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Nanningbob 4h trading system ver. 5.0

  • #1,341
  • Aug 31, 2010 8:44pm Aug 31, 2010 8:44pm
Quoting astral77
The conventional wisdom says do not try to guess the end of the trend. This is very much true with any system. With Bob`s system we are trying to identify the end of the trend and few times a month we are not correct in this endeavor.

HOWEVER and IMHO this is a crucial point, what distinguishes Bob`s system is that he accepts and predicts this fact and through his observations of the markets he predicts that between the point of entry and continuation of the trend there is always a big enough retrace for the 2-4-2 or 1-1-3-3 recovery to achieve...
With the latest CHF run, every one is eyeballing it, no chance of missing the recovery, in fact since the last post eurchf has moved up 50pips .... i am almost to BE using a variation of 242 .....
  • #1,342
  • Aug 31, 2010 9:38pm Aug 31, 2010 9:38pm
Quoting astral77
The conventional wisdom says do not try to guess the end of the trend. This is very much true with any system. With Bob`s system we are trying to identify the end of the trend and few times a month we are not correct in this endeavor.

HOWEVER and IMHO this is a crucial point, what distinguishes Bob`s system is that he accepts and predicts this fact and through his observations of the markets he predicts that between the point of entry and continuation of the trend there is always a big enough retrace for the 2-4-2 or 1-1-3-3 recovery to achieve...
The false assumption is we have to get back to the original entry point. We do not. We only need to get partially the way back to BE. Once you understand this negative DD dont bother you as much. Again people who think in one in one out have great difficulty understanding and comprehending the recovery system. In a 400 pip DD you can think in 1 400 pip retracement (common thought) 2 trades with a 200 pip retracement. 3 trades for a 125 pip retracement or even less if you use bigger lots. 1.1.3 allows me to get very close at 100 pip retracement on the third level.

trade 1 is at -300
trade 1 is -100
trade 3 is at +100x3 or +300

I now can take out L1 and L3 for break even and my level 2 is now only 100 pips down and I can deal with it. At this point I can bring my L1 and L3 stop losses up to BE and then see if price moves enough to wipe out all 3 levels.

If trade 1 moves to -250
L2 is -50
L3 is 150 x3 or +450
Or a profit

Somewhere between a retrace of 100-150 I have my small loss, BE, or my profit. Either way you go you do not have to get back to original starting
point. All you need is a retracement. If you dont get it you close L1 for a loss. Enter a L4 in the future and try again.

The second scenario and the one I find most common is to take the L3 to wipe out L1 and other profits to Wipe out L2 and then I dont worry about it.

The third and second most common way I handle it. Price comes back inside the BB for a couple of days and I keep picking up 25-50 pip profits off of the bounce on S/R and slowing eliminate each level.

So that is how it works. It is a trading skill and once you learn it, life becomes so much easier. Trend traders really have a hard time grasping this but it works, over and over and over and over again. thank you.
  • #1,343
  • Aug 31, 2010 9:44pm Aug 31, 2010 9:44pm
Yeah the recovery worked like a charm, getting to a BE after about only 53pips, I closed out most to zero out, and left a partial trade running to pick up some additional pips ... might as well make some money at it while the chf is moving ..

Cheers Bob
  • #1,344
  • Aug 31, 2010 10:20pm Aug 31, 2010 10:20pm
Quoting nanningbob
#4 enters whenver price is above the BB like the #1 does. This should be a #2 or #7 EA I would choose a 2.
Thanks NB,

I was confused and thought that the #4 had to come back and ma cross for an entry...

Makes since now...
  • #1,345
  • Aug 31, 2010 10:22pm Aug 31, 2010 10:22pm
We read a lot in these threads about how as retail traders we are at a massive disadvantage to professional bank traders as we don't have the information flow they do.

However I feel that the "recovery" portion of Bob's system is the main area where us as retail have an advantage of the bank professional traders.

No matter how successful as a trader you are within a bank trading floor environment, unless you are within a separated prop unit (which these days are becoming few and far between) or a spun off into a hedge fund you are going to be in your seat to primarily focus on client facilitation - of course bank traders all know that is really just management speak and everyone these traders are really proprietary traders in disguise but it does have some baring on how as a trader you are treated by the dreaded Risk Police (risk management). You are expected to facilitate bank flow and keep your positions fairly tight "letting your profits run, cutting your loses and going home relatively square....particularly ahead of data or weekends".

In Bobs system we are adding to our positions when we are 200,400 or 600+ pips offside - I am sure Scoobs will agree with me that no matter who you are within a banking environment you are going to have a difficult time convincing management that if only you could double up at 600 pips offside you will make it all back. Banks - particularly these days don't work like that....that is what hedge funds do - not "flow desks" and even hedge funds have monthly reporting and therefore peer benchmarking hanging over their heads.

I have lost count of the number of times I have had to stop traders of mine out of positions across various asset classes who were using exactly this logic only to see the position come back to flat later. But even if they were right in hindsight you just can't be risking the bank's balance sheet on "doubling up" (I know 2.4.2 isn't doubling up every position but you get the idea) on every losing position. In fact if you mentioned this as your strategy during your interview you would never have been offered a job.

In actual fact of course Bob is correct and markets do not go in a straight line and if we "average in" to our position eventually we will make the money back on a retrace.

So as retail traders as long as we position ourselves so that when we are in a recovery situation we aren't stretching our margin and therefore the trade isn't an "account ender" we will have a far better ability to sit out drawdown's that most other professional traders in the market and as I said above this does give us a real advantage over most other traders in the market.

Of course it does mean we have to be our own "Risk Police" and anyone that doesn't follow the money management guidelines does deserve to lose everything but it is nice to know we do have at least one benefit over those with more information than us.

Jono
  • #1,346
  • Aug 31, 2010 11:39pm Aug 31, 2010 11:39pm
Quoting jm2110
We read a lot in these threads about how as retail traders we are at a massive disadvantage to professional bank traders as we don't have the information flow they do.

However I feel that the "recovery" portion of Bob's system is the main area where us as retail have an advantage of the bank professional traders.

[color=black][font=Verdana]No matter how successful as a trader you are within a bank trading floor environment, unless you are within a separated...
Thanks for the insight.
  • #1,347
  • Aug 31, 2010 11:41pm Aug 31, 2010 11:41pm
Quoting Toothman
Did you guys see this? Looks like all that work to set up UK broker was a waste of time for me....
I know the USA is trying to eliminate money flight for taxes will be going up but anyone know what our alternatives will be other than getting citizenship into another country??
  • #1,348
  • Sep 1, 2010 12:05am Sep 1, 2010 12:05am
Well of the top of my head, i would incorporate a company in the Caribbean or some other island ...maybe costa rica or panama, and trade thru the company. That's just the rough idea, not sure it is viable.


Or if your wife if not American, then that's an option.

But i sure they have thought up ways to block that too
  • #1,349
  • Sep 1, 2010 12:08am Sep 1, 2010 12:08am
Quoting Tread
Well of the top of my head, i would incorporate a company in the Caribbean or some other island ...maybe costa rica or panama, and trade thru the company. That's just the rough idea, not sure it is viable.


Or if your wife if not American, then that's an option.

But i sure they have thought up ways to block that too
LOL my present wife will not let me marry a non American wife. :O)
  • #1,350
  • Sep 1, 2010 2:15am Sep 1, 2010 2:15am
Man, pleased I'm Australian. Wouldn't fancy having to have an American wife.... :-p
Aspice, officio fungeris sine spe honoris amplioris
  • #1,351
  • Sep 1, 2010 3:05am Sep 1, 2010 3:05am
"Man, pleased I'm Australian."

Knoxy...I think you should thump that Aussie $ on the head...it's running away with me at the moment....
  • #1,352
  • Sep 1, 2010 3:59am Sep 1, 2010 3:59am
man i hate when i forget to take into account the news.....
i.e. i forgot to switch off the ea for the gbpxxx pairs! ouch!(actually only gbpaud: -40 pips at the moment........ )
  • #1,353
  • Sep 1, 2010 5:09am Sep 1, 2010 5:09am
Excuse the heresy....

Screen below shows NB 4h alive and well on Tradestation clone MCFX. Just a hobby, free MCFX, free VPS why not give it a try. Starting to code the EAs, may lead to something given the far superior testing ability.

cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MCFXBob2.GIF Size: 88 KB
Aspice, officio fungeris sine spe honoris amplioris
  • #1,354
  • Sep 1, 2010 5:35am Sep 1, 2010 5:35am
Quoting Tread
Well of the top of my head, i would incorporate a company in the Caribbean or some other island ...maybe costa rica or panama, and trade thru the company. That's just the rough idea, not sure it is viable.


Or if your wife if not American, then that's an option.

But i sure they have thought up ways to block that too
That's what the Onlinepokeraffilites do....^^
Hero calls followed by margin calls...
  • #1,355
  • Sep 1, 2010 7:36am Sep 1, 2010 7:36am
[quote=nanningbob;3991711]The false assumption is we have to get back to the original entry point. We do not. We only need to get partially the way back to BE. Once you understand this negative DD dont bother you as much. Again people who think in one in one out have great difficulty understanding and comprehending the recovery system. In a 400 pip DD you can think in 1 400 pip retracement (common thought) 2 trades with a 200 pip retracement. 3 trades for a 125 pip retracement or even less if you use bigger lots. 1.1.3 allows me to get very close at 100 pip retracement on the third level.

trade 1 is at -300
trade 1 is -100
trade 3 is at +100x3 or +300

- - - - - -

One thing that I need to muster out is to take out emotion in my trading. I often take profit too early with the fear that what was layed at the table will not come back again. And this make the level 3 for me more difficult to attain.

Will someone out there post a chart what is a nice exit set-up is? Based on guidelines when the blue/or white is ahead and the two others left behind, then you may consider exiting.

Thanks,

Edd
  • #1,356
  • Sep 1, 2010 10:02am Sep 1, 2010 10:02am
Forex is like fishing
SIXTHS SCREEN indicator is like the map out to the fishing place. The thing is when you come to the fishing place you need a more detailed map.
If you use this indicator as that detailed map you will save yourself from putting out fishing gear when the map show daily high ore daily low. You don't buy when it is daily high or sell when its daily low. If you don't want to sit whit the orders out maybe for weeks.
The indicator is very good for keep orientation on the Forex fishing water. You need to zoom in the H4 card when you want to take a look at the map.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 #(T_S_R) SIGNAL Alert Alarm GMT_Shift.mq4   56 KB | 409 downloads
  • #1,357
  • Sep 1, 2010 10:28am Sep 1, 2010 10:28am
I do hope that everyone who was stuck with the nasty CHF trades managed to catch the retrace. I love it when BOB is proven right once again.
kind regards
  • #1,358
  • Edited 4:18pm Sep 1, 2010 11:02am | Edited 4:18pm
Quoting astral77
I do hope that everyone who was stuck with the nasty CHF trades managed to catch the retrace. I love it when BOB is proven right once again.
kind regards
oh man, what a relief!!!
about three hours ago i thought that this sh*t will never be weak...
now i closed most positions with green pips!
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #1,359
  • Sep 1, 2010 11:40am Sep 1, 2010 11:40am
Got out of my CHF trades with the retrace today. Bob, don't give up hope on FX Sol. UK yet. I talked to them today and they said they see nothing in the bill that will change anything for US citizens with an established UK account. They'll have an official statement for us later in the month they said. So I have my fingers crossed. IBFX seems to think we have to bring our accounts back to US so don't know why they're interpreting the bill differently.
  • #1,360
  • Sep 1, 2010 1:48pm Sep 1, 2010 1:48pm
Quoting Toothman
Got out of my CHF trades with the retrace today. Bob, don't give up hope on FX Sol. UK yet. I talked to them today and they said they see nothing in the bill that will change anything for US citizens with an established UK account. They'll have an official statement for us later in the month they said. So I have my fingers crossed. IBFX seems to think we have to bring our accounts back to US so don't know why they're interpreting the bill differently.
toothman please keep us informed I have a small ibfx account for testing stuff and it they are pulling this kind of crap then i will pull my account and go somewhere else.

thanks for posting this...
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