GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

So sorry IBKA, I mistook you for someone else.
( I used to correspond regularly with a very experienced trader who used the moniker "IBK". He resides in Scotland ).

Your short usd/cad looks good, you should be in profit as I type.I am in it myself @ 10661, looking for 10425 ( hopefully by end of week ), then 10240.

I don't have a problem sharing the sys I use, but I don't think I have time to make a commitment like that. I trade full time, and coach a few traders.
I don't consider myself a mentor, don't have the temperment for it. Rather, I let 3 or 4 aspiring traders "look over my shoulder" so to speak as I work.

It has been nice meeting you. Best of Luck.

Chris

‘Hmm, what, the rest of the world works differently… mon dieu!’ You see, it’s like that where I live. I expect to return to pastures bathed in the fading hues of what has been a rather pleasant summer, measured paces of life, and the two hour lunch ritual. The last of these pre-requisites for the ‘good life’ is an institution practised by the restaurant near my little piece of earth. So much so, that you can forget ‘doing lunch’ in the only place that serves food for a good radial arc – it is closed for lunch. The idea of a power lunch in these parts is to park the tractor next to the hay bales, and then extract the cork form any 2000 Bordeaux vintage. And therein lies the hurdle that Christine Largarde ostensible chooses to ignore. Culture.

As Ministère de l'Économie, des Finances et de l'Industrie, my good lady – always beguiling in presentation, and non-verbal mannerism (hey, shoot me, I have a soft spot for women in power) – states that the French economy will expand by 2% next year. This is in contrast to the 3.2% predicted at the beginning of this year, and less again in gap from predictions made even earlier. Well, you can’t blame the girl for remaining optimistic, but she really needs to get of Paris and take a look around. Chrissy also expects that the recent measures of austerity will see the budget deficit reduced to 6% from 8% GDP. Hmm, for those not accustomed to the French way – you fire a public sector worker at your peril. Many a former minister has tried to tell the peasants where to go, and what usually happens is that the minister’s head is put on the block for the chop, so to speak.

A more realistic expansion of economic growth is issued from sources elsewhere – the money men running the banks. There seems to be a universal acceptance that France will be lucky to realize 1%. Whether this takes into account a very possible drop in the amount of export to Germany – France’s largest trading partner within the EU, and a partner expected to soon to be suffering from a contraction in import – is not clear. However, what is clear is that France is running a budget deficit per month that is approximately 3 billion Euros.

Depending upon source, Greek banks owed France up to 20% of GDP at the beginning of the Greek meltdown. A similar percentage is also applicable to Spain’s debt to France. French banks are owed nearly 500 billion Euro from the PIGS. That’s a lot of zeros. No wonder Nicolas Sarkozy threw a tantrum earlier in the year with Angela Merkel and insisted on a bailout for Greece, or a French opt-out from the Euro. Professor Niall Ferguson, an economic historian at Harvard University, has made some rather prescient comments regarding the situation is Europe. To paraphrase; the bailout was nothing to do with altruistic purposes, but atavistic intent. Pas Liberté, pas égalité, pas fraternité…

A recent interview in the Financial Times cited my good lady thus: ‘It is realistic, and prudent’, when referring to the budget deficit goals. Well, if you do what you have to do in order to reach this goal, I fear it will be into your own net. Gallic ambivalence prevails when the pace of life outside of the arrondissements of power potters along. But woe betide they who try to stand in the way of this juggernaut of tradition. If you think the productivity of France is sluggish now, forget not how much slower it becomes when the bellicose defiance to being told what to do is stirred. This is something not lost on Barko Sarko, and why he steps with caution, lest the power of union call forth the peasants of people protectionism.

There does seem to be a separation in comments made by Chrissy and Sarko. Staying with the doyen of finance, my good lady told the FT, in response to the recent good figures out of Germany: ‘I don’t think we should be short-sighted’, no, we shouldn’t, Chrissy. ‘It is obvious that in 2009, because of its structure, Germany took a much bigger hit than France. It is hardly surprising that they would catch up faster, but that is only due to the fact that they went down farther.’ Erm… yeah, whatever.

It must be galling for the Germans to see how their productivity helps to keep the Euro afloat, and by extension, the French employed at a pace that makes a mockery of the EU budget apportioning. Nobody can blame the French for expecting things not to change, they pay the taxes they are told will maintain their way of life, and buy French manufactured cars, foods and clothes. But as mentioned before, as the payments of interest on the loans to the PIGS starts to go into arrears, France is going to have face hard choices. Not least of which will be the cessation of state subsidies to agricultural, manufacturing and energy sectors in France. This fall from the good life may well please many in Germany; often cited as accusing France of abusing the EU and taking all the good stuff – free money from the EU pot - whilst expecting Germany to catch the slack in a sort of continued war reparations punishment. I think France needs to tread a cautious route, for if the EU was to disintegrate, she would be left alone with a population that expects expensively maintained roundabouts and town flower beds, with no further increase in taxes.

Hi Stocky,

Yes, stayed there quite a few years ago, so know the place. Trouble is, Hyatts are not as plentiful as Sheratons, Marriotts etc, and so switched some time ago to staying in Sheratons... it's all about the points, which translates into more choice of free nights for the wife and I when pottering around on holidays.

Rappongi... the less said about men in funny cartoon costumes and prolonged exposure to the vices that break many a man, the more able one is to retain a level of reputation conducive to that becoming of a gentleman.

I, for one, would be very interested if you could expand upon your discussion from posts such as these:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=445

Thanks for the kind words... would hope I do not bore people too much.

Hi Chris

You may have corresponded in the past with a chap called 'Ibuks', who's first name is also 'Ibukun', and he's based up in Scotland (I contacted him when I saw the profile name 'Ibuks' too as I thought it was the only other person in the UK to share both my first and last name, but works in the finance industry).

I've never met anyone from this forum before, but view them as mentors only because of what I learn through reading their posts, asking questions of them, and learning from their responses.

Mentorship, whether you simply let a few look over your shoulder or share your system and views for the multitude to share, is not about temperament, it's an 'attitude', and I'm sure the few who you let look over your shoulder view you as their mentor.

Good luck to you also, and if you feel like sharing your system here, then I'm always willing to learn new things.

I'll be pleasantly surprised if we touch 1.043 by the end of this week on the loonie i.e. break the weekly open and weekly low by Friday? Would be nice, but I think the Swissy's kindof due some respite soon (maybe from 1.0060), & will this be a result of $ strength rather than any SNB intervention. If $ strength, then might we see one last fakeout for the loonie? I'll hold this trade to completion this time, as I allowed myself to be talked out of buying the loonie from 1.0120 last month, & won't make the same mistake this month with this particular trade, i.e. either get stopped out or hold till the target's hit!

i

Welcome to the thread Digger....Nice clear analysis.

Stocky

Thanx man , I will try and not get in the way of you big dogs lol.

The reasoning behind waiting for a break of 1.538 to go short, or 1.572 to go long as I just deemed 1.572 to be a strong resistance, and 1.538, conversely a strong support. We were at around 1.55 when I made the comments, and I was just asking why wait till a break for 1.538 before shorting rather than short from 1.55x where we were then, since I felt we might simply break this, go down by 30 to 70 pips to 1.5350 or 1.5304 and then reverse. Same for if we'd gone North, I wasn't sure whether, if we'd 'broken' 1.5720, we wouldn't have simply gone up by another 30 pips then come tumbling down again, so was just questioning the reasoning behind waiting till we went up/down so far before taking a decision.

Was also asking why cable tends to rise in the first 2 weeks in September then fall in the 3rd week, and Sinner's explanation answered that for me. I got burnt a bit last September, being my first year of trading, and when I analysed the reason behind my decision to take the trade I took then (hindsight!), and went through the history in MT4, discovered the 3rd week in September has historically been a week when cable's just dropped like a stone for some reason - not saying this will be the case this year, rather just asking for a reason, which Sinner's kindly explained.

Finally, he's rightly identified the fact I try to buy low and sell from the top, where I can as I've come to understand I don't have to be in the market all the time, and the best possible position one can be in is to be in 'profit', be it whilst flat waiting for an opportunity, or having bought or sold at the right value.

I'm green (well 'brown') with envy over your trip to Japan btw!

i

Well let's not just sit around and talk about it, this is a cable trading thread isn't it?

Aug-Sep 2007:

Aug-Sep 2008:

Aug-Sep 2009:

Aug-Sep 2010:


I don't purport to know any specific answers, but it is an interesting pair of months to look at. Specifically from the view of August as the run-up to large decrease in Open Interest across futures and options (apparently, OTC FX Options are the most liquid options in the world) which would represent hedges and speculative trades ending or being rolled into the next set of contracts. 2007 would be the odd one out if you wanted to group them.

The board looks like this, at least for the stuff traded on CME (few days old but the bit I screenshot is still the same):



I was happy with my sell stops last night for a few pips to exit this morning during Tokyo


I think it's only fair since we obliged 45Cs request, that he oblige us with a dazzling photo or ten.

Last week's Weekly Pivot was 10417 ( USD/CAD ), and it was not touched.
This pair has a very high percentage of hitting it's pivot points, ie; Daily and Weekly. It is a bit of a way to the target. However, Friday is NFP, usually a great catalyst.

Yesterday's ( missed ) Daily pivot is @ 10557, which we should see today or tomorrow. ( I use a 20 pip "buffer " to compensate for differences in trading platforms, data feeds etc. ).

I use these pivots for targets, not for entry. They have the highest probability ( 94.9%, and yes this was extensively tested on thousands of trades and compiled on spreadsheets by my friend and colleague Rob Booker ) with the GBP/crosses. And I have found them to work well with USD/CAD. ( No data available, just my own backtesting ).

I have an EA ( free ) which plots and keeps the weekly and daily pivot points on your MT4 charts. As well as R1,R2,R3 S1 S2 and S3 levels ( there is a different scenario that occurs when an R3, or S3 level is broken ).
PM me if you want it.

Chris

I sure do need a weekly pivot calculator as I work from a naked chart and still have unfilled pending entries missed by a handful of pips. Hoping a calculator will help with this, plus your '20 pip buffer' suggestion here (see I've learned something already from you...)

i

Attached three pivot calculators, that I sometimes use on the same chart.

At first, lots of lines, but I edit the colours in the indicator such that only the main pivot has colour, the rest I state as none. I cannot edit these indicators.

So, chart 1 with no colour changes, chart 2, once finished.

Hope this helps, and that others could edit accordingly.

...now, now. And compromise myself - no, ladies and gentlemen.

Anyway, not long before my flight, so further hot air will probably be submitted via the blackberry.

Good stuff, and pleased to see you exited this morning because once we started heading lower on Monday, and created the monthly low on the last day of the month, I was just a bit concerned they might just take us a few pips below last month's low today to create an initial monthly low, then start the northbound run till the 3rd week in September or thereabouts, before we suddenly fall again (if history repeats itself this year that is).

I went long at 1.5346 when we dropped earlier, with SL already moved to break even, just in case they do intend to take us back up to 1.55 or even higher, over the rest of the trading week.

i

Cheers 45C, for the indicators and hope to see those pics soon!

Right, off to the gate.

Have a good day everyone.

EU - pff, SL based on another chart not submitted earlier, but looking decidedly shakey as a trade that will survive this upmove... unless of course this is mark up for the ADP.

We shall see.

Here is what my charts look like with the pivot point EA I use.

The light blue lines are the Daily Pivots, the orange lines are the Weekly Pivots. The Red lines are R3 and S3.
The points will stay on your charts making it easy to check for "Missed" pivots.
The "Radar Screen" in the upper right corner tells me how long and how far price has been away from the 800 SMA.
In the lower left corner is the "Magnified Market" custom indicator. Comes in handy for old dudes like me that can't see that well. :nerd:

I am using the usd/cad chart because IBKA and I discussed it earlier.

While I was entering the above post, usd/cad hit S3.
All sorts of interesting possibilities.

Sorry, I will have to look for or start a usd/cad thread.
Thank you for your patience.

Well, arrived home to find short stopped out:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=462

Ah well. Should have followed rule for trading the 4hr:

Let price fall back down through MAs. Not, assume that it will do...

Hope all are well.

Right, off to the garden with a small rose. IbkA, hope the pivots are useful. If you can edit them such that all other lines have no colour, and be able to save this as such, I would much appreciate a copy.

Hello matey, long time no see...

Welcome back and thnx for defending my gender the other day. Aahhhhh, just because I don't participate in D*** Swinging contest means I am a girl, jeez.

Anyhow, hope all is going well. Regarding pound, it's ranging as there is no real interest of buyers or sellers. Instead commodity based currencies and Euro is taking the shine this week. All depends on news. This news week is AU dominated so AU, Kiwi, euro will be volatile. Hence presenting good trading opportunity.



Ta
Ams