Monster Muncher Manual Trading Discussion: Compliments SH

Hi Steve

The template is looking even better now with the 50% levels and weekly, monthly pivots. A BIG THANKYOU for your creativity.


"These rules will apply to earliest part of the week, before price hits the outer lines:

1)If price is under weekly pivot, and under red line, go short.
2)If price is over weekly pivot, and over red line, go long."

These new rules are a big help at the earliest part of the week. On Monday I watched the GBPUSD in the London session go up through the weekly pivot & red line (30 min chart) to 156.19, then go down again. My intuition was saying take a short, but I stayed out as I had no certain clear rules for the trade as RSI was not setup.

With these new rules for the earliest part of the week, now that trade will be possible to try.

From looking at my charts now GBPUSD, GBPJPY, AUDJPY, USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDUSD, USDCHF all had good moves down with 100 pip+ gains possible on almost all of these pairs. A break of the monthly S1 on USDJPY & EURJPY provided clear confluence points with the red line too.

I turned on the EA for an experiment on Monday New York stock market open time & it took 160 pips out of the market by shorting all pairs for 1 hr that had price under the red line.

The week following Non-Farm Payrolls seems to be the best for big moves at the start of the week from my recent observation.

I found the pivot indicator from member forex11, the co-founder of "follow the bouncing pip" thread at Forex TSD.
An indicator with a different name but, its the same except its named SRwithPivs.mq4, I have attached below. Member Saxon here at forex factory who started the "Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)" thread (the thread that has helped me to learn to wait for trading targets) is using it to good effect, as part of his trading methodology.

"The most certain way to succeed is always to try just one more time."
Thomas Edison

Ian

Im trying these 3 pairs for shorts now. RSI is oversold on all 3 & they are close or over the blue ATR line. GBPJPY is at Monthly S1 & Weekly S1. GBPUSD is at Weekly Pivot & EURJPY is at Weekly S1.

I am checking a new indicator on my chart. Its from the synergy system. Its traders dynamic index & includes RSI.

Traders Dynamic Index
This hybrid indicator is developed to assist traders in their
ability to decipher and monitor market conditions related to
trend direction, market strength, and market volatility.

Even though comprehensive, the T.D.I. is easy to read and use.

Green line = RSI Price line
Red line = Trade Signal line
Blue lines = Volatility Band
Yellow line = Market Base Line

Trend Direction - Immediate and Overall
Immediate = Green over Red...price action is moving up.
Red over Green...price action is moving down.

Overall = Yellow line trends up and down generally between the
lines 32 & 68. Watch for Yellow line to bounces off
these lines for market reversal. Trade long when
price is above the Yellow line, and trade short when
price is below.

Market Strength & Volatility - Immediate and Overall
Immediate = Green Line - Strong = Steep slope up or down.
Weak = Moderate to Flat slope.
|
Overall = Blue Lines - When expanding, market is strong and
trending. When constricting, market is weak and
in a range. When the Blue lines are extremely tight
in a narrow range, expect an economic announcement
or other market condition to spike the market.

Entry conditions
Scalping - Long = Green over Red, Short = Red over Green
Active - Long = Green over Red & Yellow lines
Short = Red over Green & Yellow lines
Moderate - Long = Green over Red, Yellow, & 50 lines
Short= Red over Green, Green below Yellow & 50 line

Exit conditions*
Long = Green crosses below Red
Short = Green crosses above Red

* If Green crosses either Blue lines, consider exiting when
when the Green line crosses back over the Blue line.


IMPORTANT: The default settings are well tested and proven.
But, you can change the settings to fit your trading style.

Price & Line Type settings:
RSI Price settings
0 = Close price [DEFAULT]
1 = Open price.
2 = High price.
3 = Low price.
4 = Median price, (high+low)/2.
5 = Typical price, (high+low+close)/3.
6 = Weighted close price, (high+low+close+close)/4.

RSI Price Line & Signal Line Type settings
0 = Simple moving average [DEFAULT]
1 = Exponential moving average
2 = Smoothed moving average
3 = Linear weighted moving average

Ian

GU and GY are both close their 38% retrace mark. I'm still way bearish on GU. 1.49XX is my down target on this one. Lets see... Good luck on those trades Ian!

149 for GBPUSD is a nice target Steve, thanks for the heads up on that one.

All 3 trades were losing at first, now slightly positive pips.

Im learning its really good after I have set my SL & TP to walk away & check the trades a few hours latter.

If I watch the trades I can close them out early before they hit the SL if they are losing, Or I can close the winners out too early before they hit the TP which is bad as it is producing a right or wrong mentality.


I have learned that a good trade is if I execute it correctly and follow the rules. Trading the probabilities over a series of trades with a clearly defined edge.
Mark Douglas.

Transferring knowledge into skill is the hard part with the result of good execution on every trade.

I did make one execution error in that I opened the GBPUSD trade before the blue line was hit.

On another note I like the TDI indicator as it looks to be based on RSI & Standard Deviation. I personally will not use anything else from the Synergy system.
Its easy to fall into the trap of relying on indicators, as I can easily do rather than learning to understand PRICE ACTION.

Ian

The only further change I want to suggest, in light of this last weeks activities, is in the entry method on retrace trades.

Retrace trades are potentially hugely profitable. This week has shown that on mulitple pairs. The problem with them is that you can't be sure to what extent they are going to draw down before making their gains, so they're difficult to trade, difficult during entry time.

The levels I set on the fibs hold up very well-but to those which I have suggested adding, I will suggest one more: -0.1704. This is half way between 0 and -34.09.

What I am going to be doing starting next week is placing entries at the point where I get my signal with 40% of my normal trading size. If I draw down to the next fib level I will enter another 40%. And if I draw down to the third level, the last 20%.

So if I get a signal at the 0% fibo, I'll go in with .4, then if it draws down to the -17%, I'll enter with another .4, then if it draws down to -34% fibo, I'll enter with the last .2. This will make the drawdown more tolerable when it occurs.

The other thing I would suggest to anyone trading retrace is to do your homework over the weekend on the 4hr TF and try to isolate any important trendlines that price might be targeting on pairs that you trade. This way if you see an important trendline at the -34% fibo, you know to hold up your entry until that point.

Otherwise, the best way that I can see to trade it, is to step into it.

Hi Steve

GBPUSD, GBPJPY & EURJPY returned a total of 175 pips. My total was 400 pips for the week for this excellent system. My best in forex to date.

I tried an idea with RSI. I loaded RSI periods 6-24 in different colours on the indicator chart window with yellow being RSI 14.

Its the same idea from a template that I like from member Spudfyre "Spuds Stochastic Thread Theory" thread here at Forex Factory.
The idea is explained in the 1st ten posts of that thread and also in the thread.

I have uploaded 2 templates one has the stoch included just for comparison with the original idea.

AUDJPY is at an interesting place at the monthly pivot with RSI oversold, I will be watching it carefully.

Hi Steve

I was searching high and low this weekend to find a fibs indicator that I liked & also that is easy to change the levels on from inside the code after reading your last educational post on retrace entry strategy & your other fib levels posts.

The levels look nice for this indicator on the gbpusd 1 Hr chart I have posted.

member cobraforex stated :

"OK, let’s talk one moment about one of the indicators, The Fibonacci Pivot level indicator.
Those levels are calculated on the broker’s prior day HLC data, they are respected points where the PA may pause, bounce back or break and retest.
They are calculated on your brokers daily open and close time, now what will be the best broker time to watch them?
I have the Fibonacci Pivot indicator since more than 2 years on my chart and found it absolutely best on GMT London time (ex. ODL, IBFX etc.)

All TL, HL, pivot and Psych lines work well because they are seen and respected by traders, not only retail traders like we are. They take profit, set SL or simply buy and sell at those levels, that’s why they are working.

Now why London time? London moves the biggest part of the FX cake.

I highly recommend not changing the Pivot indicator that is standard on the THV chart; it is very accurate."

anyway there is six numbers for the levels in the code as shown below.


double r3 = p + (R * 1.000);
double r2 = p + (R * 0.618);
double r1 = p + (R * 0.382);
double s1 = p - (R * 0.382);
double s2 = p - (R * 0.618);
double s3 = p - (R * 1.000);

I put these numbers in the code in the indicator posted below to try.

double r3 = p + (R * 0.5500);
double r2 = p + (R * 0.3409);
double r1 = p + (R * 0.1704);
double s1 = p - (R * 0.1704);
double s2 = p - (R * 0.3409);
double s3 = p - (R * 0.5500);

chart attachment gbpusd1 shows the changed levels.

Any thoughts appreciated for what numbers to put for these levels from the numbers you have posted already on fib levels?

Ian

Hi Ian,

I honestly wouldn't know how to get those levels to match the ones I specified for the fibs. I'm not sure if there is a way to. I just use the fib tool. High/low of the week to contact with green/blue lines. Sorry I couldn't be more help with that one. I wish it all could be easier too, . Good luck this week!

Congrats on the 400 pip week Ian, btw, thats a great accomplishment. Hopefully we can rack up even more now that type 1 trades have been revised for more trading.

AJ is bouncing between its Daily TL's, and has broken up through the 4hr TL resistance. Here is the most likely scenario I see for this pair at the moment. Anything can happen though. I try to limit the extent that I speculate on what a pair will do inasmuch that I want to know weather or not its likely to be a big mover for the week, or something that is going to be mainly caught up in a consolidation phase. MM will catch true bear and true bull moves well, but most likely keep us out of consolidation trading, at least with present rules. We'll see what we'll see, eh?

Hi Steve

There was intervention I think this morning on all the JPY pairs, they went up at first. Then around lunch time here in Japan all of them started dropping. On the 5 min chart the Red ATR line was nicely placed where CHFJPY, GBPJPY, EURJPY and AUDJPY all started dropping from. The drop started so quickly I did not enter I was too late I thought by the time I seen it. Now all these 4 pairs are 100 or more pips down for the day.

I managed to find a weekly/monthly pivot indicator that is the same as Pivot Auto Pirate. It is loading correctly when the template is loaded.
I have attached it for the thread.

Many pips to you this week Steve.

Ian

Strange opening this week. Price is moving straight across the red line on nearly every pair.

pipsacker

Too much steep early selling, making it tough to gauge. I got shook out on GY before it fell again. Way it goes sometimes, I guess.

I just made 200 pips between AJ, NJ, NU, EU and GU. Now up 4% on the week. Only wish I held onto the GY trade.

Obviously when the lines are this steep crossing the red line doesn't mean as much. After I got stopped out on the GY trade I decided to hold AJ even though it crossed the line.

A lot of these pairs aren't going to hit the green line this week, its too steep. NU might. Retrace will be tough.

Possible bear flag forming on Eur/Aud.

Hey Stevefx,
Thanks again for introducing your setup in the RTFG thread, & here.
I haven't started using it much yet since my broker is about 3 hrs off the GMT time as you can see in my screen shot with the clock indi installed.
Was wondering why exactly did you move away from your original SHI channel setup in favor of this one too.
I usually watch renko range bars charts during the week but when I tested SHI channels, along side zigzag channels, and demarker trend lines, I was able to do about 500 pips in a trade simulator on 4hr chart which covered just a few days on one pair/cross. Guess I should have saved my test results so I could post them here.
Posted screen shot just to show a nice long signal with your setup I missed very early this morning on eurchf, & to compare the SHI & zigzag channel indis with yours.
May keep an eye on it for a potential sell signal soon.

Hi Fxguy. Thanks for stopping by and posting. There wasn't really any reason in particular I moved from SHI with Pivots to this, except I became interested in period studies, started experimenting with price averages and ATR, mentioned my ideas to Steve H and he became interested in programming it. After that it required a certain amount of time for study and further development.

Last week this this system would have returned over 2400 pips on the 12 pairs I'm watching with current rules. This week was weird with all the early selling but it still grabbed around 1100 to 1200 pips between the 12 pairs, on the initial movement of the week. We're into round 2 of retrace now, some overshooting, but we'll see.

SHI is great though, with a lot of potential. I can't go back to do further work on it until I'm satisfied I've made the most of this system. We're getting there! Keep up the great work, looks like your solution with zigzag and demarker is working out really well!

Your welcome...

Sounds good, figured it must be pretty good to catch Steve H's attention.
That's a lot of pairs to watch, how often would you look at them with this setup on H1 charts, and when do you start & end your trading day?
Do you start @ NY open 8am EST, & scan through the H1 charts every 15 to 30 mins for example?

Monday at 3pm Est is the first important time to watch, when the first projections on the 1hr charts come in. You want to get in on those first positions as early as possible. These are trades under/over the red line and also under/over weekly pivot. Or if it doesn't look good immediately then keep an eye on them from 3-8 Est on monday. I just look through the pairs to see which set-ups look best-don't have to follow them all, all the time.

Then it cycles into round 1 retrace, and possibly round 2 retrace. You just need to be watching during these transition times. Usually you can get everything done in two days, movement out plus round 1 retrace. Moday, Tues, done. Round 2 retrace gets into Wed.

Usually two or three days work a week, this is all.

sorry Steve,
I am new here.... and your system looks good .....
tell me does Steve's bot working well ???

cheers


ps. sure I will look better this strategy...and try bot

tell me please , should I use 1H or 30 M charts???


cheers

and yes, thanks very much for shearing ....



cheers