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Perfect Head&Shoulder in Dow >> Massive Crash Again

  • #141
  • Aug 26, 2010 8:10pm Aug 26, 2010 8:10pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/the-hindenburg-omen-is-scary-but-so-are-the-fundamentals-535367.html?tickers=^DJI,^GSPC,XLF,FXE,XHB,TLT,GLD

Not that I'm adding fuel to the fire
  • #142
  • Aug 26, 2010 8:21pm Aug 26, 2010 8:21pm
Quoting Fundu567
Hi

That's a really cool signal. we may see the DOW hitting the new of low of 9300 in 2010.
Theres nothing cool about that.. And ditto to Darkstars comments in this thread...
Time hides Nothing
  • #143
  • Sep 1, 2010 1:27pm Sep 1, 2010 1:27pm
My index shorts closed to BE between friday and today.
Oh well.
Just made 18 +10 +10 +10 +10 pips on EURUSD
  • #144
  • Sep 1, 2010 2:18pm Sep 1, 2010 2:18pm
ohh, look, there's an inverted head&shoulders pattern forming in S&P500...

what to do, what to do ???

So, which one is it, you technical gurus ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #145
  • Sep 5, 2010 12:37pm Sep 5, 2010 12:37pm
Now that the end of August came and went, I think it's time we compare notes. Spiderforex said:
Quoting spiderforex
People were earlier skeptical about H&S pattern, but after seeing the results live, we know H&S is 90% accurate and on monthly and weekly charts its 100% accurate.

...

I'm seeing H&S on DOW monthly chart, which is very very bad, by July and August 2010, DOW could crash massively there by taking all of the world economy with it....cos it is already dangling at 10,000 mark, any lower and it would fall below 4000.
After posting his charts and telling us that the end is neigh... I called him an idiot. Some back and forth ensued and we finally decided to just wait and see...

On August 12, our local Nostradamus declared all is on track and the drop is imminent. I said lets wait until the end of the month.

Well, the end of the month came and went with no precipitous drop in the dow. Comically, price broke the H&S neckline as spiderforex predicted it would, but went on to reverse and make another right shoulder. Here is the chart:

http://www.darkstarforex.com/dow4000.png


So hopefully we have all learned a few things; like never make giant price swing predictions based on technical patterns, H&S patterns can and do fail (even on high timeframes), and no matter what someone has predicted in the past it doesn't mean they will be right this time.

Now inevitably Spiderforex is going to come back and say that he is still right and that we just have to wait a little longer. That may be true, but the prediction was by august, so he was wrong and I think I would be well within my right to remind him that (as I predicted) he in fact DID turn out to be an idiot.

However, in the spirit of fairness, if the dow falls to 4000 at any time in the next 6 months, I will offer up my apology for calling him an idiot.

Until then, I would strongly caution everyone to take his predictions with a grain of salt.

Luck be with you.
  • #146
  • Sep 5, 2010 2:07pm Sep 5, 2010 2:07pm
Quoting Darkstar
However, in the spirit of fairness, if the dow falls to 4000 at any time in the next 6 months, I will offer up my apology for calling him an idiot.
Now that's the secret about predictions ! Always always always have an escape route
  • #147
  • Sep 5, 2010 3:42pm Sep 5, 2010 3:42pm
A lot of wrong statistics here. H&S success-rate are far away from the accuracy-rate shared in this thread. In my experience, its much closer to 50% than 90%. Yet, its the most popular pattern among newcomers in TA. Forget about any 100% patterns, it doesn't and will never exist.

Its strange how much emotions some put into their analyzes. Either it works or it doesn't. You lose a % or two of your account and move on.

Many pattern who seems 100% perfect can turn out to be a disaster to trade. Luckily, in some cases, warning-signals are given. Thats why threads like this doesn't serve much purpose.

A good example might be usd/chf. According to my own analyses, this rate could be near its very bottom. So I'm planing to risk 2% of my account trying to catch the bottom of the monthly triangle. Either it works or it doesn't. It's that simple.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #148
  • Sep 5, 2010 3:48pm Sep 5, 2010 3:48pm
Btw, if you want to play with a H&S pattern in the future, I'd suggest trying to short (in this case) from a horizontal line drawn from the first (right in this case) shoulder formed instead of the neckline breakout.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #149
  • Sep 6, 2010 10:23am Sep 6, 2010 10:23am
Quoting Darkstar
Now that the end of August came and went, I think it's time we compare notes. Spiderforex said:


After posting his charts and telling us that the end is neigh... I called him an idiot. Some back and forth ensued and we finally decided to just wait and see...

On August 12, our local Nostradamus declared all is on track and the drop is imminent. I said lets wait until the end of the month.

[color=black][font=Verdana]Well,...
Still waitin on that dude's response for some nice entertainment
  • #150
  • Sep 6, 2010 12:10pm Sep 6, 2010 12:10pm
Quoting Sim
Still waitin on that dude's response for some nice entertainment
While waiting for that, why don't you share your views on the topic? Personally, I think that both spiderforex and Darkstar are way off the mark. What do you think?
  • #151
  • Sep 6, 2010 12:46pm Sep 6, 2010 12:46pm
Quoting medici
While waiting for that, why don't you share your views on the topic? Personally, I think that both spiderforex and Darkstar are way off the mark. What do you think?
Ahh long-term charts I don't think I've ever looked at anything above m15 with real intention of trading or forecasting. Couple that with me having never loaded a non-FX chart up, and I bet you won't want to know my views on the topic haha! You know me well, I just trade the charts and timeframe infront of me, however knowing about your style, and great range of markets you observe, I would much rather hear your ideas on the matter.
  • #152
  • Sep 23, 2010 11:58am Sep 23, 2010 11:58am
NOW, spiderforex, the H&S pattern has been been completed.

Do these patterns have predictive value? Andy Lo of MIT sifted through 31 years of stock market data and found the answer to be yes. Study published in Journal of Finance in August 2000.

And the divergence displayed is strong indeed.

So if we are to believe this then...

Inserted Video
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  • #153
  • Edited Nov 12, 2010 7:28am Nov 11, 2010 4:49pm | Edited Nov 12, 2010 7:28am
TICK TOCK. TICK TOCK.

I've been waiting in my bomb shelter with bottled water and canned spam!

Where's my crash? I was about to start dressing in black leather and a leg brace and cruise the highways for overturned lorrys scavenging for petrol.

Oh, Nostradamus called. He want's his job back. You can keep the funny hat though.
Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #154
  • Nov 12, 2010 4:51am Nov 12, 2010 4:51am
Quoting MuddBuddha
TICK TOCK. TICK TOCK.

I've been waiting in my bomb shelter with bottled water and canned spam!

Where's my crash? I was about to start dressing in black leather and a leg brace and cruise he highways for overturned lorrys scavenging for petrol.

Oh, Nostradamus called. He want's his job back. You can keep the funny hat though.

hahahaha priceless i almost fell of my chair when i read the last line ...
  • #155
  • Nov 12, 2010 9:17am Nov 12, 2010 9:17am
I knew you were going to find that post hilarious.

But - as I look into the future - I see that no one will believe me.

Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #156
  • Last Post: Nov 12, 2010 7:56pm Nov 12, 2010 7:56pm
Quoting MuddBuddha
I knew you were going to find that post hilarious.

But - as I look into the future - I see that no one will believe me.


so has the crash already happened then ? i cant see it myself

.
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