Planetary Cycles Trading (EUR/USD)

I've been watching this thread, pretty interesting. I'd be interested in learning more about it.

Is like Astrology and Elliot waves, it fails Popper's falsification test.

Hi guys,

I am kind of out of it for a while.
Was not happy with my broker so swithing accounts.
Looks like I am missing some nice moves.
I had Aug 24 as a turn date based on Gann SQ9 looks like we have a couple of bull days left on euro crosses.

Anyway, hope to be back in action soon.

Hi to all.
No, the thread will not calm down. Simply at everyone the life, the affairs and not always is a free time.
At this forum it is a lot of helpful information which demands judgement and check, it as occupies time.

Hi, All

Just a heads-up. Expect a tumble after the Labour Day weekend.

Good luck all.

what's that : Popper's falsification test ?

That depends on what criteria you use for Astrology and EW and how you use Astro and EW in your trading.

I know of a moon declination model that is accurate over 90% of the time. But you need to know how to apply it, where to put a stop, entry and exit.

At the end of the day it is the Money Management skill that will determine on how profitable you will be. Finding a direction, short or long term is only one part of the equation.

The following it from a site implementing some trading method i have no knowledge off, can't comment on it. Why I quote it is because the author at least has the insight to realize that elliot, gann, fib don't work.
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Evidence based technical analysis (EBTA) is dedicated to the proposition that technical analysis should be approached in a scientific manner. This implies several things. First, it is restricted to objective methods that can be simulated on historical data. Second, the historical performance statistics produced by such back-testing are then evaluated in a statistically rigorous fashion. In other words, profitable past performance is not taken at face value but rather evaluated in light of the possibility that back-test profits can occur by sheer luck. The problem of lucky performance is especially pronounced when many methods are back-tested and a best method is selected. This activity is called data mining. Though data mining is a promising approach for finding predictive patterns in data produced by largely random complex processes such as financial markets, its findings are upwardly biased. This is the data mining bias. Thus, the profitability of methods discovered by data mining must be evaluated with specialized statistical tests designed to cope with the data mining bias. EBTA employs such methods.

EBTA rejects all subjective, interpretive methods of Technical Analysis as worse than wrong, because they are untestable. Thus classical chart patterns, Fibonacci based analysis, Elliott Waves and a host of other ill defined methods are rejected by EBTA. Yet there are numerous practitioners who believe strongly that these methods are not only real but effective. How can this be? Here, EBTA relies on the findings of cognitive psychology to explain how erroneous beliefs arise and thrive despite the lack of valid evidence or even in the face of contrary evidence. Cognitive psychologists have identified various illusions and biases, such as the confirmation bias, illusory correlations, hindsight bias, etc. that explain these erroneous beliefs.

Thus EBTA relies on computerized methods for identifying patterns, and combining evidence into useful trading signals. Due to recent advances in computing and data mining algorithms it becomes possible for the modern technical analyst to amplify their research efforts and find the real gold. In other words, EBTA advocates a synergistic partnership between technical analysts and data mining computers to expand the valid base of knowledge called technical analysis. The union of humans and intelligent machines makes sense because the two entities have different but complimentary information processing abilities. Whereas human intelligence has a limited ability to engage in complex configural reasoning, which is required to identify valid predictive variables and combine them into a mathematical function, it can pose questions and proposed candidate variables. Whereas computer intelligence is ill equipped to pose questions and propose variables it has enormous capacities to identify relevant predictors and derive optimal combining functions.

However, this new approach to technical analysis will require that human technicians abandon some tasks they now do and learn a new set of analytical skills. While they will no longer try to subjectively evaluate complex information patterns, they will need to learn about the kinds of data transformations that produce variables that are most digestible to data mining computers. They will also need to learn which data mining approaches are most viable and which types of problems are most amenable to data mining.

David Aronson is the author of "Evidence Based Technical Analysis"

Anything can be claimed, I can't disprove your assertions. Create a stocktwits.com account and provide live real-time trades, then i will listen.

Hi, StephanusR

You said that you didn't understand the methods that author tested, then do you understand the whole falisification proposition and relevant arguments?

One simple question for you: mathematics is considered as the purest science in academia. It has no qualms with falsification. Then is mathematics the answer in trading and does it solve all the problems and model human behaviour?

Quantative programs are part of the equation that has caused all the financial mass. And after the crisis in the last few years, Quant Funds have dropped vastly and clients withdrew their money. How does that go with falsification?

(Don't get me wrong. I understand Karl Popper's work perfectly, for academic and professional reasons. And in academia, he and his work are not 'truth', though the outside world tends to think so.)

EW and Fib et. are all very subjective, depending on how one employs and interprets data. The EBTA proposed by that author is, by his own description, no less subjective than those he criticised. In fact, the whole passage is just an oxymoron. Market behaviour stems from human behaviour. It is a matter of patterns. Using what and which methods to identify patterns is not an absolute science. Quant models needs straightforward beauty that doesn't fit with human behaviour. Data mining is in fact rather the same as EW and "a host of other" methods.

If in doubt, I would like to suggest you look up the term 'data mining'. Then perhaps you will see the irony there.

I have a feeling that you are one of those persons who won't listen, no matter what and that is okay. Doesn't make me lose any sleep at all.

If anyone is interested:

http://mises.org/daily/3229

good reply .

Hi Oshawa,

EW is a contrarian method and Gann cycles also work best if few people know about it.
That means that the less people are convinced about the working of EW, the better it is for the EW users.

In that light it is beneficial to not convince people like StephanusR. As a matter of fact, the more of people like StephanusR the better for us.

So to all you nay sayers, please stay critical to everything especially "non scientifical" methods like Gann or Elliott.

Non-scientifical between quotes because Gann and Elliott thought they actually were scientifical methods based upon "Natural Law", but that is subject to discussion.

hey man cycle trading thread?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...06#post4001206

There you go!

More sophisticated tools than you offer are already available for plotting different planetary phenomena on price background but nobody in the world proved an ability to make money by using geo-cosmic cycles

http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/8954/astroelitemt4.gif
http://img94.imageshack.us/img94/421/astroelitefin.gif

I not sure who you are addressing here but as far as I know nobody is offering any tools here.
As far as the use goes: in your first picture, does nothing stand out there, you don't notice anything?
Second pic, again don't notice anything?

Yes for sure it does not work if you don't understand it, like anything it need to be applied correctly. You are more than wecome to use your rsi and stocastic indicator, because they don't work either.

A lot of traders come here looking for the answer to nail the exact pip for their entry, and trade $20 per point with their first $500 account.

Trading is about getting the conditions for a trade with the odds in your direction, then trading. No matter what you do some trades will fail. How you handle those losses will make you a winner or loser.

No astro event is perfect however, I have called a couple of tops and bottoms using them and so has I love pipping. The reason that I don't call more is that no one gives you credit or thanks for it.

That being said I think the AUD has topped.

Good luck


Mike

I not sure who you are addressing

I mean different astrology-like indicators and verbal recommendations about retrograde planets, Sun ingresses, lunations and others alike mentioned in this thread. All that stuff have been studied and analyzed many years ago and didn't prove any use.

The same about W.D.Gann methods. Read A.Elder's 'Trading for a living' p.23 (Market gurus/Dead gurus) for details.

http://astroelite.com/aefrm/pics/eld...-dead-guru.jpg