a counter trend trade is not taken just because the PA has come back under the bols band. If a counter trend trade is taken then a likely take profit is the center of the bols but only on a retrace move to allow the PA to hit the opposite Bols Band. I have two Stochastics indicators and a Momentum indicator placed in one panel. One is for the high and the other is for the low. If both come together at the same time at a high (100) or a low(0) with Stochastic "D" and Mom confirming then its take profit time. A counter move may only retrace to the center bols as stated above but extremely rare is a loss.

The take profit lines are not based on the Fibs but the Fib retracement lines are on my chart. Buy or Sell stops can be placed as the PA continues its run to catch a reverse of direction. Once a reverse starts it is often very fast and furious. I still believe letting your winners run is the best way to increase your profits instead of the arbitrary set profit levels.

Thanks,

Johnny
  • #598
  • Sep 1, 2010 10:13pm Sep 1, 2010 10:13pm
Quoting JohnnyBSmart
Your statement above has the word "hoping" in it which I don't use when discussing Forex methods or systems. If I have to hope a trade will happen I simply don't make the trade. Please understand I'm not being adversarial with that statement. I have developed a system that has proved to be 100% accurate which shows the probability of success at any given time.

Johnny
Please read my previous as per putting the box at SR .... bad idea.

for the 100% accurate that shows probability of success .... if it shows anything else than 100%, then you have a bug Come on Johnny, did you succeed in modeling human emotions .... if so you should talk to DARPA, I'm sure they'd be interested.

No seriously, I agree with the concept of SR ... but don't over do it.

I already tried multiple add-ons to Squalou's codes (and Mer's method in extent), and I may say that up to now, nothing passes a 2004 till now backtest except using the original method with appropriate parameters.

What would be nice Johnny is you provide daily chart of your trades with a box placed at SR without any StopLoss (come on again ... whether you put one, or you stick in front of your computer and be a human StopLoss .... I would accept you mentioning a dynamic StopLoss based on SR and Risk ratio). I wonder what would really happen.

I may add .... you told Squalou about "fallacies" regarding time and price action/direction (I think you went strong on him so I allow myself for the next comment) ..... but my friend .... what is Support and Resistance to you (don't tell anyone, I think a reversal is a price action direction for a given time period) ? Ooops .
  • #599
  • Sep 1, 2010 10:38pm Sep 1, 2010 10:38pm
xmph,

THE BOX.

 Some want a little box and some want it big.
Some can't decide as they're new to this gig.
Some want to trade the box as prescribed.
Others are questioning and need to be bribed.
Some want to trade with the box in the middle.
With others it seems like an insolvable riddle.
I'd like the box out of the way.
So think about it what do ya say.
Convincing you all of the box position,
is becoming quite a proposition.
But until that time of agreement has come and past,
we'll continue this discussion until the last.

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I believe this is the worst place for the box. It will keep bouncing, thus potentially exponentially increasing false signals.
Please review the attached chart. What can be better then this? Do you see any losses? Any reversals back to the box? Any stoploss hits? Please show me a better way if you have one. BTW the box doesn't bounce.

If the placement of the box is the top of the box on a major low reversal point why would you believe the price will go anywhere near it. Even if the price does retrace to this point, if the price doesn't touch the stoploss above this level it will never take out the trade. The whole point of this placement is to take the box out of the picture and to create a stop loss for the initial trade. Once the first trade has completed the box has no further use and the Take Profit Levels take over as the points of buy and sell.

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I believe the more you go in this direction, the further away from the LBO essence you'll get, and the closer to a traditional Sup/Res BreakOut strategy.
How can you say this? You are confusing time, the London Open, with good trading methods. Placement of the box is critical to get a strong price movement and correct direction of the initial trade. With the first trade being directionally challenged we are then looking to recoup the losses and enter into high risks trades with the Martingale. This method is a momentum system attempting to jump on the increased movement of the PA due to volume. If we can only get the program going in the right direction it can't lose with or without the Martingale system.

My initial suggestion of moving the box has helped where the price was at a major reversal point. This suggestion moves the box out of harms way so to speak and also eliminates the need to wait to the top or bottom of the box to place a trade. The waiting for the price to move to the top or bottom of the box is just lost profit opportunity.

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However, I do agree with the use of Support and Resistance ..... but to adjust whether the box size, or adjust the Take Profits.
The Take Profit positions are being adjusted on every new London Open which is being based on prior high and low over a user defined time period. What is the logic behind this? Please tell me as the answer is eluding me.

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Actually, my understanding on the system ... IF it is active after 2pm London Time (that is in between 7-9am EST ... yes you see me coming) ... then Mer's BreakOut is actually taking the pips out of a potential session breakout at the London Open AND doing same for the BigDog BreakOut (for which the box may not be optimal ... yes you see me coming too).
If the logic for determining the size of the Box was valid then it would be valid on the NY Open and the Asian Open. The fact is the Frankfort Open to the Close has little or no validity to determining the size of the box on the London Open no more then then phase of the moon and if it does I'd like to here the explanation.

I'm not trying to be smart here but the size of the box, TP levels, the placement of the box and how the initial trade is made is questionable in my mind and others I'm sure. This is the whole reason why we are discussing it so improvements can be made as new ideas are presented.

Yes we can as Mer has suggested, change the box size to whatever and place the box wherever but the problem is still how the box is placed. I can only get the box where I want it by changing the code which is not an option for everybody. I believe a simple trend formula may also help with the box placement as even as it is now a one bar difference in start or end location and the box could go from above to below the trend. Now this alone would not change the way of the PA and it has so far to go anyway to become a trade the placement of the box isn't that big a deal.

Happy trading,

Johnny
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #600
  • Sep 1, 2010 11:03pm Sep 1, 2010 11:03pm
Johnny will you care to share your 100% accurate system?

Quoting JohnnyBSmart

Your statement above has the word "hoping" in it which I don't use when discussing Forex methods or systems. If I have to hope a trade will happen I simply don't make the trade. Please understand I'm not being adversarial with that statement. I have developed a system that has proved to be 100% accurate which shows the probability of success at any given time.
Johnny
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