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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #231,261
  • Aug 30, 2010 4:16pm Aug 30, 2010 4:16pm
I'm selling from 133.25, stop loss is set at 2 pips positive =). I seriously don't see her making it past 132.00 without the Bank of England burning a pile of cash first. good luck guys
peace and love
  • #231,262
  • Aug 30, 2010 5:30pm Aug 30, 2010 5:30pm
you guys that are long panicking yet?

are you trading what you ACTUALLY see?
-or-
are you trading what you WANT to see?

analogous example of where I'm coming from:
-Bob shows Tim a picture of an apple and asks him, "What's that?" while pointing at the picture.
-Tim answers, "An apple."
-Bob slaps Tim and says, "No idiot, it's a picture" <==this is what the market does

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peace and love
  • #231,263
  • Aug 30, 2010 5:53pm Aug 30, 2010 5:53pm
possible H&S.....right shoulder might form somewhere @ weekly piv, however I'm not taking the trade regardless, staying out of yen crosses for the time being.
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  • #231,264
  • Edited 8:14pm Aug 30, 2010 7:55pm | Edited 8:14pm
Quoting gucci
trendlines must always be parrallel with each other and not all to one focus point!
babypips is an excellent place to start if you're interested in learning what trendlines are.

http://www.babypips.com/school/trend_lines.html


As far as the Yen is concerned Kan is under intense fire at the moment from Ozawa. This has eclipsed BOJ policy towards the Yen as Kan fights for his political survival.

On the surface, don't be fooled by by the lackluster market reaction to BOJ policy announcements. Monetary policy has taken the back seat to the political reshuffling that may result on September 14th. That's why BOJ is dragging it's feet and this is what everyone's watching at the moment.

An Ozawa win is an outside shot, but would have major ramifications for the Yen.

So, unless you're a Japanese political insider who knows something the rest of us don't, making any grand prediction on the Japanese Yen right now is just an uniformed guess.


.
  • #231,265
  • Edited 8:30pm Aug 30, 2010 8:19pm | Edited 8:30pm
Quoting Fudomyo
So, unless you're a Japanese political insider who knows something the rest of us don't, making any grand prediction on the Japanese Yen right now is just an uniformed guess.
Well I'm finding that out right at the moment.
Took a long few hours ago @ 130.68, and it's not getting anywhere yet.
I put a tight stop @ 130.40 so if that's taken out it is not a big loss.

I would think we would get some sort of retrace after almost 300 pips down in 16 hours.

Shamu
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  • #231,266
  • Aug 30, 2010 8:33pm Aug 30, 2010 8:33pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Well I'm finding that out right at the moment.
Took a long few hours ago @ 130.68, and it's not getting anywhere yet.
I put a tight stop @ 130.40 so if that's taken out it is not a big loss.

I would think we would get some sort of retrace after almost 300 pips down in 16 hours.

Shamu
A retrace may be in the cards, maybe not. Look at UJ Daily.

Personally, I'd wait for a better signal to go long.
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  • #231,267
  • Aug 30, 2010 8:41pm Aug 30, 2010 8:41pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Well I'm finding that out right at the moment.
Took a long few hours ago @ 130.68, and it's not getting anywhere yet.
I put a tight stop @ 130.40 so if that's taken out it is not a big loss.

I would think we would get some sort of retrace after almost 300 pips down in 16 hours.

Shamu
Really have to be careful around this area. ATM the only thing that seems to be supporting the carries is the DJIA psych level at 10K. We've already had a dip below it and the only reason we didn't close out last week in a serious shitstorm was due solely to Bernanke's yakity yak.
  • #231,268
  • Aug 30, 2010 8:42pm Aug 30, 2010 8:42pm
Quoting Fudomyo
A retrace may be in the cards, maybe not. Look at UJ Daily.

Personally, I'd wait for a better signal to go long.
Thanks for your comments. I value your opinion.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #231,269
  • Aug 30, 2010 8:43pm Aug 30, 2010 8:43pm
gj 1hr broken to the downside and sitting on 61.8 .

Also daily looking very bearish.Will not take longs until I get a clear confirmation.Why fight the daily trend ?????????
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  • #231,270
  • Aug 30, 2010 8:56pm Aug 30, 2010 8:56pm
Quoting Fudomyo
So, unless you're a Japanese political insider who knows something the rest of us don't, making any grand prediction on the Japanese Yen right now is just an uniformed guess.
.
Maybe, maybe not. We can note that not only has intervention failed in the past on almost all occasions by BoJ and other CBs (as BoJ pointed out themselves recently, without a concerted intervention by multiple CBs intervention will fail) - we can also note that each intervention is costing more and working less and less as market forces and simple mathematics take over. The SNB managed to take on roughly 45% of their countries GDP in EUR denominated forex reserves as they tried to stem the tide and they failed.

Look at the Nikkei. If you watch the Ichimoku, it was signalling pain to come early last week between 9600-9400:
http://www.aussiestockforums.com/for...7&postcount=70

This is the same sort of signal which the Euro was raising after it pinged 1.5. Last nights price action during NY on the Nikkei around 9069 was telling. If the market is preparing for a major move down, expect the trigger to be a jump in the JPY towards 80 and an equivalent fall in the Nikkei as Japanese export companies get impaled (we are already well well below the EURJPY and USDJPY levels which BoJ defines as export stable, already causing huge stress on profit margins).

Even if BoJ want to intervene during Tokyo hours, they will have to bid USD against a crapload of Japanese exporters who show up every day now, trying to exit failed currency hedges from much higher levels.

I think there are many things we can quantify about JPY, the Japanese economy and CB FX intervention which put trades outside the scope of an uninformed guess.
  • #231,271
  • Aug 30, 2010 8:59pm Aug 30, 2010 8:59pm
yes, daily looks bearish but take a look at weekly - last week looks interesting, and more interesting is the fact that friday was not able to close below 132.10 (which is last trimester closing value).

Quoting honeybhi
gj 1hr broken to the downside and sitting on 61.8 .

Also daily looking very bearish.Will not take longs until I get a clear confirmation.Why fight the daily trend ?????????
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #231,272
  • Aug 30, 2010 9:00pm Aug 30, 2010 9:00pm
sorry longies, hope you read my post and saw the charts they'll help you out while everyone else is in a depression for the next couple years.

22 year olds should not drink, smoke b/c they live in cali, listen to hip hop, and trade forex. like dave chappelle said "you n-words don't know how to appreciate shit"
peace and love
  • #231,273
  • Aug 30, 2010 9:14pm Aug 30, 2010 9:14pm
I also trade Ichimoku and agree with your outlook of the downward pressure that it was signalling. We are seeing that play out now.

I wasn't referring to the effectiveness of BOJ policy in my comment, I was referring to political uncertainty. As a metaphor, Obama being impeached and Fed policy would have independent effects on the Dollar.

Also, it's true smaller exporters are feeling the pinch of a stronger yen, but the larger corporations have diversified globally, so are feeling the pain to a lesser degree. If this were the 1980's the strong Yen would have much larger ramifications than it does now.

Looking at GU/UJ/GY, all have downward pressure atm, so we need to see if the support areas we're sitting on give way or we get a bounce. I'm leaning bearish, but monitoring this area closely.

Best of luck with your trades,

Fudo

Quoting sinner-
Maybe, maybe not. We can note that not only has intervention failed in the past on almost all occasions by BoJ and other CBs (as BoJ pointed out themselves recently, without a concerted intervention by multiple CBs intervention will fail) - we can also note that each intervention is costing more and working less and less as market forces and simple mathematics take over. The SNB managed to take on roughly 45% of their countries GDP in EUR denominated forex reserves as they tried to stem the tide and they failed.

Look at the Nikkei....
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  • #231,274
  • Aug 30, 2010 9:16pm Aug 30, 2010 9:16pm
Quoting Scrat
yes, daily looks bearish but take a look at weekly - last week looks interesting, and more interesting is the fact that friday was not able to close below 132.10 (which is last trimester closing value).
Yes last week was a pinbar.But have to wait for confirmation for it to play.
  • #231,275
  • Aug 30, 2010 9:20pm Aug 30, 2010 9:20pm
Quoting honeybhi
gj 1hr broken to the downside and sitting on 61.8 .

Also daily looking very bearish.Will not take longs until I get a clear confirmation.Why fight the daily trend ?????????
i thought you are building long till 130.00??
  • #231,276
  • Aug 30, 2010 9:24pm Aug 30, 2010 9:24pm
I got stopped out with my long, better think next time before acting.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #231,277
  • Aug 30, 2010 9:33pm Aug 30, 2010 9:33pm
Hi everyone, may I know the differences between that two trading platform?
It is because I traded same pair, Marketiva with 10 pips lost but for Metatrader 4 I already 30 pips earning..The time difference I entered trade for both platform is just above 5 mins..
Why is it like that?
Thanks..
  • #231,278
  • Aug 30, 2010 9:39pm Aug 30, 2010 9:39pm
better look at my charts below. and no props to me, it's all God's natural numbers. IT HAS TO HAPPEN. Geppy's going to 126.25 before a hiccup please I beg you, trade what's REAL, not what you WANT to be real.

sorry but you need to get your head outta your ass (e.g. look at longer timeframes)

...I learned all this the hard way

if you want the time axis perfected you'd better study astrology, and start BELIEVE that salvation lies within. the distance between KNOWING and BELIEVING is large enough you could stuff the universe in it. the only way someone can make money off you is by putting as much time as possible between the two before you synthesize them into one fully functioning paradigm.

humans are ~70% water. electrical current is affected by the smallest changes in the water gradient (look up electro conductivity of water). thoughts are minute electrical impulses withing the antenna of the brain. we know the moon affects tides, so those other planets following their own perfect pattern around the sun do nothing? nothing at all? really? what's the definition of ignorance?

shit's getting crazy in this world, you need to wake up sooner rather than later. you feed God the numbers he WILL run the equation, for better or worse and "They" know this...
peace and love
  • #231,279
  • Aug 30, 2010 9:42pm Aug 30, 2010 9:42pm
Quoting Fudomyo
Also, it's true smaller exporters are feeling the pinch of a stronger yen, but the larger corporations have diversified globally, so are feeling the pain to a lesser degree. If this were the 1980's the strong Yen would have much larger ramifications than it does now.
Bigger exporters seem to disagree with your statement, I am not sure what you are basing those thoughts on.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2...vernment-help/
Quote
The executive said that when the dollar weakens by one yen, it reduces Suzuki's annual operating profit by Y4 billion. Suzuki expects an operating profit of Y80 billion for this fiscal year through March.
This one is great because it shows EURJPY is the real key here
"Conceding there is little Sony can do to offset the currency's impact, Senior Vice President Yoshihisa Ishida at a news conference said it would be difficult to raise TV prices, but that the company will reconsider the rate at which it lowers product prices. "We buy a lot of parts in dollars, so even if that rate moves, there isn't a huge impact," Ishida said. "However, when it comes to the euro, we really feel the foreign exchange impact and there is very little we can do about it," said Ishida."
(had to colour that one rather than quote it because it doesn't fit in the quote box)

Also:
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/...cument&src=spb

Quote
Toyota Motor Corp, the world’s largest carmaker, calculates that every one-yen gain in the Japanese currency against the dollar reduces its annual operating profit by 30 billion yen ($US355 million). Sony Corp, which earns more than 70 per cent of its revenue outside Japan, sees about one billion yen cut off its annual operating profit for each one-yen rise in the currency.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7857474.stm
Quote
However, like Sony, it said the stronger yen was taking its toll, and lowered its annual operating profit forecast to 530 billion yen from 630bn yen.
A stronger yen makes Japanese products less competitive and cuts into the value of overseas earnings.
Nintendo said its performance had been "adversely impacted by a large exchange loss due to the sharp appreciation of the yen".
Quote
Best of luck with your trades,

Fudo
You too mate
  • #231,280
  • Aug 30, 2010 9:44pm Aug 30, 2010 9:44pm
Quoting gucci
buy @ 130.36 - stop below 130.00 ( PA should not go below 130) .


limit 135.90 ( spikes upto 136.40 is possible )

reverse to shorts @ 135.90

enjoy
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